/jp/ - Otaku Culture

>>15471220
>But I can't figure out how to read discards and sometimes discard the tile others win with.
Basically you need to learn how to defend. When an opponent declares Riichi, think about how many tiles you are away from tenpai, and how much the hand you're going for is worth. Far from tenpai, or cheap hand, or both? In most cases, you should fold. Kokushi musou isshanten? It might be worth the risk depending on point standing. If you fold, tiles that your opponent has already discarded are 100% safe due to the rule of furiten: he cannot declare ron on that tile. Tiles that opponents discard after the Riichi that are not called on are also 100% safe to discard, as declining a win while Riichi'd automatically gives your hand furiten.

When you run out of tiles the opponent discards, you then start going for impossible/improbable waits. Impossible waits, most of the time, are either honor tiles with three already discarded (honor tiles can only make triplets, so if three are already out, no one can be waiting on the last one, UNLESS he's in tenpai for Kokushi Musou but that's extremely unlikely and easy to deduce by his discards), or isolated terminal tiles with three out that are kabe (meaning a valid sequence with the tile is eliminated due to all 4 of a particular tile in that sequence being unavailable, for example, 789man, if all 8 man are out, 789 cannot be formed, so the only valid melds that 9man can be used in are triplets or the pair of 9man).

After you've exhausted impossible waits, you move on to improbable waits, so here you might start dealing honor tiles with one or two out, as they can only complete shanpon or tanki waits. It's never really safe to deal middle tiles of a suit against a Riichi unless they've already been discarded. Most Riichis will be waiting on two sides for their winning tiles, as it is advantageous to do so, but because of this, there are a few tricks you can use to narrow down safe(r) tiles when you've exhausted 100% and 99%-95% safe tiles. This is where the theory of Suji comes in. Suji essentially takes advantage of the fact that a slight majority of Riichis are two-sided waits (60% or so I think was the number I've read), and uses the furiten rule to deduce safe tiles to deal against a Riichi. You'll often see the numbers 1-4-7, 2-5-8, 3-6-9 in reference to Suji, as these are the Suji intervals that you need to remember.

According to Suji, when an opponent has discarded the middle number of one of these three intervals, the outlying numbers are Suji, and safe(r) to deal. Why is this? Let's assume the Riichi-ing player has a 4man in his discard. If we make the assumption that he's using a two-sided wait for his Riichi, then if he had 23man in his hand waiting on a 1man and 4man, he's already discarded one of his winning tiles, so even if he was using that shape (unlikely), he couldn't declare Ron because of furiten. So from this, 1man is safe(r) than a non-suji tile, because he's either not using the 23man shape for his wait, or he's in furiten for 1,4man and can only win by Tsumo. It's also important to note that if only one of the outlying numbers of the Suji intervals are discarded, for example, 7man, 4man is still dangerous to deal because it can be completed with a 23man wait. The 4 man with a 7man in the discards is considered half-suji; it's not as safe as a suji tile, but safer than a non-suji tile because it completes less waits statistically.

As for "reading" discards to determine an opponent's hand, there's no sure-fire way to do that outside of a rough estimate if the opponent's hand is closed. Kokushi musou is one of the only exceptions, as it's often decided to go for it at the beginning of the hand, and often, the player's initial-mid discards will all be suited tiles of 2-8. Depending on the lack (or relative lack) of a certain suit in an opponent's discards, you might be able to figure he's going for a single suit hand or a single suit+honors hand. If his hand is open, pay attention to the tiles he's calling and tiles he's discarding. Open dragon pon and chi of 234 sou, and lack of sou tiles in the discards? Reeks of honitsu. 123man chi, 123 sou chi? Most likely an (obvious) open sanshoku. Think about what yaku he might be going for, and try not to deal the tiles he needs to complete those yaku, if they're not already completed. You shouldn't worry about narrowing down the actual tiles your opponent is waiting for; if you can determine what tiles he's NOT waiting on, that's just as good.

Also, pay attention to the fucking Dora. I cannot say this enough. People will go out of their way to wait on or near the Dora tile because even if it's inefficient, it gives their hand more value. The Dora is really fucking dangerous at all times unless the opponent has already discarded it. Tiles around the Dora are also dangerous.

If you have any other questions, feel free to ask! I'm by no means the best player, but I try.