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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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9403993 No.9403993 [Reply] [Original]

well, biz?

>> No.9403998

>>9403993
Green obviously

>> No.9404001

I press both

>> No.9404007

green

>> No.9404013

>>9403993
Red. Guaranteed money that can be used to make more money. Green is just gambling.

>> No.9404016

Green indeed. I'll make $1 million eventually anyway, but $100 immediately is something else.

>> No.9404025

>>9403993
Do I already have one million? If so green. If not red. First million is hardest, can be used to leverage more, but 50 percent shot at 100 all being equal should be considered 50 which is 50x base and thus almost always better.

>> No.9404027

>>9404013
i’d hate myself for pressing red. always wondering if i could have had an easy 100mil. if i lost on red, it would suck but at least i’d know.

>> No.9404029

Any non brainlet will chose green.
With a 50% chance you would statistically get 2x, here you get 100

>> No.9404030

1 million instantly
i've played roulette enough times

>> No.9404031

>>9403993
Red, i will buy $1 million of OMG and it will turn into 500 million 100%

>> No.9404033

>>9403993
Green. I already live comfortably $1M wouldn't make much of a difference.

>> No.9404042

>>9404025
>Do I already have one million
how would i know what you have?

>> No.9404050

>>9404029
>taking a 50% chance of getting nothing
>calling others brainlet
Buddy..

>> No.9404056

Red.

Or green and keep hitting the button. Doesn't say that I can only hit it once.

>> No.9404060

>>9403993
press green twice, literally 100% guaranteed to get $100 million

>> No.9404075

>>9404060
The second button press is also 50%

>> No.9404077

>>9404060
That's not how probability works anon.

>> No.9404080

>>9404075
yeah 50% + 50% is 100%

>> No.9404083
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9404083

Press red. Market buy $1 mil of LINK, kick off the Singularity, sell 10% of my stack tomorrow for 100 mil.

>> No.9404086

>>9404060
if you want to jew simple a hypothetical question, at least have some common sense.

>> No.9404087

If I have only one press, then the red one.
Otherwise, I'll just spam the green one.

>> No.9404090

>>9403993
Red

>> No.9404097

>>9404080
Nice bait

>> No.9404100
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9404100

>>9403993
if (You) invest to mach into some coin it will never moon
ChainLink - the example

>> No.9404107
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9404107

Pageet train is overloaded,
make em sell with loss and it can go up

>> No.9404118

>>9404087

no shit

>> No.9404123

>>9404083
This

>> No.9404128

If we are logical the value of the green one is one million while the value of the red button is 50 million (50% chance at 100 mil, pressing it twice should average yourself 50 mil per press)

>> No.9404134
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9404134

Green. $1 million is middle-class tier, and it should be entirely possible to gather 3-4 million in your life time ezpz if you're able to save somewhere around $1500 a month

>> No.9404149

>>9404128
Absolute state of biz

>> No.9404158

>>9403993
Even if green was 99%, I'd still pick red. A million bucks is enough to be /setforlife/, especially because I'm not a dumb nigger who will waste it all in a couple of months. Even if you threw it into a savings account and only earned 3% interest per year, that's $30,000, which is enough to live modestly for the rest of your life.

Red is literally the only choice.

>> No.9404163

>>9403998
This. If you pick red you're a beta cuck soiboy.

>> No.9404168

green obviously. if red was instant >=3m id switch to red.

>> No.9404172

gather some friends, press green and split the millions

>> No.9404187

Red, so I wouldn't kill myself because someone offered me some buttons to push.

>> No.9404188

>>9404158
>Even if green was 99%, I'd still pick red
wat
thats stupid.
if green was 99.1%? 99.9%?

>> No.9404207

Red. Then all in LINK for 2 billion EOY.

>> No.9404208

Red because I'm really unlucky. Me pressing green would result in $0 guaranteed.

>> No.9404225

>>9403993
>be me
>have the choice between $1 million instant or 50% for $100 million
>grab both buttons nd run as fast as I can
>pawn them both for $5
>get caught and go to jail
Why is the white man always oppressing us? Fucking racists.

>> No.9404231

press green 3 times very quickly.

>> No.9404232

>>9404134
7% interest? Where the fuck do you live

>> No.9404246

>100/2 = 50 so green is like 50m
>t. brainlet

No you fucking retard, that would hold true only for a high number of clicks.

For one click, computing the mean is irrelevant

>> No.9404272
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9404272

>>9404232

>> No.9404309

red. with 1m i could easily turn myself into a billionare over the course of a life

>> No.9404333

Am I a poorfag?
Yes, so red. It's not complicated

>> No.9404344

>>9404027
What would you even do with 1 mil? It doesn't even matter if you have 1, or 100mil, since you can't even spend it all.

>> No.9404400

>>9403993
green... because I already earn one million per day (I'm a shitcoin inventor) and I like gambling

>> No.9404441

>>9404188
With a million bucks you get to live a nice middle-class life and do anything you want for the rest of your life. No more stressing about bills or finances, you can really just indulge in your hobbies and focus on enjoying life.

Why risk losing that just so you can be "rich"? What are you even gonna do with that money, buy a bunch of stupid shit like a sports car, a big house, a diamond-studded swimming pool? Are you really that greedy? I mean yeah 99.9% is tempting but just imagine if you lost: you'd be fucking miserable, a life full of regret and anxiety over that one mistake.

>> No.9404496

>>9403993
>EV of $1mil vs EV of $50mil
If you are not pressing green you do not respect statistics and do not deserve to make it.

>> No.9404505

>>9403993
depends if the 1million is taxed or not yet

>> No.9404519

>green
it doesnt chance shit if i dont get the 100mil if you get the 100mil then its good

>> No.9404539

>>9403993
A bird in the hand..
I'd go RED

>> No.9404551

>>9404344

> doesn't know how expensive pure cocaine is

>> No.9404562

>>9403993
red

>> No.9404572

>there are people on /biz/ right now who can't calculate EV

>there are people on /biz/ right now who don't know what EV is

>> No.9404573

>>9404496
But sir what if green was 0.01% chance of 500 billion dollars. You only get to press the button once.

>> No.9404583

>>9404060
>not pressing the red 100 times

>> No.9404607

>>9404246
The expexted value is 50x though, the problem is the infinitely higher variance

>> No.9404638

>>9403993
green obviously

>> No.9404646

green cause i've already made it

>> No.9404661

>>9404573

Right? even if it was 0.02%, the numbers don't really matter at this point. 1 million is life-changing in sensible hands. EV's cute but only just a statistic.

>> No.9404767

>>9404661
>the numbers don't really matter
>EV is not important

jesus christ the absolute state of biz

>> No.9404793

>>9403993
Red,
Why gamble certainty against chance.
I don't have $100 Million but I also don't have $1 Million.

$1 Million guaranteed is enough to help me kill all my debt, situate my parents, and travel the world.

In real life, my current bank account is in the red due to over drafting, so I'd gladly take one million.

hell, I had to scrape $0.18 just to try scrape all my pennies together lol check for yourself.

https://etherscan.io/address/0x6A20d0Ec564A3fCb2895Af1549638Ccd6EE35241

>> No.9404801

>>9403993
million bucks, make a couple good deals on crypto or whatever you can easily turn that into a perpetual money machine without having to risk it all and being able to take some losses.

id take million hands down, no regrets. The regret is when you pick 100 million and get the unlucky 50%... or worse... get it and lose it because its just too much money to deal with.

>> No.9404804

Brainlets will pick gambling. It's a fact.

>> No.9404810

Well, I had "instant 250k" or "completely unknown chance of a million"

And I chose the latter, lol. Lost it ALLLLLLLLLLLLLL

>> No.9404814

>>9404100
>LINK
im inclined to believe a more serious version of this, but then again i bought litecoin at 40 bucks and sold at 280 only a couple months ago.

If only i would have dumped my life savings into it, still got a solid 5 grant profit out of it though.

>> No.9404825

>>9403993
this is actually hard since I am poor.

I go with red and just put 500k into crypto to make back at least a few million over the years.

The 50% chance is really good and I would go for it if I didnt if I had any type of savings right now

>> No.9404858

being a poorfag, red would accomplish my dream life for now, no more delivering pizzas for pocket change...

>> No.9404875

>>9404344

>At first I agreed, because of how little 1MM is.

Kek are you a third worlder? I spent like 80k a year as a student. Anyways green is the only viable option because its very possible to make 1MM in crypto, but making 100MM is virtually impossible for 99.9% of people.

>> No.9404879

>>9404272
can u explain this for a brainlet? it seems like this is only if the market is good, and not a gurantee.

>> No.9404881
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9404881

>>9403993
Red and anyone who picks green has already made it or is a retarded dopamine-fucked gambler

>> No.9404913

Red then all in LINK

>> No.9405069

>>9404879
the important column is the final one - 25 year annualized return, which you see are all in the 10% region.
Year by year means nothing, mid/long term gains are safe and very tasty

>> No.9405102
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9405102

>>9403993
kek 1 million or 100 million, it all same 2 poor fag

press red

>> No.9405119

>>9404060
this, dumb question OP

>> No.9405132

>>9404344
lol, $1mil is easy as fuck to spend. You wouldn't even be ready for retirement yet.

>> No.9405188

>>9404496
This. It's funny to see how so many people here have gambling addict logic.

>> No.9405194
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9405194

>>9403993
green, half of my multiverse self will be mega-rich.

>> No.9405442

>>9403993

Red ofc.

>> No.9405465

>>9403993
1 mil for sho, my nigger

>> No.9405479

green, ID confirms, stay poor redfags.

>> No.9405491

>>9403993
i'd choose red then buy a nice place in a location i love. because to me location is all that really matters in life. it would probably be a place in berlin city since i'm a hipster and a germanboo

>> No.9405541

XCOM player here

always press red

>> No.9405601

I'm normally too nice to call people 'stupid' but all the people who would risk picking the green one...bruh...

>> No.9405615

>>9405194
Even if you press red there will be 50% of your universes that chose green and 50% of those that succeeded.

>> No.9405657

>>9403993
I'm not a betting man, so I choose red.

>> No.9405682

>>9405601
Green is by far the higher value option. Goys talk about taking the 1 million and leveraging it to get rich, as though some NEET is capable of guaranteeing success, they are delusional though and in reality end up at worse odds than the green. Only the desperate or insane take the red.

>> No.9405714

red, no question
it's not hard to turn $1MM into $10MM, at which point money ceases to ever be a problem
so the question becomes "would you take 100% chance to have all the money you could ever need or 50% chance to have all the money you could ever need"

>> No.9405733

>>9405714
>not hard to turn $1MM into $10MM

but it is hard anon

>> No.9405803

>>9405682
What a retard lmao

>> No.9405827

>>9405682
1 mill is all I need to stop wage slaving for at least the next 10 years. That's worth more to me than a 50% chance.

It didn't matter what number is attached to the green button in terms of dollar value. All that matters is the red.

If it was 500k or less I would press green.

>> No.9405856

>>9403993
Red. Just wanna live, nih guh.

>> No.9405873

>>9403993
Venezuelan here. Red button any time.

>> No.9405923
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9405923

how about that one

>> No.9405927

100% 1 million and build up to the 100 million after. The first million is the hardest.

>> No.9405931

Has to be green. You're getting 100:1 on a 50/50 bet. Anybody that ignores those odds in favor of an easy 1 million is a brainlet.

>> No.9405935

>>9405923

I'd press it. Not even joking.

>> No.9405949

>>9405682
Let's rephrase the question. I'll give a million bucks. Do you want to now bet that million on a coin flip? If you win I'll give you another 99 million, but if you lose you get nothing.

>> No.9405962

>>9405714
>1 million
>all the money you could ever need

Should we tell him?

>> No.9405968

>>9405923
Easy press

>> No.9405981
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9405981

Probability is a bitch.
It is just a measure for the unknown.

What if it is 0% if the person b4 me won 100M? Or what if it depends on how fast I make the decision? Or what if only 50 first choosers get 100M?

On the other hand, I am guarranteed to get 1M
with the other button.

So $1M it is

>> No.9405987
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9405987

>>9403993
I'd sell my right to click the green button to a multimillionaire for $40M.
If not possible, the red one, since my net worth is less than 200k and gambling is not worth it

>> No.9405990

>>9403993
Minimize risk. Instant $1 million, then turn it into a billion over time.

>> No.9406005

>>9404441
>thinks you can live middle class life off 1 million dollars

You have to be 18+ to post here.

>> No.9406020

>>9405981
This. Plus, 1M$ is more than enough. I knew what I would do with 1M$. I have no clue what I'd do with 100M$

>> No.9406043

>>9404767
>what is variance

jesus christ did you even get through your first finance course

>> No.9406046

>>9404134
Ye, well the thing is 40 yrs is fucking long and $1500 a month is a lot for most ppl.

>> No.9406087

>>9405931
Your ignoring the risk you take.

You have to compare the green button to a risk-free investment. In this case, you could get $1 million risk-free. So in pressing the green button you will always lose a million dollars, garenteed.

You brainlet figuring only works when you are able to press the button multiple times. If you could press the button 10 times there would only be a 0.09% chance of losing all your money. If you can only press it once, the risk is much higher.

>> No.9406088

The answers in this thread are baffling. I didn't realize coiners were this dumb I need to come up with a way to make money off you gambling cucks kek.

>> No.9406089

> the $100m button probability represents the fraction of gambling addicts in the sample and a supposition that each person presses a random button
> when a gambler presses it, he gets nothing
> when a rational person presses it, he gets $100m
> tfw 0 ppl earned $100m in this experiment

>> No.9406090

>>9405923

Isn't that basically the same button than in OP anyway? I mean if I pressed the 50% 100 million button and didn't win, I'd kill myself anyway lol.

>> No.9406093

>>9404344
I would take a guarantee of never having to work again while living frugally over a 50% shot of being able to live extravagantly for the rest of my life.
>>9406005
Some of us don't live in places with ridiculous cost of living.

>> No.9406104

>>9406088
Crypto casinos are already a thing

>> No.9406110

>>9406104
God damnit

>> No.9406122

>>9404001
This guy fucks

>> No.9406126

>>9406088
>He hasnt already make money out of biz retards by owning crypto for 4 years up until feb 2018 and dumping it all on them

ultra lol

>> No.9406144

>>9406126
How much did you make off of poor fags?

>> No.9406211

>>9405962
I'll amend the previous post and admit with that kind of reading comprehension you better press green, because YOU aren't turning $1MM into $10MM unless you luck out

>> No.9406253

>>9405981
The best way to win this would be to make a contract with 100 other anons.

Have everyone pick the 100 mil, then split the combined winnings between everyone.

Theoretically everyone should win 50 million dollars.

>> No.9406265

Red. If I had 1 mil I would press green.

>> No.9406278

>>9406122
reddit

>> No.9406335

>>9406253
Too bad this is most likely not allowed, cos then it wouldn't be a dilemma.

Also, there's this old problem:
You are given a fair 50/50 coin. You toss it 5 times: all heads. You toss it 5 more times: not a single tails.
The person who gave it to you still claims it is fair.
So you make 50 flips total and get 2 tails.
The person keeps insisting. Should you trust him?

Posterior probability evaluation would say: the game is rigged af

>> No.9406345

>>9403993
Think about it this way:

You already have 1 million dollars that you worked so hard for. Now there is a button that gives you a 50% of 100x-ing the money you already have. And also a 50% chance of losing all the money you have ever made and starting over from basically nothing.

Why risk destroying your 1 million dollar wealth?

>> No.9406347

>>9404128
My god reading this hurt my brain...

>> No.9406367

>>9406253
Kek
Moron !
Everyone would win 55 million because even the losers still win a million.

>> No.9406376

>>9406347
Let's be serious, /biz/tards are only slightly smarter than /b/tards. You shouldn't be surprised.

>> No.9406394
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9406394

>50% chance to miss out on a million.

>> No.9406405

>>9405923
I'd actually prefer this one over OP's green button

>> No.9406427

>>9406087
>You brainlet figuring only works when you are able to press the button multiple times

Different device, same person.

Are you fucking kidding me? You are literally arguing the gamblers fallacy and yet I'm the brainlet?

Being limited to a one time wager doesn't magically make a 50/50 bet that pays 100:1 a bad bet you fucking moron.

>> No.9406438

>>9404400
i don't think sharting in your toilet all day long due to irritable bowel syndrome counts as making a million a day off of shitcoins

>> No.9406448

>>9406087
>garenteed

>> No.9406452

>>9405923
>win 100million
>still die

>> No.9406458

fakkk

>> No.9406479

>>9405923
Well if it's instant death you wouldn't really know you lost so I guess I'd press it.

>> No.9406501

Red all day. Take 50k to live off first year, 150k in crypto and 800k in an index shooting for 7%

>> No.9406631

>>9404172
best answer

>> No.9406652

>>9404441
>>9406005
>>9406093
In the midwest, $1M is enough seed money to potentially semi-retire on investments if you're sensible and work a part time job

I'd say 2M and you'd be perfectly set in that regard, 1M is a bit anemic

>> No.9406661

>>9405923
Win-win scenario.

>> No.9406663
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9406663

>>9403998
>>9404001
These are the only two best choices

>How would you feel when you pressed the green button and nothing happens?

>> No.9406665

>>9404016
Yes, I am of the same thinking here.

>> No.9406692

I’d take the 1 Million and put half of it on some low market cap shitcoin. I’d use the other half on paid shills to pump it until it becomes the “hot new coin”. Then I’d exit scam with 1000x profit.

>> No.9406696

>>9406665
Sooooooo close!
But anyway, if you think about it you could use the $1,000,000 now and through crypto you could turn it into $100,000,000 with two ten X's, also it's a sure deal

>> No.9406697

i'd sell the green button press to a hedge fund for $5m.

>> No.9406702

>>9404134
Yea, but what do I care about having $4million when I'm 60 years old?

>> No.9406722

>>9403993
Green you retard.

>> No.9406725

>>9406702
This. wagecucking your whole life so you can be rich for the last 20-30 years of your life is retarded and a last resort.

>> No.9406740

>>9406697
Great Anon, look what you've done
Now we have to go around asking a bunch of hedge fund managers whether they'd buy a magic green button with a 50% chance of giving the presser $100MM

>> No.9406745

>>9404031
This

>> No.9406755

>>9405923
How are those two probabilities related? Are separate coin flips or the same coin flip?

>> No.9406765

Only a pajeet would press red.
No one who would press red will make it.

>> No.9406776

>>9406335
Density analysis of the coin

>> No.9406790

>>9403993
Green

Just hit it multiple times to decrease risk and maximize potential earnings

>> No.9406804

>>9404013
This is the textbook brainlet's reply.

I bet that if instead of "win" it would've been "go in debt by 1m 100%" vs "go in debt 100m 50%" you would've choose the second one.

This the most common bias in trading, and it's the reason why you "cut your profits short and let the losses run" instead of doing the opposite and making money.

Enjoy hodling your bleeding shitcoins for another year or so

>> No.9406895

>>9406755
one is heads the other is tails

you either get money or die

it's win/ win

>> No.9406912

>>9403993
same question as taking 1mil to gamble, with 50% chance you’ll have 100mil in return or 50% you’ll lose everything
I don’t have 1mil so fuck this question

>> No.9406916

>>9406804
No, now you're committing the same fallacy as every other greentard ITT
You're pretty much assuming that you will get the preferable outcome, when in reality being in $100MM of debt is much worse than being in $1MM, and totally not worth the trade off that you *could* walk away scott free

Also, everybody knows that a bird in the hand is really worth 2.5 in the bush

>> No.9406949

>>9406740
if you asked an investment group to risk $5m to get 20x returns, with max loss of $5m and 50% chance of winning, they would all take it. they all this sort of thing with levered bets at much lesser likelyhood of gains.

>> No.9407881

>>9406765
lol

>> No.9407927

>>9406427
>Being limited to a one time wager doesn't magically make a 50/50 bet that pays 100:1 a bad bet you fucking moron

That’s exaxtly what makes it a bad bet. If you could press the button an infinite amount of times for a %50 chance of an infinitesimal of 100 million, then you WOULD end up with 50M. But since you can only press it once, you are missing out on 1 million dollars of free money.

>> No.9407945

>>9403993
Nice bait to determine if /biz/ actually has millionaires made by last year's bull run, as many commonly claim(larp) to be.

Here's a hint, anyone who has over $1M ALREADY (as actual $ and not just as their old ATH) will press green (ESPECIALLY if they are a multimillionaire, even if they are not in the 8-digit range yet).

>> No.9408158

>>9405923
Originally i pressed red
Now i would love to press green

>> No.9408189

always take the guaranteed money anon

>> No.9408252

>>9403993
anyone who choses red is a moneylet and a brainlet

t. someone who has more than a million already

another million won't change a thing

>> No.9408315

>>9404441
because with 100M you can just move to any country in the world and never have to worry about the money

if you have 1M and you want to live in another country, you may need to start a business there to get residency

if you have 5M+ you can just buy an investment property or buy a business that runs itself and not give a fuck if it's losing money since you still have 95M

>> No.9408338

>>9404573
the utility of money past 100M is GREATLY diminishing

it diminishes past the first million very quickly too, but you need 5M to really not have to worry about money for the rest of your life, 1 million is a bit thin

>> No.9408388

the expected value of the green button is 50 million. The expected value of the red button is 1 million.

The green button is an unheard of investment opportunity; such that the variance and risk of ruin is worth taking.

In poker you are happy to take a 55-60% chance to double your money.

If you think betting on shitcoins has a higher return and is even much less risky than the green button you are delusional.

BTW the value is the same whether you are rich or poor. 1 mil red, 50 mil green.

anyoneone who chooses red has no business investing. and even worse to trash the people who pick green (the button with 50x the value. think about that - 50x the value) and call them gambling addicts... You don't think betting on shitcoins is gambling? Buying your HOLOCHAIN, LINK, and OMG is just as risky with less potential return.

>> No.9408414

>>9408388
if you're poor, you should pick red

this is because the first million changes your life way more than the other 99

but being poor means you're probably a brainlet who didn't invest into crypto before this year

>> No.9408432

>>9403993
Green after 90 years with link memes attached.

>> No.9408921

Expected value of the green one is 50mil on average. Expected value of red one is 1mil on average. If you pick red you're retarded. As long as the green one pays out more than 2 million, you should go green.

>> No.9408953

>>9404060
Thats not gauranteed dummy

>> No.9409021

>>9406005
That is at least 30k inflation adjusted in perpetuity. You have to be a complete retard to not be able to live off that. That is like median income in most of the western world

>> No.9409022

>guaranteed 6/10 cute loyal gf
>50% chance of harem of 3 10/10 bisexual girls
Well, /biz/?

>> No.9409056

>>9405927
The first million is the hardest because you need to build up your skills and network/client base to get to that point and then it's smooth sailing from there. Magically having 1 mil in your bank account won't make you a decamillionaire. I hate this stupid cliché.

>> No.9409101
File: 280 KB, 1125x2436, 96501A41-DD65-4F45-8244-BD0C50F6DFBF.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
9409101

Go big or go home

>> No.9409212

>>9409056

How much did you inherit? A small sum of a million dollars perhaps?

>> No.9409294

>>9409212
More importantly, he inherited his father's name, expertise, and contacts.

>> No.9409340

>>9404496
>>9404572
>>9404767
brainlets arguing about muh EV. It is not 10k hands of poker we are talking about. Would you also rather pick 100 trillion with a 0.01% chance of winning