/sci/ - Science & Math

>148 replies
>nobody's mentioned birth rates

Come on /sci/, I expect better of you. It's an observed trend that as a civilisation "progresses", its birth rate falls. Before the end of this century, every country in the world will have below-replacement fertility. There are two ways this could play out:

Scenario A: perfect automation. Human labour becomes unnecessary. A comfortable and listless human population slowly dwindles into extinction.

Scenario B: human labour never becomes obsolete. The ratio of retirees to workers grows increasingly large over time, with geriatrics controlling ever more wealth and voting power. Eventually the burden becomes untenable and society collapses. Regression to a more promitive society raises birth rates, civilisation oscillates in this manner until Earth becomes uninhabitable.

In a hunter-gatherer society, the link between sexual pleasure and reproduction is self-evident; besides, from a purely selfish point of view a large family is a good idea, since they provide you with protection, welfare, support in your old age, et cetera. As society advances, it becomes better at tricking nature. The link between sexual pleasure and reproduction is progressively undermined: condoms, porn, abortions, gay pride, antibiotics for STDs, et cetera. At the same time the state takes over all the functions family once provided, meaning you have no practical need for a family and will live in more comfort if you spend your life accumulating wealth.

The conclusion is inevitable: sub-replacement fertility and a tendency towards extinction. If you live in the first world, this has already happened. Hell, if you live in an advanced province of a developing country, this has already happened. Hate to burst the bubble of your grandiose science fiction tier theories, but the Great Filter is actually you jerking off in front of a computer screen.