/sci/ - Science & Math

the monty hall program is nonsense
if you eliminate one of the doors, and one of the goats, at that point you're left with one goat, one car, and two doors. that means that both doors have a 1 in 2 chance of having the goat and a 1 in 2 chance of having the car, and the choice to swap to the other door has the same probability of getting either as the choice to stay at the same door.
i don't understand why people pretend as though the 1 in 3 chance from when you first make your choice somehow carries over once one of the doors is revealed to be a goat. the second choice is not the same as the first choice, it's an entirely new choice between two doors, one which contains a goat and the other which contains a car, and there's no reason why one door should have a higher chance than the other of having the car
pic rel summarizes everything that is wrong with how people approach the problem. they assume, for no real reason, that the 2/3 chance of being wrong at the beginning somehow translates over to your second choice, whether or not to switch which door you chose, despite the fact that the second choice only involves two doors and four possible outcomes, rather than the three doors and nine possible outcomes from the first choice

>>9223289
Then you should still switch.

There are three available choices.

Each choice has a 1/3 chance of being correct.

That means that you have a 2/3 chance of picking the WRONG choice.

After you pick a choice, a wrong choice is revealed (randomly or not is irrelevant).

There is a 66% chance that the door you can choose to switch to contains the prize.