/lit/ - Literature

[Anonymous No.12085899]

The most important book of the decade.

[Anonymous No.12085903]

>>12085899

Anti-fragile is more important though. It's the keystone of Taleb's philosophy.

[Anonymous No.12085988]

>>12085903
This anon gets it.
Antifragile is the most based and redpilled book of the third millennium.

[Anonymous No.12085992]

>>12085899
truly a philosophy for our time

[Anonymous No.12085998]

>>12085899
Does he discuss anything about physical limits imposed by physics/thermodynamics? What's his theory of human behavior?

[Anonymous No.12086077]

>>12085899
>book of the deacade
your daily reminder that opinions without reasons do not matter. at least put some effort in presenting ideas of the book.

[Anonymous No.12087068]

>>12085903
I don't think so. I think skin in the game is more central to Taleb's overall risk philosophy.

[Anonymous No.12087076]

The Black Swan
Antifragile
Skin in the Game

The holy trinity.

God bless Taleb.

[Anonymous No.12087131]

>>12085899
Taleb’s twitter beef with Nate Silver has completely shot my opinion of him. I just found a second hand copy of black swan and I was gonna start it pretty soon but after seeing what kind of nob he is on twitter I’m really doubting how much of an intellectual he really is.

Does being a statistics guy he apparently doesn’t get a lot of basic shit about elections forecasting or 538 that I, with a mere three years of a statistics degree understand perfectly fine.

He even wrote an academic paper to dish on 538 but didn’t even realize the difference between their ‘NowCast’ and their actual election forecast despite all it being explained on their website.

[Anonymous No.12087143]

>>12085903
Is that why it’s the first book in the omnibus? I was triggered it goes out of order

[Anonymous No.12087148]

>>12086077
Would.

[Anonymous No.12087149]

>>12087131
Taleb has a pretty short fuse with intellectual hacks, either deal with it or cry more. His destruction of Mary Beard for her historical revisionism still makes me erect

[Anonymous No.12087230]

>>12087149
Except he’s just wrong though. Like the paper he wrote on elections forcasting isn’t going to make it through peer review because it has errors that mathematics undergrads can recognize.

People who are even a little statistically inclined can recognize that, for example, in 2016 when 538 gave trump a 30% chance on Election Day, when everybody else was giving him between a 1%-5% chance, they did indeed make a better model than everybody else. And a 70-30 split is exactly consistent with say, the 30 side winning the college but the 70 side winning the most votes by a large margin.

The NowCast represented ‘if the election were held today’, while the model proper smooths out local movements so as to given a projection to what they think it will mostly likely be on Election Day. The ‘NowCast’ was just a bonus toggle on the website they added bc they could. Taleb used that bonus feature as representing the model itself. So sorry, he’s just wrong.

How am I to believe he is not the hack here when he’s making errors like that and then tweeting about “klueless Nate Silver”.

[Anonymous No.12087239]

>>12087230
>peer review
cancer. Newton and Einstein didnt need that garbage

[Anonymous No.12087240]

>>12087131
>Taleb’s twitter beef with Nate Silver has completely shot my opinion of him
Taleb gets in multiple twitter beefs a week.

[Anonymous No.12087318]

>>12087240
Maybe true but I only saw it for the first time this week. Hearing that this is a habit for him doesn’t make me more confident in his work.

>>12087239
Wtf are you talking about? All Einstein’s papers went through peer review.

[Anonymous No.12087331]

Is Antifragile accessible enough to be understood by a pleb with minimal understanding of economics?

[Anonymous No.12087337]

>>12087331
Yes.

[Anonymous No.12087348]

>>12087230
>defending 538
Stop...just stop

[Anonymous No.12087375]

>>12087348
And yet that’s all any criticism comes down to.. Why does an alleged big brain like Taleb need to lie if they are such a paper tiger?

[Anonymous No.12087403]

>>12087230
I still don't think Nate's normal forecast for 2016 was martingale process, which is should be, but if indeed Taleb was using the nowcast in his paper then that's just intellectually dishonest

[Anonymous No.12087412]

>tfw no skin in the game

Will this book give me skin in the game?

[Anonymous No.12087421]

>>12087375
>still defending pseuds like 538
You’re a madman

[Anonymous No.12087442]

>>12087403

Here is the paper;
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf

And Nate;
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1063094454675034119?s=21

[Anonymous No.12087458]

>>12087442
>https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf
this is really stupid. He does indeed seem to clip a picture of the nowcast for his paper when he could have just clipped the regular forecast (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/)) which is almost the same issue of not being a martingale process. Nate's 2016 model was mathematically wrong but taleb weirdly decided to fudge with the facts for no reason.

[Anonymous No.12087462]

>>12087421
Probabilistic election forecasting works, sorry.
And the results of 2016 were within the margin of error of polling

[Anonymous No.12087465]

>>12087462
>Probabilistic election forecasting works
pls

[Anonymous No.12087501]

>>12087462
Shhhh commie. No more tears

[Anonymous No.12087578]

>>12085988
*ahem*
FUCK FRAGILISTAS
thank you.

[Anonymous No.12087582]

>>12087501
I’m a partisan only to mathematics

[Anonymous No.12087661]

>>12087068
>skin in the game is more central to Taleb's overall risk philosophy

You'll note how small of a circle Skin in the Game is.

[Anonymous No.12087665]

>>12087661

Forgot my image.

[Anonymous No.12087670]

>>12087665
>fat Tonyism
this arab never ceases to entertain

[Anonymous No.12087690]

>>12087670
>arab
IMBECILE!

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/957026905592598528

[Anonymous No.12087692]

>>12087665
this is amazing

[Anonymous No.12087823]

>>12087690
He may not be AN Arab but he's definitely /OurArab/ all the same.

[Anonymous No.12087886]

>>12087690
He hates being called an Arab

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/967874519322054656

[Anonymous No.12087945]

>calls people "butthurt" on Twitter like a 20 year old
Based

[Anonymous No.12087977]

How exactly does Taleb define fragility? Do I need read the book to get it?

[Anonymous No.12087994]

>>12087977
No, you need to buy the book to get it.

[Anonymous No.12088578]

>people always post in taleb threads about how any math undergrad can see how his probability is worthless and that he is a hack
>meanwhile talebs predictions on everything just keep coming true (the latest was the one about the saudi's)


like him or hate him, his books are the most likely to still be around in 200 years out of anything that has been published in the last 30 years

[Anonymous No.12089169]

>>12087665
based

[Anonymous No.12089182]

>>12087670
>>12087690
>>12087823
>>12087886
Linguistically an Arab, ethnically not an Arab.
We're done here.
but he is /ourarab/

[Anonymous No.12089277]

>>12088578
>>people always post in taleb threads about how any math undergrad can see how his probability is worthless and that he is a hack
literally no one does this

[Anonymous No.12089313]

>>12087239
both of them went through the mundane trials of academia though, what the fuck are you talking about?

[Anonymous No.12089372]

>>12087230
it's not an academic paper, it's just him throwing together a draft on arxiv. His premise is correct: Nate's models don't follow the "price" movements for an election outcomes that you would have with the equivalently fairly priced option.

Taleb's paper is way too complicated and quant-finance-bro though for something that can be explained with more normal stochastic theory. Pic attached is the actual polls forecast from 538 for the 2016 election (NOT the Nowcast). The sudden wild movement in forecast percentages shown just would not happen with a correct model. If you are that far out from the event (election) and you have a sudden change in inputs that your model wants to use to wildly change its forecast, this means you have a sudden spike in volatility i.e. uncertainty i.e. entropy. When entropy goes up, this price should tend back toward the maximum entropy price which is 50/50. Thus, the sharp downward movement in Nate's forecast is not being counteracted enough by the maximum entropy principle brought on by its sudden volatility.

Following maximum entropy property would also have other implications you could check from any of Nate's models to see if he has them correctly coded. For example, if you have 2 or 3 days of no new information or polls, counter to intuition this does not mean the forecast should stay the same, but rather it should edge back toward 50/50. This is because no new information means the model is more uncertain as to what is happening in reality and therefore there is more entropy.

[Anonymous No.12089559]

I wanna start reading the series. What should be my reading order?

[Anonymous No.12089901]

>>12089559
1,2,3.....

[Anonymous No.12091298]

>>12089182
lol

[Anonymous No.12091687]

>>12085998
Can none of you followers answer this?

[Anonymous No.12091703]

>>12091687

>Does he discuss anything about physical limits imposed by physics/thermodynamics?

I don't recall seeing him discuss such things

>What's his theory of human behavior?

Every book of his treats human behavior. Are you looking for some programmatic statement that encapsulates his worldview?

[Anonymous No.12091815]

>>12089182
Ahem.

[Anonymous No.12091837]

>>12087131
Nate Silver's a fig and so are you for caring about based Taleb's opinion of that charlatan

[Anonymous No.12091944]

>Less favorable reviews include Michiko Kakutani of The New York Times, who described the book as being "maddening, bold, repetitious, judgmental, intemperate, erudite, reductive, shrewd, self-indulgent, self-congratulatory, provocative, pompous, penetrating, perspicacious and pretentious."[35] Taleb responded in turn by noting one of five errors from her review and questioning "Is she crazy enough to engage a technical subject without asking for specialist advice, or even engaging in something as basic as Google search?"[36]

>Some of the negative reviews focus on Taleb's style and the overall structure of the book, particularly the difficulty to easily summarize on a cursory review. So although the book has a table of contents, chapter summaries and map, a summary of the book is difficult to discern as the content headers and summaries have no noticeable pattern and many of the titles are abstruse (e.g., Hungry Donkeys) which according to the author is by design intended to handicap book reviewers, forcing them to read the book in its entirety.[37]

based
seriously though antifragile is great

[Anonymous No.12092236]

>>12091815
Top kek, didn't know he was THIS obsessed with proving his non-arab heritage. What does he even claim to be, then? He wuz romans and greeks?

[Anonymous No.12092270]

>>12092236
Phoenician. He wants Lebanon, and the Med in general, to de-Arabize the way Malta did. And I suspect the Greeks and Italians to de-Germanize but that's less personal. Make the Med Great Again.

[Anonymous No.12092283]

>>12092236
it's because he's lebanese m8. Arabs and Muslims were a slight problem there in the past century

[Anonymous No.12092320]

>>12086077
>those gums
run for your life

[Anonymous No.12092371]

There's a 4chan board completely dedicated to philosophy, you know?
Fucking hate that we still only have one rule for /lit/. I'm sick of this shit. I don't come here to listen to people argue about abstractomodorealist mono-objectiphoriframism vs pseudo-constructivistic socio-real platostotle absolutism

[Anonymous No.12092390]

>>12092371
what the fuck are you talking about

[Anonymous No.12092393]

>>12092371
why are the purity autists always so butthurt

[Anonymous No.12092426]

There's a 4chan board completely dedicated to philosophy, you know?
I don't come here to listen to people argue about abstractomodorealist mono-objectiphoriframism vs pseudo-constructivistic socio-real platostotle absolutism, I come here to argue about that dumb method of exaggeration I just used.

[Anonymous No.12092429]

>>12092393
Because it leads to science vs. religion threads and other bullshit.

[Anonymous No.12092446]

>>12092429
And its literally a completely different topic. Its like posting a book about gardening, not discussing how the book is written or anything like that, and instead arguing about gardening.

[Anonymous No.12092555]

>>12085903
Unironically thank you for this, I feel hyped and ready to read this, do you guys recommend Antifragile as a start for this guy?

[Anonymous No.12093726]

>>12086077
shitty tattoos = turbo slutwhore

[Anonymous No.12093790]

>>12092426
No there isn't.

[Anonymous No.12093810]

can someone explain me a bit about the guy in question?

[Anonymous No.12093826]

>>12092236
Um, sweetie, non-Whites care an awful lot about race and ethnicity and take it quite seriously

[Anonymous No.12093846]

>>12093810
He founded the Taliban.

[Anonymous No.12093917]

some stunning insight from nnt

[Anonymous No.12094185]

>>12085899
pop math backing pophilosophy

trash

[Anonymous No.12094310]

taleb is the ultimate pleb filter
i just have to look at the reviews on german amazon..
"Taleb is so full of himself" blablabla
oh poor little german sissy, you want to read a book by an author without any selfesteem?
well, go read Kafka, faggot, fits you shabbos goyim better anyway

[Anonymous No.12094320]

>>12094310
So Kafka is the ultimate pleb filter

[Anonymous No.12094325]

>>12094320
yeah he lets all the plebs pass through
if i would receive one euro for every person that told me he read metamorphosis, i would move my ass to thailand to bang ladyboys and invest the rest of my money in chainlink

[Anonymous No.12094327]

>>12091944
>by design intended to handicap book reviewers, forcing them to read the book in its entirety.[37]
How can one man be so based?

[Anonymous No.12094330]

>>12094325
Linklet detected

[Anonymous No.12094449]

>>12094185
klueless nate silver visits 4chan

[Anonymous No.12094574]

Taleb has the freedom to call a spade a spade because he has the fuck you money and the flaneur personality for it. He doesn't have to huck bullshit economics or statistics to DC suits and thinktanks to stay relevant, or churn out clickbait journalism for liberals, which is why he upsets the idiots and NPCs and Twitter morons so much. Plus he deadlifts; have you even seen Nate Silver?

A sign of our cucked times that a man standing up for himself and his beliefs and poking fun at our elites is 'problematic'.

[Anonymous No.12095369]

>>12094574
He does it in a very aggressive and spergy way.

[Anonymous No.12095620]

This thread is pretty divided, is this guy /lit/ approved or not?

[Anonymous No.12095636]

>>12095620
He's alri
Don't bother reading his books though.
You can get the gist of everything meaningful he has to say from watching an hour or two of his talks on youtube.

He's got 2, maybe 3 important ideas.

[Anonymous No.12095639]

>>12095620
In my opinion it's worth reading. He got somehow a meme, because a lot of people are hyping his works, people quote him out of context and on twitter he is somehow special. Just buy one of his books (e.g. Antifragile) and make your own opinion. I liked all of his works, I found a lot of other interesting books thanks to him. he has a lot of referrences to classic literature.

[Anonymous No.12095721]

>>12087331
>Is Antifragile accessible enough to be understood by a pleb with minimal understanding of economics?
It was written by one, so yes.

[Anonymous No.12095872]

>>12085899
Fuck your trite shilling of this moron orangutan

We all know you get paid streetshitter pennies for spamming this shitstain, but it's

Every. Fucking. Day.

[Anonymous No.12095919]

>>12095721
Lmao

[Anonymous No.12095927]

>>12095872
if it leads to one more sale, it was worth it.
optionality.

[Anonymous No.12095992]

Why are there racist plebs in every thread these days?

[Anonymous No.12096010]

>>12095927
Which is why the internet is now a wasteland of shit

[Anonymous No.12096029]

>>12095992
the definition of racist expanded to encompass literally everyone

[Anonymous No.12096045]

>>12095992
Because racism is extremely obviously true, and now that the prestige of academics and the press is in question and people don't care what names theyre called, it is being realized by millions of people that they have been lied to.

[Anonymous No.12096067]

>>12087149
>His destruction of Mary Beard for her historical revisionism still makes me erect
What?

[Anonymous No.12096085]

>>12087230

>People who are even a little statistically inclined can recognize that, for example, in 2016 when 538 gave trump a 30% chance on Election Day, when everybody else was giving him between a 1%-5% chance, they did indeed make a better model than everybody else. And a 70-30 split is exactly consistent with say, the 30 side winning the college but the 70 side winning the most votes by a large margin.

Fucking kek! Holy shit, is there anything funnier than statistics being explained by the 'lil statistically inclined?

[Anonymous No.12096110]

>>12085998
>Does he discuss anything about physical limits imposed by physics/thermodynamics?
I am phoneposting so wont elaborate lengthly. but he works also with equilibria and mechanisms of dynamic shifts. antifragile is the most important book in this matter for you. as for your second question, you can have a feel from this blog applying his methods to understanding religion for example:
https://medium.com/@gore.burnelli/how-nassim-taleb-changed-my-mind-about-religion-d832349c510

[Anonymous No.12096123]

>>12087076
you forgot Bed of Procrusess, his philosophy distilled in his aphorisms

Never Forget Bed of Procruses

[Anonymous No.12096212]

>>12087977
fragility - overspecialization, can grow only in static environment, gets rekt on first signs of change, volatility or uncertainty
robustness - always stays the same, like rock. doesnt give a fuck if envoronment is in equilibrium or volatility. will not dissapear, but also will not grow.
antifragile - grows and gets stronger the more volatility there is in the system, it gains from uncertain environment

[Anonymous No.12096230]

>>12089372
where are the taleb haters, nate's fans now?

[Anonymous No.12096234]

>>12089559
buy the whole incerto

[Anonymous No.12096242]

>>12096045
>I just discovered this based place called /pol/ and we're taking over the world tomorrow
cringe & rebbit

[Anonymous No.12096247]

>>12096242
yeah reddit, the place that bans racism and any talk about it
nobody takes antiracism seriously anymore except complete faggots

[Anonymous No.12096258]

>>12096085
It's what all the libtards say, they're as monolithically brainwashed on this as anything else. It doesn't seem to occur to their pea brains that the quality or lack thereof of a statistical prediction cannot be judged by comparison to other nonstatistical predictions. The whole "30% is better than anyone else!" literally ignores basic facts about statistics and human behavior (i.e., 30% is a measure of his modeling volatility and error rate, no one woke up on election day rolling dice to decide their fucking vote), especially when you factor in Nate's total and complete predictive failure for the entire election cycle. People defending him are like retards legitimizing the astronomer who believes in ether just because the other ones say the Moon is made of cheese.

The default odds for any situation with only 2 outcomes is 50-50. Nate shills trying to defend him are literally arguing that it's somehow good that he's less reliable than a blind hobo flipping a coin. He sampled polls that were already skewed, added his own skew to them arbitrarily that only amplified their faults, and then to cover his ass pinned everything on the Comey letter swinging everything when his own fucking polls showed the trends changing days before it.

[Anonymous No.12096264]

>>12093917
He's right
t. related to a famous italian crime family. My haplogroup is J2a1b1.

[Anonymous No.12096268]

>>12096234
real talk though his aphorisms were very mediocre and not at all to the standard of his long form books.

[Anonymous No.12096273]

>>12096268
Were his aphorisms longer than tweets?

[Anonymous No.12096283]

>>12094310
>pleb filter
you meant pseud filter (against IYIs)

[Anonymous No.12096285]

>>12096247
>nobody takes antiracism seriously anymore
>t. I literally never get out of my basement and only ever browse /pol/
BASED

[Anonymous No.12096295]

>>12096285
gl dealing with the loss of monopoly of opinion

[Anonymous No.12096320]

>>12096242
>I have no argument

[Anonymous No.12096325]

>>12096295
>>12096320
GAMERS RISE UP

[Anonymous No.12096329]

>>12096325
BELIEVE WOMEN DUDE

[Anonymous No.12096345]

>>12096212
Thanks.

I will get around to reading to book eventually, but at least this means I'm not thinking about this stuff at cross purposes to everyone else when I see it discussed.

[Anonymous No.12096349]

Infinite Jest

[Anonymous No.12097234]

>>12095872
t. non-deadlifter

[Anonymous No.12097253]

>>12096329
I believe they can suck my fat hog

[Anonymous No.12098858]

What do you all deadlift, bros? Not exactly /fit/ here, but 3x8 of 225

>haven't deadlifted in a while so probably less tbqh

[Anonymous No.12098916]

So is he a modern day stoic?

[Anonymous No.12099377]

>>12098858
Last best 5rm was 265lbs/120kg

[Anonymous No.12100714]

>>12096234
Is Taleb the only modern author with a big enough ego to do something like make a multi volume work called "Incerto"?

[Anonymous No.12100807]

>>12100714
Hi, I'm afraid I do not understand what you mean. Could you please rephrase for me?

[Anonymous No.12100852]

>>12086077
>beat happening tattoo
only good thing happening in that photo

[Anonymous No.12101216]

Taleb is absolutely based. It's so refreshing to see a public intellectual who

1. calls out fake experts and intellectual idiots on a daily basis
2. is well versed in a lot of academic fields including humanities
3. is well versed in philosophy and applies philosophy to his daily life
4. is not a scienticist and understands the importance of religion
5. does ground breaking research in his own field, while still maintaning his public intellectual status. (Compare this with hacks like Dawkins, a brilliant biologist who became famous with bashing religion)
6. doesn't write cheap bestseller books pretending to solve hard philosophical problems with some language tricks and neuroscience (like that hack Sam Harris)

The public intellectual we need.

[Anonymous No.12102274]

When will we see a audio/video Incerto?

Something like Freakonomics did?

[Anonymous No.12103184]

>>12102274
The Freakonomics documentary was shit compared to the book. Felt like a few youtube videos stitched together.

[Anonymous No.12104301]

nigger

[Anonymous No.12105634]

>>12100807
Most people just write stand-alone books now.

[Anonymous No.12105842]

>>12096234
>mfw Random House actually releases a deluxe edition of the big books Incerto
Pre-ordered, arriving June 2019.

[Anonymous No.12106947]

>>12095620
he rules, his books rule

[Anonymous No.12107705]

I started with Skin in The Game but I'm shit at arithmetics and mathematics in general. What should I read next? I couldn't understand anything past the glossary at the end.