Are you a retard?

[Anonymous No.9978717]

How do we stop /pol retards from flooding biz?
Easy, post your answer to pic related.

If you get it wrong you're most likely a pol retard and should be banned from Bizrael in order to increase the board average iq again.

[Anonymous No.9978747]

>>9978717
Also, post your answer and say if you browse /pol so we can identify you.

[Anonymous No.9978766]

It's 50/50! I don't browse pol!

[Anonymous No.9978777]

>>9978717
literally don't care but it's 50% and no i don't
also sage

[Anonymous No.9978784]

>>9978766
Aight son, you're an outlier.

[Anonymous No.9978789]

2/3, pol is cancer.

[Anonymous No.9978794]

>>9978777
truth trips get and ID get confirm

[Anonymous No.9978802]

>>9978717

Create a /pol/ coin then pump and dump on them.

[Anonymous No.9978804]

>this is the left memeing

[Anonymous No.9978814]

>>9978717
66% or 33%÷50%

[Anonymous No.9978826]

>>9978777
Do you browse pol or not?

[Anonymous No.9978830]

Chance is 2/3rd. /pol/ is cool.

[Anonymous No.9978837]

>>9978717
2/3.

It's counterintuitive, I wouldn't fault anyone for getting it wrong.

[Anonymous No.9978850]

>>9978837
Why counterintuitive?
There are 3 boxes and 50% of balls are gold.

[Anonymous No.9978874]

>>9978837
Oops. Forget I asked. I can see what you meant.

[Anonymous No.9978885]

>>9978837
It's not counterintuitive. You can figure out the right answer by just not being a retard.

[Anonymous No.9978895]

the laws of this universe state that you will always pick a gold as your first, there is no probability at play here
third boxes irrelevant of course
this leaves two boxes, with the second option of gold and silver respectively. so 50% of picking the box with a second gold, and 50% of picking the box with the second silver

[Anonymous No.9978899]

>>9978885
But I get why he said that.
People discard the third box. That way it would be counterintuitive.

[Anonymous No.9978925]

>>9978899
It's not counterintuitive, you discard the third box because there are no gold balls in there. It's basic logic.

[Anonymous No.9978939]

>>9978717
It’s 2/3 and this proves nothing bc I browse pol and only come here to laugh at people losing money hand over fist while the stock market has gone of like 30% the past year.

[Anonymous No.9978943]

>Bertrand's box paradox
It's 2/3 since "you can't see into any of the boxes" which means there are 2 gold balls left since you know it's not a silver box, and 1 silver left or 3 options. Since this is 'box agnostic' it doesn't matter whether you have a gold ball from the first or second box - there's still 3 balls left, two which are gold: therefore two out of three.

/pol/ is post-ironic trash. It's basically outrage porn for the """right"""

[Anonymous No.9978954]

Fuck u cuckboi

[Anonymous No.9978966]

>>9978943
your hand stays in the one box my dude
you can't change boxes
once your hand goes into one of two boxes there is only one single result per box that could happen
100% gold and 0% gold
50% of gold

[Anonymous No.9978982]

>>9978943
>same box
>2 gold balls left
there's 1 ball left in that box
if you grabbed a gold ball, the ball that has a gold and a silver ball does not have a gold ball left in it. It's not one box of 6 balls with 3 openings that determine which balls can be grabbed.

[Anonymous No.9979006]

this is like a fakeout for the monty hall problem. It looks like the same situation, but it isn't. Either that or OP presented it incorrectly.

initially you have 1/3rd chance of grabbing the box of 2 gold balls, but once you grab a gold ball its 50/50

[Anonymous No.9979014]

>>9978966
>your hand stays in the one box my dude
You don't know which box! BOX AGNOSTIC
>100% gold and 0% gold
>50% of gold
Holy shit you are dumb.
It's a probability, right?

>>9978982
there's 2 gold balls left.
BOX AGNOSTIC.
If you have a gold ball you are either going to grab a gold ball or a silver one... there's two gold balls left. You don't know if you're in the box with the silver ball or one ball

[Anonymous No.9979027]

>>9978943
thanks, i was wondering how people could say 2/3, thought they're completely retarded, but you showed a thought process that's not even that dumb. still pretty dumb tho

[Anonymous No.9979040]

>>9979014
you know it's one of two boxes
if it's the first one you have a 100% chance of getting the second gold
if the other box, 0% chance
50% chance of picking a second gold

[Anonymous No.9979046]

>>9979014
yikes, i regret saying you're not retarded he even explained it to you and you still didn't get it

[Anonymous No.9979083]

>>9979040
>You know it's one of two boxes
Yes... of which there are three balls left since you took out the gold one. You don't know WHICH box you took it out of, you don't know the contents.
You've already taken out a gold one.

>>9979046
>>9979027
Not as dumb as flogging a dead horse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox
What part of there being three balls left don't you understand and they are evenly weighted in terms of probility.

Put it this way, if there were two boxes, in one box was a Red ball, in the other was a green and a yellow. And you don't know which box your hand is in - what is the probability of getting a red ball?

You idiot will say "50% Because there's a 100% chance of it being a red ball in box one" but there's two boxes and three balls... the BOXES DON'T MATTER.

[Anonymous No.9979086]

Seeing biz get this wrong is hysterical.

50%. Given: You took a gold ball. There were only 2 ways to reach this scenario.
A) you got box 1 with another gold ball in it.
B) you got box 2 with the silver ball leftover.
The fact is, one of those is what really happened. One out of two. 1/2. 50%.

No I don't browse pol.

[Anonymous No.9979110]

>>9979083
>appeal to authority
old fucks also thought the sun revolved around the earth but that turned out to be wrong

it's 50%
there are two time lines you can go down
only 1 gives a gold ball
end of story

[Anonymous No.9979138]

Is this a meme that I somehow missed? All those brainlets insisting on the answer being 50% must be in on the joke, right?

[Anonymous No.9979160]

>>9979138
the meme is how you interpret the question
stem autists will always pick 2/3 because "huur 3 balls left and two are gold"
right hemisphere dominant philosophy gods will choose 1/2 because they see reality for what it is

[Anonymous No.9979174]

>>9979110
>it's 50%
>there are two time lines you can go down
>only 1 gives a gold ball
>end of story
Wrong framing. Why are you still thinking in the boxes?
If there is a red, green, and a blue ball - what is the possibility of me picking any one of them? 1/3 each.
What if I put the red one in a box, and the green and blue in another box. I don't tell you which box you're reaching in - what is the possibility of getting the red ball? 1/3.
Of course you've stopped reading tipoff at this point
Now, what if instead of blue, one of those balls was red. So there's two red balls in two different boxes, and a green ball.
2/3 possibility of a red ball.
The boxes don't matter if you can't see them.

[Anonymous No.9979181]

Seven

[Anonymous No.9979190]

>>9979174
the boxes do matter because I already know the possible outcomes of each box
there are two boxes, one has a gold remaining and one has a silver remaining, two remaining options... 50%

[Anonymous No.9979200]

>>9979006
Almost had it!
It's 33% (or 1/3) ÷ 50% (or 1/2)

[Anonymous No.9979216]

>>9979160
>reality for what it is
Go ahead and do the test a thousand times. Realize you're an idiot.

[Anonymous No.9979222]

>>9978717
The answer is really simple. You might think there are initially 3 possible scenarios but there are 6:

* You pick the box with 2 gold balls and take the first.
* You pick the box with 2 gold balls and take the second.
* You pick the box with 2 silver balls and take the first.
* You pick the box with 2 silver balls and take the second.
* You pick the mixed box and take the gold one.
* You pick the mixed box and take the silver one.

We know that we didn't pick the one with 2 silver balls, because we take a gold one.
And we know we didn't pick the mixed one and take the silver ball.

So there are only 3 possible scenarios:

* You pick the box with 2 balls and take the gold one.
* You pick the box with 2 gold balls and take the first.
* You pick the box with 2 gold balls and take the second.

So the answer it's 2/3, not 1/2 because it's less likely that you pick the mixed box and take the gold one, than that you pick the gold box and take a ball.

[Anonymous No.9979240]

>>9979160
left hemi brainlet confirmed lmao

[Anonymous No.9979241]

>>9979222
what about the box with 2 silver balls?

[Anonymous No.9979283]

all 2/3 autists just failed to read it right

[Anonymous No.9979296]

>>9979222
wrong. you will always pick a gold 100% of the time first go, laws of this universe say so.
this leaves you with either picking another gold or the silver. TWO OPTIONS
ONLY TWO
DEUCE

[Anonymous No.9979305]

>>9979222
I'd say trips of truth but it doesn't matter if you take the first or the second gold ball. once you pick a gold ball your possibilities collapse to being one remaining gold ball or one remaining silver ball. you don't have a higher chance of having the double gold ball box just because you picked a gold ball out.

[Anonymous No.9979337]

>>9979305
If you pick a gold ball is more likely that it came from the box with 2 gold ball than from the box with only 1.

[Anonymous No.9979340]

>>9979222
>because it's less likely that you pick the mixed box and take the gold one, than that you pick the gold box and take a ball.

We already 100% have the gold ball. We're asked to calculate the probabilities after we already took out a gold ball not what they would be from the beginning.

[Anonymous No.9979363]

>>9979296
I see that you don't give up on boxes.
So here's the question
You drew a gold ball, you got it!
Now you know there are 3 boxes total and the gold balls are for sure in 2 of them.
1 box has 100% probability that your next ball will be gold
One 50% probability
One 0%
You know that the box that you chose from is not the one that has 0% probability cause there are 2 silvers there.

So what's more probable:
that you chose from the box with 2 golds or mixed?
Or in other words:
If you had only 2 boxes to chose from and one contained only 2 gold and one was mixed, what would be your probability of second gold?
Would it be higher or lower than pulling silver?
If you discard the third box, you are left with 2, but then the probability of drawing gold goes up.
The question is deceiving but simple if you think about it like that.

[Anonymous No.9979368]

>>9979337
This is where the crux of the discussion is. Once you pick a ball, you remove the previous probabilities. you have already picked a gold ball. assuming it **was** more likely from one box or the other is flawed.

[Anonymous No.9979377]

>>9979363
having two boxes limits you to TWO POSSIBILITIES
ONLY TWO POSSIBILITIES
YOU CAN'T SWAP BOXES ONCE YOU'VE DRAWN THE FIRST BALL

seriously dude Its pretty fucking simple

[Anonymous No.9979378]

>>9979368
It is not.
Because once you discarded the box with 0% probability you are left with 2 boxes in which drawing gold is more probable than drawing silver.

[Anonymous No.9979385]

>>9979138
The absolute retardation of you

[Anonymous No.9979387]

>>9979377
Actually only 1 possibility of drawing a gold from 2 boxes containing 2 gold balls(since you already got 1) and 1 silver.

[Anonymous No.9979388]

>>9979378
by some divine intervention you will always draw a gold as your first pick
that's not up to chance
what's up to chance is the box you picked in the first place, leaving 100% and 0% chance respectively. 50%

[Anonymous No.9979410]

you are picking from one box
that box contains either
>1 gold
or
>1 silver

50/50

the other boxes don't calculate in because you are not given the choice to pick another box.

[Anonymous No.9979418]

>>9979388
Again.
When you get your gold and discard your shit box containing 2 silver balls, you are left with 2 boxes containing more gold than silver.
So your probability of drawing hold is then more than 50%

[Anonymous No.9979425]

>first draw is gold
>2nd draw is from same box
learn to read people

[Anonymous No.9979433]

>>9979418
nope
the question is asked after you draw your first gold
so there is only the possibility of drawing a single gold and single silver
50%

[Anonymous No.9979438]

>>9979368
Actually I take it all back. I tried to boil the argument down with scale and figured that I was wrong
Consider a box with 100 gold balls and 1 gold 99 silver balls. If you draw a gold ball, what are your odds of getting a gold ball next?
The odds of getting the gold ball from one were much lower than the other. If you have a gold ball, your odds of being in the gold only box are much higher. you still could be in the silver box, but the odds are very low. With my old argument, it would still be 50/50. but you were never equally likely to have a gold ball in the silver box.
I don't understand the math entirely, but I understand the logic.

[Anonymous No.9979439]

Wow some of you can't even do basic math

[Anonymous No.9979441]

>>9978717
if one time only, 50%
if repeated like 1000 times, 1/3 or 2/3 probability, I don't fucking know, would have to think for a while, I'm slow but deep like my thot lmao

[Anonymous No.9979444]

>>9979418
>same box
>same
S A M E

ONLY ONE BOX YOU CAN DRAW FROM THE S A M E BOX YOU PICKED FIRST

[Anonymous No.9979445]

Ok guys enough is enough, retards that chose 1/2 woo will never make it.
People that chose 2/3 will make it.

[Anonymous No.9979453]

>>9979445
>he thinks he can pick from the other box

[Anonymous No.9979457]

>>9979425
>"You draw a ball at random. It's a gold ball."
Is different than
>"You are guaranteed to draw the gold ball"

[Anonymous No.9979467]

>>9979453

[Anonymous No.9979469]

>>9979433
Not as far as probability is concerned.
If the question was:
You have 2 boxes, one with 2 gold balls and one mixed : 1 silver and 1 gold
Total of 4 balls, 3 of which gold.
Then, if you drew gold, what's more probable: to draw another gold or to draw silver?

[Anonymous No.9979473]

from the idiots that shilled you LINK

[Anonymous No.9979513]

>>9979457
The only reason I can see for you trying to make those two outcomes not the same is because you don't know if the silver ball in the mixed box is on the right or left side. WE see it on the right side. So to make the visual easy. You draw the left ball one your first draw.

THIS IS KNOWN

You draw the gold ball first. So you can KNOW that you draw the left ball first, Now you draw the second ball. THE RIGHT BALL.

You can only be drawing a ball from the middle or left box THIS IS KNOWN

The RIGHT BALL is 1) Gold 2) Silver

Hmmm guess it's 2/3 after all.

[Anonymous No.9979530]

>>9979513
Refer to
>>9979438
Please refute

[Anonymous No.9979536]

>>9979444
Ok. Again. What's more probable: that the next ball that you draw is silver or that it's gold?
You have 2 boxes(4 balls total) and drew a gold ball from one of them.
You know you have 2 gold balls and 1 silver left in these 2 boxes.
So (forget about numbers) what's more probable?
That you will draw gold or that you will draw silver, next?

[Anonymous No.9979576]

>>9978717

That's not an IQ question. You could've picked a question from an actual IQ test but instead you picked a trick/math question.

[Anonymous No.9979646]

>>9979530
not the question. change the question all you want, then you can get any answer you like.

[Anonymous No.9979668]

>>9979453
The fuck? That's the official answer, how can you be so retarded?????

[Anonymous No.9979670]

>>9979646

The premise is the same with different numbers. It assumes that by natural chance you pull a gold ball which means your odds of being in one box is not the same of being in the other. All I have done is made the point more obvious.

[Anonymous No.9979674]

>>9978717
50%
I browse: k, pol, biz, and fit, get toasty.

[Anonymous No.9979679]

>>9979576
It's a logic question, how can people be given the right answer and still say it's 50?
There are a bunch of retards in here.

[Anonymous No.9979680]

>>9979530
Oh wait dear fucking lord you are still this dumb. You mean because of CHANCE and you are still adding the chance of the first draw.

The first draw is gold. Just is. No probability to do here. Drop all balls not involved in the first draw. Move on from the first draw. Move on from the silvers in the silver box. Move on from the other box that is no longer in existence.

[Anonymous No.9979683]

>>9978850
Fix your brain dude

[Anonymous No.9979687]

>>9979674
Retard confirmed.

[Anonymous No.9979688]

>>9979683
Why, exactly?

[Anonymous No.9979705]

>>9979679
I think a lot of it is trolling, so there's that.

[Anonymous No.9979709]

>>9979688
How can you be so stupid?

[Anonymous No.9979719]

>>9979709
Me?
I'm not saying that I'm the smartest person in the universe but what stupid thing did I just say?

[Anonymous No.9979724]

>>9978717
Are you guys trolling our genuinely low iq. The question clearly states that in the scenario the first ball drawn is golden, or asks the probability of the second draw alone.

Meaning the double silver box doesn't even come into play. To have drawn gold first, you are in either the middle or left box, and the second draw odd from the same box.

[Anonymous No.9979732]

>>9979705
You're underestimating the stupidity of people. And their stubbornness too.

[Anonymous No.9979751]

>>9979732
People sometimes understand it when you expand the problem to larger sizes. For example a box with 100 gold balls and 99 silver and 1 gold. It should be pretty obvious that when you have a gold you're much more likely to have taken it from the 100 gold than the silver thus the next is more likely to be another gold than a silver.

[Anonymous No.9979766]

>>9978717
The answer is: 1/6
also /pol/ is aids. Anybody that goes there is retarded

[Anonymous No.9979767]

>>9979751
The most effective way I've explained it is that it's the same if you put the 4 balls in the same box.
Them being in different boxes is just an illusion.

[Anonymous No.9979774]

>>9979732
Oh that.
I probably do. But I worked as a tutor for statistics at my uni to pay the bills, so I guess I'm used to people not understanding.
People get confused because the logic used to do math does differ from the logic (or rather, the intuition) that we use every day.
Sometimes it needs a little shift I guess.
I tried to understand where that shift was needed and that way I could teach.
I explained the percentages on an example of a cake divided into 100 parts to a 20+ year olds...it works although I got lost a few times.

[Anonymous No.9979792]

>>9979767
It's not when it clearly states that you draw from the same box for the second draw. They after either separate, or they not.

[Anonymous No.9979808]

>>9979668
not my fault the official answer is wrong
you have one box that you are taking 2 balls from. what's in the other 2 boxes doesn't matter and doesn't factor in.
you are picking 1 ball from a box with 1 ball in it. that ball is either silver or gold. done.

the flaw in the logic comes in with statements like this:
>You know you have 2 gold balls and 1 silver left in these 2 boxes.

that's wrong. the box cannot contain 2 remaining gold balls, and you can't choose another box.

a) you picked from the 2 gold box and now there is 1 gold left to pick
or b) you picked from the gold/silver box and there is 1 silver left to pick

[Anonymous No.9979814]

>>9979774
Yeah, you need a shift in your vision to understand the problem.
But that's why most of the people that got the problem wrong will never make it. They don't have the ability nor the intention to change their perspective.

[Anonymous No.9979816]

>>9979751
Nice method, this actually makes sense.

[Anonymous No.9979821]

>>9979792
Refer to this
>>9979418
>>9979469
>>9979536

[Anonymous No.9979834]

>>9979751
Good thinking there.
It's still not working on some though.
That's why I think some of it is trolling.

[Anonymous No.9979856]

>>9979792
You have probably never taken an statistics course.

[Anonymous No.9979860]

>>9979814
I agree.
I once got myself into a stupid discussion about " smaller and bigger half"
After 45 minutes(I'm patient) I realized that I will never convince the person that I was discussing this with, that halves are always equall.
They kept ripping pages in unequal halls and presenting it to me as a proof that halves can be different.
Dude was not even that stupid, just refused to change his position no matter what.

[Anonymous No.9979865]

>>9979808
>not my fault the official answer is wrong
Wtfffffff???? How can you be so stubborn and fucking stupid???

[Anonymous No.9979867]

>>9979679
yes exactly it's a logic question
so if your first draw is gold, thay only leaves you with the possibility of a gold or silver
50%

[Anonymous No.9979868]

this is literally just a different form of the monty hall problem, the famous problem known for being counter intuitive and stumping lay people and mathematicians alike.

[Anonymous No.9979876]

>>9979860
They were ripping the pages in half but 2 different halves of 2 different pages, were of course non equal *

[Anonymous No.9979889]

to the person talking about 100 balls, move the goal posts harder

there are two boxes to choose from
you will always remove the gold from the equation on the first pick
the question is asked now when there is only one possible result per box... 100% gold in box 1 and 0% gold in box 2, 50%

[Anonymous No.9979892]

>>9979867
It's 2/3, logic dictates that you can't know which box you chose, so purely on logic, the answer is that you must take into account both boxes as if they were one. So answer is 2/3.

[Anonymous No.9979893]

how do retards not get this?

[Anonymous No.9979897]

>>9979865
>>unequal halves problem
I really find it hard to believe that people are that resistant to knowledge. I think it has something to do with stupidity, but also with inability to admit that one is wrong.

[Anonymous No.9979912]

1/3 ez.

[Anonymous No.9979919]

>>9979892
logic dictates that they are two separate box and the end result is entirely dependant on WHICH BOX YOU PICKED
2 boxes
50%

[Anonymous No.9979923]

>>9979867
>>only leaves you with the possibility of a gold or silver
That's good, but you have more gold than silver, right?

[Anonymous No.9979924]

>>9979679

It's a trick question bro. People who get it right the first time propably heard about the other similar problem in that TV show whatever it's name was. Again if you actually wanted proper logic/IQ question there are plenty available in IQ tests. There's a reason these types of things aren't in proper IQ tests.

[Anonymous No.9979931]

>>9979893
scenario 1 and 2 play out as the one, not two indivual scenarios

[Anonymous No.9979934]

>>9979174

You are given the question AFTER a gold ball has been pulled from one of the boxes.

There is one ball left in the box.

It's either gold, or it's silver.

50% chance of it being either of those.

It would have been a 2/3 chance of selecting a gold ball if we only had two boxes to start with and you were asked, "What are the chance of first picking up a gold ball?"

The gold ball has already been selected. This means you either have the box with another gold ball, or the box with another silver ball.

You have a 50% of it being either of those at this point in time.

[Anonymous No.9979937]

>>9979893
wrong. it's 1/6 you pol-tard

[Anonymous No.9979943]

>>9979923
you have one gold and one silver because the two golds are removed from the equation before the question is asked

[Anonymous No.9979948]

>>9979919
The question is "what's the probability of taking out another gold ball?".
Probability is not dependent, you have to think of the two boxes as a whole.

[Anonymous No.9979951]

>>9979919
If we were talking about boxes, true. 50%, but we are not talking about boxes but about a probability of drawing
1)ball
2) gold ball specifically
And the question really is, what's more probable:
drawing gold or silver on the next draw.
And you have more gold balls(2) left, than silver(1), since you discard the box with silver only, I assume.

[Anonymous No.9979962]

>>9979924
It's not a trick question.
Trick question would be something like the who's driving the bus or how many survivors in the plane crash questions.

[Anonymous No.9979966]

>>9979893
>from the same box
you're retarded. you probably browse pol

[Anonymous No.9979978]

>>9979222
Lmao. To think you typed all that out (with Reddit spacing as well) just to be that wrong.

[Anonymous No.9979982]

>>9979937
It's 2/3 you polturd.

[Anonymous No.9979985]

>>9979919
There are 3 stores in your city. one sells tires, another sells twice as many tires and gets twice as many customers, and a third store sells dildos. Now you see someone with new tires on their car, which store did they most likely buy they're tires from, the bigger store, or the smaller mom and pop tire shop with half as many customers? it's twice as likely those tires came from the bigger shop. Just like it's twice as likely your gold ball came from the box with 2 gold balls. 66% big shop, 33% half size shop.

[Anonymous No.9979990]

>>9978717 >>9978747 >>9978766 >>9978777 >>9978784 >>9978789 >>9978794 >>9978802 >>9978804 >>9978814 >>9978826 >>9978830 >>9978837 >>9978850 >>9978874 >>9978885 >>9978895 >>9978899 >>9978925 >>9978939 >>9978943 >>9978954 >>9978966 >>9978982 >>9979006 >>9979014 >>9979027 >>9979040 >>9979046 >>9979083 >>9979086 >>9979110 >>9979138 >>9979160 >>9979174 >>9979181 >>9979190 >>9979200 >>9979216 >>9979222 >>9979240 >>9979283 >>9979296 >>9979305 >>9979337 >>9979340 >>9979363 >>9979368 >>9979377 >>9979378 >>9979385 >>9979387 >>9979388 >>9979410 >>9979418 >>9979425 >>9979433 >>9979438 >>9979439 >>9979441 >>9979444 >>9979445 >>9979453 >>9979457 >>9979467 >>9979469 >>9979473 >>9979513 >>9979530 >>9979536 >>9979576 >>9979646 >>9979668 >>9979670 >>9979674 >>9979679 >>9979680 >>9979683 >>9979687 >>9979688 >>9979705 >>9979709 >>9979719 >>9979724 >>9979732 >>9979751 >>9979766 >>9979767 >>9979774 >>9979792 >>9979808 >>9979814 >>9979816 >>9979821 >>9979834 >>9979856 >>9979860 >>9979865 >>9979867 >>9979868 >>9979876 >>9979889 >>9979892 >>9979893 >>9979897 >>9979912 >>9979919 >>9979923 >>9979924 >>9979931 >>9979934 >>9979937 >>9979943 >>9979948 >>9979951 >>9979962 >>9979966 >>9979978 >>9979982 >>9979985

[Anonymous No.9980001]

>>9979982
it's spelled `tard`
I know you obviously go to /pol/ because of how idiotic you are. Neck yourself ASAP

[Anonymous No.9980009]

>>9979931
wrong. they aren't the same ball, so you have a chance to pick either one. that means you have 1/6 chance to pick each ball, leaving 2/3 chance that you the next ball you pick is gold if you picked a gold one first.


>>9979937
no its not you stupid fucking retard.

>>9979966
did you even read the question? I mean how fucking dumb are you?

[Anonymous No.9980011]

checking
>>9980000
>>9979999

[Anonymous No.9980013]

>>9979948
the boxes are separate
you can't change this fact
you have a 50% chance of picking the box with a second gold or 50% chance of picking a box with the second silver

END OF DISCUSSION

[Anonymous No.9980014]

>>9979937
anybody that thinks otherwise needs to stop browsing /pol/ and kill themselves

[Anonymous No.9980017]

>>9979924
Not really a trick question desu
It's a beginning probability question really.
What we are seeing though is pure IQ almost.
Because the ability to adapt is quintessential in describing the IQ or intelligence, really.
And here, that ability is lacking.
People rather argue a moot point and even argue the official math, than admit that they erred and try and understand where. That actually more revealing than the question itself.
If presented with the evidence, one still refuses to learn, one is essentially not that intelligent.

[Anonymous No.9980021]

>>9979990

>trough

Did I pass?

[Anonymous No.9980022]

>>9980009
sotp going to /pol/ and then kill yourself. It's 1/6

[Anonymous No.9980026]

>>9980022
prove it faggot.

[Anonymous No.9980032]

>>9980013
>>END OF UNDERSTANDING

[Anonymous No.9980035]

>>9980022
dubs confirm, kill yourself >>9980009 >>9980026

[Anonymous No.9980043]

here I'll just end the thread https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7u6kFlWZOWg
you can just reapply this to the gold ball problem.

[Anonymous No.9980060]

stem retards can only see what is in front of them

>huur you pick a gold ball and there are still two left and one silver so 2/3 duuuh I'm so smart I go to a shitty state College and will struggle to find work against fly in pajeets

[Anonymous No.9980062]

>>9979990
>>coping this hard

[Anonymous No.9980065]

>>9980035
delet

[Anonymous No.9980073]

>>9980013
It truly is this simple. Anyone not gettng that it's 50/50 is either mentally handicapped or trolling / larping as a retard.

[Anonymous No.9980074]

>>9980017

>It's a beginning probability question really. What we are seeing though is pure IQ almost.

Crystallized Intelligence vs fluid intelligence.

>People rather argue a moot point and even argue the official math, than admit that they erred and try and understand where. That actually more revealing than the question itself.
If presented with the evidence, one still refuses to learn, one is essentially not that intelligent.

Ye, that's true.

[Anonymous No.9980091]

>>9978717
The probability you pick 2 gold balls is 2/3 but the probability you pick 1 gold ball and the remaining ball is gold is 1/2. It doesnt matter which gold ball you pick because they are indistinct.

[Anonymous No.9980093]

>>9980009
kys retard. treat the box as a whole. simple answer is 1/3. you're all retarded btw.

[Anonymous No.9980101]

This one a fun one lads.

I don't really care what you think is the answer, but try to be kind to each other in the streets.

[Anonymous No.9980108]

>>9980091

If you want the real and unironic answer this is it.

[Anonymous No.9980112]

>>9980093
>treat the box as a whole
dick head the end result depends on which box you pick in the fucking first place
box wall gender fluid faggot

[Anonymous No.9980123]

>>9980074
>>but what is IQ?
>>it's what the IQ tests measure
I get it, I get it.
It's not an IQ question, but what we are observing is intelligence in situ.
Not an IQ, but the whole unexplainable phenomenon of the intelligence.
How quick anons do learn and how quick are they willing to learn.

[Anonymous No.9980125]

>>9980093
1st of all faggot, you don't even understand the question.
I like how the only visual proof in this entire thread proves 2/3.
none of you dipshits can make anything that proves anything else, because its not possible.

[Anonymous No.9980137]

>>9980112
you don't know which box you pick, you only know you chose a gold ball. well which gold ball did you choose? there are 3. 2 of them are in the same box. did you choose one of those 2, or the loner gold ball in the other box? you're less likely to have the loner ball

[Anonymous No.9980138]

>>9980108

[Anonymous No.9980140]

>>9980125
the only visual answer itt runs the exact same scenario twice to skew the odds
there are two options and two options only. you pick the box with two gold, or the box with one gold and one silver. 50% chance of success.

Deal with it.

[Anonymous No.9980169]

>>9980137
you aren't reaching into a single box with 4 balls
you are reaching into a single box out of two possible boxes
yes of course you don't know what's in the box... but it's a 50/50 chance of picking either or you dumb fucking retard

[Anonymous No.9980172]

>>9980112
>the end result depends on which box you pick in the fucking first place
do you even math pleb? there's only one box that has 2 gold balls out of three. The problem states what the probability is if you pick a box that have both gold ball in it. kys retard. go back to /pol/tard.

[Anonymous No.9980174]

>>9980112
Dude stop being triggered with people who just understand this.
No need to cope by projecting some mental image that you convinced yourself, represents a group of people that understand math.
I have nothing to do with STEM programs, nor am I an autist, also own my own business and work hard 18h a day in a Southern state.
Very much conservative.
So your stereotype doesn't work.
Smart doesn't equal weak or onions or city boy.
Stupid and stubborn doesn't equal strong or redneck.
And you should work on your math skills because they are lacking.

[Anonymous No.9980178]

>>9980001
>Not knowing what a turd is
Do you even English?

[Anonymous No.9980183]

>>9980140
you could pick either ball, it is not the exact same.
there are 2 different balls in there, you could pick #1 or #2, and the next ball will be gold.
that means there is 2 chances for that box that the next ball will be gold, then 1 chance that you will get a silver after picking a gold.
2/3

[Anonymous No.9980187]

>>9980125
you don't have a proof faggot

[Anonymous No.9980190]

>>9980032
Kekosaurus maximus

[Anonymous No.9980192]

>>9980137

[Anonymous No.9980197]

>>9979856
I took three statistics courses and got A+'s in all three, I also got straight A's in English, can you say the same?

[Anonymous No.9980198]

>>9980074
I already posted the official answer: 2/3
Yet retards double down on their stupidity.

[Anonymous No.9980203]

>>9980172
the question states what's the probability of picking another gold ball out of the same box
keep in mind that one gold ball from both boxes are removed from the equation before the question is asked
leaving a single gold and a single silver in either box
50/50

>>9980183
read above
first gold is removed from the equation
only a gold and silver are left

[Anonymous No.9980204]

>>9980169

you are correct you don't know what's in the box. but you did not get the correct percentage. Look at the information you have. you **know** you have a gold ball. that's your key. you have knowledge, knowledge is power. that knowledge tells you it's more likely you picked the box with more gold balls in it.

You would be right with 50%
> if you didn't know the color of your ball, and there were those two boxes left

but you do know the color of the ball, which changes the probability.

[Anonymous No.9980210]

>>9980198
>appeal to authority
keep trying Brainlet
once it was thought that the sun revolved around the earth
idgaf about some 19th century troll

[Anonymous No.9980248]

>>9980203
>keep in mind that one gold ball from both boxes are removed from the equation
now you making a wrong assumption.

[Anonymous No.9980252]

>>9980192
i first thought 50% too, but i changed my mind and i feel like a lot of people aren't getting this. if you picked a gold ball, it's not equally likely that you picked that ball from the one with 2 golds or the one with 1 gold and 1 silver. because you picked a gold first, it's more likely that you picked the box with 2 golds, because the other box also had the possibility you could've picked a silver.

it's not about the supposed 2 possibilities - whether you picked the box with 2 golds, and the next one you get is gold, or you picked the one with 1 gold, and the next you get is silver. it's about the chance that you picked the box with 2 gold balls.

[Anonymous No.9980253]

>>9980197
How could you have taken THREE FUCKING STATISTICS COURSES and still can't acknowledge that the answer is 2/3???
Most likely answer is that you took some professor cock for those A's.
Or alternative theory, your college is shit.
Tell me your alma matter so I can laugh at their shitty education.
>inb4 university of Phoenix

[Anonymous No.9980270]

>>9980210
It's not authority you retard, it's the math. It checks out.
>Appeal to retardation
>Official sources say earth is round so it must be flat.
Fucking stupid people I swear.

[Anonymous No.9980281]

>>9980203
lol fucking idiot, there are separate balls in the gold box, they don't magically cancel out...
you could pick gold ball 1 or gold ball 2 from the all gold box, or gold ball 3 from, the gold/silver box, which gives you 2/3 chance.
this is pointless.

[Anonymous No.9980289]

>>9980252
>>first thought 50% too, but i changed my mind
This anon says more about your intelligence than the answer, really.
The smarter you are the more willing you are to question your position.
And that tells me that you are a smart anon indeed.

[Anonymous No.9980300]

>>9980270
top minds of the world also used to think the world was flat
so much for that ayy
keep appealing to the authority of a dead guy

[Anonymous No.9980307]

>>9980281
question is asked after you pick a gold ball, meaning the only possible results are a single gold and a single silver
the question is not "what's the chance of picking a gold your first time"

[Anonymous No.9980308]

>>9980270
I don't even bother with people like that anon.
He isn't arguing the math. He is arguing his position.
And it doesn't matter if that position is wrong. It has to be right because it's his.
No way are you going to convince him otherwise. Don't waste your time.

[Anonymous No.9980315]

two boxes with balls
we label the balls:
a1 a2 and b1 b2
a1 a2 and b1 are gold
you have 1 gold

if you picked a1, you then pick a2...1 for team gold
if you picked a2, you then pick a1...that's 2 for gold
if you picked b1, you then pick b2 which is 1 for silver

there's your 2/3
the issue comes with the wording and treating the initial ball pick as an individual: left or right, and making that decision matter and factor into the equation.

the seemingly realistic physical manifestation is 50/50, but for the mathtards that have to label everything, 2/3 it is.

you win, i change my stance.

[Anonymous No.9980318]

>>9978717
>this thread again

Sure am glad I saved the answer from last time.

[Anonymous No.9980323]

>>9980252

[Anonymous No.9980325]

>>9980308
awful lot of projecting about being stubborn and thinking you are right and everyone else is wrong

[Anonymous No.9980338]

>>9980318
my name is max as well :^)

[Anonymous No.9980339]

>>9980308
Yeah i know, i just wanted to get some samples to see how many retards were here in biz. A lot more than I thought for sure.

[Anonymous No.9980359]

>>9980325
I'm not using ad hominem while arguing a math problem. You do.
I did not put anyone down and tried to explain the problem to people to the best of my abilities. You called people names and explained nothing while refusing to listen.
I did not use
>>END OF DISCUSSION
you did.
I don't argue my position. You do.

[Anonymous No.9980370]

>>9980307
it says you pick a box at random
then you pick a ball at random.
you picked a gold ball.
what are the chances that the next ball from the same box is gold.
there are 2 SEPARATE gold balls in 1 box, then a 1 gold and 1 silver in the next box.
there are 3 different gold balls in 2 boxes.
you have a 2 out of 3 chance to pick a gold ball and have the next ball in the same box be gold.

[Anonymous No.9980371]

If you're not convinced, write a script and see the output for yourself

[Anonymous No.9980401]

>>9980370
brainlet detected

[Anonymous No.9980434]

>>9980370
The question states that there are only two boxes remaining with one ball left in each, simple as that. The past which led to that present scenario is irrelevant, one box has a silver ball remaining, and the other has as second gold. You are either in box 1 or 2, not version a and b of box 1 and box 2.

[Anonymous No.9980451]

>>9980370
the first gold picks are removed from the equation
you have either 100% chance or 0% chance depending on which box you chose
two boxes
50% chance of success

[Anonymous No.9980457]

>>9980318
You're only picking gold from [0][0] or [1][0] when you could also pick [0][1] to get a gold. That's why your result comes out as 50/50.

[Anonymous No.9980523]

might is right and I'll punch all you faggots in the face
it's 50% deal with it

[Anonymous No.9980552]

>>9980434
fucking read it idiot, it literally does not say that. its right up there in the op.

>>9980451
that is fucking dumb because they are not the same ball. It clearly showing 2 separate balls.
you could pick either one, giving 2 separate options for that box.
you don't get to magically cancel them out, they are both possible.

[Anonymous No.9980574]

>>9980552
the balls aren't labelled as ball 1 or ball 2
they are simply gold balks
two possible scenarios... Deal with it kiddo

[Anonymous No.9980590]

>>9980574
lol 3 separate gold balls.
they aren't magic
there are clearly 3 possible scenarios fucking retard.

[Anonymous No.9980628]

>>9980590
there are two boxes so it's only two scenarios
pick box 1 and have 100% chance of a second gold, or pick box 2 and have 0% chance of a second gold
50%

all balls are not in a single box no matter how many mental hoops you jump through

[Anonymous No.9980667]

>>9980552

see this: >>.9980323
it totally blows you the fuck out.

[Anonymous No.9980673]

>>9980552

see this: >>9980323
it totally blows you the fuck out.

[Anonymous No.9980681]

>>9980628
there are 2 boxes with 3 different gold balls you could pick.
fuck me it couldn't get any more clear than that.
you could pick gold ball 1 2 or 3, and the next ball will be gold 2 out of 3 of those possibilities.
its as simple as that kiddo. deal with it.

[Anonymous No.9980693]

>>9980681
and yet there are only two boxes and the chances of you picking the double gold box is... what chance is that?

[Anonymous No.9980698]

10% chance

read em and weep

[Anonymous No.9980699]

Bonus round (which may help comprehension of the problem):
>does the fact that you must draw the second ball from the same box you drew the first change the probability of you drawing a second gold ball?

[Anonymous No.9980707]

this thread gets posted every month or so, usually by newfags that came with everyone else. you'll find that most of the people that complain about /pol/ are from that board originally but just want to escape the memes briefly

anyway, ive been here since late 2015. to be honest with you, /pol/ has always been here, just most of them didnt go hard with the memes until sometime last year. it wasnt until they became a majority that we got flooded with BLACKED threads and various /pol/ related shitposting, which is kinda funny because this is evidence of their theories about becoming a minority in your own country and it going to shit, ect. alot of the newfags havent bothered learning the board culture as well, so we might as well be /pol/ + crypto at this point

[Anonymous No.9980748]

>>9980693
This. Exactly. This is the only thing that matters here. Everything else is a misleading distraction.

[Anonymous No.9980754]

>>9980693
yes, 2 boxes, but 3 different gold balls to pick from.
1 chance to pick gold ball 1 and next ball is gold
1 chance to pick gold ball 2 and next ball is gold
1 chance to pick gold ball 3 and next ball is silver
2 out of 3 chances you pick gold and the next ball from the same box is gold.
simple as that bud.

[Anonymous No.9980770]

>>9980754
nope it doesn't work like that
a gold ball is still a gold ball even if it's numbered

[Anonymous No.9980783]

>>9980693
That's a different question. The issue is that you don't know which box you got the ball from when you draw.

[Anonymous No.9980792]

>>9978717
The only correct answer is that there is either a 100% chance or a 0% chance, which is dependent on which box you picked from initially. With the information given, it is indeterminate which box that is; however, since you picked the gold ball initially, that event has now become a 100% chance, making it independent from any subsequent probabilities.

[Anonymous No.9980798]

>>9980783
when I get home I'm making two boxes and painting four golf balls and you'll see bruh you'll sre

[Anonymous No.9980802]

>>9980770
alright i'm over it, its literally pointless.

[Anonymous No.9980849]

>>9980754

Before you pick the first ball, you are told what the boxes contain.

You are told:

> one box contains only silver,
> one box contains only gold,
> one contains half silver and half gold.

Thus, you know -- because you picked gold -- that THAT box isn't the silver-only box.

You now pick again FROM THE SAME BOX...

...and in that moment, there's only 2 possibilities: that box is either the all-gold box OR IT ISN'T...

So therefore: 50% chance that the next pick is also a gold ball.

As simple as that, buddy.

[Anonymous No.9980940]

>>9980849
>...and in that moment, there's only 2 possibilities: that box is either the all-gold box OR IT ISN'T...
correct. except the question isn't 'what is the probability that you have picked the all-gold box'. there's the rub!

[Anonymous No.9980968]

>>9980940
or is it?

[Anonymous No.9980977]

>>9980940
basically it is as only the double gold box can produce a second gold ball

[Anonymous No.9980987]

>>9980849
this is only true if you don't consider the gold balls to be separate possibilities to be chosen, which they clearly are.
there is a probability you will pick 1 of 3 distinct gold balls.
2 of those 3 possible picks will give you a gold ball on the next pick from the same box.

[Anonymous No.9981013]

>>9978717
It's 2/3. Gas the kikes.

[Anonymous No.9981025]

The thing with people like r41MnkYB is that in situations like this, they're in a battle between their autism and reality. They're totally stuck in that battle, often without even realizing it: they believe their autism is reality and they can't see the actual real reality. So there's 0 chance they can realize the correct answer to the OP pic question. For in order to do that, they must first realize the world inside their autistic head isn't reality - they need to realize reality can be totally different than their autistic interpretation/warping of reality. And that is extremely difficult for them (often it's impossible). They simply can't climb up out of the autism-generated hole they've fallen into. Nor do they realize they're even in that hole. You can show them pictures of reality, of the world above their hole, and give them facts and objective info, but it means nothing to them: to them the hole is the real world - and the hole is the whole world, there's nothing outside of it.

[Anonymous No.9981063]

>>9981025
it's called Bertrand's box paradox.
look it up.

[Anonymous No.9981069]

>>9981025
blah blah blah
there are two boxes
one box gives you a second gold ball
the other doesn't
you can only pick one box
laws of this universe state you will always pick a gold as your first so the odds for that are irrelevant
50/50

deal with it and keep projecting

[Anonymous No.9981073]

>>9981025
wait nvm I thought you were other I'd

[Anonymous No.9981074]

50%

Not a /pol/tard but /pol/ is basically /biz/ making money about political/economics news instead of just argue about them looking like a boring faggot.

[Anonymous No.9981122]

>>9979990

[Anonymous No.9981131]

>>9980307
>the question is not "what's the chance of picking a gold your first time"
actually, I think whether this is the question is exactly the crux of the issue (and the source of a paradox). some people are claiming that the inherent odds of having a gold ball in the first place are involved in the calculation, and others are saying that since the chance of getting a gold ball is 1, it boils down to the 50% remaining option.

some people are bundling the odds of being in the gold box and other people are taking being in either box as a 50% implicit state.

instead i googled it

Suppose there are three cards:

A black card that is black on both sides,
A white card that is white on both sides, and
A mixed card that is black on one side and white on the other.
All the cards are placed into a hat and one is pulled at random and placed on a table. The side facing up is black. What are the odds that the other side is also black?

The answer is that the other side is black with probability 2/3. However, common intuition suggests a probability of 1/2 either because there are two cards with black on them that this card could be, or because there are 3 white and 3 black sides and many people forget to eliminate the possibility of the "white card" in this situation (i.e. the card they flipped CANNOT be the "white card" because a black side was turned over).

In a survey of 53 Psychology freshmen taking an introductory probability course, 35 incorrectly responded 1/2; only 3 students correctly responded 2/3.

Another presentation of the problem is to say : pick a random card out of the three, what are the odds that it has the same color on the other side? Since only one card is mixed and two have the same color on their sides, it is easier to understand that the probability is
2/3. Also note that saying that the color is black (or the coin is gold) instead of white doesn't matter since it is symmetric: the answer is the same for white.

[Anonymous No.9981162]

>>9981069
look it up cunt, then come back and admit you were wrong.
>>9981063

[Anonymous No.9981179]

Holy fuck whoever said 2/3 hahahahhaha

[Anonymous No.9981211]

you're in a gameshow
>there are three boxes in front of you
>you're told one box has 2 gold balls etc...
>you have to choose the box containing 2 gold balls to win much crypto
>you look at the boxes
>you notice one box hasn't been sealed completely
>you can see the edge of a gold ball in that one box
>you pick that box because you can math and understand that, due to your prior knowledge, there is a 2/3 chance it has another gold ball in it
>gameshow thot opens the box and the second ball is grey
>you lose and are dragged from the stage crying 'but mah 2/3 chance'!!
t. you don't automatically win crypto (and thot) because you can math

[Anonymous No.9981219]

>>9981162
some dead fuck from the 19th century
because people have never been wrong before especially about their own ideas
remember dip shit, the earth is round, we revolve around the sun, and we spin while moving around

[Anonymous No.9981235]

>this thread
>hahaaha holy fuck anyone saying 1/2 will NOT make it brainlets lmao
>hahhahahAHHAh fucking hell anyone saying 2/3 is fucking RETARDED hahahaha brainlets
only one group is right, and it's the side supporting 2/3
the other group acknowledges that one box is more likely to have drawn a gold out of and is ignoring that probability on purpose and considering the two odds independent of one another. this is considered a paradox for a reason, but realistically, the two odds are not independent of one another despite the question phrasing it as though they are.

[Anonymous No.9981236]

>>9978895
The way i understand it this is right. Is op saying its wrong?

[Anonymous No.9981301]

>>9981236
if you pull a gold ball, you are actually more likely in one box than the other, because one box was more likely to give you a gold. people will tell you that since it was a given in the question that you can ignore this probability, but you can't.

[Anonymous No.9981312]

>>9981219
holy fuck dude they knew the earth was round in like 500BC.
does that mean the earth is not round?
It was some dead fuck from a long time ago after all.
not a single mathematician agrees with you, what about that little problem?
he's not the only one who came up with 2/3 dumbass.

[Anonymous No.9981405]

>>9980940
The question is "What's the chance the next ball is gold?" but the entire thing itself IS about the boxes, and the fact you already know what they contain; you just don't know which box you picked from. The answer to the question ("What's the chance the next ball is gold?"), lies in the fact that you already picked a gold ball. This fact means there's a 50/50 chance the box has another gold ball.

Why should already be obvious. But it's because there'a a 50/50 chance of that box being the box which contains two gold balls. If it's not that box, then it's the box with one silver and one gold - and in that case you already took that gold ball so the remaining one is the silver.

You know all this while you are doing the picking etc. Are you saying we should ignore the knowledge we have? If so, that's anti-intelligence.

(continued in next message...)

[Anonymous No.9981444]

>>9981405
>>9980940

continued:

Think of it this way:

Say you're given 3 cars. All are identical models and in identical condition. They're brand new and there's nothing wrong with them. They run on gasoline. All are unlocked and all have their keys laying on the drivers seat. BUT all of the cars have their fuel gauge removed, so you can't know how much fuel is in the tank.

>one has a totally empty gas tank and there's absolutely no traces of gasoline left anywhere, so the car won't even start
>one has a full tank of gas
>one has a tank filled with lots of gas but it isn't full

You're informed of the above. But you're not allowed to check (in any way) how much gas is in any of the cars.

You're told to drive one of the cars to a destination so far away that it will exactly need a full tank of gas and there's no gas station along the road and you're not allowed to bring any gas in any manner. You're only allowed to refuel once you reach the destination. You will be left alone on the road. Nothing will interfere with you. There are no other vehicles on the road and the weather is perfect and you're a good driver, so there's no chance of an accident.

You get in to one car. You turn the key and it starts!

The question: Now, what's the chance you will be able to drive to the destination?

Answer: It's 50/50. Because the car started, which means it's not the car without gas. It must be either the car with a full tank, or the car with lots of gas (but not full). So you have a 50/50 chance of having enough gas to reach the destination.

[Anonymous No.9981445]

>>9981405
>lies in the fact that you already picked a gold ball. This fact means there's a 50/50 chance the box has another gold ball.
2 boxes. 1 has 100 gold balls and the other has 1 gold and 99 silver balls.
If you pull a gold ball, is there an equal chance of you being in either box? there are far more situations where you pull a gold ball from box 1, so you cant ignore that. the same is true if there are only 2 balls; there are more samples with gold balls from box 1 than from box 2.
the odds are not 50/50.

[Anonymous No.9981446]

>>9978895
You're answering a question that is different from the one in the OP. OP's image does not say "If you pick a random ball it will always be gold." It simply says "You picked a random ball and it happened to be gold."

You would be correct and it would be 50% if you had a magic gold-ball magnet that always gets a gold ball out of the box without you actually seeing inside, but that's obviously not the scenario in question. You are simply asked to reason what the probability is of you having picked either box based only on the color of the first ball you picked. Knowing that you picked a gold ball helps you with that because one of the boxes was twice as likely to result in gold as the other. Therefore you are twice as likely (2/3) to have picked the gold-gold box than you are to have picked the gold-silver box (1/3).

If you have any experience with coding or scripting you can prove this to yourself easily. The algorithm is simple (and could be simplified much further, e.g. by eliminating the all-silver box, with the same result but is expanded to match the OP's scenario as exactly as possible).
1. Set up a 2D array where the first index represents a box and the second index represents a ball: [0][0] = gold, [0][1] = gold, [1][0] = gold, [1][1] = silver, [2][0] = silver, [2][1] = silver.
2. Obtain a random integer from 0 to 2. This is your "box".
3. Obtain a random integer from 0 to 1. This is your "ball".
4. Check the value of [box][ball].
5. If silver, reset and log nothing - as per the OP we only care about the situation where the random ball is gold.
6. If gold, log the color of the OTHER ball in your selected box.
7. Repeat until satisfied.
You can also do this in real life with boxes and balls or cups and coins or whatever else as long as you can select a random object from your container without peeking or cheating. In either case, you will find that "gold" is logged twice as often as "silver" if conducted with a large enough number of iterations.

[Anonymous No.9981519]

>>9981444
The question of course isn't "did you pick the car with enough gas" or "does your tank contain enough gas" but that's what it's all about, because that determines the "Yes" or "No" to the question "Will I be able to drive this car to the destination?"

[Anonymous No.9981530]

>>9981444
>You get in to one car. You turn the key and it starts!
this is where your analogy breaks down. having gas means 100% chance the car starts, having a gold ball doesnt mean you had 100% chance of drawing it.
if the car with a not-full tank had a chance chance of not starting, your analogy would be sound, and it starting would mean that you are more likely in the car with a full tank.

[Anonymous No.9981598]

Can't argue with a computer, lads. It's definitely 2/3. If you argue against this logic, you might actually be retarded

[Anonymous No.9981601]

>>9978717
(0/2 + 1/2) / 2 = 1/4
its counter intuitive and i wouldnt fault anyone for getting it wrong, though :)

[Anonymous No.9981606]

>>9981601
this post is too wholesome to argue with. you do you, anon. some of the kindest people i have met have been not so bright.

[Anonymous No.9981619]

>>9981445
man there's a huge difference between
a box of 100 gold and a box of 99 silver and 1 gold
vs
a box of 2 gold and a box of 1 gold and 1 silver

in the first (your) scenario it's obvious to the picker that it's more likely that he picked from the box with 100 gold balls since he got a gold ball

but in the second scenario, the OP scenario, picking a gold ball doesn't mean anything, since it's not unlikely or strange or shocking at all that you could have picked a gold ball from the box with 1 gold and 1 silver, it could've been either box based on the knowledge you have (that you're holding a gold ball)

you'd be like oh i got a gold ball, whatever man, doesn't tell me anything since there was always half a chance of that happening anyway

[Anonymous No.9981639]

>>9981619
>in the first (your) scenario it's obvious to the picker that it's more likely that he picked from the box with 100 gold balls since he got a gold ball
and this is exactly the point I make anon, thank you for noticing. there are more samples with gold balls being pulled from box 1, so youre more likely pulling from that ball for the second sample.
you should understand exactly why its 2/3 now in OPs scenario. all I did was make it, like you said, more obvious

[Anonymous No.9981654]

I calculated 40%

[Anonymous No.9981668]

>>9981598
Monty Hall is a filter for people who literally say,
>I don't care what all of the more intelligent people and simulations are telling me! They're all wrong and I'm right!
Like this guy
>>9979808

[Anonymous No.9981675]

>>9981530
I think what he means is that the car starting is equivalent to getting a gold ball. You missed that. You see, when you get the gold ball you know there's a 50% chance the next ball will be silver and 50% chance it will be gold. Because you know the box you picked from wasn't the silver only box. If the car starts you know it's not the car with an empty tank. So it's a 50% chance it's the car with a full tank, therefore it's a 50% chance you reach the destination.

[Anonymous No.9981692]

>>9981619
Lol. Do the math, bro. 2 > 1.
You're more likely to pick a gold ball from a box with 2 gold balls than you are to pick one from a box with just 1 gold ball.

[Anonymous No.9981702]

>>9981639

>changing OPs scenario to try to prove you are correct

But it's not 100 balls per box. It's 2 balls per box so it's not obvious at all. That you drew a golden ball means nothing.

[Anonymous No.9981705]

>>9978717
Stop being so /pol/iphobic. Diversity is our strength.

[Anonymous No.9981707]

>>9981446
Finally, for those who would rather try to understand the logic rather than just brute force it with a simulation or real-life experiment, here's another way of looking at it that you might find more intuitive than the more common explanations:
Let's say the box/ball setup is same as the one described in the OP. Let's ask two slightly differently phrased questions:
A. Pick a random box. Without looking inside or taking any balls, determine the probability that the box you picked has two balls of the same color.
It should be intuitively clear that the answer to that question is 2/3. Let's rephrase it again:
B: Pick a random box. If you were to take a random ball from your box, what is the likelihood that it will be the same color as the remaining ball in your box?
This is functionally the same question as A: if you picked a box with two balls of the same color then the second ball you pick will always be the same color as the first. Half the time your first ball will be silver and half the time it will be gold, but MORE than half the time you will find that the remaining ball is the same color as the one you picked. OP's image is simply a further rephrasing of question B, where you draw your conclusion after picking your first ball but before picking your second. None of your decisions or observations to this point were ones that change the original answer of question A.

>>9981619
>man there's a huge difference between [the 100 ball and 2 ball scenarios]
Yes, there is. That's why the 100 ball scenario has slightly over 99% probability while the 2 ball scenario has merely a 2/3 probability.

[Anonymous No.9981711]

>>9981122
kek wel done

[Anonymous No.9981719]

>>9981675
>I think what he means is that the car starting is equivalent to getting a gold ball. You missed that.
no, i completely understand how his analogy explains his rationale. i also explain why it's wrong, because getting a gold ball does not mean you had an equal chance of drawing the gold ball from both boxes. his analogy implies that a box with fewer gold balls (less gas) has an equal chance of drawing one (turning over). if you change it to meaning that a car with less gas has a smaller chance of turning over on the first key turn, but a full tank always turns over on turn 1, and the car turns over on the first crank, you are not guaranteed to be, but more likely are, in the car with a full tank.

[Anonymous No.9981730]

>>9981702
>It's 2 balls per box so it's not obvious at all.
well yeah no shit, if it were obvious I wouldnt have to keep explaining it to you. changing the scenario with the exact same premise just changes the numbers in the math but the function remains the exact same. with a box with two gold balls and a box with one, you are more likely to have drawn from the box with two gold balls in it. all I do in my example with more balls is illustrate that more cleanly.

[Anonymous No.9981736]

>>9981692
>>9981675
>>9981654
>>9981446
>>9981519

All you retards wasting time screaming at each other using useless analogies that aren't relatable back to the original question.

I (>>9981598) spent the time creating a model of the situation and replicating 100,000 total trials of the experiment. It clearly shows that 2/3 times you draw a gold ball on the first try, your second ball will also be gold. My code can be found here: https://pastebin.com/rSv8Y3tS and can be tested on your own on ANY website that will compile and run javascript / typescript files for you.

Congrats on wasting time arguing instead of creating empirical evidence of your case, I'm sure you guys are gonna go far in life.

[Anonymous No.9981801]

>>9981736
>All you retards wasting time screaming at each other using useless analogies that aren't relatable back to the original question.
You say that but all you did was post some code that implements the exact algorithm described in >>9981446

Just telling someone the answer isn't helping them understand WHY the answer is the way it is, and that's what gets people hung up. Nobody gets 50/50 because they made a miscalculation, they get it because they don't understand how to calculate the correct probabilities in the first place. The script is great for helping people realize that they're wrong and open them up to learning where they made their mistake in reasoning, but they still need that mistake to be identified in the first place if they want to avoid repeating it in the future.

[Anonymous No.9981813]

>>9981801
>Just telling someone the answer isn't helping them understand WHY the answer is the way it is
thats my job, apparently
>>9981730
>>9981719
>>9981639
>>9981301

[Anonymous No.9981816]

>>9981801
Honestly there’s no better way to describe why someone’s wrong than showing them cold hard logical paths (If this, then this). This thread clearly shows trying to make an analogy or similar situation to relate to doesn’t help at all. Then again some people are just retarded beyond help.

[Anonymous No.9981827]

>>9981816
>This thread clearly shows trying to make an analogy or similar situation to relate to doesn’t help at all.
respectfully disagree, analogy is a pretty good way to teach, imo. taking the dude's starting car analogy and changing it into something that actually supports the question might have helped get the point across.

[Anonymous No.9981863]

>>9981827
Agree to disagree. I re-factored homies code from earlier to be more readable to some one who might not have that knowledge-base, giving them insight as to why it’s more likely to grab another gold ball after the first. It’s also nice seeing multiple runs and the output right next to it.

[Anonymous No.9981866]

>>9981736
>If I put retarded bullshit into code it's true!

That's some pajeet thinking right there.

[Anonymous No.9981896]

>>9981866
Please, if you think there’s a logical error in the code, feel free to let me know where and why and Ill consider it

[Anonymous No.9981912]

>>9981863
>I re-factored homies code
some people learn differently than others, programmers might definitely learn well from looking at code. for other people, "explaining like they're five" is solid. I know despite being familiar with programming I tend towards analogy, but for a black-and-white programmer, it makes sense to see something more cleanly in a logical data structure.

[Anonymous No.9981943]

>>9981896
>from the SAME box

You're projecting the Monty hall problem onto this where you get to have a choice. You don't get to choose in OP's pic.

[Anonymous No.9981964]

>>9981943
his code specifically says math.random, so he isnt choosing. its effectively like rolling a die and going 1 and 2 are box one, 3 and 4 are box two, and 5 and 6 are box 3. the ball picking, also being math.random, is effectively a coin flip. it properly seeds the outcomes with the odds of picking a gold ball from either box, one box of which has a higher chance of being gold.

[Anonymous No.9981966]

>>9981816
i'm not a coder, so maybe i'm missing something, but why would you keep the silver/silver box in the model...seems like it would skew given the premise

the biggest issue seems to be where you start the problem:
the math guys seem to want to start it at just before the point of "you picked a ball at random". all the 2/3-types go at it based on how you arrived at the gold ball in hand...did you choose from g/g or g/s? did you pick right or left?
the 50/50 see all that previous stuff as done and determined, and saying "there cannot be ≥ 2 balls in this box, as i am holding 1, so the next one is either gold or it isn't"

paradox, you say?

[Anonymous No.9981977]

>>9981943
The second ball is always drawn from the same box as the first ball. The starting box is randomly chosen. This is exactly as it is spec’d out in the OP.

[Anonymous No.9981979]

>>9978717
I browse /pol/ but I study economics and I am interested in crypto.Am I allowed?

[Anonymous No.9981989]

>>9981964
It's not whether it's random or chosen. You don't get to do any of that in OP's pic.

[Anonymous No.9981999]

The easiest way to solve this problem is to imagine that one box has 100 gold balls and the other box has 1 gold ball and 99 silver balls. If you pulled a golden ball, it is way more likely that you grabbed it from the first box.

[Anonymous No.9982007]

>>9981966
>why would you keep the silver/silver box in the model...seems like it would skew given the premise
because it basically makes a pick from a box and discards it if it's not gold, because the trials only care about the pulls that start with a gold ball. it's not skewing any data.
>>9981989
the OP says "box and ball chosen at random". how do you plan on picking at random if you dont pick... at random?

[Anonymous No.9982009]

>>9981966
I left it in to more accurately model the problem space. You have 3 boxes and are randomly selecting one. There IS a chance you pick the s/s box.

The code picks one of the boxes (randomBox). It then chooses a random ball (randomBall). It then chooses the other ball from the box (the weird line with a question mark). If both balls are gold, it increments the success count. If the second ball was silver, failure count increments.

I keep the s/s box because the “total” variable is only incremented if the first ball I drew is gold

[Anonymous No.9982023]

>>9982009
>There IS a chance you pick the s/s box.
not based on the stated premise
but if your code is effectively ignoring it, i guess it doesn't matter

[Anonymous No.9982031]

>>9982007
The question isn't asking you about picking between 3 boxes. It's only asking you about the result from one (1) box.

[Anonymous No.9982047]

>>9982031
>>9982023
FWIW, the code DOES ignore the s/s case (the very first if statement won’t execute if the first ball is silver). I put it in for accuracy’s sake.

[Anonymous No.9982048]

>>9981999
Is there anyone that can find a flaw in this logic?

[Anonymous No.9982049]

>>9982031
>The question isn't asking you about picking between 3 boxes.

>There are 3 boxes
>You pick box at random
HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

[Anonymous No.9982065]

>>9981736
I think you make a wrong assumption (when you choose the first box) but I'll write my own code because I don't Java.

[Anonymous No.9982071]

>>9982048
This is the best simplification I can relate to. It clarifies that if you draw a gold ball first, you are much more likely to be in the box with a high % of gold balls

[Anonymous No.9982073]

>>9982049
if we start the question with "you are in cleveland", does that affect anything else that's presented?

[Anonymous No.9982077]

>>9982049
Reading comprehension? You'll notice the pic doesn't ask you to choose between 3 boxes, that's just set up for the actual question which involves only one (1) box.

[Anonymous No.9982084]

>>9982065
It’s typescript, but I do encourage you to write it on your own. It’ll teach you the logic behind this. Post it here and have others review it to find flaws in your way of thinking.

Always stay learning anon

[Anonymous No.9982093]

>>9981999
But that's not what the question is asking though.

[Anonymous No.9982094]

>>9982077
No, having 3 separate boxes is literally vital to the question, it’s the core of the problem and why so many people choose 50% instead of 2/3

[Anonymous No.9982100]

>>9982048
read the thread,
>>9979438
>>9979438
youll see that nobody has been able to refute it and nobody will be able to start now. all they do is claim its not the question at hand even though its the same thing scaled up.

[Anonymous No.9982104]

>>9982093
It’s a simplification you mong. It’s supposed to help morons like you realize the probability of choosing a gold ball first is higher in the all-gold box

[Anonymous No.9982152]

>>9982084
I convinced myself, 2/3 of choosing first box, 1/3 of choosing second one.

[Anonymous No.9982155]

>>9982049
It's not a random pick. You're only allowed to pick from one and the same box both times.

[Anonymous No.9982219]

>>9982155
Which is the same as being allowed only one attempt to pick the correct box out of a choice of three boxes.

[Anonymous No.9982230]

>>9981736

> looked at your code
> code quote:
> ['silver', 'silver'],
> ['gold', 'silver'],
> ['gold', 'gold'],

Moron. Your code is fundamentally flawed (fucks up the whole equation and gives misleading result) because it bases the whole calculation on 3 boxes. When in reality there's only 2 boxes. Since the third one (the one with only silver balls) doesn't count. That box is totally irrelevant. Your code therefore absolute bullshit and nobody should use it.

[Anonymous No.9982233]

>>9982084
Someone posted this the other day and I may have to give it a go. I'm beyond rusty in a lot of things, I used to work with tree algorithms, moved to entry level manager because of pay and I've become completely stupid since then. Now it's like everything is a bit familiar but I don't get it.

[Anonymous No.9982252]

>>9978717
its a number really close to 50%. A gold ball on the first try means its not the 3rd box with 2 silvers balls. So the question asks if whether the 1st box or 2nd box was chosen and shouldn't take into account the probabilities of choosing among 3 boxes or 6 balls or anything up until the point of the information given. That would be 50/50 since the remaining ball might be gold or silver. But quantum weirdness tells us theres a non zero chance that what you just read is wrong, that the information given isn't correct in your memory as you remember it and it just might be the case that the ball in your hand is a silver one. So close to 50%.

[Anonymous No.9982258]

>>9982219
You're not given any "attempt" and there is no "correct" box. It is already established that you have taken a gold ball. And you must take again from that same box.

[Anonymous No.9982260]

>>9982230
The boxes you end having in the end are [gold1, gold2], [gold2, gold1], [gold, silver].

[Anonymous No.9982309]

>>9978717
The correct answer is: 50% but if you have autism it can be anything.

90% of my browsing here is on /biz/, very rarely go to /pol/

[Anonymous No.9982312]

>>9981736
>being this stupid

[Anonymous No.9982339]

>>9982252
kek you get it

[Anonymous No.9982342]

part of the problem with the 50/50 crowd's stubbornness is that all of the early 2/3rds really sucked at elaborating their point, and used their recollection of the correct answer to back nonsense explanations like "its not about the boxes"

It's all about the boxes. The distinction is that it's not about the odds of your future decision. the probability is determined by the the odds of which PRESENT you are in. focusing on the future possiblities of which ball you'll get obscures the reality that which ball you'll get next was already determined by which box you picked on your first draw.

possible outcome: 50/50
probable outcome: 67/33

[Anonymous No.9982386]

>>9982260
HAHAHAHAHA holy shit thats retarded
his code needs only 2 boxes:
the ['gold', 'silver'] box
and the ['gold', 'gold'] box

[Anonymous No.9982391]

>>9982342
give this man a fucking medal

[Anonymous No.9982396]

Note: eat shit I hate you all.

[Anonymous No.9982404]

>>9982260
>[gold1, gold2], [gold2, gold1]

This is literally retarded. And there are brainlets on here that tried to shill this as """proof""".

[Anonymous No.9982422]

>>9982386
das bullying

[Anonymous No.9982423]

>>9982342
>focusing on the future possiblities of which ball you'll get obscures the reality that which ball you'll get next was already determined by which box you picked on your first draw.
this is 100% the correct answer, but they won't believe you.

[Anonymous No.9982428]

2/3
used to browse 8/pol before it went to shit
biggest holding ETH

[Anonymous No.9982439]

>>9980318

Max, Your script never picks gold from box 2. That's why you're outcome is 50%. You're forcing that probability. Also, if you pick silver first try it needs to be rejected. This exercise starts with gold as the start of the problem.

Here's the correct answer:
https://jsbin.com/vifeyitobi/1/edit?js,output

[Anonymous No.9982446]

>>9978717
about tree fiddy

[Anonymous No.9982474]

>>9981236
Op here, the right answer is 2/3.
Anyone that says 50% will not make it.

[Anonymous No.9982478]

>>9982404
It's the same box it's just not distinguishable, but it's not the same box, the code is words.

[Anonymous No.9982489]

>>9982049

There aren't three boxes after the question is asked. You already picked a ball from one of the boxes. This automatically removes one of the boxes (if you picked a silver ball the all-gold box is removed, and if you picked a gold ball the all-silver box is removed). It is AFTER THAT (that initial picking) the question is asked. At the point of the question, the "3 boxes" isn't a factor anymore.

picture related

[Anonymous No.9982516]

>>9982230
You realize those silver silver cases are ignored right? It's only there for the brainlets who think all the boxes are relevant to the question.

[Anonymous No.9982522]

Well that was fun bros.
The answer is 2/3.
If you chose 1/2 but admitted that you were wrong you might still make it.
If you doubled down on your retardation there's no helping you and you'll never make it.

[Anonymous No.9982523]

>>9982342
it's a litmus test for dunning-kruger, the slightly above average types who compare themselves to average dumb people and walk through life feeling like they're geniuses
they get their gotcha moment eliminating the box of gray balls, and they reason this makes it 1/2
once the reason for 2/3 is pointed out, their perspective is cemented enough in the present chance they will rationalize the answer away as incorrect semantics ("the question asks what is the probability NOW, not in the past"), without understanding the mutability of starting conditions
it's a fairly interesting test of where abstraction capabilities break down at given intelligence levels. we ran this test internally at my medium-size company (~600ish people), and crosschecking it with the IQ test data we have (call the cops idgaf), 1/2 people lean towards the 105ish range while 2/3 people are about one SD higher
(also interestingly, there's a greater rate of 2/3 answers in sub-100 IQ participants. this is because they're more likely to come to any answer randomly, whereas slightly smarter people have a path laid out for them to come to the wrong conclusion and feel it's the right one)

[Anonymous No.9982543]

>>9982489
Precicely. This is what the 2/3 crowd doesn't understand.

[Anonymous No.9982545]

>>9982489
There are subspaces of reality where we only had one box and one ball but we can't get there fast enough.

[Anonymous No.9982556]

140 iq checking In
50%
I am disappointed in all the 2/3ers but that's the state of this board
Tip: You don't put the gold ball back after you took it out, that counters the visual explanation.

[Anonymous No.9982557]

>>9978717
>>>/fa/cebook

[Anonymous No.9982600]

this thread is a goldmine

it's simple - your hand stays in the same box all the time, as your first ball is a gold ball it means you put your hand inside the box of 2 goldballs or 1 goldball & 1 silverball

so you have 2 boxes in which your hand could be inside, therefore you have only two choices of what next ball could be

either gold or silver

50/50

[Anonymous No.9982613]

>>9982556
>140 iq checking In
>50%
you missed a decimal in your IQ somewhere.

[Anonymous No.9982626]

>>9982545
There are only two realities. In one reality you have two balls and one of them doesn't work. In the other reality you also have two balls but they both don't work (your balls are inert: https://youtu.be/VV26WcDrHoo ). So the question: what's the probability of you successfully impregnating Taylor Swift?

[Anonymous No.9982664]

>>9982626
We could never know the balls just that at some point maybe I had 2 balls so I could still be Tay Tay's son.

[Anonymous No.9982679]

>>9982489
here's an improvement of your pic to make it even more obvious for the 2/3rd autists

[Anonymous No.9982687]

>>9982489
here's an improvement of your pic to make it even more obvious for the 2/3rd autists

forgot pic... deleting old message...

[Anonymous No.9982741]

This thread shows how many /pol/tards browsing /biz/. GTFO /pol/tards. Crypto is libertarian. You're not welcome here. REEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

[Anonymous No.9982752]

This thread is now on Archive, enjoy:

https://archive.is/TQPwE

[Anonymous No.9982755]

>>9981211
the math of the OP problem is the same as it is in this example. 2/3 is correct.
>also, I just bumped my only reply. must buy link as punishment

[Anonymous No.9982811]

>>9981211

>you pick that box because you can math and understand that, due to your prior knowledge, there is a 2/3 chance it has another gold ball in it

Correction:

>you pick that box because you can math and understand that, due to your prior knowledge, there is a 50/50 chance it has another gold ball in it

You knew there was at least 1 gold ball in it, so that box couldn't have been the box with only silver. So it became a 50/50 chance of it being the box with another gold ball. So you knew you had a 50% chance of winning and a 50% chance of losing.

[Anonymous No.9982816]

>>9982755
>"the math of the OP problem is the same as it is in this example"
indeed, same result, see: >>9982811

[Anonymous No.9982824]

>>9978717
Isn't it 2/5 or 40 %? I browse /pol/ but I'm a jew so naturally master race.

[Anonymous No.9982830]

>Business and FInance

[Anonymous No.9982835]

>>9982824

[Anonymous No.9982843]

I have tried hard to find the logic of the 2/3ers and this is what I've found.
Existential question: which gold ball did you pick in round 1? Note: this is different from the gamblers fallacy: (did you pick a gold ball in round 1)

To That questio, I reply, there is 2/3 chance I picked one of box 1s gold balls, and 1/3 chance I picked box 2s gold ball. This will allow you to extrapolate their final answer of 2/3.

Now for us halfies: our existential question is, given that a gold ball is in your hand, which box did you choose in round 1? To which we wa say, there's only 2 possibilities, which you can extrapolate to 50%.

Understanding both positions of a paradox is good for mental elasticity and therefore worth my precious wagecuck free time.
>inb4 cope

[Anonymous No.9983013]

>>9982843
>Now for us halfies: our existential question is, given that a gold ball is in your hand, which box did you choose in round 1? To which we wa say, there's only 2 possibilities, which you can extrapolate to 50%.

Incorrect.
The thing is, as you said, you don't know which box you chose.
So if you treat the two boxes as if they were one (which basically is the same as having two boxes probability wise), you would wound up with a box that contains 2 gold balls (because you already took one out) and 1 silver ball.
Hence, you have three balls left. The question is: what's the probability of taking out another gold ball?
Easy, 2 out of the 3 balls are made from gold.
So, the answer is 2/3.

[Anonymous No.9983136]

>>9982843
>given that a gold ball is in your hand, which box did you choose in round 1? To which we wa say, there's only 2 possibilities
>one of which is more likely than the other, because despite knowing that it has to be box 1 or box 2, having picked the gold ball at random was more likely in box 1
"picking the gold ball at random" has twice as many outcomes that result in the first box. people choose to purposefully ignore this and the 100 ball version of this hasnt been refuted. if it assumed you picked the gold ball, would it more likely have been out of the box with 100 gold balls or the box with one gold ball and 99 silver balls? this line of reasoning is literally checkmate to 50%ers. the only argument they have it "but that isnt the question" even though its the exact same question with the probabilities a lot clearer.

[Anonymous No.9983202]

The thing is, you haven't picked from the 3rd box, but you didn't know this until it was revealed it didn't exist so you could still find more boxes so we can't find how many boxes there are or if they change while they don't exist unless you can see inside every other box but this hasn't happened.

[Anonymous No.9983294]

Its a matter of from where you view the situation imo

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

[Anonymous No.9983527]

>>9983294
Reading comprehensionand probable severability bro, the OP states that you have already drawn the first golden ball. Regardless of the GG box having a one thirds chance of yielding that first gold, and the GS box only having a one sixth chance, the current situation is that you have two current possibilities before drawing, a box with one gold ball remaining, or a box with one silver ball remaining. 50/50