/sci/ - Science & Math

>>11452494
>>11457400
>there are almost none asymptomatic carriers
Close to all of the passengers aboard the cruiseship Diamond Princess has been tested, thus giving very good indications for various properties.

Tested: 3618
Confirmed cases: 696
Asymptomatic cases: 410
Dead: 7
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_on_cruise_ships#Diamond_Princess

Indicates that [math]\approx 59[/math]% of cases are asymptomatic and a mortality rate [math]R \approx 1[/math]%. With this information we can estimate a lower bound for the number of infected world wide. Let [math]I_a[/math] be the acutal number of infected world wide, [math]I_r[/math] the number of reported infected, [math]D_a[/math] be actual number of dead and [math]D_r[/math] the reported number of dead. This means
[eqn]
R = \frac{D_a}{I_a}
[/eqn]
and
[eqn]
k = \frac{D_r}{D_a} \iff D_a = \frac{D_r}{k}
[/eqn]
for some [math]0 < k < 1[/math]. Substituting into the first equation gives
[eqn]
R = \frac{\left( \frac{D_r}{k} \right) }{I_a} \iff I_a = \frac{D_r}{Rk}
[/eqn]
Right now we have [math]D_r > 4200[/math], thus
[eqn]
I_a > \frac{4200}{0.01k} = \frac{420000}{k} > 420000.
[/eqn]