What are the odds of writing a profitable novel?

[Anonymous No.22917591]

I’ve been writing a story for a couple years now. I’ve shared my ideas with some people (some even on this board) and I’ve received pretty positive feedback. I’m interested in incorporating my ideas into a actual novel, but I’m wondering what the chances are if writing a book that is actually successful? I’m not planning on living my entire life off of one book, but I’m curious as to how difficult it is to write a novel that can be somewhat profitable?

[Anonymous No.22917622]

>>22917591

If you trad publish I think the definite statistic was about 4% odds of being profitable. If you self-publish it is probably less likely. And if you never write it and never put it out there it is zero.

[Anonymous No.22917626]

>An estimated 9 million Americans -- or nearly 4 percent of the total population -- say they identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender, according to a new report released this week from the Williams Institute, a think-tank devoted to LGBT research at UCLA.

[Anonymous No.22917629]

>>22917622
I’m debating if I should hire a ghost writer to write me the story. I hate saying I’m a “ideas guy” but I genuinely think i came up with a decent story with interesting themes, I just have a really difficult time putting those ideas into words, especially regarding dialogue with characters talking to each other. Do you think it would be a wise investment? I did the research and it seems that (depending on the length of your novel) it’s not too costly to hire a ghost writer to help you pen the story out, but I’m wondering if it’s even worth the investment in case nobody even reads it. Are there any ways to put your novel more out there for readers to give it a chance?

[Anonymous No.22917639]

>>22917591
Very small. Publishers these days are only looking for /pol/ tier caricatures of progressive issues, self-help, or shitty YA fantasy romance series. But, as anon said, if you don't write it it'll never be read or sold.

[Anonymous No.22917669]

>>22917629
I have way too much free time and I will unironically ghost write your book for you

[Anonymous No.22917682]

>>22917669
Really? How do I know you’re not gonna jew me

[Anonymous No.22917700]

>>22917682
I’ll do an excerpt rn give me any prompt doesn’t have to be from your masterwork novel idea kek

I have no aspiration to publish a book or make money in publishing it seems annoying I am merely desperate for a project as I have no personal goals motherfucker

[Anonymous No.22917702]

>>22917700
Do you have a email/discord?

[Anonymous No.22917718]

>>22917702
*raises glass*
[e-mail]

[Anonymous No.22917720]

>>22917591
Low. If you want to make money writing fiction your best hope is that it gets adapted to a movie and from there into a media franchise with more soluble revenue streams. Once they start making video games and children's toys about your fantasy series that's when you know you made it. That's a highly improbable outcome though and attributable to industrial forces that are largely out of your control.

[Anonymous No.22917725]

>>22917720
I was planning on doing something like that. I wanted to potentially incorporate my ideas into a cartoon or video game, but it seemed like writing a novel was probably the “easiest” method to get my writing and ideas out into the world.

[Anonymous No.22917727]

>>22917718
Write me a prompt about three friends by a campfire talking about their life stories in a post apocalyptic wasteland (think The Outsiders mixed with Fallout/Mad Max)

[Anonymous No.22917825]

>>22917727
Haven’t seen any of those shows but let’s give it a whirl

The shadows were as close as any Howard had ever known and the fire as yellow. John’s eyes gleaming with the helplessness of a wounded creature as he talked on and on about—mostly to himself, as the world had ceased to heed him—Susan May. That was the same too.

“And she was always saying she was going to cut that hair of hers, you know? That long, long, hair that wasn’t quite brown. She would ask me about it to be coy and it always made me wanna...” He stared uncomprehendingly into the dark beyond the fire. “My God! Do you think she cut it? I’ll just about die if she cut it.”

Morrie closed his eyes. “I’ll kill you myself if you don’t stop that noise.”

John rose from his place on the ground and stood over Morrie. He was at once imposing and on the verge of tears. “You’re a right fucking bastard.”

Morrie smiled. “And all the broads know it from here to Denver.” He raised his bottle. “I bet the loonies killed her. Right on her own front porch. Must have made the news.”

John groaned and sat back down. He put his face in his hands and began to make violent, contained notes of agony. He very much resembled a loony as his face grew long and his breaths short.

“Quiet down,” Howard murmured. “Don’t attract attention.”

He looked out above the fire, searching, but there was nothing there, save for the smoke no different than those fires of his childhood, the comfort of a small destruction.
*********
Thanks for the exercise OP, very out of my comfort zone so it was fun. I’m typing as fast as I can on a mobile for fuck’s sake.

[Anonymous No.22917839]

>>22917591
You won't get published if you aren't a minority, but I'll let you use my hispanic name for 1% of the profits. That will at least help you get an agent.

[Anonymous No.22917928]

>>22917825
Kino thanks anon. If that’s actually your email I’ll shoot you a message in a bit

[Anonymous No.22917944]

>>22917928
thank you, actually my email

[Anonymous No.22918634]

>>22917928
Where's my email the thread's about to go down
[e-mail]

[Anonymous No.22918835]

>>22917825
This language is too formal for a post apocalyptic novel, but it flows well enough.

[Anonymous No.22918887]

If I want to be read by millions of people, where should I put my story?

[Anonymous No.22919647]

>>22917639
This.

[Anonymous No.22919669]

>>22917591
>What are the odds of writing a profitable novel?
Depends on how you value your time and assuming you already have a compute and keyboard, but generally speaking if going the self publishing path and if you aren't putting a cost on your own labor then pretty high since the monetary cost of writing are extremely low.
So even making two or 3 sells has the potential to be counted as profit.

The main problem is that writing is a massive time sink and even working a minimal wage job would have likely been a more profitable use of that time from a financial perspective.

[Anonymous No.22919701]

Practically zero. Check out the OP author pastebin in /wg/ if you want to see the novel-writing authors that frequent /lit/. None of us have made it by any standard.
Also, keep in mind that a lot of famous authors were unsuccessful in their time. Marcel Proust couldn't find a publisher for volume 1 of "In Search Of Lost Time", so he self-published it...no easy feat in his time. Herman Melville had to hold day jobs during his lifetime; "Moby Dick" didn't become part of the western canon until it was reevaluated on the 100th anniversary of his birth (by which time he was long dead). Philip K. Dick, despite writing 44 novels and 125 short shtories, struggled during his life, only seeing real money after selling the movie rights to "Do Androids Dream Of Electric Sheep", which became the movie "Blade Runner", but he died before the movie was released. I could go on.
Don't let any of this stop you from writing...but you need to get over the idea that anyone will care that you wrote a book. Think of it as an effort-intensive lotto ticket.

[Anonymous No.22919702]

>>22917591
An autistic level of determination will always raise your odds above others.

[Anonymous No.22920516]

>>22918835
>too formal
Yeah I was struggling with that, usually I'm a rather formal writer

[Anonymous No.22920574]

>>22919702
>This
Don't settle for anything . Push your work out onto the world as much as you can. If you self-publish make sure you've created buzz. Save up money, pay outlets to promote your book. Ensure it's of a high enough quality to be sold in real bookstores. Ensure there's a highquality epub edition as well as an audiobook. Tap into all corners of the literary market. Network with other writers. Try and appear on podcasts or create your own. Start a YouTube channel. Don't give up and keep striving. Don't become one of those failed writers you find under popular twitter threads promoting their shitty books no one wants to read. Make sure you seize the day and make the most out of it. And if you don;t want to work that hard for it, then you likely don't care that much about it.

[Anonymous No.22920719]

Seriously, what's the point of trying to publish your work when all the future generations will be literal retarded iPad babies with no real cognitive function? I just share my writing with my friends and family, and if I have children I'll write things for them. I don't see the point in publishing unless you're a nepo baby or already have a large following elsewhere.

[Anonymous No.22920735]

books are dead
if you aren't eating glizzies, vlogging about the jan 6 insurrection or doing confrontational pranks then you are an autist in media and destined to being a povertyfag

[Anonymous No.22920771]

>>22917591
You shouldn't be thinking about profitability. You should be thinking about telling a story you believe needs to be told. Once you start thinking about profitability, getting the book published, etc, it is no longer art, and you are no longer an artist. At that point it becomes commerce, and no great personal expression can come of it.

It's easier said than done, of course. But think of it in another way: When there is a soccer match, are the soccer players thinking about 'winning' the game? They are not, or at least they shouldn't be. They are thinking about doing the right things to score a goal/stop the opponent from scoring, which is how you win a game. Similarly, if your writing is good, sincere, and the story an honest reflection of human kind without party bias or sympathy, it stands to reason it will touch all hearts and be universally appealing, which is how you become published.

[Anonymous No.22920808]

>>22917825
>shadows were as close as any Howard had ever known
>the fire as yellow
Already an unclear image. I have no idea what you mean by either of these. Close to what? Howard? How would one perceive 'knowing' closeness? Fire has various colors and shades. just yellow? What about yellow is so unique or captivating to Howard? A good author is painting a clear and concise image and this paints a vague and blurry one.
>Eyes gleaming with helplessness
Typically, something gleams when it is is struck by a bright light, and the surface is capable of capturing and reflecting that light in a unique way, based on the material. Helplessness is a dark feeling, and darkness is the absence of light: darkness can't gleam off anything. and while eye's can reflect light and it is possible to gleam off of eyes, this is an impossible image.
>wounded creature being helpless
this is fine
>talked on and on about-mostly to himself
He can't talk to and about something. It has to be one or the other. Either 'talked on and on- mostly to himself..' or 'talked on and on about-mostly himself'.
>world had ceased to heed him
The 'world' doesn't inherently pay attention to anyone, just because we are in it. This is another vague and unclear image. Does your house 'heed' you, because you are in it? Of course not.
>Susan May. That was the same too
Random transition

I read the dialogue but it's not very interesting. I'm sorry anon but you have a poor import and facility of language and even if the images in your mind are clear (which I have trouble believing), you do a very poor job in exhibiting those images through language. I would recomend you simplify your language, simple is better, especially if you are first starting out and have very little experience in writing narrative prose.

[Anonymous No.22920974]

If you go into writing knowing that basically EVERY SINGLE OTHER MEDIUM you could make art in will be more profitable... then continue

Writing is, by far, the most difficult and most challenging art form to make money on. Especially if you're not working inside the box trying to fulfill some niche or need that society pushes.

If you're a mystery meat or a non-white, write about social justice / non-white things and you will win awards and accolades based on this alone. They are participation trophies and the Canadian government set aside 500 million dollars in 2020 for this very thing.

HOWEVER...

If you are just some no-name dude with no social media and little marketing, the chance of you selling 10+ books a year is fantastically low. You would be lucky to sell to your mom and dad! Give it a shot and report back in 2025...

[Anonymous No.22920981]

If it’s not fantasy, very low. If it is fantasy, then still very low but not quite so low.

Just write the book and try to publish. You really have nothing to lose.

[Anonymous No.22920987]

>>22920735
I met a guy this holiday season while working, he makes Roblox videos for a living. He's a multi-millionaire from making Roblox videos and acting like a girl on YouTube. He just closed a deal on his 3rd luxury high rise rental to rent out.

[Anonymous No.22921014]

>>22920987
Beyond depressing story. I really can’t take this ironic clown society anymore. Please don’t tell this story ever again on this board.

[Anonymous No.22921018]

>>22920974
I find this so hard to be true. Maybe if you consider only writing fiction and/or poetry and/or drama as “writing”. The non-fiction market is huge. Many people make a living as journalists, copywriters, technical writers, many different kinds of writers. Obviously, we don’t mean technical writers when we talk about “writers” but niche non-fiction writing? Maybe.

[Anonymous No.22921037]

>>22921014
When he was telling me that he expects to hit 40k/month doing Roblox videos in 2024, I felt a familiar pang of internal pain, the same pain I felt when I mentioned to the baby momma that I'm soooooo close to finishing my 3rd book:
>"I'm sure both of your readers are thrilled"
I mean, she's right. It isn't like there is an audience for washed up, homeless meth head authors!

I can't even imagine making kid's videos in Roblox and clearing, not grossing, but clearing 40k a month on YouTube. He told me they have a formula and pay people to make the video and most of the time just dub in the other voices, so they don't even have to play Roblox anymore, just come up with the focus of the video(plot), get some remote workers to "film" the action, then dub over it and release a video that gets millions and millions of views. I didn't really feel jealous, but my eyes opened even wider to the fact that writing is such a dead medium. Who is even searching for unique voices anymore? It all gets lost in the signal VS the noise.

[Anonymous No.22921052]

>>22921018
>The non-fiction market is huge. Many people make a living as journalists, copywriters, technical writers, many different kinds of writers.
This is why I said:
"Especially if you're not working inside the box trying to fulfill some niche or need that society pushes."

There is definitely opportunity if you can find your place within the box. key words: within the box.

If you wrote about how the KKKonvoy in Canada scared transgender people and minorities, you'd get attention. If you wrote how January 6th was all MAGA folk hellbent on murder and rape and BARELY stopped at the last second from overthrowing democracy, you will get read. If you are talking about climate change and promoting that fear, you will get read.

Everything is about how much you're willing to get behind established talking points. Everything that is paid in 2024 is going to be in reinforcement of ideas already held. There is no room for new ideas, new characters, new history. When was the last time someone wrote something that inspired you?

[Anonymous No.22921054]

>>22917591
50%

[Anonymous No.22921101]

>>22917720
I can make a visual Novel game based on yo book. But the infuriating part is artworks

[Anonymous No.22921109]

>>22917591
Are you a non-famous white male? If so, 0%.

[Anonymous No.22921167]

>>22921109
You may drown in obscurity in the real world and among your peers, but we'll always be here to call you a fag and say your writing is trash <3

[Anonymous No.22922188]

>>22917825
i expected dogshit when i came on lit (first mistake of the day) but this is actually pretty good. just a bit too formal to where it seems a tad stiff at points imo. honestly good job

[Anonymous No.22922265]

>>22921037
Fuck you for telling me this

[Anonymous No.22922275]

>>22917591
>frogposter
i'd say... astronomical

[Anonymous No.22922284]

I have the perfect formula for profit.

ROMANCE + TRUE CRIME = WHITE WOMAN MONEY

Its staring you right in the face. write a book were a woman falls in love with a serial killer or vampire.

bam, thats money son

[Anonymous No.22922287]

>>22922188
Thank you, that means a lot to me. OP still has not emailed me to write an entire book for him and it is day two now.
>a bit too formal
Kek usually I am much more formal and it was a struggle to try and tone it down

[Anonymous No.22922297]

anon in the medieval ages they made paintings because people didn't read. If you want it to be profitable it has to be a comic book lol

[Anonymous No.22922315]

>>22922297
I really doubt American comic books are very profitable. Let’s be real here. It’s not that people are illiterate. They’re just lazy. It has to be a movie, show, or game.

[Anonymous No.22922320]

>>22922284
I read a thing about Yukio Mishima once that claimed he wrote most of his fiction with the intent to publish it for women consumers and in female magazines, not because he was gay and wanted to write that but because that’s who was reading fiction in his country at that time. A lot of Jap writers were writing womanly stories with female characters at that time now that I think about it.

[Anonymous No.22922323]

>>22921052
I’ve read a few pieces of journalism in the last few years which I thought were very good but all of them were mainstream institutional journalists and did the YouTube circuit before they turned to Substack and shit to strike out on their own.

[Anonymous No.22922345]

zero

[Anonymous No.22922519]

What if I just want to write something in the vain of Melville or Dickens? Surely if it is good enough it will find an audience? This isn’t the nineteenth century where good works can remain completely obscure, generally good shit rises to the top and becomes popular.

[Anonymous No.22922552]

There will be a reading counterculture in the 2030s because most of gen alpha will be illiterate and retarded. Better get to writing!

[Anonymous No.22922703]

>>22917591
How self aware you can become about the style and diction of your writing and as well the delivery of your ideas (no comma used because the first two points directly influence the third.) Yet of course boring ideas in boring settings ushered along by boring characters doesn't help either: boring meaning bland or uninspired, cliche, overly niche, or excessively purple.

You attempt to walk an invisible tightrope when you write in hopes of recognition. Yet it's only when recognized positively do you come to ever find the rope. Pray if that happens you learn how to then follow it.

[Anonymous No.22922707]

>>22922552
Haha...

[Anonymous No.22922713]

>>22917591
I'm technically profitable, even though it earned about $50