/ic/ - Artwork/Critique

I've been polishing this turd (top left) for too long, and I just need to start over. It's part of a small series or other characters and (bottom left) is the general aesthetic it will end up as.

Right now, I'm trying to get down values and lighting down. I used a ref for the general shape of head, but the ref has poor all-over lighting.

I've tried to make up more dramatic lighting from my head. Does it look okay? Crits in general are appreciated!