/lit/ - Literature

I read this article about a population biologist turned "mathematical historian" Peter Turchin. He has developed a research program he calls Cliodyanamics, which applies statistical methods to find patterns in history and make predictions about it. He compares himself to Hari Seldon, the scientist in Asimov's Foundation series who uses a technique he calls psychohistory to mathematically predict that the empire will collapse in the near future.

Ten years ago he predicted that 2020 would be a year of great civil unrest. Lo and behold, the prophecy came true. Conventional historians--mathematical illiterates all--hate him because he uses this one simple trick of statistical regression to devise grand theories of history while they are stuck in a purely descriptive view of historiography concerned with names and dates.

And Turchin has politically incorrect conclusions. For example, war is what fueled the development of civilization.

And what leads to social unrest is often the overproduction of elites. Too many educated people are produced and yet the number of elite positions in society remains fixed. Thus, like the spurned lawyers and journalists who organized and led the French Revolution (Robespierre, Danton, Barbaroux, Murat, Barère), if you can't join em, beat em. They rebel against the system they can't be a part of. Eventually governments keep giving handouts to keep people placid, until it goes bankrupt and the situation explodes.

I think Turchin makes a convincing case. The question is, how far are we from the point of no return?