/sci/ - Science & Math

Consider only the 'concluded' rates. For example in Italy there have been 15,362 deaths versus 20,996 that have recovered of the 124,632 cases reported.
We don't know what will happen to the 71% who haven't either died or recovered.
So if you consider only those whose disease has run its course, you are looking at a 42% mortality rate.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Now project the numbers for the US: the current rate would imply as many as another 104k people will die.
The good news is, there are countless (literally, because there is no way to gather statistics) numbers of people who have/had the disease and show(ed) no or minor symptoms. Adding their recovery numbers would lower the mortality rate.