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14929574 No.14929574 [Reply] [Original]

Taleb was correct in the "Black Swan" over 10 years, but everyone disregarded him as a mad man. Now look where we are. What do you have to say to Mr. Taleb?

>> No.14929650
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14929650

>>14929574
I didnt give a shot about this narcissistic mediocrity before, but I swear this shitposting has triggered an almost pavlovian response in me so that if I ever did meet him, I would fucking murder him.

>> No.14929666
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14929666

>>14929650
Taleb is a nice man. When you meet him, he will say, "Hello, friend." And then he will prepare a nice dish of East Med cuisine.

>> No.14930717

Bump

>> No.14930747

>>14929650
He'd snap your spine in two, sterile imbecile.

>> No.14930927

>>14929574
How do you prepare for a random event that is so rare and unlikely you can’t even conceive of what it might be in advance?

I don’t get how the realization that there are so-called “black swan events” is a huge insight.

It’s basically saying “shit happens, get a helmet.”

Not particularly deep or useful. I got the same out of Kurt Vonnegut novels when I was 11.

>> No.14931259

>>14929650
Good luck. He lifts heavy weights regularly.

>> No.14931265

>>14929574
>or-gy

>> No.14931274
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14931274

>>14929574
Correct about the Black Swan 2000 years ago.
Checkmate modern pseuds.

>> No.14931282

>>14929574
What was he 'correct' about, exactly?

>> No.14931291
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14931291

>>14930747
>OH NNOOOOOOOOO! I-IS THAT A SINGLE PLATE DEADLIFT WITH REVERSE GRIP! AAAAHHHHH!THE BLACK SWAN IS REAL! I'M GOING INNSSSSAAANNE!!!!

>> No.14931311

>>14930927
>you can’t even conceive of what it might be in advance?

Yes, you can. Of course there are really unpredictable ones, like meteors or the leader of Russia going mad and throwing a bomb at you, but overall you can predict the possibility of most events which entail ruin. Pandemics can be prepared for, specially if it takes a while for it to get to your country.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca4e0db0-6aaa-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

>Singapore reported its first two deaths from the pathogen only this weekend, despite being one of the first countries to be hit by the outbreak outside China two months ago. That has made it one of the safest places in the world for patients of the disease, which has already killed more than 13,000 people globally.

Taleb gave a talk about pandemics in Singapore years ago. He even talks about the risk of a pandemic in The Black Swan. It can be predicted. Of course you don't know the *exact* spot it's going to appear, but there are things that can serve for all pandemics, such as having extra hospital beds, extra supply of masks and so on.

>> No.14931320

Lolberts have been saying the same shit for decades
>sometime somewhere, something will happen

>> No.14931336

>>14929574
>an event can change the course of history
>see I made up this idea I am super smart, IQ is bullshit because I am an arab guy ok.

>> No.14931356

>>14929650
This, and whatever autist keeps spamming threads about him is likely an arab too. He always has the same responses.
>inb4 "imbecile"

>> No.14931507

Granted i only skimmed Black Swan (i read fooled by randomness carefully. felt like he kept repeating himself), but isn't what he say obvious shit you'd learn in your first probability course? Why is he being hailed as this great thinker?The only reason he has naysayers is because he is kind of a dick (a funny one).

>> No.14931514

>>14929574
He single handedly saved billions

>> No.14931520
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14931520

>>14929650
>>14930927
>>14931274
>>14931282
>>14931291
>>14931320
>>14931336
>>14931356
>>14931507
The state of this board.

>> No.14931917

>>14931520
I know holy fuck is this board detestable
It's literally filled with medicore 19 year olds idk what I expected

>> No.14931945

>>14931917
The great thing about the internet is that you can just assume your ad homs to be true.

>> No.14931956

Did people disregard him? I thought he was quite popular and that finance roaches loved black swan.

>> No.14931972

>>14929574
>unexpected things happen
Bravo Taleb. An Averroes of the modern age.