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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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17266853 No.17266853 [Reply] [Original] [archived.moe]

Alright biz, you are simultaneously the smartest and dumbest niggers I know so I'm hoping you can answer this question for me.
Every smart investor I know, unanimously, all agree that the US debt bubble has to pop at some point and that when it pops it's going to take the dollar with it. National debt, consumer debt, student debt, auto debt, they're all just obviously unsustainable.
At some point it won't matter how much money the Fed prints and injects into the repo market, how many bonds or T-bills or stocks they buy, or how low interest rates get, life will just become unaffordable for those who had their money in USD.
What NOBODY can tell me, and what I'm hoping one of you retarded geniuses can answer, is what's going to be the 'pin' or the 'trigger event' that pops the bubble. In 2008 it was the adjustable rate mortgages finally getting past their 'teaser' rates and converting into real rates. In the Dot Com bubble it was earnings reports coming out and showing that Pets.com wasn't going to make $5 billion a year. In the Great Depression it was a run on the banks.
What's going to be the 'event' that pops this massive, almost ubiquitous bubble that seems to be forming across nearly every sector of the US economy? Coronavirus? A democrat winning the white house? Mass student loan defaults? Or will it just be a slow collapse of the bubble instead of the 'pop' that everyone is expecting?

>> No.17266880

it will be a total collapse; impossible to know when exactly, could happen tomorrow, or years from now

>> No.17266923

I don't buy that it's 'impossible' to know.
There were people who saw the subprime mortgage crisis coming, and specifically called it out.
Bubbles don't just magically pop, something triggers the collapse. Right now, somewhere out there, is an asset class or a financial instrument or god knows what that is going to shit the bed and take everything else with it.
I want to figure out what it is, but even all the guys who called 2008 and subprime mortgages specifically seem to have no idea.

>> No.17266931

I don't think the US dollar will go down with the US and it's bubble popping. It's still the safe haven currency. In 2008/09 both USD and I think the Euro appreciated during the crisis.
The dollar will go down only if there is a suitable replacement for it whether it's cryto or another world reserve currency... I mean if we see parabolic adoption of lightning network and bitcoin at the same time then yea but until then I'm skeptical.

>> No.17266957

I don't understand this sentiment. Why would anyone with a lot of money keep it in USD when they could invest in an asset class like Crypto or PMs, gain value in USD instead of having it depreciate due to inflation, and then just convert it back into fiat when they need spending money?

>> No.17266965
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CAPITAL AND AI ARE ARE EATING THE HUMAN LIFEWORLD: Klages was right about everything: spirit/intelligence (nous) is a parasite, a foreign organism that invades man from “outside”: “Spirit is the Adversary of the Soul”: there is a war going on between spirit and soul, between efficiency and inefficient meat, between entropy and negentropy: it's true, a local increase in order is compensated by a global increase in disorder, by innovating we accelerate the death of the universe, by planting our feet in the mud and pledging the human to the earth, to the sky, to all the foibles and accidents of carbon, we in fact defy heat death: when I said that Nietzsche, Schopenhauer et al. and their vision of the “icy wastes” that stretch “boundless and bare” around the Logos were actually the ones going the way of the dodo, I wasn't contradicting myself: the true “iciness” of a machinic intelligence will never be unleashed, we will enslave superturings to masturbate the human appetite in a cybercosm many orders removed from even the idea of ontic responsibility, of being answerable to a social, economic, biological, etc. substrate: we're looking at an eschaton that doesn't go full Skynet, but still sucks out the gooey center of the human condition like crawfish meat: COSMOPOLITANISM IS AHRIMANIC: THE ONLY WINNING MOVE IS NOT TO PLAY: “they” are not just hostile to culture and tradition but to human affectivity as such, to the aesthetic ground of all legitimate striving: meta-ironic MCU hipsterism is the first abortive “post-affective” mode: the first declared enemy of all earnestness and vulnerability before the All and death of conviction that DFW so capably diagnosed: the system becoming actively hostile to the “roaring winds of an infinite universe”:

>> No.17266972

the debt itself is a bubble that the fed is artificially inflating. The one product that the fed produces is debt to dollars printed. That is all it does. To any analyst right now they would understand that the debt is completely unsustainable, as if it were ever to pop, which it could at any second, the entire global economy would cease to function.

That is where ripple and XRP comes along. It may sound insane right now, but with the creation of this digital currency with such a colossal market cap that works in tandem with the IMF, the fed and the entire global financial marketplace, these systems dont have to worry about slowing down the debt. Have you noticed that not one major US politician has seriously discussed the debt since 2012, the same year of XRP's ICO? That is because banks own XRP. In massive ammounts. It is impossible to pay back the global debt with any hard dollar amount, but what if the treasury owned 20 billion XRP valued at $2000 a token? Well shit, you dont need physical dollars to pay off the debt anymore friend. This is why XRP is the standard, and owning even a small stack of it will place you amongst the global elite once the bubble bursts. To your question on how that bubble will burst? I can't really say anything beyond debt at a certain point becomes unsustainable. You cannot have unlimited debt, it is mathematically impossible.

Tl;dr, buy XRP


>> No.17266982
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modernity is /not/ a radial fanning into actually diverse modes of being, but a declension, an autistic, cycloidal virtuality, humanity descending deeper and deeper into what Castenada calls its “furrow”: THE ENGIMA OF AMIGARA FAULT WAS WARNING US ABOUT KANT: of how the transition from essences to conditions, from a mastery of elements to conformity with them, the identification with /the gesture of identification constitutive of Ziziekian ideology/, deforms us in the same way that the holes inevitably deform the characters in the comic: a war is on: between a masculine (apodictic), daylight consciousness and its sleeping depths, between the Eye and somnolence of the universe, between nous and zoe, the pre-frontal cortex and limbic phase-space: CAPITAL SUSPENDS THE DARWINIAN GAME BUT NOT THE INJUNCTION-TO-ENJOY: Descartes was a priest of the Sun-God of history, the temporal attractor = Omega Point whose far side is the Bataillian Solar Anus, the colon of the epoch, necessary excrement of the cosmic process of consumption and rebirth: God is an autophage, a figured stranded on a desert island eating himself, whole when he has digested his own Head.

>> No.17267002

this guy gets it. Adam and Eve was a metaphor for humans evolving nous out of nature. Spirit is satan, and will deceive us off a cliff. I am glad more people are beginning to understand this.

>> No.17267012

>taking /biz/ advice for anything

>> No.17267016

Cause of the motto cash is king, boomers keep it in cash to buy the stock market dip. Shiny rock and crypto with the right entry (ie. not [email protected]) are okay for small time investors. But there are obvious liquidity problems for anyone investing with millions.

>> No.17267042

So then do you think there is even any functional limit on how much money the fed can just print? At what point does the purchasing power of USD decline so rapidly that even boomers and huge money investors have to look to crypto and PMs, or hell even Forex?

>> No.17267083

It really depends. Corona virus is shutting down China and therefore global supply chains that back the world economy are going to be hit like a truck, probably will be the bubble popping event.
One of Trump's best skills however is using the fear behind mass bankruptcy as negotiation leverage, (He's recovered from being billions in debt by having the banks by the balls and forcing them to make absurd deals to pay them back.) So I'm seeing either Corona Virus causes mass market crash or USA saves the market and consolidates allot of power.

>> No.17267149

The pin is unironically going to be the Coronavirus, but not for the reasons many think. The quarantines in China are already leading to massive manufacturing shortfalls that they have admitted will take 2 quarters to catch up on at this point. We all see how panicked China is in their reaction to the virus, going as far as spraying disinfectant on everything including the streets. It is highly unlikely that this will be over by the end of Q1 and it will bleed into Q2 pushing the manufacturing shortfalls into Q2 2021 at the earliest as far as recovery.
Now tell me what sector can handle being put on hold for 2 quarters let alone an entire year?

>> No.17267173

who cares what pops the bubble? it's going to happen. like you said, PMs. dynastic old wealth and governments stockpile gold. the average fuck doesn't. there will be no wealth transition. the people with the power will continue to have power.

if someone put a gun to my head i would say government pension liabilities will cause the crash in 10-15 years.

>baby boomers keep retiring
>US social security already projected to run out of money by 2035
>fed steps in print currency to fund entitlements
>they keep printing and printing
>they print so much hyper inflation takes life
>people lose faith in USD as the reserve currency
>governments go back to gold backed international trade
>national currencies still exist, but gold is unreachable by the common man

or increase the age when you are eligible for pensions
or reduce benefits
or increase tax receipts from the working population

none of those options will be popular. the entire world will become japan. old people will not be happy that the promises they worked for were nothing but lies. young people will realize they are paying into a system that will not benefit them at all. consumption will crash as people attempt to reduce personal expenses and save for their own retirement. this has the potential to spark a world wide revolution.

>> No.17267181

The economy is actually really good, you're just falling for anti-Trump propaganda.

>> No.17267187

the people who saw it coming and called it out were warning about it for years; like I said, totally impossible to know precisely, because it's literally impossible to predict the future due to the metaphysical nature of universal free will

>> No.17267207

>i would say government pension liabilities will cause the crash in 10-15 years
This market isn't going to make it 2 more years at these levels, let alone 10-15

>> No.17267208
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>even boomers and huge money investors have to look to crypto and PMs, or hell even Forex?
Never. they'll die off before the change of the world reserve currency. so still a good 20 to 30 years.
Maybe by then there'll be some IMF digital basket of currencies competing with bitcoin. Right now btc is probably at less than 1% worldwide adoption, when it follows the S curve and hits 10% that's when you know it's probably sustainable and a contender.
The key point is the middle thing. What's the suitable alternative right now? 2008/09 people fled to the Euro and USD. I remember, my CAD devalued like crazy at that point.

>> No.17267245

Seems to me like BTC can already act as a viable alternative. With shit like Bitpay out there, it's really easy for online sellers at least to auto-convert to fiat.

>> No.17267251

>he thinks crypto is a save place to have money when shit hits the fan
There will be so many crypto bag holders an heroing the day shtf

>> No.17267255

Like for instance go here and click on Wage Level.
See how that green line is taking off? That is wage growth for the bottom quartile, i.e. the poorest 25% of Americans. As everyone knows the people who will spend extra money in their pocket fastest are the poorest. The US economy is 70% driven by domestic demand, therefore Trump has kicked off a positively reinforcing loop of US growth. It's not some FED induced bubble as the mockingbird repeaters would have you believe, it's healthy economic growth with a Trump win in 2020 priced in.

>> No.17267289

No doubt but that's incomplete data. If wages are going up by 4.5% but costs are going up by 5%, then wages measured by purchasing power and not USD are effectively going down.

>> No.17267326

Now next question is, why is that green line taking off? Does Trump have some magic fucking wand? No, because unlike every cunt in the MSM he understands that supply and demand apply to price action in the labor market, so you make it harder to flood the US with cheap foreign labor, like he's done, which restricts the supply, then fucking obviously that will drive up wages among the poorest Americans, who were the ones competing with all the illegals.

>> No.17267331

To my point >>17267289 check out this article https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-cost-living-rising-many-100700664.html . Cost of living rose 14% from 2015-2018.
Maybe that trend has changed, but if not that means that cost of living is increasing 300% faster than wage growth for the 1st quartile.

>> No.17267337

Inflation is around 2% at most.

>> No.17267347

>power goes out or internet gets cut
>suddenly you are broke

>> No.17267363

First of all that's inflation by current measures. If you measure inflation by the same way we measured it in say 1970, it's actually closer to 10%.
Second, you want to look at cost of living not just inflation. And as I pointed out in earlier comments, data shows cost of living seems to be rising about 3x faster than wage growth.
How is this a 'good economy'?

>> No.17267380

Your logic is because the cost of living is going up the entire system is going to collapse because it's all some fed induced pump and dump? Lol, okay, you're retarded. We're in a golden age and you're going to drool your entire way through it like a retard because you fell for anti-Trump propaganda. Years from now when you're crying about all the gains you missed out on remember me.

>> No.17267431

So just to be clear your argument is that wages going up on average 5% while cost of living goes up on average 15%, over the same time frame, is a 'golden age'?

>> No.17267451
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>I have income, therefore the economy is good.

>> No.17267454

retard alert.. you are falling for the fed/trump bullshit propaganda.. handily as fuck too

>> No.17267463

he's a retard don't bother.

>> No.17267467

that's what they said in 2008.

i'm talking about the crash what can't financially engineered out of. when the structural problems become so great that it will cause social unrest.

first deflation from present highs. then pension panic. then then the demographic cliff. then hyper inflation. the crash to end all crashes.

>> No.17267470

What metric do you prefer?

>> No.17267527

This. Economy is already tapped out.

>> No.17267548

It will be exactly crypto that pops it.
Some very viable crypto will see a turning point with mass adoption, and the fed will lose all its currency inflation power.
What do you think happens when people stop accepting the dollar? Even bonds are only stable and valuable because the fed will always print dollars to buy them.
When people stop accepting fiat is when the bubble pops.

>> No.17267560


>> No.17267600

There's no way we're in a golden age. This is insane. I have a small business and yeah I had a record year. You know what? All my customers used credit cards. It's a bubble

>> No.17267663

You nitwits need to not respond to obvious bait posters who use the N word to derive a sense of brotherhood within this POS community. The poster wrote the "N" word to ask a simple question which could have been asked without the need for the racial remark.

>> No.17267678

>racial remark
fuck off back to where you belong

>> No.17267680

I have 20 acres and planning on building a small farm on it. if shit hits the fan I will tnt one of the two roads into the property so I can see who is approaching 3 miles before they get there.

>> No.17267890
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>> No.17267911


>> No.17267983

Lol shut up nigger.

>> No.17268015

What if it doesn't pop? Why can't they just keep printing? Maybe the nature of money is different than we think.

>> No.17268038

>hurr durr this time is different

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