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2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance

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9920645 No.9920645 [Reply] [Original]

Been here since 2012, and the only thing which has changed is the amount of FUD, chaos, shilling, herding and confusion that is going on. When MT.Gox was happening I was there, sitting behind my computer daily for hours from December to February and even then people where calmer and more organized than today. The amount of panic and despair was several times less than we are experiencing right now. Even after people got justed for 1000-10k BTC, there was still a lot of positivity in the air in the year after.

We are entering entirely new waters. You can overlay any historical chart you want, but there is nobody who knows where Bitcoin or any other will go next. Even the manipulators will get rekt when the next catalyst appears or the one keeping us up drops out. Personally I think its just as feasible to wake up to BTC costing 500$ tomorrow as it somehow jumping up to $21k in one night. All is needed, is a single catalyst to inject a few trillions (state level actor) or satoshi to move his coins and spark panic (1 mil+ BTC).

>> No.9921565

Interesting, tell us more.

>> No.9921770
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9921770

>>9921565

That's pretty much it. We'll be waiting for a catalyst and nothing else. Forget predictions, comparisons or meme lines. A catalyst may appear tomorrow, in a year or three from now. May start slowly, may start overnight. My advice is to find fresh fiat and DCA it back into crypto slowly. Best chance to make it once we do go up. Personally hoping for 6 months of sideways action here so I can accumulate enough for the next cycle.

>> No.9921786

>>9921770
So what you are advising is to just wait and ignore any predictions because the market itself is unpredictable?

>> No.9921876
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9921876

>>9921786

Pretty much. Your or my prediction is not any more credible at this point than any "expert" Crypto "influencer" or TA hotshot. What is happening to the markets is entirely different from the cycles and years leading up to it. There is no precedent. Short term gains may be made, but by majority will be wiped out when the real happening starts. And sure, some predictions may be right, but you'll be taking a shot in the dark. If you believe that crypto will stay around, your best bet is to slowly and carefully start accumulating.

>> No.9921889

>>9921876
BTC futures killed everything, institutions don't care about the price of BTC, they make money either way trading off the price swings.

>> No.9921892
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9921892

>>9920645
>Been here since 2012

Interesting.
Wasnt /biz/ created in 2013?

>> No.9921898

>2018
>people still giving a fuck about btc

>> No.9921909

>>9921892

In Crypto since 2012. 4chan for over a decade,
/biz/ since December, so I am kinda newfag around these parts

>> No.9921912

ETF will be the next catalyst.

>> No.9921928

>>9921876
thats pic doesnt even describe survivorship bias

>> No.9921961
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9921961

>>9921928

Better? Honestly don't really feel like having to explain fallacies/biases.

>Google: Survivorship bias
> Copy, paste

>> No.9921964

>>9921889
This. And any faggot who shorts BTC has let us down greatly.

>> No.9922008

Oh, someone just needs to inject a few trillions.

>> No.9922062

>>9922008

Not saying it is needed or that someone will. Definitely not throwing it out of the realm of possibilities that it may happen at any point in Crypto's lifetime. A nation state may just convert a lot of funds to circumvent embargo's. It's a plausible future catalyst for growth. And while people are pre-occupied with the issue of Tether, a nation state could just print fiat and inject it into the market without anyone finding out. Would be surprised if that wasn't happening already actually to some degree.

>> No.9922376

>>9921928
wtf? Yes it does

>> No.9922395
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9922395

>> No.9922524

>>9922395

I feel like a Crack addict going through withdrawals looking at that chart. When rally?

>> No.9922593

>>9922376
it describes an event where survivorship bias didnt happen

>> No.9922782

>>9921876
That actually sounds like the correct course of action. You can't add endless amounts of armor to an airplane due to aero dynamics so they have a limited amount to put and if the planes that came didn't have bullet holes in some places then that's the place that needs more armor not the less critical places.

>> No.9922790

>>9920645
12 year olds who missed the boat convincing themselves they are going to be millionaires by week's end

>> No.9923472

>>9922782
you're right anon, that is the correct approach. A person who excludes the bias in the assessment will add armor to the bullet hole areas.

>> No.9924123

>>9921770
that's exactly my plan, weekly small buys of large cap's. I have a feeling we'll be sideways with ups and down's for the next few months, maybe a long slow climb up towards the end of the year/beginning of next year... Crypto infrastructure still has some development to make, this is way early in the game. Maybe another bubble next year my prediction: 5T marketcap 2019, 20T 2020... And we could go higher and higher as time rolls on.