/lit/ - Literature

Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism

Anything that involves insider trading, blackmail, or sabotage because it is impossible to get rich quick with the stock market otherwise. There is no bigger sign of a brainlet than someone who holds stocks and finance in high esteem. They never heard of the EMH. "Machine Learning" is nothing more than an alibi for insider information. Of course they would say it would advance and p-hack results to show that some computer program and not their uncle in congress is what gave them such a tremendous gain. You are a brainlet OP.

>>13990504
A shocking amount of projection.

>>13990504
I can tell you have lost a lot of money as a result or bad decision making.

>>13990504

>>13990504
This is your brain on humanities.

>>13990504
>thinking EMH is a reality and not an ideal towards which the market strives
Lay off the wikipedia lad.

Bump.

It is an undeniable fact that there is not enough of everything to satisfy everyone.
Therefore whatever system of economics you shill it is fundamentally about dividing up what is.
God does not play accountant.

>>13990811
Yeah, he doesn’t play anything because a moral incarnation of God does not exist. The capital markets are supposed to channel the funds to to most efficient users of said funds. Economics 101 is scarcity, what is your point?

>>13990504
> the schizo brainlet
Get back to checking out my books, library bitch

>>13990504
this lmao, nothing more pathetic than financial/econ fags.
t. friends with an actual jewish banker who dropped out of high school

>>13990504
based. fuck economics and fuck finance.
>>13990865
schizos are delusional enough to think they can hit it big in the stock markwt.

>>13990866
>wanting to prosper in the prevailing system by studying the prevailing system
>pathetic
Choose one.
>>13990873
>implying now opportunities exist in literally the only place where investing your money will show any semblance of sustainability.
It really fucking reeks of basement dwelling neets with no obligation to manage their own finances or provide for themselves in here.

>>13990990
no, not now.

>>13990990
Neckbeards btfo.

Does anybody have experience with this?

/lit/ doesn’t into money

>>13990488
Read Soros

>>13990504
The really bitter pill is that machine learning is nothing but p-hacking, just presented in such obscure terms that most people can't keep track of them long enough to notice. That said, I think there's an element you're missing: since the stock market is a feedback system, big players can "create the patterns." That is, a price increase is nothing but someone buying up stock, and since short-term prices are just tea-leaf reading (used to be called "technical analysis," now called algorithmic trading), the biggest players have the power to directly influence a stock to drive the predictions of the smaller players--in other words, the other way to get rich is to sell tea leaves.

If there is any good financial information, it will not be shared with you. Why would authors need to profit off of these books if the tactics they describe make money? Have a big think about that.

>>13992185
Because they love the field. You are overly skeptical. Why does anybody share anything? Also the information is larger than the individual, smart people catch on.

I have a degree in finance from an Ivy League school. You can't get rich quick, just like >>13990504 says. EMH is law. You should still invest, just in index funds, but like don't expect to get rich quick. It's just a place to park your money and get some returns.

The only way to make a lot of money when you already have some through investment is by getting good deals through sheer cash volume, in like real estate or purchasing businesses or something.

>>13990631

>he hasn't heard of micro efficient, macro inefficient

>>13992173
Well put, but at the end of the day there are physical drivers underlying the price. No matter how smart a machine is, there are ultimately humans managing the companies which they are analyzing and that human element seeps through to the market.

>>13992208
>You can't get rich quick, just like >>13990504 says.
Unless you are a genius and actually advance towards the ideal by finding inefficiencies and exploiting them thus creating a response and mending the inefficiencies.

Theoretically arbitrage opportunities do exist. Finding them is the challenge, and in fact it's the same challenge we've tackling since the dawn of time.

>>13992208
You can get rich through an element of luck and superior intuition of the market. EMH is law theoretically; empirically there are substantial deviations. Its called the g- and f-factors, greed and fear.

>>13992204
>Because they love the field.
Which is exactly why they wouldn’t sell a book for profit. If the information isn’t free, you’re being scammed.

>>13992233
This

>>13992208
>You should still invest, just in index funds
Is this the result of the fabled Ivy League financial degree? Investment advice my 15 year old cousin hands out? Portfolios with exactly 0 diversity?

>>13992251
There is absolutely no reason why you shouldn’t make money off a passion, and in fact, they deserve to be rewarded for their contribution. Your perception is skewed by paranoia.

>>13992233

>Theoretically arbitrage opportunities

ya if youre rentech and you have 50 guys with PhDs in computational quantum physics then yeah okay you can find inefficiencies, otherwise you are shit out of luck

>>13992238

>superior intuition of the market

cool it gramps, shits different from when you grew up

>>13992266
No, it isn’t. Like I said, they would not need to profit off of these tactics if these tactics truly made money. Plugging your ears and saying “la la la I can’t hear you” doesn’t change that.

>>13992208
There is something I sort of worry about with this whole dogma of index funds. So you've got something like VOO, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, which in fact owns the underlying stocks, and buys and sells them as people buy and sell VOO. But since the S&P 500 (the aggregate that financial sportscasters go on about) is cap-weighted, that should mean that, if a stock in the aggregate goes up relative to other stocks in the aggregate, that it'll also start accounting for more of the aggregate (since its capitalization went up).
Now, in order to credibly mirror the S&P aggregate, VOO has to periodically rebalance its portfolio according to changes to both the actual list of stocks tracked, and to their capitalization. This should mean that, if a stock goes up relative to the aggregate, that VOO now has to buy more of it to keep on target, thereby (ceteris paribus) increasing its price and therefore its capitalization.
Unless I'm wrong in some important way about the mechanics of index funds, I think this means that, for now, other stock-trading effects damp out the obvious positive feedback loop. But if index funds continue taking over the stock ownership zeitgeist, it seems to me that we could be in for a wild ride.

>>13992259
You mean absolute diversity... it’s clear to see you have no idea what you are talking about. ETF = market return.

>>13992268
The market is not entirely rational. Shit may be different but the fundamentals are still the same. And there will always be certain individuals who generate greater returns than others based purely on their decision making.

>>13992259

buying a market index fund is literally diversification you fucking mongolian retard

>>13992273

The market is efficient. If that were a real effect, if the price of these equities were bid up by index funds in a recursive loop, investors would take advantage of the price deviating from its 'actual' value and bid it down through shorts. The equilibrium is restored very quickly. have faith in the market, my friend. Thousands of millionaire Jews can't be wrong

>>13992270
Most of the valuable information is in academic book which are published by universities. The problem you have is that you somehow think it is impossible for the field of finance to develop without the existence of a profit incentive. How the fuck do you think global capital markets function without a theoretical framework to provide structure? Wake up.

>>13992268
Or if you like trees and know eucalyptus trees get real flammable when they mature one might short a realty derivative back in the day.

Besides some of us are trying to get our foot in the door of rentech/2sigma/somewhere similar, to BE one of those guys.

>>13992208
>EMH is law

>>13992273
The price goes up as a result of the index funds adjusting to the market cap; the price goes down as other investor deem the stock overvalued and take profits.

>>13992305
I'm basically willing to believe that there's a future money-making opportunity in learning Vanguard's rebalancing schedule, but it also means that VOO is going to lose value over time. Which in fact means that the whole "just buy index funds" wisdom only works as long as index funds only account for a minority of actual stock transactions.

>>13992305
The market is not efficient, it strives towards efficiency and thus becomes imperfectly/partially efficient, hence the existence of arbitrage.

I'm a math major and this is somehow related to finance idk

>>13992273
>>13992305
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3451462

>>13992327
If there were only index funds, then capital would by its very not be flowing towards economic ends. All stock are essentially based on value-producing assets. What did you think differentiates this world from crypto?

>>13992343
Firms will still be competing among themselves in the actual business environment. The fact that you benefit from both sides of the situation does not mean competition does not exist.
Also, one speculative journal does not make a case.

>>13992345
And yet I'm not the one telling everyone to buy index funds.
Also the better question is, what differentiates crypto from forex, but the answer is "state power." I don't imagine that EMH types are very happy with that answer.

>>13992345
>All stock are essentially based on value-producing assets.
A long time ago people came up with the idea of intangible assets. At first it was just stuff like patents and trademarks but over time, more and more immaterial assets were created and sold and put on balance sheets as corporate bonds, credit derivatives, hybrid securities, etc, etc. A corporation is just a bunch of immaterial assets and liabilities. A corporations failure or successes depends on how much credit it can raise i.e. can it sell the promise of future success.

>>13992360
Define "competition" here.

>>13992327

I believe the current estimate is that only 10% of the market needs to be involved in price discovery aka active management, up to then there will be enough active capital flowing to keep markets efficient. so don't worry about utit

>>13992370
I wasn’t the one advocating a pure investment in ETF either. I believe they should form a part of your portfolio, not comprise it.
If you mean underlying economic power, then sure, and I don’t see how that is at odds with EMH. Stronger economies can purchase more goods and service from weaker economies, including business, in order to utilize then more efficiently.

>>13992329

There is no arbitrage, why do you keep saying that as though you're smart? There is no arbitrage for you, only for multi billion dollar firms that have nanonsecond fiber optic connections to markets. as a singular investor, your literal best option no matter what is to buy ETF market funds. That's literally it. You'd have to be a complete fucking moron to do anything else.

>>13992384
Indeed, but the intangible assets represent the going concern value that the corporation generates by using the physical assets to generate larger revenue streams than an otherwise smaller entity would. Intangible does not mean nonexistent, its just that we don’t have a clear cut method of measuring things such as goodwill or even IT systems and code for that matter.

>>13992384

Jesus christ, buddy. I don't shit out incorrect platitudes about what you study, maybe you should respect economics a bit more

>>13992384
Competition... individual entities competing for a limited amount of available consumer cash liquidity.

>>13992417
It doesn’t matter if it exists for myself or large corporations, the existence of arbitrage disproves a pure EMH. Instruments can still be undervalued or overvalued with respect to their intrinsic worth. There isn’t even consensus on whether CAPM or APT is the truer model. Just because arbitrage smoothed out rapidly does not imply that the market is completely efficient, only that prices are forced to coincide in real time across numerous markets.

>>13992387
But the actual issue is, as many people have pointed out, large-scale index rebalancing represents a (potentially quite large) arbitrage opportunity. If this arbitrage becomes big enough, it could substantially cut into the gains of index funds, since (to put the "other investors will short after the rebalance") this amounts to an index fund buying overpriced stocks.
I don't imagine it's possible to know the cutoff point where, e.g., VOO actually has no returns at all, but this does seem to be a seriously underappreciated risk of index investing.

>>13992404
What should constitute the rest of the average person's 401(k)? Other index funds? This is an especially pressing question, since most 401(k)s are set up as mutual funds...
I guess the point where the forex/crypto divide becomes relevant with respect to the EMH is, if crypto achieved its dream of actually being primarily about transaction of goods and services, then the average econ grad's answer to "what separates forex from crypto?" would be, nothing at all. But I know, and I think you know, that it won't play out like this. Why not? Because states have the power to force people to use their money, and that power doesn't exist for crypto, and in fact that power displaces most of the potential use of crypto. The situations that crypto-apologists go on about, i.e., some third-world shithole, are cases where the state is so weak that it can't keep economic control over its people.

>>13992427
>intangible assets represent the going concern value that the corporation generates by using the physical assets

Intangible assets (e.g. goodwill or patent protection) aren't identified with potential serviceability but with factors affecting the distribution of wealth. They're capitalized as a differential advantage and metamorphize into tangible assets according to the exigencies of pecuniary calculation. Value can go up or down without any material change underlying capitalization. The main decision making criteria seems to rest on higher and faster financial profitability of operations and that's totally rational. Any rational soviet of businessmen must in the end curtail industry in order to boost profitability and this can be done through the unemployment of industrial capacity.

>>13992433
More likely mergers financed by our friendly investment banker friends.

>>13992463
What should constitute the rest of the average persons portfolio? Well, a balanced fund of some sort. Including fixed income, property, equity portfolios (not ETFs, but a selection of value stocks) and even gold. It depends on your risk appetite. The reality is that you should ask yourself the question: am I qualified to manage my own finances? Unless you have a decent intelligence and a load of time on your hands, the answer is mostly know. You need to find an financial institution that does a better job at generating alpha than it does at ripping you off. With active portfolio management and risk management through hedging.

What truly separates crypto from currencies is control and regulation as you have said. I imagine it could only become commercial if all the big players come to some sort of agreement on how to manipulate it without threatening their dominion. But I’m speaking out of my depth. It’s all hypothetical. But I’ll still put some percentage in BTC, as pure speculation.

>>13992512
No*, not know.

>>13992463
>states have the power to force people to use their money, and that power doesn't exist for crypto

Maduro wants to make central banking more transparent

https://www.engadget.com/2019/09/29/venezuela-wants-central-bank-to-hold-bitcoin/
>... Bloomberg tipsters say the country's central bank is testing the possibility of holding on to cryptocurrencies in order to help the state-controlled oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA. The firm reportedly has troves of bitcoin and ethereum, and moving that money to the central bank might let it pay suppliers and avoid "potential blocks" from conventional channels that would come with either direct crypto payments or regular money.
>The bank is likewise considering proposals to count cryptocurrencies toward international reserves that have plummeted in recent years.

Venezuela had a ton of gold and it did shit all for them, goldbugs might learn a lesson here.

>>13992511
Market value can go up or down without any material change underlying capitalization, but not intrinsic value. Obviously not all intangible assets are an accurate representation of the reality they represent. But they do represent value generation, for instance when a team of skilled workers strategize and out perform an industry as a result of ‘intellectual capital’. As time goes on this is reflected in the market price as the companies cash flows increase. I don’t really take too much issue with your definition of intangibles, but it certainly isn’t the only one.

>>13992512
Well, on this subject, we probably disagree about details more than anything then. It's sort of ironic to consider that the dogma of index investing came about because of various data showing that (after accounting for management fees) index funds outperform active management. Maybe the wheel will turn again in the not-to-distant future, and active management will come back to the fore.
Or I guess the point where we'll truly disagree is, I don't think the average person should be relying on stocks for their retirement. For basically the same reasons, that index funds get riskier the more they account for overall stock ownership, and active management is a big opportunity for Wall Street types to skim off the top. I know you'll say "what other choice do we have?" and I'll say "well there are governments," and you'll say something daft about public finances. The fact is, stock market based retirement is a very recent invention, and the world got by without it.

>>13992548
>intrinsic value
What could this mean in regards to capitalization? Capitalization is a pecuniary transaction whose magnitude is determined simply by appraising the gain expected from ownership. Absolutely anything that can yield an income can and eventually will be capitalized. So unlike the marginalist want to believe it doesn't necessarily have anything to do with output, production or "serviceability" per se.

>>13992550
There are active managers that out perform index funds consistently. They are in the minority, most firms are incompetent, your job as client is to find the right service provider.
Secondly, I wouldn’t have said anything about public finances, because I wouldn’t know what you are implying by just saying there are governments. Are you implying the systems that are in place are sufficient? That depends on your country of origin. Are you saying the system is broke and governments should look after their citizens better? Well, that’s not a bet I’m willing to take, the future is uncertain. Are you implying that the government provides retirement plans that are competent? Well, then they’ll be making use of the capital and fixed income markets anyway.
By preempting my question concerning alternatives you haven’t achieved much, we are back to the matter hand, which is equity. The world might have gotten by without it, but the world did not compete with inflation in the same way. What more is there to say?

>>13992591
All I’m saying is that if the capitalization represented the underlying reality of the entity precisely - including accurate (and entirely hypothetical) measures for intangible assets - the intrinsic value would move up or down in response to changes in those records, whereas market price might not. The point being that if accurate accounting took place, the intangibles assets would represent a real value. Essentially the mismatch between the intrinsic value of a company and its market value proves that EMH is only a partial truth, not an absolute.

>>13990864
My point is that the end of the day what you are arguing about has no solution, and in fact it is quite trivial

>>13990627
Tfw best reply has no bumps

>>13992634
Just because it has no perfect solution doesn’t mean life ceases. Some economic system do it better than others. If you are striving for an idealistic utopia, real life is not for you - that, in fact, seems quite trivial to me in relation to the actuality.

>>13992642
There is nothing "better" you pseud. Your metrics do not allow you to make such an assesment. You are not improving precision or converging to some system

>>13990488
Semi-related but I'm looking for anything and everything about selling, client communication and any tactics that could help me as a salesman. I'm embarking in a freelancing journey and I quickly realized how incredibly crucial it is to master these things. Pitching, marketing, influencing, hell, even NLP... Give me anything, I'll check it. It's terribly hard to filter the normie fluff from the actual knowledge, also this board barely covers these topics and /biz/ is the land of the cryptoshills. Any external resource is also welcome.

>>13992653
Some economic systems allocate capital more efficiently. Don’t bring your moralistic subjective mumbo jumbo into this.

>>13992669
Carnegie’s how to brainwash yourself and act like a good bee.

>>13992769
pretty cool Lincoln biography though

>>13992778
Meh.

don't you die on me I need to become a jew

>>13992669
like lifting the only way to do this is to talk to lots of people, all the time, and be genuinely interested in doing it. memorizing a bunch of rules will make you an insincere drone and all but the most oblivious will instantly detect that. practice practice practice