/lit/ - Literature

[Anonymous No.19056280]

Why does he insist on the invulnerability of America? It’s like he thinks it’s impossible for anything bad to happen to America ever or for it to ever weaken.
I recently checked to see if he revised any of his predictions after the Fall of Kabul but no, instead he just pushed his retarded predictions that Russia and China will collapse back twenty years. He also still thinks Poland, Japan, and Turkey will be superpowers. How is he taken seriously?

[Anonymous No.19056301]

>>19056280
>Poland
what?

[Anonymous No.19056322]

>>19056280
Humans are creatures that guide their actions based on past experience.
They are really, really bad at predicting the future, their foresight is practically non-existent.
This is why they never plan for a black swan event, they think “it worked in the past so it’ll keep working”.
There will be a paradigm shift this century that will radically alter human society and the way we look at things.
I cannot tell you what it is and 99% of people are too connected to the zeitgeist to tell you either.
Only a few bright minds are ever head of their times and can envision the future or new realities.
The most I can say is that unlike the previous two centuries, which were shaped by economic, political, scientific and technological paradigm shifts, this one is likely to be religious in nature.

[Anonymous No.19056342]

>>19056301
Exactly
>>19056322
>religious in nature
Elaborate. Isn’t Islam the only religion that still exercises a large amount of control in its cultural sphere?

[Anonymous No.19056457]

>>19056280
Shy of jingoism and expansionist, America has no hope
>produces almost no industrial goods
>majority of the economy is meme service industry
>fiat currency
>intellectual and scientific innovation dwindling and being eclipsed by China
>total cultural collapse
>polarization worse than 1850s

Its going to take someone like me to straighten this country out. Eventually gasoline will be like $18 a gallon in another 20 years with most of the population still making well under $50k. The only hope is to use the one asset we have left, the military, in a might makes right fashion. The Arab gulf states for starters will need to be threatened to give or pay to provide us oil or they'll get a nuke as a warning. All non superpowers will agree to zero tarrif trading on our trades but face steep taxes on theirs or they'll be met with wrath. Canada can be annexed and the whole of Mexico and Central America will need to be invaded to curtail all criminal enterprised and build stability to prevent migration. African counties will agree to give rights to all rare earth minerals and other commidities of value. Like it or not, overt imperialism, expansionism, and colonization is the only possible way out of this mess because we the only thing we still have is a big stick.

[Anonymous No.19056477]

>>19056280
Turkey did turn into more independent and interventionist regional power though. They've entered the Syrian Civil War, supported Azeris in their war against Armenians etc.
Poland in the way he describes it, as in a strong regional economy trying to build a block out of similar post-communist states is also something that's being attempted.

Obviously Friedman looked at some trends and tried to guess how will the history go, so he was going to be wrong, probably even more often than not, but that's just a problem of trying to be a prophet. Notably in the cases where he was right he was thinking in terms of political contingencies on top of the economic data or whatever, where he was completely wrong(Japan) it was about just the data.

[Anonymous No.19056482]

>>19056457
Yeah, good luck with that. Online Americans hate the military, they're the one's with actual cultural capital. You'll need real loss of life targeting their demographic (originating from a foreign power) to mobilize anyone. That'll never happen.

[Anonymous No.19056530]

>>19056457
There’s a 99% chance this is satire but I actually wish this happened.
Everyone, literally everyone would turn against Amerikkka and give it the ass kicking it so richly deserves.
A four pronged attack between Canadians annexing the northern states, a horde of Mexicans and Central Americans taking the southern ones, Russia, China and Japan annihilating the mutt Pacific fleet while the Eurochad coalition destroys the Atlantic one. Every other country with a shart military base in their territory would overrun it with their own armed forces and destroy it.
Amerikka would be split in no less than 20 different countries administered by the Chinese, Russians and Canadians while Spain, France, England and Mexico would regain their lost states, with maybe a few other euro countries getting a slice of the pie.
Fucking glorious.

[Anonymous No.19056585]

>>19056530
>and give it the ass kicking
the fact that you think this is possible is hilarious

[Anonymous No.19056605]

>>19056482
They'll support it when gas is $0.00 at the pump.

[Anonymous No.19056847]

>>19056585
I know the mutt education system is crap but even you should now this.
The only reason you are word hegemon because of a careful system of alliances you built with other nations post-WWII.
You can only project power across the globe because other countries allow you to have military bases on their soil, you made an alliance with European countries to form NATO against the Soviet Union.
You got your ass kicked by rice farmers in Vietnam, starving darkies in Somalia and goat herders in Afghanistan this year, now imagine how you’ll fare against the entire world if you piss them off.
The Russians, Chinese and Japanese will deny your Pacific fleet access to your west coast, the NATO countries will do the same with your east coast.
Literally all it takes to have you groveling on your knees is for Mexican and Canadian forces to secure your food supply in the Midwest, which will easy since its sparsely populated. You’ll surrender in 1 to 2 weeks because you’ll run out of gas and ammo, since you don’t have an industrial base to manufacture them anymore as acknowledged in your post and all imports will be cut off.
The hostile fleets at your coasts will prevent any of your bomber planes from reaching the heartland where the Mexicans and Canadians are, the only place where you could put up effective resistance is the cities on the coasts, but they’ll be starved out in 1-2 weeks since no food will be arriving from the countryside or from abroad.
You’ll capitulate and your country would be dismembered by the various invading factions.
I wish your leaders were as dumb enough to sperg out like you lol.

[Anonymous No.19056857]

>>19056280
american exceptionalism and disgusting hubris

[Anonymous No.19056862]

>>19056847
>sperg out
that was my first post

literally everything you typed is incorrect
if you think that america would lose in a total war scenario, you're uneducated
go back to pol

[Anonymous No.19056864]

>>19056847
You forget that we have the secret energy weapons reverse-engineered from alien technology. Good luck.

[Anonymous No.19056871]

>>19056847
A real jijgoist would release all 10k nukes even on his own country to assure mutually assured destruction. If they see the US bold enough to force former camel traders into abject submission and take over its immediate neighbors, China and Russia wouldn't mess with us. If they did, total obliteration. Simple as.

[Anonymous No.19056875]

>>19056847
I hate the mutts too but I think this is a little too fantastical to happen in reality.

[Anonymous No.19056881]

>>19056322
>There will be a paradigm shift this century that will radically alter human society and the way we look at things.
>I cannot tell you what it is and 99% of people are too connected to the zeitgeist to tell you either.
>Only a few bright minds are ever head of their times and can envision the future or new realities.
Do you think this was the case for Majorana?

[Anonymous No.19056893]

>>19056530
China, Russia and USA would be allies and carve up the world in their own image. There would be detante and total peace with tripower rule. They don't give a shit about the US being meanies to Canada.

[Anonymous No.19056904]

>>19056847
Books about this WWIII/IV scenario?

[Anonymous No.19056908]

>>19056847
The US navy is bigger than all those other navies combined. The US marine corp has a bigger airforce than any European country. You are delusional.
America is essentially unconquerable - the oceans are too big. How are you ever going to build up enough materiel in say Mexico to invade?

[Anonymous No.19056919]

>ITT clueless autists with 0 understanding of geopolitics

[Anonymous No.19056934]

>>19056908
>The US navy is bigger than all those other navies combined. The US marine corp has a bigger airforce than any European country.
You're thinking too much about the toys and not who's playing with them. The modern American military is a joke. It is essentially a jobs/welfare program for women and minorities. Its leadership has not won a single major war in nearly a century. Speaking of leadership, the upper echelons have been so lobotomized by loyalty purges that the only ones at the top are just neoliberal yes men.

Who makes up our military? Mexicans. Blacks. Women. Crypto Communists. The real fighting backbone is white men and what white man would be deranged enough to risk his life for this fallen nation.

[Anonymous No.19056937]

>>19056280
That's all correct though.

[Anonymous No.19056944]

>>19056934
And what do you think is going on with the European militaries? Do you think its all Dolph Lundgren operators?

[Anonymous No.19056954]

>>19056908
wasting your energy

[Anonymous No.19056981]

>>19056944
Oui.
They are small so they only recruit the cream of the crop. Americans rely so much on their drones that their ground forces are literally obese.
I also forgot to mention that you would spread yourself thin by fighting multiple fronts. Africans and Saudi Arabians aren’t going to hand over their resources for free shart, they’ll fight you for them and your track record against guerilla warfare is abysmal.

[Anonymous No.19056990]

God you guys are embarrassing when you attempt geopolitics

[Anonymous No.19057000]

>>19056990
But anon the mexicans and canadians are going to invade and secure the supply lines!

[Anonymous No.19057279]

>>19056457
>All non superpowers will agree to zero tarrif trading on our trades but face steep taxes on theirs or they'll be met with wrath.
Yes, you do that American, no one will want to trade with you then.
You literally won’t be able to compete with CCP (Cheap Chinese Product)!

[Anonymous No.19057297]

>>19056322
>Humans are creatures that guide their actions based on past experience.
>There will be a paradigm shift this century that will radically alter human society and the way we look at things.
Okay...what are you larping as?

[Anonymous No.19057346]

>>19057279
I've seen this gif or other versions multiple times, but isn't the main US trade partner China and viceversa?

[Anonymous No.19057351]

>>19056457
>there's income inequality, we should bomb a country
>my wife left me, i should punch my dog
Yeah let's consider all these measures instead of addressing the uber wealthy hoarding all the wealth. Measures that would ultimately increase their wealth. Don't you see you're a pawn?

[Anonymous No.19057363]

>>19057346
Yes, Americans addicted to CCP (Cheap Chinese Product) too.

[Anonymous No.19057389]

>>19056908
America will not be conquered. It will collapse on itself.

[Anonymous No.19057416]

>>19057297
Anon, I LARP not.

[Anonymous No.19057445]

>>19056280
>the Fall of Kabul
The Taliban taking control in Afghanistan is nowhere near the scale of historic fuck ups like South Vietnam being taken over by communists aligned to Moscow (which are willing to suck Washingtons cock today)

>>19056457
>>produces almost no industrial goods
This is insanely wrong. Americas industrial output is more than its ever been. Most of the shit you don't see though since its capital goods or goes directly into the military-industrial complex and not available on Amazon.
>>majority of the economy is meme service industry
Like all other advanced capital intensive economies.
>>fiat currency
Which underpins global trade.
>>intellectual and scientific innovation dwindling and being eclipsed by China
In what scientific field is China ahead?
>>total cultural collapse
Cultural exports are at an all time high, China is literally having to crack down on the influence right now
>>polarization worse than 1850s
That's true globally. China seems to be moving back to Mao era.

>>19057279
China assembles and exports consumer goods but they're totally dependent upon foreign corporations for the inputs for that policy to work. Most of the world is still poor as shit and would be willing to break relations with China if they saw it as a path to development. Soldering stuff together doesn't take much skill.

[Anonymous No.19057491]

>>19057363
You don't need to explain the acronym more than once, anon. That's poor writing.

[Anonymous No.19057496]

>>19057445
>Which underpins global trade.
not for long, bucko!

[Anonymous No.19057520]

>>19057496
>a currency that has no global circulation is going to usurp the usd
>t. has absolutely no idea how any of this works

[Anonymous No.19057533]

>>19057496
>a country of rice farmers living in caves and cannot read are going to usurp the USA's sole superpower status
>t. has absolutely no idea how any of this works

[Anonymous No.19057538]

>>19057520
this >>19057533 was meant for you sir, please forgive my mistake and instead let yourself be owned by my rebuttal instead

[Anonymous No.19057543]

>>19057538
deflection doesn't negate your ignorance
try again

[Anonymous No.19057546]

>>19056322
*tips fedora*

>>19056893
literal retard

[Anonymous No.19057583]

>>19056280
The USA & Poland vs Turkey & Japan Space war in the 2050s
>I know his will happen. I have looked at trends
Mexico start to compete economically with the USA in 2080s
>Now hold on folks! This sounds unbelievable, but remember the 20th century
While reading this as a non-American I genuinely think this is intended as satire.

[Anonymous No.19057670]

>>19057351
Even if your redistributed all income in the US, it wouldn't be enough. You need international pilfering and territorial expansion to truly raise the wealth.

[Anonymous No.19057713]

>>19057445
>break relations with China if they saw it as a path to development.
How is breaking relations with the largest country in the world "a path to development" ?

[Anonymous No.19057715]

>>19056477
>Turkey
Probally will just compete for France for influence on the Mediterranean countries, and compete with Russia over influence in the Middle East and Balkans.

[Anonymous No.19057718]

>>19057715
>Turkey compete with Russia over influence in the Balkans.
Don't they hate Turks over there?

[Anonymous No.19057747]

>>19057718
Nationalist memes aren't real geopolitics.
Anti-EU sentiment is high, and Turkey is currently moving in as the dominent trade partner there. Turkey has good relations with Serbia, while also positioning itself as the defender of the Muslims of the Balkans, and the main defender of Kosovo.

Sources:
https://www.srbija.gov.rs/vest/en/145995/serbia-turkey-sign-several-cooperation-agreements.php
https://www.lse.ac.uk/LSEE-Research-on-South-Eastern-Europe/Assets/Documents/Events/Presentations/2013-May-Oya-Dursun-Ozkanca-LSEE-Presentation.pdf

[Anonymous No.19057896]

>>19057747
>Nationalist memes aren't real geopolitics.
True, I regretted writing it immediately. Still, why would they side with Turkey over Russia?
>Anti-EU sentiment is high
True, but not all the Balkan is in EU (Serbia which you mentioned isn't). Turkey has been wanting to enter for decades (they will probably not enter any time soon, I agree), and Russia isn't less anti-EU than Turkey (who's even in NATO)
>while also positioning itself as the defender of the Muslims of the Balkans,
and how is this different from nationalist memes?
>and the main defender of Kosovo.
Defender from who? From...Serbia?

[Anonymous No.19057944]

>>19057896
>and how is this different from nationalist memes?
Official Turkish foreign policy
>Defender from whom? From...Serbia?
From Serbia in the 90's. Now, they want to be seen as more as the representive as Muslims around the world, from irrelevant African countries, to the (poor) Arab world.

[Anonymous No.19058150]

>>19056280
Because he works for a government-adjacent consulting firm, the government would hardly be interested in paying Stratfor to tell them that the US is a rapidly-imploding shithole.

[Anonymous No.19058717]

>>19058150
He doesn't work at STRATFOR any more.

[Anonymous No.19058727]

>>19056280
>Why does he insist on the invulnerability of America?
If you understood the basics of geopolitics you wouldn't need to ask this question.
>>19056280
>It’s like he thinks it’s impossible for anything bad to happen to America ever or for it to ever weaken.
No it's not.
>>19056280
>Russia and China will collapse back twenty years. He also still thinks Poland, Japan, and Turkey will be superpowers.
Yes, that's right.
>>19056280
>How is he taken seriously?
Because he's a really good geostrategic analyst.

[Anonymous No.19058737]

China is a huge fucking meme and they are doomed. Sinoboosters never, EVER account for everything stacked against them. You never hear a word from them about the fact that China has pissed off every single one of their immediate neighbors, and the US would have its pick of allies of convenience in any military conflict. Japan is on the verge of signing a mutual defense pact with Hong Kong. Japan fucking hates China and they have a big boy military, even if they're only technically allowed to use it in "self-defense." South Korea's military is no joke either, for its size. India has a massive army and could instantly open a second front against China in a war. Trump smartly cozied up to India for this reason.

Meanwhile every single attempt by China to make allies in the region has failed because they are megalomaniac retards who still imbibe their Middle Kingdom bullshit all these thousands of years later. The Philippines is a prime example of this. Duterte is actually pro-China, but China has so hilariously pissed off the military and the people of the Philippines due to their bullshit in the South China Sea that Duterte has almost no support for his pro-China behavior, and the country as a whole has drifted back into the orbit of the United States.

China is going to try to invade Taiwan in the next decade and it's going to get roflstomped by about a dozen countries, of which America is only one.

[Anonymous No.19058763]

>>19058737
>"Sinoboos"
These are mostly just people projecting their own desires onto Chungus China and fantasize about China delivering righteous punishment upon the US for its failings.

[Anonymous No.19058806]

The problem with history is that it's easy to extrapolate trends, difficult (but possible) to identify things that will upset those trends, and impossible to predict wildcard factors.

So much of the course of history depends on the individual decisions and personalities of the people at the top. It's not quite "great man" theory but you're a fool if you believe it doesn't matter who is President.

Anyway, America has problems but China and Russia have more. You just don't hear about those problems because nobody is allowed to talk about them. If America is teetering, China and Russia are already off the ledge. So I think his predictions may or may not be right, but his prediction that whatever happens China and Russia will have a worse time of it than America probably is.

I was watching some old Transformers the other day, which has some episodes set in the far, far future of 2005. In the far, far future of 2005 the Soviet Union still exists - because at the time that the episode writers were writing the episode, in the 1980s, predictions that the USSR was going to collapse in the way it did did not exist. People thought the world would continue inevitably in the bipolar way that it currently was.

And that's what people believe now, when there really is no reason to believe that that is more likely than anything else.

But somehow, predictions that "everything is going to stay the same forever" are treated as highly credible sensible thought and reasoning, whereas predictions that there will be major upsets within our lifetime that change everything we thought we knew about the world are seen as fantasy.

I don't think China can continue the way that it is now forever. For twenty more years? Fifty more years? Maybe. But how many more rich elites can Xi kill before the rich elites decide they don't like him anymore? How many more empty houses can they build? 40% of rural Chinese children have intestinal worms. 50% have an IQ of less than 90 due to malnutrition and stunted growth. Neither of these problems are being fixed, because XI's 5-year-plan has performance metrics for electrification but not for de-worming. China is not healthy. But they do a very good job of maintaining a thin veneer of health.

[Anonymous No.19058818]

>>19056280
All geopolitical predictions are pointless when society will cease to exist by 2050 (2060 at the latest) thanks to climate change.

[Anonymous No.19058942]

>>19058818
Ah yes, the single issue that IR famously doesn't address except for in every single report.

[Anonymous No.19059177]

>>19057670
If the American lifestyle is unsustainable, then it seems like it's time to adjust to a different way of life. You could try to maintain the empire with more expansion and looting, but you might just end up getting your teeth kicked in. I think we'll probably have to get used to less frenetic consumption, either way. I think that's probably already happening with the pandemic when people suddenly realized they didn't need (or really want) as much stuff as they thought they did. One of my friends converted to Buddhism and it seems to be working out pretty well for him, and that makes me feel good.

>>19058763
Pretty much. I've seen some Chinese stuff talking about both "excessive criticism" and "immoderate praise" from the west. They exist in a unity of opposites. One says that China is just absolutely terrible and is gonna collapse in two weeks for sure this time. While the other side overly (or "immoderately") praises China and really boosts it up. China is gonna take over the world! Hooray! But uhh... that's probably not gonna happen. And even if the Chinese tried, they'd probably fail at it.

There are also some Chinese nationalists who are like this. And nationalism has been a global phenomenon lately. But I think the government prefers to "ride the bull" of this nationalist wave rather than "be the bull" because that's a bad idea. So the government is kinda slyly telling the nationalists to not fall for the "immoderate praise" because... it's actually a trap (wink wink) by the West and by America to get us to make mistakes! To overextend ourselves! And if we fall for this devious American trap, then China won't be great! Nationalists are pretty stupid if you think about it and this apparently seems to work well enough at getting them to obey.

https://youtu.be/WZ8xntJHPw0

[Anonymous No.19059244]

>>19056280
>Why does he insist on the invulnerability of America? It’s like he thinks it’s impossible for anything bad to happen to America ever or for it to ever weaken.
Because this Stratfor guy might be a CIA agent and these books are basically morale-booster shots to get people to support their government and work hard and believe in it. It's a psyop at some level. That doesn't mean doomerism is correct, either, though.

[Anonymous No.19059380]

>>19056857
>american exceptionalism
No. He is jewish.
>disgusting hubris
I will give you this one.

[Anonymous No.19059934]

>>19058737
>India has a massive army and could instantly open a second front against China in a war. Trump smartly cozied up to India for this reason.
Most of India-China border is literally the Himalaya, that doesn't look like a place where to start to invade China.

[Anonymous No.19059944]

>>19058806
>40% of rural Chinese children have intestinal worms.
>50% have an IQ of less than 90 due to malnutrition and stunted growth.
Isn't it not too different from the normal distibution of IQ?

[Anonymous No.19060451]

>>19059934
Exactly. The poos are at a massive geographic disadvantage. Its as silly as the idea of China crossing the Taiwan strait in any meaningful way which would somehow not be stomped by the benefit of Taiwans inherent defensive strength in that scenario

[Anonymous No.19060972]

>>19056280
Look at which countries are net importers of food and net exporters of food. Net importer of food can turn into mass starvation and societal collapse very rapidly under the right conditions.

[Anonymous No.19061271]

America won't be conquered but it's empire will retract. There also won't be a new dominant hegemony but multiply competing spheres of influence. USA, EU, UK (If they pull their head out,) China, India, Russia, Japan (Getting closer all the time to repealing article 9.)

[Anonymous No.19061291]

>>19058942
There won’t be any international relations by 2060, only small tribes living in the ruins of modern civilization.

[Anonymous No.19061439]

Dear mutts, chinks and vatniks,

I don’t know if you’ve noticed but the world hasn’t changed.
The age of superpowers is coming to an end. No longer will the big countries dominate and dictate to the small an de medium-sized countries. That’s Cold War rhetoric that is long outdated.
Everyone is catching up while you are declining, it’s no coincidence that you can’t assert your will effectively on others anymore.
I suggest you adjust to this new era, if you try to start wars with the third-world you’ll get your teeth kicked in by guerrilla warfare and we know you’re too chicken to start them with the first world since you know you stand a chance of losing.
I suggest you sit down, be humble and play nice, if you continue with your imperialistic ambitions you will plunge headlong into the catastrophe (demographic collapse, etc.)

Signed,
The rest of the world

[Anonymous No.19062609]

>>19056457
As someone who could literally convince people to actually do that I'm telling you it will never happen. Turkey can convince the new caliphate or whatever to start making some regional trade deal whereby the resources are passed through the more conservative religious and traditional cultures nearby peacefully. You are just a dumb gay nigger faggot. Thank you come again.

[Anonymous No.19063125]

>>19061291
Tell me more.

[Anonymous No.19063264]

>>19061439
>signed, the rest of the world

You have to go back