/jp/ - Otaku Culture

[Anonymous No.]

If you roll a 1-million sided die 1 million times, the chances of you landing on 1 million is actually only about 1/3.

[Anonymous No.]

Explain!

[Anonymous No.]

Then roll it thousands of billions times to raise your chances!

[Anonymous No.]

is that so?

[Anonymous No.]

Bullshit, I'll land the 1 million on the first try.
I'm 1337 just like that.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054059
what

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054094

If you roll a 1 million sided die it will just keep rolling since it's actually a ball.

[Anonymous No.]

Clever troll
4/10

[Anonymous No.]

GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

[Anonymous No.]

1 - (1/1000000)^1000000

[Anonymous No.]

if you roll three 6 sided dice the chances of getting one six are less than 3

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054451

>less than 3

<3

[Anonymous No.]

I'd give 7/10

A mathematical flaw that is so blatant that it makes one wonder if it's really true

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054106
Ball = Perpetual potions device?

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054473
>7/10
FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF ME QUEMO XD

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054106
It really would be and it would still be a pretty big ball.
I've seen a d100 die, the thing was as big as a golf ball and it was still pretty much a ball.
You couldn't even tell whet number it was on half the time.

Another thing is that almost no die is truly ever neutral.
Most die are made out of cheap recycled plastic or some other such substance, and of course different materials have different weights.
It affects the die in such a small amount though you're likely to never notice.

[Anonymous No.]

This troll is correct. He never stated what is written on the sides or whether all sides have equal side of coming down. I'll just write 1 million on one third of the sides.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054548
>I'll just write 1 million on one third of the sides.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054548
yeah rolling that thing 1 million times is gonna spike up the probability to about 1

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054555
Yeah the millionth side will have 1 million written on only one third of it

[Anonymous No.]

Whoops, misread the post. 0.999999^1000000 = 0.37ish, yeah.

[Anonymous No.]

ITT: /jp/ fails at math.

Chance = 36.8% to land on 1million at least once out of 1 million rolls.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054575
>>2054577

ITT retards,

1 - .999999^1000000 lrn2basicstatistics

[Anonymous No.]

How the fuck will a die with 1 million sides look like?

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054602

Somewhat like this, but with numbers all the fuck over it.

[Anonymous No.]

Probability = chances of outcome / amount of possible outcomes

for a million sided dice there are 1,000,000 outcomes the odds of getting a specific one are 1/1,000,000

roll it a million times and it is 1,000,000/1,000,000

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054619

of course

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054619
HURR DURR

So you're saying that if I flipped a coin two times I should have 100% chance of getting any one side?

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054619

>the odds of getting a specific one are 1/1,000,000

Lower, actually.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054619
underage ban, seriously. either that or this country's education is more of a shithole than I imagined.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054627
no but you would most likely get a head, since in say a million throws you will get a fairly spread out distribution the highest distribution will fall on a 1/2

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054626
why would it be lower?

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054627
Why yes. There is a 100% chance that you'll flip a side.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054627
no such thing as 100% chance no matter how many times you flip it

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054638
I was responding to >>2054619,
according to him, 1 millions rolls of 1/1,000,000 chance dice means 1,000,000/1,000,000. which means that two flip of a coin of 1/2 chance means 2/2 chance.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054619
>roll it a million times and it is 1,000,000/1,000,000
No it isn't.

Like >>2054627 said with flipping a coin, the odds do not increase to 100% for the second flip if it didn't come up the first time.

This said using probability laws the more you do it the more likely it is to come up.
The chances will never reach 100% however as no matter how many times you do something there is still other possibilities for it to land on.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054626

so you are saying that each side has a less than 1/1,000,000 chance meaning that its possible to not get any side?

[Anonymous No.]

nice troll thread here no way this many people could be so incredibly stupid

[Anonymous No.]

.632 probability shitfucks

now let this thread die

[Anonymous No.]

I love this thread so much.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054652
what he probably meant was >>2054637

your highest chance of getting it is on your millionth roll if you have not trolled it yet

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054661
there is no probability, it is impossible to know beforehand when the predicted outcome will appear

[Anonymous No.]

You know, probability doesn't matter because Bern rolls the die INFINITELY, not matching the chance bar in roll count.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054673
probability doesn't depend on actual outcome dumbass

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054668

your chance of rolling a certain number is the same on every roll, its not like every time you roll the dice whatever number you rolled dissapears and is replaces with what you want to roll... ill use the coin analogy again, you can flip a coin 1000000 times but it each side will still have a 50% chance

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054671
thatsthejoke.jpg
And all of you fucks missed it.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054673

yea thats pretty much what probability is... a measure of how likely something is to happen, it says nothing about what actually happens

[Anonymous No.]

Heres how you do it fail fags
First roll
(1/1,000,000)
Second roll
(1/999,999)
now repeat process and then multiply them and get LARGE NUMBER

then its

1,000,000/LARGE NUMBER

because you can get your number during any of the rolls

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054681
DOES THIS BOARD SERIOUSLY NOT TAKE HIGH SCHOOL MATH.

Probability of independent events can still be calculated, flipping a coin one million times will give you a (1 - .5^10000000) chance of flipping at least one head, or at least one tail.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054683

there is no joke, just shitty trolling.. or really really stupid people

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054699
another dumbass, the rolling of the dice is independent every time

[Anonymous No.]

When did this become /jp/ - High School Math?

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054681
But if you flip a coin 1,000,000 times most of it will fall into a bell curve, the odds of you breaking even will be higher than the odds of getting an extra heads or extra tails.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054694

well obviously the more times you flip a coin the more likely you are to get at least one heads, but for each individual flip the probability is exactly the same.. seems you misunderstood what i was saying and/or i misunderstood what you/that other guy was saying

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054701
but OP wants to know the odds of getting the right number in at least 1 million tries, which can certainly be qualified.

What are the odds of you getting a heads in at least 3 tries?
((1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2)) = 1/8

now you can get a head on any of the 3 tries so its
(1/8) * 3 = (3/8)

so
1-(3/8) = 5/8 chance of getting a head in at least 3 tries

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054706
/jp/ lacks direction. We can be whatever we want to be. Moot should seriously take out Japan/General and just leave it "/jp/ -". We'll just fill the rest.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054668
>if you have not trolled it yet
I think this is a subtle hint as to the content of his post.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054706

when i started fucking my kawaii japanese girlfriend who can only say nya nyu and nyoro~n

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054714
It used to be /jp/ - Just Pedo, but that phase ended. I blame the moderation for allowing the place to become overrun by normalfags.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054718
o shit just realized I fucked up it should be 1/1,000,000 * 1/1,000,000 and not 1/999,999

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054718
What, no. The math is done like so:
p(at least one heads in 3 flips) = 1 - p(no heads at all)

p(no heads at all) = p(all tails) = 1/2^3 = .125

Thus the probability of at least one heads in 3 flips is .875, not .625.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054718
lrn2basicstatistics

IT'S FREAKIN 1 - .5^3 = .875, WHY THE FUCK WOULD YOU MULTIPLY .5^3 BY THREE

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054059
That's only the probability that the millionth or so roll will land on one million, not the probability that it will have landed on one million at least once by one million rolls.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054732
>That's only the probability that the millionth or so roll will land on one million
No, that'd be .000001.

[Anonymous No.]

1 - .999999^1,000,000 = 63%

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054742

So... it's actually 2/3?

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054745
.63 is not really the same as .66 but close enough, yeah.

[Anonymous No.]

sorry for general retardecy /jp/, in my defense it was 7am. forgot the 1 - and misread the question.

[Anonymous No.]

1/e to be precise.

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054767
Ha, good point.

[Anonymous No.]

I love these math troll threads. they always turn into 100 post replies. anyone remember the one the OP added two mixed fractions?

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054794
Nope, do explain

[Anonymous No.]

>>2054803
it was something along the lines of adding one and two-fifths with 4 and three-eighths. much arguing on whether or not the whole number in front of each fraction was either a whole number or a multiplier. turned into a troll fest and eventually other math problems.