/sci/ - Science & Math

>>14577863
There's a good chance that dysgenics and declining IQs will prevent transhumanism from happening this millennium.

https://www.unz.com/akarlin/short-history-of-3rd-millennium/

>(1) (a) Direct Technosingularity - 25%, if Kurzweil/MIRI/DeepMind are correct, with a probability peak around 2045, and most likely to be implemented via neural networks (Lin & Tegmark, 2016).

>(2) The Age of Em - <1%, since we cannot obtain functional models even of 40 year old microchips from scanning them, to say nothing of biological organisms (Jonas & Kording, 2016)

>(3) (a) Biosingularity to Technosingularity - 50%, since the genomics revolution is just getting started and governments are unlikely to either want to, let alone be successful at, rigorously suppressing it. And if AGI is harder than the optimists say, and will take considerably longer than mid-century to develop, then it's a safe bet that IQ-augmented humans will come to play a critical role in eventually developing it. I would put the probability peak for a technosingularity from a biosingularity at around 2100.

>(3) (b) Direct Biosingularity - 5%, if we decide that proceeding with AGI is too risky, or that consciousness both has cardinal inherent value and is only possible with a biological substrate.

>(4) Eschaton - 10%, of which: (a) Philosophical existential risks - 5%; (b) Malevolent AGI - 1%; (c) Other existential risks, primarily technological ones: 4%.

>(5) The Age of Malthusian Industrialism - 10%, with about even odds on whether we manage to launch the technosingularity the second time round.

>>12783676
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/nor-breeding-their-best/

Because natural selection doesn't always select for intelligence

>>11494844
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/nor-breeding-their-best/

>>11489141
Dysgenics

>>11345807
Then the Age of Malthusian Industrialism will become a reality.

https://www.unz.com/akarlin/short-history-of-3rd-millennium/

>>11337389
>I thought intelligence was evolutionarily advantageous?
It isn't.

https://www.unz.com/akarlin/nor-breeding-their-best/

>>11309274
Raise the average IQ and raise the average hedonic set point.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pno6Ir_nDAQ

>>11301927
Eugenics for better mathematical ability when?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pno6Ir_nDAQ

>>11268758
It's actually dysgenic fertility trends that will lead to the creation of untermenschen.

https://www.unz.com/akarlin/nor-breeding-their-best/

>>11159183
Smart people not having kids

http://www.unz.com/akarlin/nor-breeding-their-best/

>>11063283
It stops people from reproducing

>>10835166
Population growth doesn't mean shit when the population growth is coming from low IQ individuals.

http://www.unz.com/akarlin/nor-breeding-their-best/
http://www.unz.com/akarlin/intro-apollos-ascent/

>>10791343
>implying dumb people aren't breeding the fastest

>>10666715
>Let's hope we are breeding for the right features.
We aren't.

http://www.unz.com/akarlin/nor-breeding-their-best/
http://www.unz.com/akarlin/eloi-morlocks/

>>10637903
/thread

>>10562467
This is something that's actually likely to happen in the Age of Malthusian Industrialism scenario.

https://www.unz.com/akarlin/where-do-babies-come-from/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/breeders-revenge/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/the-geopolitics-of-the-age-of-malthusian-industrialism/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/world-population/

>>10521947
Designer babies are the only way to stop idiocracy from becoming reality.

https://www.unz.com/akarlin/short-history-of-3rd-millennium/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/breeders-revenge/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/nor-breeding-their-best/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/paper-review-icelandic-dysgenics/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/dysgenic-deutschland/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cicerone-on-dysgenic-decline/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/frito-effect/

>>10511313
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/intro-apollos-ascent/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/nor-breeding-their-best/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/paper-review-icelandic-dysgenics/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/dysgenic-deutschland/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cicerone-on-dysgenic-decline/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/frito-effect/

>>10452531
Yes

https://futurism.com/genetic-idiocracy-genes-associated-with-high-education-are-becoming-rarer/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/where-do-babies-come-from/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/breeders-revenge/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/nor-breeding-their-best/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/paper-review-icelandic-dysgenics/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/dysgenic-deutschland/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cicerone-on-dysgenic-decline/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/frito-effect/

>>10422512
Lack of Clark-Unz selection to kill off the stupid people, and the fact that dumb people are more r-selected.

https://www.unz.com/akarlin/nor-breeding-their-best/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/paper-review-icelandic-dysgenics/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/dysgenic-deutschland/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cicerone-on-dysgenic-decline/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/frito-effect/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/where-do-babies-come-from/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/breeders-revenge/

>>10415815
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/short-history-of-3rd-millennium/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/where-do-babies-come-from/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/breeders-revenge/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/the-geopolitics-of-the-age-of-malthusian-industrialism/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/not-sending-their-best/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/nor-breeding-their-best/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/paper-review-icelandic-dysgenics/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/dysgenic-deutschland/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cicerone-on-dysgenic-decline/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/frito-effect/

>>10411409
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/short-history-of-3rd-millennium/

>>10280180
Wrong. Religious fundamentalists are still reproducing at high rates. They will eventually become a majority, and create a theocratic idiocracy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjuBRaLYWnA
https://phys.org/news/2011-01-religiosity-gene-dominate-society.html
https://futurism.com/genetic-idiocracy-genes-associated-with-high-education-are-becoming-rarer/
https://www.unz.com/isteve/cochran-harpending-paper-on-amish/
https://www.unz.com/jman/liberalism-hbd-population-and-solutions-for-the-future/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/stupid-people/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/short-history-of-3rd-millennium/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/not-sending-their-best/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/nor-breeding-their-best/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/paper-review-icelandic-dysgenics/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/dysgenic-deutschland/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cicerone-on-dysgenic-decline/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/frito-effect/