>not a bubble :^)

[Anonymous No.866678]

ITT: we post our faces when S&P500 hits 1000

[Anonymous No.866695]

>>866678

B-but this time its different, anonn..

[Anonymous No.866752]

0% Bubble
QE Bubble
Obongo Bubble
Fag Rights Bubble

Take your pick

[Anonymous No.866759]

>>866752
Don't forget the woman's rights bubble

[Anonymous No.866762]

>>866678
Derivatives bubble incoming. The mother off all bubbles.

[Anonymous No.866795]

Of course not. It's another credit bubble based around a phony recovery built upon a economy that is terminally ill. A highly manipulated market based around buybacks designed to fleece the ignorant saps who bought into it, it will only get worse, oh those poor fools who bought the logic that somehow bonds are safe investments unlike stocks:

"“There’s been worrying deterioration in the overall global demand picture with the continuation of EM (Emerging Markets) FX (Currency Markets) onslaught, deterioration in credit metrics with rising leverage in the US as well as outflows in credit funds in conjunction with significant widening in credit spreads…..The goldilocks period of “low rates volatility-stable carry trade environment of the last couple of years is likely coming to an end.”"

[Anonymous No.866827]

you have no idea what a bubble means.
where's the irrational buying?

[Anonymous No.866834]

>>866827


>>865559

[Anonymous No.866846]

>>866678

My wallet is ready

[Anonymous No.866852]

>>866834

falling oil is not due to a bubble, it's due to increased supply brought on by increases in oil production technology

[Anonymous No.866863]

>>866852
>it's due to increased supply

Or decreased demand.

[Anonymous No.866868]

>>866863

Have you done any research into this? There's a HUGE oil glut right now because both OPEC and the US are producing at record breaking numbers

eat shit you uninformed scum

[Anonymous No.866877]

>>866863
>>866868
youre both right,
China (one of the largest consumers of commodities on the planet) is slowing down and the demand for crude along with it

Combined with the fact that we are oversupplying this market with crude because you have all these shale operations that need to pay off debt taken on when crude was 100$ a barrel thinking it would only go up from there once China and India further industrialized. Which is partly why the Saudis continue to pump, because they hope to maintain a large market share when the BRICS develop and then reap the
????
Profit

[Anonymous No.866884]

>>866877

To be fair, the glut has been happening for 10 months now, the china thing just started less than a month ago

[Anonymous No.866890]

>>866877

Also the main reason the saudis are pumping so hard is cause last time this happened in the 80s, they reduced supply and lost a ton of market share

[Anonymous No.866894]

>>866884
China thing started almost a year ago too actually. One of the nails in coal's coffin was the slowdown in China way before a month ago, at least in its consumption of coal (even aside from Chinese carbon emission restrictions)

[Anonymous No.866897]

>>866877
>they hope to maintain a large market share when the BRICS develop

It will be interesting to see. Especially since one of the members of BRIC is known for oil exports.

[Anonymous No.866898]

>>866894

Can you please help me understand why a decrease in coal usage would lead to a decrease in oil usage? Seems like oil requirements would go up as coal use goes down

[Anonymous No.866907]

>not wanting to kill yourself for being to young to take advantage of 2008
>not having your wallets ready for this next crash

Sure I already have a decent amount in to lose but it's all paper losses until I actually sell.

[Anonymous No.866915]

>>866907
>>not wanting to kill yourself for being to young to take advantage of 2008
>>not having your wallets ready for this next crash
I know both these feels. Dw there will be other crashes. One day anon.

[Anonymous No.866921]

>>866898
iirc coal and oil aren't directly related much. I think oil affects nat gas which then affects coal.
But what I meant was that they clearly slowed down on growing (stopped building coal plants for energy [china doesn't really into natural gas] and coal imports for steel also slowed down. You could then just assume that oil importing would also slow down since energy usage across the board was decreased.

This is different from the U.S. Where a decrease in coal automatically leads to the assumption that the plants are switching over to nat gas and not necessarily just not stopping the increase in energy use

[Anonymous No.866938]

>>866907
>tfw wallet is ready
Then again, I do have to sell a bunch first in order to turn a profit on the fall.

[Anonymous No.866942]

[Anonymous No.867136]

pump up the market with fake money it will crash again and they will run out of money

[Anonymous No.867155]

Wouldn't it be a good idea to dump a lot of my money into the market by way of index funds after the freefall slows down?

[Anonymous No.867171]

>>867155
Yes, but when is that time?
Now, since everything is on sale, or maybe in september when the rates hike? Or maybe in december when the good dads sell out for Christmas?

[Anonymous No.867179]

>mfw holding cash only

[Anonymous No.867181]

>>867171
That comes to just setting floors right? Have a point you're ready to buy at and buy, hold if it goes lower and ride it out till it climbs again.

[Anonymous No.867183]

>>866877
this, shale was only barely profitable at over $100 per barrel, which is where the price had been for a long time so they took the risk. Now they're fuck super hard. They need to keep producing to minimize the risk, like everyone else is doing. Shutting down refineries costs a ton of money, but storages are reaching or have reached capacity.

Oil is going to $20 and then we'll see who can keep their heads up.

[Anonymous No.867186]

>>867183
*minimize the loss, not risk

[Anonymous No.868063]

>mfw you realize your losses

[Anonymous No.868086]

>>866827
Facebook P/E - 88.7
Netflix P/E - 233
Tesla P/E - infinity

>where's the irrational buying?

[Anonymous No.868187]

>>868086
It astonishes me when people put money into companies with ridiculous P/Es like that.

>Hmmm... This company is priced at over 100 times what they're actually earning.
>This is okay
>I'm going to buy this

[Anonymous No.868825]

She'll be right m8s

[Anonymous No.868848]

>>868825
b-but Obama raised the economy 3x, w-what o-other president did t-that

[Anonymous No.868853]

>>867179
>>mfw holding cash only

Know feel.

>Tfw losing 2% of your hard-earned dosherdoo every year
>Tfw rapidly falling rate to US dollar is crippling you in the international market

[Pizza Fund Manager !!n1HP3TUF4Ba No.868855]

>>866884
china thing started actually decades ago... but you didn't see the puzzle being put together, which I can't blame you. how the fuck can most people connect a canal with economic turmoil on the other side of the world.

[Pizza Fund Manager !!n1HP3TUF4Ba No.868858]

>>868086
>three stocks
>"dis is uhhrashunal!!!"

[Anonymous No.868861]

>>868853
>Tfw losing 2% of your hard-earned dosherdoo every year
Well, here in Argentina we are losing 28% a year.
No wonder our market is in the shitter.

[Anonymous No.868867]

>>868861
Fug...

I'm guessing you people obviously keep like 90% of your assets in US dollars though, right?

[Anonymous No.868893]

>>866762
Followed by 100K a Bitcoin bubble.

[Anonymous No.868907]

>>868867
>assets
>implying

But yes, most of it.
We use dollars a lot, sometimes Brazilian reais.

[Anonymous No.869014]

>>868825
you have the chart for the same time span for the dow and nasdaq? they look like this too?

[Anonymous No.869029]

>>868907
Even though /pol/ says you guys are not white I still some of you are pretty chill.

I'll never forget my fat Argentinian bro that let me chill in his house playing ps1(or maybe it was 2), eating some bretty good food and drinking punch from his mother's Argentinian wineglass that's really large at the top. Fuck man i'm tearing up a bit

;-;

[Anonymous No.869039]

>>869029
They hate us cuz they ain't us.

Let's drink some yerba mate and eat some chinchulines.

[Anonymous No.869046]

>>869039
>They hate us cuz they ain't us.

nahhhhh

that being said brazilbros are generally cool

[Anonymous No.869061]

>>869039
I would m8.

Idk there's just something about niggas from other countries that are so much easier to chill with than North American cuckolds... Maybe I don't belong here

[Anonymous No.869064]

>>868825
>>868848
>value is never created
>too retarded to realize the prices of stocks inflate like any other good
>assuming people will be happy making 0-2% nominal return on their money in precious metals and US Treasurys
>hurr look at my chart

I bet you're the type of retards who talk about how they wished they bought in '09 because it was so easy back then.

[Anonymous No.869066]

Student loan and and bloated Education bubble.

[Anonymous No.869086]

>>868855
The panama canal? What do you mean? Ausbro here idk shit about your canal.

[Anonymous No.869105]

>>866762
Exactly .. . Hard times coming . Guess i m gonna leave to an island and start fishing and hunting

Fyi germany is sitting on 50.000 billion worth of derivative

[Anonymous No.869117]

>>866762
>Google derivatives bubble
>it's all conspiracy and doommongering sites

[Anonymous No.869142]

>>868861

Kek, and no wonder your government keeps trying to stir shit about the Falklands.

[Anonymous No.870563]

>>868187
exactly my though people need to look at price to earning to really gauge what a company is worth, not the fucking ticker price.

[Anonymous No.871048]

>>869117
>forbes
>conspiracy and doommongering site

[Anonymous No.871615]

I reckon the Arabs are pumping because they know the timeline of oil being worth anything significant is limited. Making their money now before its only useful for plastic

[Anonymous No.871620]

>>869117

Whatever you say, pal.

[Anonymous No.871637]

>>871620

This made me laugh out loud

[Anonymous No.871647]

>>866678
So.. what do we do? I'm getting into VIXY and VXX, just to diversify my VIX exposure (really, in case one of the issuing banks get fucked and decide to leave with my money), but other than that, what do?

Can't buy bear X15 certificates just yet, that needs to be about two days before the actual event, or during it (if you can even buy them then). The VIX tracking ETFs would turn €1k into like €50k (each) if you bought now and it just reached a 2012 volatility-level, so that's my main ticket, setting an exit at that previous high and waiting for the -666 fall of September. But I have another €1k to place somewhere, and I really don't want to go with X15 bear since any back-move fucks you so badly you wish you never knew what money was in the first place (granted - it's only €1k).

[Anonymous No.871653]

>>871647
Don't go into VXX, TVIX is much better at tracking VIX.

[Anonymous No.871661]

>>871647
I didn't really understand your post but the VIX now has a ton of downside, not that it couldn't go up further or will drop instantly.
I'm just saying it has A LOT of downside now

[Anonymous No.871665]

>>868086
it's not irrational if they continue to deliver

[Anonymous No.871672]

>>871661
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true}

check out the 2yr and you'll get some perspective into what you're just now going long on

[Anonymous No.871686]

>>871653
How's VIXY? I might consider replacing VXX with TVIX, since VIXY and VXX are basically identical (VXX is a bit too expensive right now, too).

What would you propse for the third leg, so to speak. Basically, I'm putting €1k into each of these when it seems alright, within the next two weeks, and then I wait, selling with any spike at historical resistance. Two are basically just trying to track the VIX, the third would be something that inverts the S&P 500, but for example Bear X15 is far too extreme for anything but perfect timing (which I'm unlikely to have).

>>871661
VIXY is at $16.43 right now. I'm waiting for it to drop a bit. Back in October of 2011, it reached over $600. TVIX is $12.42 right now, back in both august and october of 2013, it reached over $200. If you expect something drastic to happen in september, it wouldn't be a bad time to buy now from what I can see. Historically, they haven't been much lower. Worst I could do is lose 1/3 of my total of €2k to them each, but that's at least more exciting than having negative fucking interest at the bank. Best I could do is $37.5k and $16.6k, assuming I just set the goals and forget about it.

I've never done VIX before though (no reason to), so do tell me whatever you know. It's the only real plan I have, though. Margin trading in this market is way too dangerous, so I'll be doing that very carefully once it starts to really obviously drop. These are more to go from pleb to my own (rented) apartment with two lottery tickets. If it doesn't work out, I just leave it in until it does move.

[Anonymous No.871694]

>>871615
>7 hours since last post.
>pol pls

[Anonymous No.871705]

>>871686
well most ETN's, especially VIX ETN's have all sorts of crazy stock splits because of contango on VIX futures, so looking at historic highs isn't an accurate way to determine upside.

The VIX was only around 40 in 2008, so at most you're probably looking at an upside of maybe double.
And if things cool down you're looking at more of a 2/3 loss

[Anonymous No.871711]

>>871705
plus any long term investment in VIX ETN's is gonna have a significant risk free decay because of contango on VIX futures

[Anonymous No.871717]

>>871665
Their growth isn't big enough, at some point they'll have a bad quarter and there will be panic selling by all of the people who invest blindly.

[Anonymous No.871745]

>>871705
Where does one multiply ones money in the case of a crash, then? My first plan was just to enter margin trades at appropriate pull-back points, but that's fairly risky, and I'd prefer to find something with more limited risk as well.

[Anonymous No.871746]

>>871686
hahahahaahahahha are you a troll?

do you understand etfs

o m g

do not do this

[Anonymous No.871751]

>>871746
I've only margin traded, you basically see exactly what you get. It's why I'm asking about it. Do suggest the proper way to do it.

[Anonymous No.871754]

>>871745
the only way to "multiply" your money would be through options or significant leverage

[Anonymous No.871773]

>>871754
Well shit. I'll have to just keep to the margin trading account, then. Forex, indices and so on work fine to turn out the kind of returns I figured the VIX could give me in the case of a large, sudden market move. Only downside is that you have to watch it like a hawk for any sudden retracement (or be lucky with timing). The most annoying thing is, many say that you can get rich from a crash, but nobody says how.

[Anonymous No.871824]

>>871754
>>871773
Same as every time. I'll take your word on that it works differently from what I expected, but really. What does one do?

I'll short the SPX once it does start to really drop, on margin. But I'd like something else as well. Mini-futures? There's about a million of them, and they're all named various shit so that you can't actually tell what they do. Fuck stock market shit, man. I'm keeping to forex/indices on margin. This shit is too deceptive.

[Anonymous No.871828]

>>871824
If you're so sure we're gonna collapse buy puts

[Anonymous No.871861]

>>871828
I can't even buy american puts in my country. I looked. There are mini-futures, but again, it doesn't even really say what they are. I'd like to put €1k on S&P 500 going down in mid-september, potentially go sideways or slightly negative if nothing much happens, or potentially massively plus if something does happen. I expect it to either range, or go down, basically. I don't think it's going to go much higher, after it rallies slightly from the current bull trap. A few percent, maybe.

What would happen if one bought VIXY/TVIX at ~$10-12 a share (if possible)? Would it really not increase more than say 100% from a sudden market drop? This is what I mean with deceptive. With margin trading, if it drops x amount of points, it has dropped a certain value. No hidden calculations, no smug frogs pulling out their array of greeks to prove why you're a moron. Just pure up, or down, in real values.

I'll wait for it to drop, pull back a bit, and short. If it goes wrong, I'll have lost 5% of my account, if it goes right, I can pile on at the next lower high, and so on. Just your regular index (or forex, since I find that far more predictable) trade. I don't need to make $1k into $35k, but I do want to make it into $10k, and I know that I can do it purely on technical trading.

Blog over, anyway. I know I'm a moron, trusting any of the info provided even for a minute. Why have a graph in the first place, if it's grossly inaccurate and in no way reflect historically revelant levels? It's as if I had a sign saying "Apples, $1 each" but when you try to buy one, I go "Oh no, it was in 1913 dollars, that'll be $134".

[Anonymous No.871877]

IMO this is the Internet 2.0 bubble more along the lines of Mobile/App/"Social"

A lot of angel investing tied up in that shit, many companies aren't providing returns, someone has to suffer. Pets.com went from being very valuable to being worthless within two years.

Not saying Twitter or Facebook is going to have that same fate, but I can see at least two or three of the big "internet" companies going out of business next time around.

[Anonymous No.871890]

>>871861
Option premium is waaaay overpriced right now. I mean option premium in general is overpriced, but with volatility being where it is, it has pumped the price of options up to a ridiculous level.

If you're bearish in this market, your best bet is selling calls, not buying puts.

Collecting premium is always better than paying for it.

[Anonymous No.871912]

>>871890
I'll just say fuck it to this "trading" bullshit, and stick to swing-trading (margin trading). I assumed a former value of $200, for example, reflected an actual level that could be achieved, and not just fluff made up by fewer shares being worth more or some bullshit. With margin trading of forex/indices, a former level of $200 vs a current level of $12 would be just that, the potential to reach the top level again. Like with oil, dropping from ~120 to whatever it's at, you could've shorted all the way down there and made hundreds if not thousands of percent, just joining in with increasingly large positions, covering them with half-position closes and then going on like that.

Its what I intended to do, but then I read some fag on /biz/ (of course), saying hurr something $1k downside (i.e. instrument becomes worthless), $25k upside (it does go the right way), so I tried to figure out what that was, because the newbie phase in forex is brutal and will take a good while, so an easier passive bet on a direction felt like an alright deal.

I'm not going to bother selling calls, or even figuring out how to. If you don't know what you're doing, don't do it. Lovely, clean forex charts are for me. Easy, controllable leverage, and crystal clear risk/reward.

>blog over, he said
I'm just mad that I didn't figure out a way past the slow incremental grind of growing this little shit of a margin account into something, while keeping your money and sanity.

[Anonymous No.871949]

>>871751

The ETFs and ETNs that track the ^VIX index like VXX and VIXY are notoriously bad. But TVIX is far, far worse. It tries to double the daily percentage move. All leveraged ETFs decay over time.

Here's the index: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^VIX+Interactive#{%22range%22:%222y%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}

Click on comparison and enter "VXX" and "TVIX".

The normal ETFs track their index just fine. SPY, for example, has accurately tracked the S&P 500 for decades.

> I don't need to make $1k into $35k, but I do want to make it into $10k, and I know that I can do it purely on technical trading.

I didn't realize 10 baggers were so easy to come by in forex.

[Anonymous No.872024]

>>871949
>I didn't realize 10 baggers were so easy to come by in forex.
They are, sort of. If you have a small account. The reason people go "b-but you can't do that" is because they're comparing a $1-10k account leveraged 1:500, with an institutional-sized account, which literally eats the market supply/demand if it gets in and out too fast. You're just a

You can make 10-20% a trade. If it goes wrong, hedge it with itself (effectively closing it out at the current level), wait for a return to previous level or close the winning side when it retraces a bit, then close the losing side. Break-even, maybe even win. Not fool-proof, but if you've got the stomach for it, it works.

Ideal risk is far lower, but with such a shitty account you have to gamble a bit to make headway. As long as you survive that initial period, it's ok. Risk is very easy to control with that kind of trading.

(I've forgotten to post this about three times now, by the way - time to sleep)

[Anonymous No.872026]

>>872024
* you're just an insect on the surface of the water, waiting for a fish to make a wave that you can ride. Sometimes, it eats you instead, but that's life.

[Anonymous No.872034]

>>872024
>They are

Stick with forex, if they're so easy, then. I've never had a 10x in 15 years in the stock market. I did watch a 20x once, though. It was a penny stock, back when I was dumb enough to play around with those things. It went up 20x in 45 days. I only held it for 2 of those days and made 80% (on something like $500 - I was in college.) 45 days after the peak the company was bankrupt and the shares had stopped trading.

[Anonymous No.872067]

>>872034
No, it's not "easy" - no trading is. But it's very technical, and leverage is what you'd probably call 'monstrous'. However, I have to say after today, it's not "fucked up" leverage, like leveraged ETFs. It's margin leverage, so you're just trading with more money than you actually have. Nothing is oddly multiplied and re-calculated any point.

You always know where you are, how much you gain, how much you lose, and it usually behaves as price action would have you expect it to. If you run a trade until it covers itself enough, you can open a second position, and now you've got two highly leveraged positions open, where if one fails, it's already more than covered. You can open two half-position trades, to completely cover both in case your longer position fails, and so on.

You don't buy and hold, or you're fucked. You get in, and out. It's all statistical probability, gauged through visuals. I need to sleep, so I'll be leaving. But I'll check in tomorrow, if you do reply.

Oh, and if you do trade according to regularly recommended risk rules, you're still making 1%+ a trade. That's if you're trading with positions the size of which lets you lose like 14 of them in a row, and still recover.

[Anonymous No.872084]

>>866877
>>866884
>>867183
The oil price is about USA v Russia. It's manipulated. Look at glut versus demand. What suddenly changed in August 2014? Your fundamentals were year in the making. It's naked. MH 17 is why oil is killing the Russian economy.

Now Shill me, Slavshits. It's required. Otherwise you don't get your vodka ration.

>SOR
>WE DONT CARE
>199 GAS HELPS USA WHILE U DIE OF CHOLERA AND DYSENTERY

so funny, shill stations.

BZZZZZZ


BZZZZZZ
BZZZZZZ

[Anonymous No.872093]

>>868825
It's a bubble alright, but we don't know WHEN it'll crash.

Some happeningfags say within 2 weeks (>hurdur jews), others say FEDs area holding out until Obama leaves office, so that the crash can be blamed on a white president again rather than a nigger.

[Anonymous No.872607]

>>872084
>Look at glut versus demand.

OK (pic related)

>The oil price is about USA v Russia. It's manipulated.

Manipulated by whom?

[Anonymous No.872890]

>>867171
I'm waiting for early October. Since 1950 the S&P has only had an average decline in two months - August and September.

[Anonymous No.872910]

As long I buy companies with good numbers and real earning I should be fine, right?

[Anonymous No.872990]

>>872607

>check this graph
>not supply vs demand

ok bud

[Anonymous No.873000]

>>872910
Who knows? Honestly, I have zero faith in the market anymore. I think the only reason the latest bubble hasn't burst is because everyone's in a state of mass hypnosis over the economy and the stock market. Stocks are way overvalued. We're only now starting to see a GLIMPSE of their true value. Personally, I'm not sure stocks will ever return to what their actual value is.

[Anonymous No.873494]

>>872607
what am i supposed to take from that chart? at least write some of your own thoughts instead of just posting some shitty chart with no explanation fucking murritards

[Anonymous No.873512]

Why not look at the inflation adjusted charts? Everything is skewed when you look at the normal ones. Dividends matter but looking at the raw chart has value too.

[Anonymous No.873525]

>>873512
still looks fairly shitty. the market moves in waves and we seem to be near the very peak of the current large-scale wave.

[Anonymous No.874600]

>>872910
>Highest high ever
>Should I buy?
No.

[Anonymous No.874607]

>>872910
there is only one company i would buy stocks in right now and even then i only keep like 85% of my money in it and use the rest for day trading and to hold cash with