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/jp/ - Otaku Culture

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File: 105 KB, 1298x631, chen probability.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035265 No.15035265 [Reply] [Original]

Ah, there seems to be trouble brewing at the Yakumos!
Ran-sama said that if Chen gets the answer right, she gets an extra special present!

Can /jp/ save Chen?!

>> No.15035305

Oh god, I'm terrible at math. 75%?

>> No.15035316

>>15035305
I'll go with 50%.

>> No.15035339

>>15035265
1/3

That was the probability of picking the box with two buns, now that she's locked on that box it's still 1/3.

>> No.15035340
File: 167 KB, 424x600, cirno examines a penis.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035340

>>15035265
This is kind of like the Monty Hall problem but not quite as tricky.

Given that Chen has selected a meat bun, there are three possible situations that she could be in:

1. She has selected the first meat bun from box A.

2. She has selected the second meat bun from box A.

3. She has selected the first meat bun from box B.

In cases 1 or 2, the next bun will also be a meat bun. In case 3, it will be a natto bun. So, the probability is 66.66...% that it will be a meat bun.

>> No.15035342
File: 33 KB, 300x250, 1435672153747.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035342

hey /jp/

>> No.15035357

>>15035340
No, chen is already locked into her box choice..the other boxes don't matter.
She can either pick a natto bun or a meat bun now, so its 50/50, since the box she has, only has one bun left in it...

Its like you don't even want chen to get her special prize.

>> No.15035367
File: 150 KB, 402x625, cirnoinstructing.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035367

>>15035339
1/3 is the probability of her picking two meat buns from the same box from start. But that's not what the question is asking. It's asking, what is the probability that she will pick ANOTHER meat bun, after it being a given that she has already picked one. It's the same kind of trickery that the Monty Hall problem tries to pull on you. Think about it.

>> No.15035371

>>15035340
What's the difference between 1 and 2? Are the meat buns in box A somehow different from each other?

>> No.15035391

>the
>another

these keywords make the question neither difficult nor tricky
i don't know why you even posted this

>> No.15035401
File: 20 KB, 400x450, cirno computer.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035401

>>15035357
No, you are wrong. There were originally three different outcomes, each equally probable. Two of these outcomes will result in another meat bun being picked, and one will not, therefore the probability of another meat bun being picked is 2/3.

The reason this is true is that originally, there was also a chance that Chen could have NOT picked a meat bun. Therefore, it is not a 50/50 chance between boxes A and B, but rather a 66/33.

>> No.15035423

>>15035401
but we aren't arguing if Chen has chances of picking one meat bun, and then another.
She already picked a meatbun. What we are asking is what are the chances that the bun left inside has meat and not natto. Since she only has one bun left in her box, and she already picked the meatbun, it couldn't be the third box It could only be box A or box B that chen has chosen.
She has one bun left in that box, it could either be a meat or natto at this point. So that makes it 50/50.

>> No.15035435
File: 15 KB, 278x510, 1459310932720.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035435

>>15035265

chen

chen

it is 50/50

>> No.15035439

No you baka, >>15035391 is correct. The question is obviously trying to imitate the classic Monty Hall problem, but two keywords make it very clear that the probability only enters the question once it's been narrowed down to 2 boxes.
It's 50/50, but more of an english puzzle than anything to do with math.

>> No.15035446

You all forgot to factor in the possibility of Yukari just gapping the treat and replacing it with something else.
...we might need Ran for this one

>> No.15035467

>>15035367
Yeah sorry, if she's locked on the same box the answer is clearly >>15035357

>> No.15035477

>>15035446

Can we even quantify the probability of Yukari intervening with any level of accuracy? Given we don't how often Yukari is involved with events going on in Gensokyo.

Bit of a small data sample from what we can get from canon.

>> No.15035486

>>15035446
LLLLEEEEEEELLLLLL e/jp/in win /jp/ro XDDDD le yukari gaps are muh favorite meme from le /jp/ XDDD LLLLLLEEEEEEEEEEEELLLLLLLLLL

>> No.15035494

>>15035486

Terrible post.

Ironic shitposting is still shitposting.

>> No.15035498

Just use Bayes' theorem, you faggots.

P(A|M)=P(M|A)*P(A)/P(M)
Where A is the event of Chen picking the first box, and M is the probability of Chen selecting a meat bun.
P(M|A)=1, since all the buns in the first box are meat buns.
P(A)=1/3, obviously.
P(M)=1/2, since half the buns are meat buns. If you want to be autistic about it, P(M)=1*(1/3)+.5*(1/3)+0*(1/3)=1/2.
P(A|M)=2/3.

>> No.15035509

>>15035498
lmao

>> No.15035514

>>15035509
You're welcome.

>> No.15035515

>>15035498
Eto....

Where in the problem that Chen has, gave you the idea to do this;
>Where A is the event of Chen picking the first box, and M is the probability of Chen selecting a meat bun.

Do you even want Chen to win her special prize....

>> No.15035526

>>15035515
He's just using conditioned variables, picking the first box is Chen's winning condition, but picking two meat buns in a row is also another winning condion. And both they're conditioned by each other.

>> No.15035535

>>15035514
The fact chen got a meat bun means there are only two possible boxes she chose. It's a given. The question is now what the possiblity she has either box is, 50%. Which means the possibility she gets meat bun is 50%.
I don't know which of us it is, but one of us couldn't into reading comprehension to save his life.

>> No.15035543
File: 156 KB, 435x551, le_interdimesional_gap_merchant.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035543

You're all forgetting that Yukarin might take the other meat bun

>> No.15035548

>>15035526
>>15035535
Bayes anon is still wrong because like other people in this thread he isn't considering Chen already took a meat bun and excluded the third box from the game.

>> No.15035549

>>15035543

Since it isn't practical to quantify this, we'll have to assume that Yukarin hasn't taken the meat bun.

>> No.15035556

Zero, Yuyuko got to them while you were being nerds.

>> No.15035570 [DELETED] 
File: 590 KB, 640x640, cirno autism.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035570

>>15035423
>>15035435
>>15035439
>>15035467
You damn bakas.

#include <cstdlib>
#include <ctime>
#include <cstdio>

using namespace std;

#define NUM_TRIALS 2

enum Bun {
Meat,
Natto
};

enum Result {
None,
FirstPickNatto,
FirstPickMeatSecondPickNatto,
FirstPickMeatSecondPickMeat
};

int main () {
srand(time(nullptr));

Bun boxes[3][2] = { { Meat, Meat }, { Meat, Natto }, { Natto, Natto } };

double numberOfTimesChenPickedMeat = 0;
double numberOfTimesChenPickedMeatAndThenMeat = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < NUM_TRIALS; i++) {
auto box = rand() % 3;
auto firstBun = rand() % 2;
auto secondBun = firstBun == 1 ? 0 : 1;
if (boxes[box][firstBun] == Meat) {
numberOfTimesChenPickedMeat++;
if (boxes[box][secondBun] == Meat) {
numberOfTimesChenPickedMeatAndThenMeat++;
}
}
}

printf("Probability of picking meat again after picking meat once: %1.2f", numberOfTimesChenPickedMeatAndThenMeat / numberOfTimesChenPickedMeat);

return 0;
}

Probability of picking meat again after picking meat once: 66.74903
Probability of picking meat again after picking meat once: 66.65955
Probability of picking meat again after picking meat once: 66.67439
...etc.

>> No.15035584
File: 290 KB, 580x650, cirno eating frozen watermelon.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035584

>>15035423
>>15035435
>>15035439
>>15035467
You damn bakas.

#include <cstdlib>
#include <ctime>
#include <cstdio>

using namespace std;

#define NUM_TRIALS (1000000)

enum Bun {
Meat,
Natto
};

int main () {
srand(time(nullptr));

Bun boxes[3][2] = { { Meat, Meat }, { Meat, Natto }, { Natto, Natto } };

double numberOfTimesChenPickedMeat = 0;
double numberOfTimesChenPickedMeatAndThenMeat = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < NUM_TRIALS; i++) {
auto box = rand() % 3;
auto firstBun = rand() % 2;
auto secondBun = firstBun == 1 ? 0 : 1;
if (boxes[box][firstBun] == Meat) {
numberOfTimesChenPickedMeat++;
if (boxes[box][secondBun] == Meat) {
numberOfTimesChenPickedMeatAndThenMeat++;
}
}
}

printf("Probability of picking meat again after picking meat once: %1.5f", (numberOfTimesChenPickedMeatAndThenMeat / numberOfTimesChenPickedMeat) * 100.0);

return 0;
}

Probability of picking meat again after picking meat once: 66.74903
Probability of picking meat again after picking meat once: 66.65955
Probability of picking meat again after picking meat once: 66.67439
...etc.

(there we go, don't make fun of my trashcan no bully please)

>> No.15035596

>>15035584
>{ Natto, Natto } };
uhhhh
how did this come into play with the problem in to the OP....?

>> No.15035614

>>15035548
Okay, let's rework this problem assuming that the third box is excluded.
P(A)=1/2
P(M)=3/4
P(M|A)*P(A)/P(M)=1/2 / 3/4 = 2/3

>> No.15035617

>>15035596
The problem implies that ALTHOUGH Chen picked a Meat bun on the first try, THERE WAS A CHANCE that she could have picked a Natto bun on the first try instead. If the problem was changed to say "Chen picks a box at random but Yukari beats her down and makes her pick again if it's the Natto Natto box", then yes, the probability would be 50/50.

>> No.15035622

This is fun.

>> No.15035625

>>15035614
You need to exclude one bun from the equation, P(M) can't be 3/4.

>> No.15035638

>>15035617
>Its a meat bun!
>What is the probability that...
I'm not seeing it!

>> No.15035640

Now let's ignore Chen already got the bun and let's start from 0.

How are you getting the 2/3 result anyway? How can getting two buns in a row have a chance greater chance of getting a single meat bun on the first try?

>> No.15035658

>>15035625
3 meat buns / 3 meat buns and 1 natto bun = 3/4. M is the event that the first bun that she picks is a meat bun.

>> No.15035662

I didn't know autists naturally have poor reading comprehension.

>> No.15035677

>>15035640
Because it's not the chance of getting two meat buns in a row, it's the chance of getting another meat bun after you've already gotten the first one. Those are two very different things. The chance of you 1CCing a game is much better when you are on the final boss without losing a life than it is when you are still on the first stage, right?

>> No.15035695

It's exactly the same as the Monty Hall problem.

>> No.15035701

>>15035662
It's not an issue of reading comprehension, some of the people in this thread are just reasoning incorrectly about probability.

>> No.15035702
File: 296 KB, 750x1000, Another_Dream_Issue_6B_-_074.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035702

>>15035265
Okay, step the fuck back

>> No.15035704
File: 143 KB, 402x295, FireShot Screen Capture #332 - &#039;1404074128821_jpg (immagine JPEG, 400 × 1185 pixel)&#039; - i_4cdn_org_jp_1404074128821.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035704

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

>> No.15035706
File: 24 KB, 1675x877, What am I even doing.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035706

Look guys, I channeled my retardation into 5 min of ms paint. Tell me why I'm too stupid to be trusted with chen's chances of getting her treat so I can move on with my life.

>> No.15035730

Like Cirno said >>15035340


When Chen got the first one she had three possibilities.

She got the left bun of the first box.
She got the right bun of the first box.
She got the second box.

The first two will grant a 100% chance of getting the other one while the other doesn't.
2/3

>> No.15035736

>>15035706
That's not how it works.

>> No.15035753

>>15035706
I don't understand your image, I am sorry.

>> No.15035775

>>15035730
I understand what you're saying actually, but if it's a given that she's already chosen a meat bun then I just can't seem to get why it matters which one she's chosen in box 1. This is I guess what I'm asking. Regardless of which she has chosen( if any) from box one, her chances now seem to still between picking a meat from a box and having chosen box 1, or picking a natto from a box and having chosen box 2.

The first 2 options you listed essentially seem to be the same option listed twice. Maybe I just need to go take a stats class.

>> No.15035790
File: 129 KB, 1202x533, 1459930662839.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035790

It's 1/2.
The reason why is that it's a slightly altered box paradox/Monty Hall question.

>> No.15035797

Being that a cat's sense of smell is about fourteen times more sensitive than a human Chen would be able to smell which are meat buns and which are notto buns without seeing them
All Chen has to do is smell out the meat buns then she'll have two tasty meat buns and the special prize

>> No.15035800
File: 647 KB, 3312x2968, 1447824271083.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035800

>>15035797
EEHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!?!? That's cheating!!!!

>> No.15035808
File: 46 KB, 1000x1000, 1458347790614.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035808

>>15035797

But that's cheating (in spirit, not letter)!

>> No.15035825

>>15035265
50%
If she got one meat bun then either there will be second meat bun or natto bun.

>> No.15035834

>>15035775
>The first 2 options you listed essentially seem to be the same option listed twice.

Yes, it doesn't matter if you pick left or right, but what matter is that you have twice the chance of starting from the first box than the chance you have of starting from the second one.

There's two meat buns on the first while only one on the second. Making them three.

So the first bun can be from:
1) Box one
2) Box one again
3) Box two

After this first bun now we're either on the first box that grants a 100% chance of giving a second meat bun or we're either on the second box, that grants a 0% chance of giving a second meat bun.

Normally with just this you'd think the chance is actually 1/2, but considering the list I made above, we have 2/3 chances of being in the first box while only 1/3 of being in the second one. That's why the probability is 2/3.

I have no idea in what other way I can explain this thing.

>> No.15035838

>>15035834
Read
>>15035790
The question is about the probability of the AB and AA boxes, not finding AA after you found A.

>> No.15035850

>>15035838
No it's not. Anyone familiar with probability will understand how the problem is worded. Here is the wording of the problem in Wikipedia.
>There are three boxes, each with one drawer on each of two sides. Each drawer contains a coin. One box has a gold coin on each side (GG), one a silver coin on each side (SS), and the other a gold coin on one side and a silver coin on the other (GS). A box is chosen at random, a random drawer is opened, and a gold coin is found inside it. What is the chance of the coin on the other side being gold?
They are the exact same situation.

>> No.15035854
File: 136 KB, 1298x631, 1459958325198.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035854

>> No.15035855

>>15035838
To me it looks like that probably /v/ anon is the one who misunderstood the question.

>> No.15035858

>>15035850
No you idiot, it's asking about the boxes. The problem only starts when there are two boxes left. It's not about Finding coin A and then A, it's about find box AA when you have only a choice between AA and AB since BB is not even a factor when the problem starts.

>> No.15035861

>>15035854
Wrong. The problem only starts when there are two boxes left.

>> No.15035862
File: 48 KB, 1675x877, baka.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035862

>>15035706
Fixed it. And I color coded the red lines with a crossing line.

>> No.15035863

>>15035838
Also, just to make my point >>15035855

The problem states "What is the probability ..... takes from THE box will also be ANOTHER tasty meat bun?

If you understand you're picking randomly from any box after the first try I have no idea how your brain works.

>> No.15035868

>>15035858
You only find out that the coin is gold AFTER you pick the box. You don't go:
oh, I am going to get a gold coin, so when picking boxes, I will ignore the third box.

>> No.15035874
File: 1.53 MB, 9000x8541, 1459967228194.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035874

>>15035862
Where did this come from if you can still draw both of the yellow emeralds in the first box?

>> No.15035872

>>15035861
There are two boxes. It's just that one box has two meat buns in it. so it needs to be listed twice.

>> No.15035873

>>15035858
>>15035854
>The problem only starts when there are two boxes left

Exactly, and now you read this >>15035834

The're three scenarios Chen can start with when you have ONLY THOSE TWO boxes, two of them will lead to victory, the other will lead to bukkake.

>> No.15035879

Math is suprisingly bad at probability when you think about it

>> No.15035881

>>15035265
The probability is 2/3.

>> No.15035882
File: 41 KB, 600x600, 1458565782999.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035882

I love these types of problems. They use no difficult math at all, they're just a matter if understanding the exact words used.

It's 2/3, by the way. Read carefully to see it.

>> No.15035893

>>15035879
Exactly how? The mathetical formula in this case gives an easy 2/3, the only problem here is people not understanding how probabilities work.

There's a reason if there's specialized classes for this subject so I can't blame confused /jp/sies.

>> No.15035898

>>15035893
Because a question about the chance of getting a car amongst goats after one goat is revealed is fundamentally different from the chance of a getting a car amongst the doors left.

>> No.15035907

>>15035898
What are you talking about? This has nothing to do with the Monty Hall problem. No one who is saying that it is 2/3 is using the Monty Hall problem to justify it.

>> No.15035914

I'm going to lay this troll thread to rest once and for all with the ACTUAL Monty Hall problem:

"The behavior of the host is key to the 2/3 solution. Ambiguities in the "Parade" version do not explicitly define the protocol of the host. However, Marilyn vos Savant's solution (vos Savant 1990a) printed alongside Whitaker's question implies and both Selvin (1975a) and vos Savant (1991a) explicitly define the role of the host as follows:

1. The host must always open a door that was not picked by the contestant (Mueser and Granberg 1999).
2. The host must always open a door to reveal a goat and never the car.
3. The host must always offer the chance to switch between the originally chosen door and the remaining closed door."

There. Are you faggots done arguing now? The OP does NOT give the ability to change boxes. If the OP had said "if Chen were to switch boxes, what is the probability", it would be 2/3rds. However, since OP very clearly states that Chen HAS to choose from the SAME box, the probability CANNOT be 2/3rds anymore.

This point cannot be argued. Any posts below this one are either retarded faggots continuing to argue because they have nothing better to do with their lives or trolls trolling trolls.

Now stop cluttering up the board with this garbage!

>> No.15035918

>>15035898
Aside the fact this is a whole different problem, are you implying you're not the wrong one but Mathematical theorems are?

This is a new level of ego.

>> No.15035924
File: 73 KB, 1675x877, baka2.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15035924

>>15035874

>> No.15035927

>>15035924
Thanks doc

>> No.15035934

>>15035914
thank you

>> No.15035937

>>15035914
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

>> No.15035940

>>15035914
That's wrong! I don't know why, but it's wrong! You're wrong!

>> No.15035947

The "chen picks a box at random" line is what's confusing people. It's technically true, but also purposefully misleading.

Mathematically, Chen isn't picking a box. She's picking a bun. And there are three possible buns she's picking from.

>> No.15035956

>>15035914
Case closed.

>> No.15035965

Please don't bring trash from another place back here. Only dogs do that.

You think it's funny and people appreciate it, but you only get replies from the same type as you.
Both of you can have such conversations in the original place.

>> No.15035988

>>15035937
>IF that happens to be a gold coin, of the next coin also being a gold coin

a very different question

i know you barely, but please try to do it for what you link to people, thank you very much

>> No.15035994

>>15035988
>There are three boxes, each with one drawer on each of two sides. Each drawer contains a coin. One box has a gold coin on each side (GG), one a silver coin on each side (SS), and the other a gold coin on one side and a silver coin on the other (GS). A box is chosen at random, a random drawer is opened, and a gold coin is found inside it. What is the chance of the coin on the other side being gold?

>> No.15036001

>>15035965
Agreed.

>> No.15036014

>>15035914
1) Read the thread
2) This is not a Monty Hall problem
3) Read >>15035937
4) Read >>15035834

>> No.15036057

>>15035914
Ah the classic "If you reply u a shit!" post, aka the ultimate "I'm right and you're wrong lalalalalala I can't hear you!" tantrum.

>> No.15036077
File: 125 KB, 633x519, 532.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15036077

Help me save Reisen!

>> No.15036079
File: 94 KB, 900x540, 1452942166235.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15036079

I bet you guys you can't solve this!!!

>> No.15036082

Touhou is garbage. There's a reason why moot never loved you

>> No.15036101

>>15036082
haha ok my friend :)

>> No.15036116

>>15036014
Exactly, which is why 2/3rd is wrong.

>> No.15036139

>>15036077
But the picture shows 3 being the poison, Tewi is a fucking liar and should be dicked for it.

Removing the visual clues though, now this is an acutal Monty Hall problem.

>> No.15036144
File: 215 KB, 1280x1024, 5fa0e4957338fbfb33dd093be14da24a.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15036144

>>15036079
TO RA MA RU
SHOU
A TIGER IS A BIG CAT
SO IT HAS MORE CATNESS THAN A LITTLE CAT
THEREFORE SHOU IS CATTEST!

>> No.15036165

>>15036139
You mean epicac, and of course tewi would do something so terrible. She's an awful monster

>> No.15036167

>>15036116
Let's go for the absurd method because that's the easiest way to make anyone understand.

Box 1 has 100 meat buns, box 2 has 1 meat bun and one natto bun, box 3 has 2 natto buns.

Chen picks a meat bun from a random box, thus excluding the third box. Now she's locked on said box and can't switch.

Does now Chen have a 50/50 chance of getting a meat bun? Or it is a 100/101 one?

>> No.15036184

>>15036167
50/50, duh. There's only two boxes with meat buns.

>> No.15036189

>>15036144
No one cares about her.

>> No.15036196

The answer is 50%

XX
XY
YY

Take a box, first pick is X

that means you did not choose box YY, you have chosen either box XY or XX

This means you either have one bun left, X or Y, remaining in the box

50/50 chance.... right?

>> No.15036200

After getting one meat bun, Chen will have a 100% chance of getting another meat bun if she picked the first box and a 0% chance if she picked the second. This evens out to a 50% chance.

>> No.15036203

>>15036196
No. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

>> No.15036209

>>15036184
>>15036196

I know you're joking but I'll explain one last time before completely giving up.

The first time Chen picks up a bun, Chen can pick from any box. So she can either pick the single bun in the second box or one of the 100 buns in the first box.
The probabily ratio as you can see is 100:1.

Make it this way:

XZ

VC

CC

XZV are meat ones, C is crap

It's 2/3 chance of getting either X or Z, aka the buns that will give another bun.

>> No.15036218

>>15036196
There are three possible scenarios, out six total, where a box is picked and then an X is consumed. Out of those three scenarios, two will be followed up with another X consumed, and one will lead to a Y consumed.

So a 66/33 chance

>> No.15036242

>>15036077
Why is Tewi so cruel as to give her more poison?

>> No.15036256

>>15036209
You're given the choice between two boxes when the problem starts. Whether it was chosen at random or not is irrelevant because that was before the question started.
You literally start knowing that the box is either right or wrong.

>> No.15036281

>>15036256
That's not the point.
The point is that by picking the first bun, you have 2 possibilities over 3 to end up in the first box.

You're picking one meat bun from 3, 2 are placed on the first, one is placed on the second.
By starting with one bun it means you're either on the first or second box. And since the first one had 2 buns instead of one chances are you picked the bun on the first. Once again with a 2/3 chance.

>> No.15036300

>>15036281
>You're picking
You've already picked it. You're not picking the meat buns, you're picking the boxes.
>>15036077
Switch, as Reisen picked the bottle before 3 was revealed.

>> No.15036320

>>15036281
Same box.

>> No.15036332

>>15036256
Just read https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox.. Holy shit.

>> No.15036333

>>15036281
You're not picking buns. The probability is the initial probability when picking boxes, which is 1/2.

It's not a box paradox problem.

>> No.15036345

>>15036300
Probability works from known to unknown, not from past to future. Knowing you picked from inside the box gives information about which box was chosen.

>> No.15036348

>>15036300
>>15036333

You're not picking any boxes, this isn't a Monty Hall problem.



There are so many >>15035340 >>15035401
>>15035498 >>15035584 >>15035614 >>15035730 >>15035834 >>15035854 >>15035872 >>15035947 >>15036014
>>15036167 >>15036209 explainations.
And I'm even excluding the contorted (but right) drawings some autist made because they're hard to understand.
If you still don't get it, congrats you're the /jp/ master.

>> No.15036359

>>15036200
It's 100% if she picked the first meat bun, 100% if she picked the second meat bun, and 0% if she picked the third meat bun.

>> No.15036400

>>15036348
It's the same box you idiot. The first component is already solved, as you are left with two boxes. 2/3 only makes sense if the first parfof the problem happened before it started. But really, you start with two choices by the time the problem begins.

>> No.15036411

>>15036400
Hey buddy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

>> No.15036419

>>15036411
OP's problem is not the Box Paradox since you have to use the same box.

>> No.15036421

>>15036400
You start with three >>15036359

Meat bun on the left of the first box. -> This leads to another bun
Meat bun on the right of the first box. -> This leads to another bun
Meat bun on the second box. -> This doesn't

The first box has two chances, not just one. So 2/3

>> No.15036425

>>15036419
>There are three boxes, each with one drawer on each of two sides. Each drawer contains a coin. One box has a gold coin on each side (GG), one a silver coin on each side (SS), and the other a gold coin on one side and a silver coin on the other (GS). A box is chosen at random, a random drawer is opened, and a gold coin is found inside it. What is the chance of the coin on the other side being gold?

Same box.

>> No.15036428

>>15036419
>There are three boxes, each with one drawer on each of two sides. Each drawer contains a coin. One box has a gold coin on each side (GG), one a silver coin on each side (SS), and the other a gold coin on one side and a silver coin on the other (GS). A box is chosen at random, a random drawer is opened, and a gold coin is found inside it. What is the chance of the coin on the other side being gold?
How is this problem different?

>> No.15036436

>>15036400
I'm baffled by how many people seem to never have seen conditional probability before.

>> No.15036439

>>15036421
You start with two.

>> No.15036448

>>15036436
I'm baffled you can't unrestand basic linguistics.

>> No.15036450

>>15036439
Two boxes, but three scenarios.

Box 1 has two scenarios.
Box 2 has only one.

Why? Becase >>15036421

>> No.15036451
File: 7 KB, 236x183, 56ded870f6160f4f0f17ad2e7ca253c118f5cd5f7b41c4b7b6d96193324d558c.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15036451

>>15036348
I get the math, but I honestly remain unconvinced. I'm not quite sure this is a Bertrand's Box Paradox scenario, seeing as the position of the meat buns isn't considered.

I'm probably just being a retard right now.

>> No.15036468

>>15036451
>seeing as the position of the meat buns isn't considered.

It is, not the actual position to the sides though, that doesn't matter even in the wikipedia example. It's a thing to make people understand the stuff easier.

The true key is the fact box 1 has 2 buns and box 2 has 1.

Thus leading to >>15036450 and >>15036421

>> No.15036478
File: 6 KB, 414x248, 4c94cb02dc37b71207f0981f0f53389c3b2f760857fca836b577dd07d0351a0c.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15036478

>>15036468
Yeah, I was just being retarded.

I already knew about both the monty hall and box paradox, but wasn't sure if this problem really applied to it, hence why I posted >>15036451.

Thanks for answering.

>> No.15036495

>>15036450
No. One meat bun has already removed from the box when we start. There is either a meat bun or not when Chen opens it again.

>> No.15036502

This is the best thread on /jp/ in a long time.

>> No.15036503

>>15035265
1 out of 2, Chen.
2 of the boxes have at least 1 meat bun, only 1 of the 2 has 2 meat buns.
BTW, chen, Ran left u some Hot Pockets in the freezer to nuke in the microwave...

>> No.15036516

>>15036077
Please help, time is running out while you've been playing with Chen!

>> No.15036517

>>15036503
"At least" is not enough to describe the situation.
>>15036421

I'm sure that "at least" thought is what tricks everyone.

>> No.15036528

>>15036516
stay with number 1, should be more likely to be the ipecac she deserves

>> No.15036533

>>15036077

Give her both 1 & 2, since there's no condition that says only one.

>> No.15036549
File: 443 KB, 688x850, Touhou Battle Royale ch02.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15036549

>>15036516
Well like the guy said, that is the ACTUAL monty hall problem right? Which means she should.
But turns out that little shit Tewi lied and bottle 3 was actually the ipecac. Goodbye udon.

>> No.15036570

66%
Of the three scenarios in which you pull out a meat bun, two of them are the double-meat-bun box.

See >>15035704.

>> No.15036574
File: 10 KB, 285x188, 1399509878817.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15036574

>>15035265
Natto buns don't really exist.... do they?

>>
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