/sci/ - Science & Math

>>9173010
actual SCIENTIFIC PAPERS have actually been very consistent with their projections since the 70's. And there is a good reason to have been raising the alarm that time because CO2 has a long lag time before it reaches its maximum warming potential, so the emissions of the 70's and 80's are being felt now.

There are no comparisons to predictions of the second coming. Every prediction made in published papers has actually had some evidence supporting it for one, even if it turned out to be improved upon by better data and research later on.

Pic related for example is James Hansens model from the 80's vs observations.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/GM029p0130/summary

Here is that paper.
>Based on the climate sensitivity we have estimated, the amount of greenhouse gases presently in the atmosphere will cause an eventual global mean warming of about 1°C

Hardly alarmism or doommongering

https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_spm.pdf

This is the IPCC report from 1990. Read this and tell me it is 'prophesying doom'. If anything it is underestimating the problems faced.

>The predicted rise is about 20cm in global mean sea level by 2030 and 65cm by the end of the next century
This is not alarmist, and probably too conservative based on our knowledge now

>Under the IPCC Business-as-Usual (Scenario A) emissions of greenhouse gases.... 3°C above today's (about 4°C above pre-industrial) before the end of the next century
Again this isn't alarmism, and again, may well be too conservative

Predictions that fail are not 'swept under the rug'. For example, look at the amount of research done on the apparent 'hiatus' in warming.

https://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar?hl=en&q=global+warming+hiatus&btnG=&as_sdt=1%2C5&as_sdtp=&oq=global+warming+hi

If they were 'sweeping it under the rug' there would be no reason to do this research.

You have allowed media stories to inform your understanding of what actual projections have been.

Daily reminder that climate models have been able to predict and track global warming for decades.

I'd *love* to see someone present a successful prediction made by a model with climate sensitivity lower than 1C.