/jp/ - Otaku Culture

I believe Umineko is a good case study for the 'Black Swan' idea developed by Nassim Taleb in its book of the same name. You know how everyone and their mothers think retroactively that they solved Umineko's mystery as soon as chapter one (or that it was solvable at all)? After learning all the details, everything seems obvious in retrospect, and we override our memories to convince ourselves that we deduced more than we actually did at the time. It's just human nature. Even after chapter 8, it's possible for several parallel interpretations to coexist with the ''canon explanation'' in a way that is impossible to disprove. If that's true at the end of the series, it was even more applicable at the early chapters. It was impossible to pinpoint a single, definitive, absolute solution simply because multiple solutions were (and ARE) valid. The story of Umineko deals with ideas of parallel narratives and interpretations, and people still don't get this. The argument that ''some dude on 2chan solved everything by chapter 2'' is the perfect example of 'silent evidence'. When you have millions of people trying to solve a mystery, its probable that at least some will get it right, even by sheer luck, even if there is not enough evidence for a conclusive answer.