Is Taleb the most genius author?

[Anonymous No.15780733]

>I once broke my nose…walking. For the sake of antifragility, of course. I was trying to walk on uneven surfaces, as part of my antifragility program, under the influence of Erwan Le Corre, who believes in naturalistic exercise. It was exhilarating; I felt the world was richer, more fractal, and when I contrasted this terrain with the smooth surfaces of sidewalks and corporate offices, those felt like prisons. Unfortunately, I was carrying something much less ancestral, a cellular phone, which had the insolence to ring in the middle of my walk.
>In the emergency room, the doctor and staff insisted that I should “ice” my nose, meaning apply an ice-cold patch to it. In the middle of the pain, it hit me that the swelling that Mother Nature gave me was most certainly not directly caused by the trauma. It was my own body’s response to the injury. It seemed to me that it was an insult to Mother Nature to override her programmed reactions unless we had a good reason to do so, backed by proper empirical testing to show that we humans can do better; the burden of evidence falls on us humans. So I mumbled to the emergency room doctor whether he had any statistical evidence of benefits from applying ice to my nose or if it resulted from a naive version of an interventionism. His response was: “You have a nose the size of Cleveland and you are now interested in…numbers?” I recall developing from his blurry remarks the thought that he had no answer.
>Effectively, he had no answer, because as soon as I got to a computer, I was able to confirm that there is no compelling empirical evidence in favor of the reduction of swelling. At least, not outside of the very rare cases in which the swelling would threaten the patient, which was clearly not the case. It was pure sucker-rationalism in the mind of doctors, following what made sense to boundedly intelligent humans, coupled with interventionism, this need to do something, this defect of thinking that we knew better, and denigration of the unobserved ... The researchers Paul Meehl and Robin Dawes pioneered a tradition to catalog the tension between “clinical” and actuarial (that is, statistical) knowledge, and examine how many things believed to be true by professionals and clinicians aren’t so and don’t match empirical evidence. The problem is of course that these researchers did not have a clear idea of where the burden of empirical evidence lies (the difference between naive or pseudo empiricism and rigorous empiricism)—the onus is on the doctors to show us why reducing fever is good, why eating breakfast before engaging in activity is healthy (there is no evidence), or why bleeding patients is the best alternative (they’ve stopped doing so). Sometimes I get the answer that they have no clue when they have to utter defensively “I am a doctor” or “are you a doctor?”

[Anonymous No.15780756]

Taleb has gone full SJW in 2020 with "IQ = muh racism"

Absolute last person I expected to lose his integrity like this.

He literally said the reason US niggers underperform in school is racism, because IQ is a fraud. He blocks you if you point out that inner city schools like Baltimore are in the top 10 in the country for per capita spending, and quite literally don't have a single student able to read at the expected grade level.

[Anonymous No.15780758]

[Anonymous No.15780783]

>>15780756
Imagine seething over his refutation of IQ.

[Anonymous No.15780798]

>>15780756
The politically antifragile position is to deny meaningful differences between populations. Worked for religion

[Anonymous No.15780804]

>>15780756
If IQ is so informative, how come high IQ only substantially correlates with increased paygrade when it is comorbid with certain personality traits? I'm thinking of Miriam Gensowski's research
And why aren't those effects like crazy powerful.
Why isn't it that 120 IQ earns like 10 times what a 100IQ person would, considering how much rarer it is?

[Anonymous No.15780820]

>>15780756
>IF YOU DISAGREE WITH MUH REDPILLED RACE REALIZM, YOUR AN ESJAYDUBBLEJUU

Polcels should be preemptively banned

[Anonymous No.15780823]

>>15780804
no correlation; only noise, as Taleb showed

[Anonymous No.15780826]

>>15780756
he just understands dimensionality unlike you

[Anonymous No.15780832]

>>15780756
>Believing in the validity of IQ as a substitute for intelligence
>Being well-read
You have to go back to the containment board.

[Anonymous No.15780835]

>>15780820
The spacing of your posts gives you both away.

[Anonymous No.15780855]

>>15780804
It's more like comparing a population where you can have one guy like Newton or Norman Borlaug with a population that has no Newtons or Norman Borlaugs. I don't believe in great men of history but I believe you need the right circumstances to get these people, IQ is a somewhat useful indicator in this case

[Anonymous No.15780915]

>>15780823
Based.

[Anonymous No.15780927]

>>15780804
This is a question that is very quickly answered if you actually bothered to look at modern intelligence research. Firstly, social performance is multi-factorial and literally nobody with any understanding of psychometrics is arguing that on a per person basis IQ will be a 100% determinant of any social performance factor. Secondly, the average person with 120 IQ will have a theoretical ability to perform well enough to occupy positions not as easily available to a 100 IQ person, but this is by no means a guarantee they will make that choice. There is not a 1:1 linearity in high paying jobs. Just because high paying intellectually demanding jobs self select for higher IQ people does not mean that higher IQ people self select for higher paying intellectually demanding jobs in the same proportion. Higher IQ on average will allow someone more economic opportunities, but individuals do not often pursue these for a wide variety of reasons beyond just their intelligence. This is like arguing that there is no reality to genetic effects on the distribution of type 1/type 2 twitch muscle fibers because not everyone with the genetic potential for professional athletic performance ends up being an NFL star.

[Anonymous No.15781025]

Reminder.

1/2

[Anonymous No.15781037]

>>15781025
2/2

[Anonymous No.15781045]

>>15780783
I'd like to bet Taleb $10mm on the following:

He gets 10 randomly selected cohorts of 100 people with 85 IQ. I get 10 randomly selected cohorts of 100 people with 115 IQ.

We'll take those 10 pairings and give them 10 complex organizational tasks.

We'll see if Mr. Integrity-Flaneur will bet his life savings that his group can outperform on a single task. Just 1 in 10. It's a sure thing if IQ is noise, right? I'm sure he'd take the bet.

[Anonymous No.15781061]

>>15780927
>This is like arguing that there is no reality to genetic effects on the distribution of type 1/type 2 twitch muscle fibers because not everyone with the genetic potential for professional athletic performance ends up being an NFL star.
No it's not, embarrassing retard. The muscle is an immediately observable physiological tissue you can study with tangible engineered measuring devices where a single unit must be well defined with regards to physical changes.

IQ is supposed to measure "intelligence". An abstract concept with various meanings depending on the value judgements you apply.

[Anonymous No.15781085]

>>15780756
you are dumb

[Anonymous No.15781091]

>>15781037
Wow, he uses articles and prepositions and conjunctions.

[Anonymous No.15781093]

>>15781045
You don’t even have $10mm, you NEET faggot

[Anonymous No.15781094]

>>15780756
imbecile

[Anonymous No.15781102]

>>15781061
>IQ is supposed to measure "intelligence". An abstract concept with various meanings depending on the value judgements you apply.
Leftists think everything is a game of signalling. No, we can measure growth when a hospital is built, when new technology is invented, when an oil rig is constructed. We need high IQ people to make, maintain and improve this stuff. It doesn't matter what you call it, it grows society

[Anonymous No.15781106]

>>15781045
offer him the bet then

[Anonymous No.15781107]

>>15781045
what if the task is digging a hole and one of the alpha 85iq people takes charge and they get to work while the 110iq people take ages deciding the most optimal way to dig and so on

[Anonymous No.15781114]

>>15780823
i'm the guy with a 73 iq pulling down 180k a year

[Anonymous No.15781130]

>>15781102
>statistical abstractions are analogous to observable objects!
I think you'll feel better at home with your intellectual equals over at /pol/.

[Anonymous No.15781273]

>>15781130
Everything is a statistical abstraction when it comes to determining human ability and capacity you absolute dork. Do you think the Chinese spend billions on corporate espionage and industrial secrets theft for a lark? They know what they'll be able to innovate, what they'll be able to create themselves and what they have to steal so as to not be left behind

[Anonymous No.15781383]

>>15781273
I dare you to give an alternative example where human ability is measured without a defined measuring unit and observable measurable object.

[Anonymous No.15781403]

>>15781045
Read this. You're strawmanning Taleb

[Anonymous No.15781416]

>>15780733
Holy fucking shit, I was convinced this was a effort-shitpost, but it's real.

[Anonymous No.15781426]

>>15780756
>NOOOOOOOO! THIS MAN WHO HAS MADE HIS FORTUNE AS A STATICIAN AND SCIENTIST DISAGREES WITH MY UNSOURCED /POL/ INFOGRAPHICS! THIS CAN'T BE HAPPENING! TALEB IS CANCELLED!

[Anonymous No.15781452]

Nassim Taleb is literally god.

[Anonymous No.15781920]

>>15781426
Charles Murray, for example, also has these titles and he's 180 to Taleb.

[Anonymous No.15781994]

>>15781061
Do you know how I know you know nothing about physiology and exercise science? Force production is the primary way that muscles are studied (which is a very similar proxy measurement to IQ) because in-vivo muscle biopsies are exceedingly rare outside of medical contexts.

You're a fucking retard and should actually read something about intelligence research before you automatically dismiss it because it goes against your biases. Tests are and will always be imperfect, but you're fighting against one of the most consistently replicated and well documented human oriented scientific pursuits there is.

[Anonymous No.15782038]

>>15781114
That is what actual genius truly means. Making the most of what you are given.

[Anonymous No.15782093]

>>15781920
murray is a polsci midwit, what the fuck does he know about mathematical methods?

[Anonymous No.15782098]

>>15781383
You certainly should avoid the entirety of economics (especially risk analysis) if that's your critique of intelligence measurements. The entirety of risk analysis as a field is based upon proxy measurements compared against arbitrarily established baselines.

Human performances in literally every portion physiological/athletic sciences are measured via proxy measurements where the direct goal is often either impossible to measure directly or direct measurements would require violation of IRB standards. The entirety of Pain Science and the current BPS models all rely on subjective measurements with no direct unit. Almost all medication blind clinical studies rely on subjective reports of results mixed with distant proxy measurements. Your gripe with IQ is completely baseless when you actually take a second to look at what claims intelligence researchers are making directly rather than relying on third party pundits and the impressions of uninformed arrogant morons like Taleb.

[Anonymous No.15782117]

>>15782093
Obviously more than you, especially considering you're not even smart enough to actually read his work directly and examine the claims they are making and the limitations of his arguments directly.

[Anonymous No.15782161]

>>15782098
>Seething wall of text with no substance
>not a single example that fulfills the conditions
Begone brainlet.

[Anonymous No.15782197]

>>15781403
His point is one that lacks the depth he is implying. Essentially for his standard of a "measure" (which aside from colloquial usage nobody claims IQ is a measure in the sense of measure theory), there needs to be a linear correlation all the way through. If something is well correlated in one range and less well correlated in another then it's totally uninformational (for some reason he never actually explains, he just says it and we're supposed to believe him). This does not actually work for any of the proxy measurements consistently used for evaluation of human performance in any field, because it can only work for single variant linear probability spaces. As soon as you introduce either non-linearities or multiple coupled factors, this analysis seeks to be meaningful.

I don't see Taleb claiming we need to rewrite our entire understanding of medicine because there are not linear uniform correlations for efficacy for dose dependent responses. His problem with IQ is a totally pointless objection that doesn't even make enough sense to be "wrong" because it essentially sets an unsubstantiated and unfalsifiable standard for what a proxy measurement needs to be in order to be useful. This is not because he has some better way to evaluate human performance, but because he has enough people who just sort of believe what he says and don't have any stats experience to wave his hands and make up some bullshit.

[Anonymous No.15782204]

>>15780756
>He blocks you if you point out that inner city schools like Baltimore are in the top 10 in the country for per capita spending, and quite literally don't have a single student able to read at the expected grade level.
Yes, because schoolchildren only exist within the classroom and what happens prior to enrollment in the school system doesn't matter at all.

[Anonymous No.15782210]

>>15782161
Oh wow, the person who claims IQ is uninformational doesn't have the attention span to read 10 sentences. Color me surprised. I provided you with multiple examples of human performance fields that don't use direct measurements but you're too much of a moron to actually read it.

[Anonymous No.15782228]

You'd think Taleb with his insistence on 'skin in the game' would understand the use of IQ. If Taleb had to bet a lot of money on who could idk... better engineer a modern building, he would be very dumb to choose a group with an average IQ of 100 instead of a group with an average IQ of 140.

I feel like he is aware of this on some level and he's just being dishonest.

[Anonymous No.15782231]

>>15780756
this is literally a sub 100 IQ post

[Anonymous No.15782234]

>>15781994
Force has a defined unit of measurement and can be directly observed because it's literally mass multiplied with acceleration. It's basic Newtonian mechanics. God, you peanutbrained poltards really need to get the fuck out of this place.

[Anonymous No.15782236]

>>15780756
Imbecile. blocked

[Anonymous No.15782249]

>>15782210
Not a single example you gave measured explicitly human ability according to the conditions I provided but you seem to be certain of yourself. Care to give a basic summation of these measurable human abilities so that you can embarrass yourself again?

[Anonymous No.15782303]

He's German philosophy reduced to a Tedx talk.

[Anonymous No.15782324]

>>15781045
lmao imagine taleb only has a life savings of $10mm

[Anonymous No.15782365]

>>15782249
Pain tolerance and the effect of medications on pain tolerance literally is a measurement of human ability. The subjective effects of medications on individual test subjects literally is a measurement of "human ability" as humans will vary in their response to various medical procedures/substances. Force production and bar velocity become objective measurements for non-measurable things like strength development (assumed to be neural but not directly measurable) or hypertrophy (assumed to come from the expansion of sarcomeres in parallel but not directly measurable). Recovery from injury in sports is based upon using objective measurements of specific movements to come to conclusions about the not measurable concept of recovery. This is no different to IQ which is the use of objective results of individual tests in combination with controls to eliminate confounding factors to assess intelligence which is not a directly measurable concept.

>>15782234
You're fucking retarded and don't know a good damn thing about either exercise science or IQ tests. Force production in the way exercise scientists use the term isn't just F = ma, but is carefully calibrated using multiple proxies to account for differences in subject physiology. Force production is referenced against these controls to make decisions about things that are not directly measured like "hypertrophy" and "strength development" in much the same way that results of individual tests (which are objective measurements like what questions were answered correctly, timing, and different aspects of the particular component tests) are calibrated against controls to produce IQ (which is not directly measurable just like hypertrophy or strength gains).

[Anonymous No.15782378]

>>15780804
Because there is a hundred other factors that go into where you ultimately end up in life. IQ is just a marker for potential.
If a 130 IQ person doesn’t have social disorders, grows up in a good environment, works hard, they can have a chance at working at the level that their IQ reflects, but as we know that is not always the case.
But someone who is 85IQ can have all the right opportunities yet will still never be able to function at the level the 130IQ level can.

Every “refutation” of IQ ignores this. I have 122IQ, yet I I grew up poor, made stupid decisions, live in a shit town and consequently have mainly done unfulfilling work like fork lift driving.
Yet I have worked with clearly sub 100IQ people that are function at their highest even doing that.
But you‘ll deny that and just laugh and ignore that not everyone gets the chance or acts in time to truly live up to their potential.

[Anonymous No.15782429]

>>15782378
That's an anecdote...

[Anonymous No.15782459]

>>15782228
The guy's just bearish for group differences becoming a staple in mainstream discourse, which makes sense if you want to do public speaking and get invitations to different institutions. He's hand-waving it away as pseudo-science. The only issue with this stance (besides it being a disingenuous one) is that China has shown that they're willing to make use of biometrics on a completely different level

[Anonymous No.15782493]

>>15782459
I'm not going to fault anyone for not being open about IQ in public, but he went out of his way to attack it. He also doesn't mind group differences when talking about his ridiculous 'Mediterranean' grouping of completely different peoples.

[Anonymous No.15782670]

>>15782197
Oh, look. Another retard who hasn't even read Taleb's piece. Taleb explains why it's useless as a non linear (or has an absence of symmetry) in his piece and he has video (https://youtu.be/szXf0VLuQLg)), but you're too retarded to understand. You retards essentially benefit from the fact that IQ measures incompetence, like asking someone to find a coconut in your garden can. Unless you've invented some new mathematics, correlation on the low end doesn't mean that random noise proves IQ is a valid measure of intelligence.
>I don't see Taleb claiming we need to rewrite our entire understanding of medicine because there are not linear uniform correlations for efficacy for dose dependent responses.
Hahaha. You've never even read his books. He shits on those fields all the time.

Congratulations, you've outed yourself as a fool.

[Anonymous No.15782672]

>>15782493
The map is not the territory. Maybe the idea is that if we don't talk about group differences and human potential then this stuff just floats around in the ether like an unformed embryo, a manageable black box with eventual problems more effectively dealt with using less risky models. The danger with talking about this stuff is that it can become grounds for political mobilization, the discussion itself affecting our behavior, which is not really the case with more esoteric talk about 'mediterranean' groupings and whatnot.

[Anonymous No.15782689]

>>15780733
>statistical
>empirical
>Not using the ice as a medium to reduce the swelling with your will

[Anonymous No.15782776]

>>15782670
I've read antifragile and rapidly oscillated between sensible arguments about not discarding useful heuristics in favor of overly complex jargon based nonsense (which is ironically a good argument for why IQ should be used as a model for generalized intelligence rather than the fragmented biomedical models that "multiple intelligences" neuro-psych people tend to like), but I have not read the rest of Incerto you are correct.

An absence of symmetry in a stochastic process like IQ does not mean it is uninformational. He would have sort of an argument if he was saying that it was uninformational in terms of how well IQ predicts individual life outcomes (which intelligence researchers never argue that it does on a per person basis), but by claiming that it doesn't work for aggregate data he's basically making an argument that he can't support. Medicine and physiology does have quite a lot of bullshitting due to the inherent complexity, but if Taleb truly believes that models based on random selection are more effective than IQ based models he should put some skin in the game rather than writing vague blog posts online and calling people names.

[Anonymous No.15783649]

>>15780798
>Worked for religion

never thought of it that way. unironically high IQ and based poast.

[Anonymous No.15784599]

>>15781920
Taleb has already shown that Murray is a fake scholar. Sorry.

' Murray seems to gerrymander what the West means and doesn't know what gerrymandering means: pick what works and call it the West. But worse, he is no scholar. Clueless mistakes.
Take one page, 588. It has the following errors. Under "National Origin", he misclassifies people:
+ AlKindi was Arabian not from Persia in "National Origin"
+Saadia Gaon was Egyptian/Babylonian Jew not from Persia in "National Origin"
+Manichaeus was Persian not from Rome in "National Origin"
+Plutarch was Greek not from Rome in "National Origin"
+Philo Judaeus was an Egyptian/Mizrahi Jew not from Greece in "National Origin"
+Porphirius was Phoenician not from Greece in "National Origin"
+Tertullian was a Berber not from Rome in "National Origin"
+Posidonius was Apamean Syrian not from Greece in "National Origin"
+Zeno was Cypriot Phoenician from Kition not from Greece in "National Origin"
+Maimonides was a Sephardic Jew not a Spaniard, and if Spaniard then Averroes also born in Cordova shd be so. And Seneca also born in Spain is deemed to be from Rome in "National Origin". '

https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R3VL4SLVS56LB9/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=006019247X

[Anonymous No.15784674]

>>15780823
https://youtu.be/fSXYhnrwjQE
Taleb incorrectly interprets this graph and is wrong on IQ in general.

We have this discussion every time the article comes up, and yet nothing ever changes, so i'm just posting the video (by an accredited statistician, not that it matters for the arguments).

[Anonymous No.15785034]

Based Taleb

[Anonymous No.15785056]

>>15781920
Taleb is way smarter than Murray. Taleb makes millions of dollars while making people millions of dollars. You know he is an advisor for an investment firm that made hundreds of millions this epidemic?
What did murray do? Say that black have low IQ and whites are the maste race.

[Anonymous No.15785086]

>>15780733
East Med civilization is the most overrated shit of all time.
p.s. Sicily and Rome are not J2 you faggot

[Anonymous No.15785188]

>>15781920
Charles Murray said that most human accomplishment took place in the last 500 years.
But that's like saying that inventing modern guns is more important than the invention of gunpowder. And that is absurd. Remove the chinese invention of gunpowder and everything that europeans built on that disappears. Charles Murray is so low IQ that he couldn't comprehend this.