/oil thread

[Anonymous No.851815]

Oilheads, what oil stocks do you suggest.

Here are my suggestions:
XOM, PTR, BP

[Anonymous No.851818]

>>851815
All in $UWTI. YOLO.

[Anonymous No.851823]

>>851818
WTF, will it reach 0 figures?

[Anonymous No.851826]

>>851823
I don't know, I won't be catching that falling knife soon, but the moment I see a clear bottom, I will all in. I earned about $5000 on a all-in bet on UWTI when it hit $43 last time, so it could work again :D

[Anonymous No.851829]

>>851826
Thx, I'll go in probably in the next 2 weeks. Why the fuck not.

[Anonymous No.851833]

UWTI

Buy in if/when oil hits mid to low thirties.

[Anonymous No.851834]

>>851826
Since you've traded and probably done some analysis. Can you give me some insights considering the risks? With this low, I do not expect losing nearly all, or am I mistaken?

Thanks anon.

[Anonymous No.851835]

>>851815
xco

THAT IS ALL IM GONNA SAY

[Anonymous No.851840]

>>851834
It's a leveraged ETN, so you will lose 3x if oil keeps going down. Invest at the end of the day and pray that oil goes up the next day and sell by lunch time. Sometimes I get 10% easily every day using that strategy. High-frequency robot traders sell at that time too, so the price goes down around ~12:30 PM. Rinse and repeat with the trend of the market. Never hold that ETN for more than a week and set up stop loss you're comfortable with.

[Anonymous No.851845]

>>851840
so it's not suitable for long-term, thanks.

[Anonymous No.851846]

>>851840
ok so lets say I bought one share at $1.16. After a couple of days its drops. Now what? I got the ETF letter saying 3x something like 350,000,000. Does that mean I'll owe that much?! H-help.

[Anonymous No.851854]

>>851846
No, the price goes down depending on the % drop in oil and the price goes up depending on the % rise in oil. So oil went down 2.91% today, 3 x 2.91 = 8.73% which is very close to the current UWTI loss of 8.47%. If Oil went up 4% in a day, you could get 12% gain. Simple enough?

[Anonymous No.851860]

>>851854
Now that you explained it that way, yes it makes sense. I bought 5 shares a couple days ago haven't gained nor have I lost. I think I'll just go ahead cut my losses (which isn't much) and stay out of it. Thanks anon. I guess I have more to learn about stocks than I orginally thought.

[Anonymous No.851962]

>>851815
XLE Jan16 OTM call options.

[Anonymous No.852097]

>>851815
>going long xom
>thinking oil isn't headed towards
20/b

[Anonymous No.852180]

Who /DWTI/ here?

In since $153

[Anonymous No.852223]

>>851835
I can't believe you're shilling those shit heads. Someone will make money off their properties in the Haynesville but not them. No hedges, too. That signals a high dumbass level to me.

That said, 5 years out looks good for NG. Can XCO make it that long?

[Anonymous No.852235]

>>852097
There is a strong probability of oil going to $9. The Saudis engineered that one in 1986. History repeats this time, anon.

[Anonymous No.852853]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-14/oil-s-worst-ever-summer-signals-price-rout-is-nowhere-near-done
>yfw oil sells for < $10 / barrel

[Anonymous No.853285]

>>852180

Got out today at the close for a nice 11% profit. Will probably buy back in if oil tries to recover next week.

[Anonymous No.853293]

>>851818
Don't listen to this op

[Anonymous No.853296]

Not that I have any positions open nor do I plan to, but I must ask -
Why are some in this thread trying to randomly pick a bottom NOW while oil is still on its way down?
Believe me, I know "the trend is your friend, at least until the bend in the end." but I just couldn't imagine going long oil right now. There are no signs of the supply drying up, new wells are being drilled, fuckin Saudis and Persians, and all technical signs seem to be indicating we are still in a bear oil market. Why go long now?

[Anonymous No.853309]

>>853296

>but I just couldn't imagine going long oil right now

Same here, but something has to give at some point. A lot of analysts are calling for much much lower prices but playing /dwti/ just seems too easy to me, lol

[Anonymous No.853491]

>>853296
People like me are making money (for now) being short oil and oil derivatives. Buy strength; sell weakness = oldest commodity trading rule in the book. Look at it this way: When you buy a ticket for a train ride to some destination, do you pay your money, get on board and wait to see which direction it's going to go? No. You have a pretty good idea where it's going when you buy your ticket. So, if you want to profit from oil's ride, you get on board in the direction it's going. When the fucking price goes the other way, you buy a ticket that way. Just do what the market tells you to do. Thousands of other traders are doing the same thing so don't fight that power.

Bottom pickers and top pickers become cotton pickers.

That's Andy Hall , famous oil trader, in the pic. He just dropped $500 million out of his AUM in his hedge fund named after the town where he owns a castle in Germany. Yes....owns a castle. He thought oil had bottomed.

[Anonymous No.853497]

>>853491

>AUM

What's that?

[Anonymous No.853502]

>>851815
put your money into oil services

go with HAL

[Anonymous No.853503]

>>853309
OK anon, I see you floundering here and I want to help. Help you and the others who say, correctly, "it's got to come back".

First rule: "Markets can wait to come back longer than you can remain solvent".

Second rule: If you must bet on a rally in oil because of your psychological makeup or you incorrect assumption that "it has fallen too far", you must immediately switch to analyzing the standard deviation of the continuous price of oil (Brent or WTI, your choice.).

Go back and look at a continuous price of crude oil either adjusted for inflation or not.
Some charts use a logarithmic scale. That or non-logarithmic is OK, too.

Your mission, Grasshopper, is to look at how many times the price of oil moved 2+ standard deviations away from its mean average. Noe...here's the trick: Having see the price trade along the bottom deviations (or tops, too), your job is to note "HOW LONG" the price of oil stayed away from its mean BEFORE the fucking laws of statistics and markets caused the price to regress to its mean average. One month? One quarter? Half a year? Two years?

Now we haven't even reached a falttening of price yet in oil after it's recent decline started in July, 2014. That tells me that we have a long time to go before any STRUCTURAL change in market fundamentals makes low prices move back up to their mean average over time.

You can day trade and short term trade and take advantage of little pops in price but the ral underlying rocket power won't show up until price has been too low AND FLAT trajectoried for a LONG TIME.

[Anonymous No.853508]

>>853497
AUM = Assets under Management, aka monies, clams, shekels, dinero, samoleans, bucks, farthings, etc...

That's Andy Fastow in the pic. Check out his energy trading and financial experiences via the Wiki.

[Anonymous No.853936]

>>853503
>>853508

Thanks!

[Anonymous No.853938]

>>851840
>10 % every day
kek

[Anonymous No.853963]

>>853503
>economics dictated by laws of statistics

actually believing people's reactions can be quantified

in a rigged as shit market, dictated by national interests

do you work for Glencore?

[Anonymous No.854055]

No need to predict the future.

[Anonymous No.855095]

Bump for close to market open

[Anonymous No.855107]

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/lower-oil-prices-no-swing-producer-by-mohamed-a--el-erian-2015-08

Based El-Erian

[Anonymous No.855287]

>mfw I sold DWTI at the close Friday

[Anonymous No.855596]

>>855287
Don't be greedy, you still got something.

[Anonymous No.855620]

>>851815
I suggest you stay the fuck away from oil for the foreseeable future.

[Anonymous No.855632]

>>851854
>>851846
do i keep my money if it goes low then back up?

[Anonymous No.855927]

Thinking of putting 10K in either Shell or Chevron. Both are low right now and have trended similarly since the recession and both have a great yield. Thoughts on either?

[Anonymous No.855980]

>>855927

Oil just broke below 42 , next stop is 36

[Anonymous No.855985]

>>855980
Nah, not today. It already broke 42, for starters.

Today is going to be interesting, though.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/14/this-strange-event-could-send-crude-oil-soaring.html

[Anonymous No.856128]

>>855985
it wont break 40$

[Anonymous No.856133]

What do you guys suggest long term?

I'm willing to put around 10k into oil right now

[Anonymous No.856139]

>>856133
WTI

all other shit may go bankrupt

[Anonymous No.856143]

>>856139
is that why oil is so low right now?

and if it's so low, why aren't people investing billions and driving the price up? none of this makes any sense...

[Anonymous No.856144]

>>856143
They already have been and have lost their shirt.

[Anonymous No.856147]

>>856143
>investing billions

is not enough

people now are waiting for the bottom, and nobody knows when it is.

Arabs said they can live with 5$ per barrel, so that shit may be the lowest one can expect. Now we are at 42$.

[Anonymous No.856151]

>>856147
jesus they can make a profit of $5? Makes you also doubt if the price will ever go up again now people know this.

has this anything to do still with ISIS?

[Anonymous No.856154]

>>856151
no, but with Russia. They want to hurt their economy.

[Anonymous No.856157]

>>856154
ok but what price is sustainable? Like if the oil price was $20 per parrel would basically all arab and russian companies be able to sustain it?

[Anonymous No.856170]

>>856157
Arabs said they could, Russia would probably get hurt, but who knows Russia is fucking big, not even Russians know what there still is to explore in Russia. They'll probably find a solution, like they always do. Russians have no rock-bottom. Thats why we had no success getting our foot in their territory. Like in Ukraine for example.

[Anonymous No.856176]

>>856170
I can imagine people investing millions now and oil staying between 20-35 for years.

Still if it drops to 35 I'll invest my 10k and simply hold for 20 years

[Anonymous No.856295]

>>856176

It will take a lot less than 20 years for oil alternatives to wreck the demand.

> electric cars
> heating alternatives
> plastics can be made from wood now, just needs ramping up to mass prod levels, 5-10 years away

[Anonymous No.856552]

>>856133
jesus why is everyone else in this thread suggesting single stocks....

Anon look into an ETF like FENY or something similar.

I dumped a lot of my ROTH IRA into this ETF and will let it hold there since I won't be touching my IRA for 30+ years.

[Anonymous No.856577]

If you're looking at Canadian stocks I would recommended Cresent Point Energy. They're currently getting rekt by the oil collapse and will soon bottom out, they offer monthly dividends and are at a good price

[Anonymous No.856705]

>>856151
In 1972, WTI was $3.00/bbl. Arab light was $1.00/bbl.

[Anonymous No.856747]

>>855596

Yup, and with today's dip for the first half of the day I probably would have sold for less.

[Anonymous No.857774]

Bump for reports

[Anonymous No.857800]

Can someone explain the concept of shorting oil?

[Anonymous No.857817]

>>857800
Allow me anon, as I have made some coin doing that in the last year.

Selling "short" is an obligation to deliver a commodity that you don't have at present but you intend to have it at the time of delivery.

The term is nautical and pertains to rope. In the old days when Lloyd's of London was a group of drunk assholes meeting on a park bench to insure vessel cargoes, a sailing ship owner would come to a rope dealer and say, "I need 200,000 feet of a certain grade rope delivered to me in 1 year." The rope dealer would look in his warehouse and see that he had 18 feet of rope available. That was short compared to the length needed. But the rope dealer said "sure" and the deal was struck. Then the rope dealer goes nuts and tells his rope makers and providers to get fucking busy because he had just sold 200,000 ft of rope and he was a bit short in inventory...."

"Long" on the other hand meant that in the same circumstance, and having completed the deal, the rope dealer looked in his ware house and saw 500,000 ft of rope and thank God, he made a sale but he was still "long" 300,000 ft of rope.

I shorted calendar 2015 WTI crude oil in October of 2014 while at a seminar in Stillwater, Oklahoma with a quick phone call to a voice broker. The reason I promised to deliver oil I didn't have ( I was thus "short" like our rope dealer above, only in oil) is that because of the rising dollar I figured oil would fall to $35/bbl like it had several times in years past under the same condition and there would be plenty of oil for me to buy and deliver on the promise I made to sell oil that I didn't have at the time.

Then OPEC and the Saudis did their thing and well, you know the rest.

I have made many mistakes trading oil (and natural gas) in the past but this trade made up for all of those. I will make more mistakes in the future, too, but if I use good risk management it won't hurt so bad given the cushion I have now. As for assets, I am a small fry.

[Anonymous No.857822]

>>857817
Great explanation, thanks man.

Do you recommend any books to read to understand the concepts? I have money to invest, and although I work in finance I wouldn't consider myself knowledgeable about trading in the least.

[Anonymous No.857838]

>>851833
explain ? oil in general or 30 cents wut

[Anonymous No.857845]

>>857822
For trading ANYTHING, just read "The Logical Trader" by Mark Fisher. He writes what the guys at Goldman Sachs can't openly tell you.

For historical basis read what you can find on the internet about "The Turtles". The 1980-ish articles in the Journal are the best.

Trading is so, so much statistics. Thus you MUST read Sheldon Natenberg's "Options and Volatility Pricing" because everyone at JPM and GS have it in their personal library. Bonus: the key to weekly high low calculations of crude oil can be found on page 32. ( At least i can be found there in my edition...Oops: I gave it away! I've been drinking.)

Read "Against the Gods" and you're pretty well done. If you have the time to go through the govt records of the emails of Enron employees in 2000-2001 you'll find the pearl of wisdom from then young gas trader John Arnold when he responded to an email request for "what things should a new hire be knowledgable of to be considered for natural gas trading?" Haha! I still have it. By the way, John Arnold was the only trader at Enron in those days who wasn't a giant asshole.

Pic is of John when he ran his hedge fund Centaurus. He later shut it because of Dodd-Frank, etc., and is a nice guy/philanthropist now. Way to go, John!

[Anonymous No.857851]

>>857845
I just bought a copy of "Security Analysis." Think I should scrap it or read it before the others?

[Anonymous No.857873]

>>857851
If it's the 6th edition yes. Valuation is important in picking stocks and commodities. They are done differently though. Commodity valuation is simpler via weekly RSI (2) depending on your timeframe of observation.
It isn't book on speculation.

Read them all before you do anything and keep on building up your bankroll.

Don't read "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" unless you're just curious and bored and need a "lifestyles" book. There is a pearl in there though but you have to be familiar with speculative trading already to find it.

I never see any comments about Gann's books (W.D. Gann). Gann was a mysterious fucker who traded in the 20s and 30s grain markets and made and lost fortunes. He ended at a loss I think. Lot's of his stuff can be found on off the shelve trading systems. He wrote a book called "The Hole in the Air" about trading and I think he was smoking wacky tabacky when he did. Pic is of W.D. Gann, the weird dude.

[Anonymous No.857876]

>>857873
Yeah it's sixth edition. I'll get through it since I have it.

Any other tips are welcomed. I work in finance and would love knowledge on not just trading but maybe something that'd help me there as well?

I work at a firm that trades mortgages, though, so maybe trading knowledge is good anyway.

[Anonymous No.858562]

>>857817
So a short means that I do an obligation to deliver let' say 100 stocks of WTI in one years time. But the money I get is 100x the current stock value?

So if shorted in Sep 2014 when WTI was 14$, I would get 1400$ immediatly, but would have to buy and sell these 100 stocks september this year on the predetermined date at the current price 3,15$. which would mean I would make a profit of 1085$

[Anonymous No.858571]

>>851818
>>851833

ahahahhahahahahahhahahaaaaaaaaaa

[Anonymous No.858576]

I held onto dwti for 2 months in february and made 45% of my account as i knew the market was going to start bottoming out so why do people overreact so much on beta slippage? Or is it just i'm using such a small amount (10k) that it really doesn't matter much to a small fry like me. Also (RIP) anyone in uwti right now.

[Anonymous No.858581]

UWTI/WTI

>"Oil Prices Sink to Fresh Six-Year Lows"

[Anonymous No.858582]

I think I'm gonna short oil for 10k

[Anonymous No.858584]

>>857845
please post more often, old turkey

[Anonymous No.858638]

>>858582
But how do you just short oil? I understand the concept but what do you do?

[Anonymous No.858643]

>>858638

You click the "short" button on a website, or yell at a phone if you're an oldfag. You can only do so if you have enough moolah, 25k in murica I think.

If you're a pleb, you just buy DWTI.

[Anonymous No.858644]

Almost down $2000 on Exxon.
Mother fucker.

[Anonymous No.858647]

Should I sell my oil stocks immediately? I thought I could hold out for the long run but major collapse seems increasingly likely.

[Anonymous No.858653]

SCO for sure

pic related

[Anonymous No.858662]

>>858643
>DWTI
Isn't that skyrocketing though because of this short theme?

[Anonymous No.858890]

>>858662

It will go up as long as wti goes down

[Anonymous No.858892]

>>858647

With Iran about to enter the market and add to the oil glut, things seem bleak for any pro-oil stocks - go with inverted commodity stocks and ETFs, or options

[Anonymous No.858912]

>>858890
>DWTI
It's hitting the previous peak from a while ago. Isn't that a reasonable sign it'll see declines? Getting on this train months ago may have made sense, but for it to be profitable at this point is a slim prospect, no?

[Anonymous No.858923]

>>855287
>>855596

Bought back in yesterday @ 167

Today feels good

[Anonymous No.858927]

>>858912

Have you read the news? What do you think is going to happen to WTI? Sounds like you're trying to rationalize it without actually knowing what's going on, since you're theorizing instead of making any solid points

[Anonymous No.858932]

>>858923
Do you still recommend the buy in at 190?

[Anonymous No.858933]

>>858927
What do you think is going to happen to WTI? Considering DWTI now that I've got some free cash in hand.

[Anonymous No.858950]

>>858932

I'm an amateur so don't weigh my opinion too much. Personally I'm holding until at least $200. For weeks now oil has been declining just as almost every analyst has been saying. No reason it should stop now. Some are even saying sub $30 bbl. Never know.

[Anonymous No.858961]

>>858950
How much cash did you invest?

If it drops to around 30bbl What would DWTI look like? It'd be ridiculous, wouldn't it?

[Anonymous No.858966]

>>858961

If you need someone else to tell you whether or not you should buy, you probably don't have the stones for this sir

[Anonymous No.858970]

>>858966
Not asking if I should buy. I'm just pretty ignorant so I'm asking general, honest questions.

[Anonymous No.858982]

>>858970

Go to news.google.com and type in oil

and then read everything that's happened in the last few months, and I bet you'll come to a conclusion after reviewing all the data, the charts only tell part of the story

[Anonymous No.859011]

[Anonymous No.859040]

At what point is buying a stock for a company you work for "insider trading"?

I work for a drilling services company and the price has been taking a dive to record lows, but we're heavily investing in R&D and I really feel like we'll come out way ahead if even just a few of those projects make it through the pipeline.

Note, I don't know the specifics of all the projects, just that R&D is going strong and our department is hiring again for the first time in half a year.

[Anonymous No.859046]

If oil was trading at $100 a barrel again would UWTI be back at $60?

[Anonymous No.859048]

>>858562
Anon: please reboot that question.

[Anonymous No.859055]

If world events were to change and everyone think crude were to skyrocket, would it be better to short DWTI or buy UWTI? Would you come out better off with one, or would both options work out to roughly the same in the end?

Also, I read something about someone thinking the owners of the UWTI fund choosing to do a "reset" where everyone is basically left with nothing. Is that likely how low it is now, or even possible?

[Anonymous No.859062]

>>859040
It is insider trading but its OK. Insider actions are reported as such on Yahoo finance. Nothing wrong with that. If you don't work for the company and someone inside gives you material information that will affect the value of the stock before the general market gets the news, well, you're fucked. The SEC has computers looking for sudden things like buying 10,000 shares of American Dildo compared to any trading you or your broker have done in the past in that equity. But, dumbasses still do it.

[Anonymous No.859085]

>>859055
I would imagine that they would work out to roughly the same...

However you could make much more on the futures options market if oil were to skyrocket and you were holding /CL call options at the right strike price.

Example - A single October /CL call option contract at strike price of 44 is going for about $700 right now. If crude were to be going for $50 (not really a skyrocket in my opinion, but a decent increase) by the October expiration, that call option would be worth $6000.
Shit, if some war breaks out in the middle east and the market knee jerks and crude goes up to $100, that call would be worth $56000 at expiration.

Either way, if I were to trade the oil market right now I would buy options.
But I'd be buying puts not calls.

[Anonymous No.859086]

>>858562
Kind of, but not exactly.

What you're really doing with a short is actually "borrowing" stocks, with the intent to return them by a set date. So , you're not given any money to buy and you aren't stuck paying out at exactly an arbitrary day in the future. Your timeframe to return is whenever before the agreed upon day.

If a stock tanks, you make a profit because you return those 100 shares, but you keep the difference like you said.

Now you went over the best case scenario. The reason people don't short that often, is because theoretically losses can be infinite. If you borrow 1000x AMD shares, then they just explode, but you wait until the last day, you HAVE to buy no matter if they went up to $150 or even $1500 a share.

This almost happened to anon here who was stopped by his broker from shorting a stock that increased like 2000% ( yes percent or 20x more) in 4 days. Note he was stopped by pure accident, and any other broker would have made the deal.

[Anonymous No.859123]

>commission free trading with robinhood
Hnnnng, I'm so glad they finally added an Android option.

>>859062
So wait, people inside of a publicly traded company can trade on information not available to the public, as long as that action is reported?

Or did I misread that?

>>859055
Both are leveraged 3x, so I'd assume that you would come out about the same either way. But shorting DWTI will cost you interest, so I figure UWTI would be a better bet.

[Anonymous No.859181]

>>859086
>Now you went over the best case scenario. The reason people don't short that often, is because theoretically losses can be infinite. If you borrow 1000x AMD shares, then they just explode, but you wait until the last day, you HAVE to buy no matter if they went up to $150 or even $1500 a share.

Or as the old aphorism puts it: "He who sells what isn't hisn' must buy it back or go to prison."

[Anonymous No.859190]

>>859040

Talk to your HR or compliance people. But I'd guess that:

>but we're heavily investing in R&D and I really feel like we'll come out way ahead if even just a few of those projects make it through the pipeline. Note, I don't know the specifics of all the projects, just that R&D is going strong and

You're probably OK here in figuring out how to dig oil out of dirt. You're NOT OK here if you worked in biotech and had access to unblinded study results.

> our department is hiring again for the first time in half a year.

You might, but might not, be OK here. I mean, your department head might be a moron who just wants to blow through his budget and inflate his headcount in order to get a promotion or a bigger budget next year, how would you know whether he's got *good* reasons to hire?

The real question is: Do you have a fiduciary duty to your employer to keep secrets. For an example of what would absolutely NOT be OK, "I heard a guy in the sales department bragging about landing the MegaAmerican Drilldo contract for $gazillions." You have a duty to your employer (and your new customer, MegaAmerican Drilldo!) not to damage either by acting on that information. If your competitors knew your company got the Drilldo account, they might undercut the deal. Maybe Drilldo gave you one contract just to see if you could get the job done and keep your collective mouths shut!)

In any case -- your HR or compliance folks (sometimes same people, sometimes different people) will help to guide you on when you can and cannot trade your company's stock.
(1/2)

[Anonymous No.859198]

>>859190
(2/2)

Read the fine print in your employment agreement; there might also be "quiet periods" in which *nobody* can trade. For example, a few days before an earnings report is released, is often such a period. No company wants to take the chance of a random worker walking past the accounting department, seeing some numbers on an unlocked screen, and trading against it. (That's an extreme example, but it can happen, and in such cases, you, as an employee, *absolutely must not* trade it, nor talk about it. It's like 10 times worse than trading based on knowledge what happened to the MegaAmerican Drilldo contract.)

I guess what I'm trying to say is that if there's any doubt, don't. You've got enough financial risk from your employer because they could fire you tomorrow for the lulz. Why add market risk to that when you could invest in something else? There are thousands of companies out there worth investing in. Use your knowledge of industry trends to figure out which of them you might want to trade (barring your employer agreement which might have conflict-of-interest clauses that prohibit you from owning shares of the competition!).

[Anonymous No.859865]

>>859181
wait really, if I short the stock and it goes well beyond my capacity to buy them exploding even 100x, I go to prison?

[Anonymous No.859894]

>>859865
I don't think you'll go to prison, but if you lose more in leveraged positions than you have in liquid assets, ie if you can't pay for what you've promised to buy, you're gonna be in deep shit. Like defaulting on a loan and potentially going through bankruptcy deep shit.

If you're playing with a few hundred dollars, that's incredibly unlikely. If you're playing with $50k and you fuck up a position that puts you $100k under, you could have some serious issues.

[Anonymous No.859902]

>>859055
I don't think you can short DWTI

[Anonymous No.859915]

where do i go if I want to buy stocks from one of these oil companies? I'll wait for it to drop a little more though

[Anonymous No.859920]

>>859894
>you're gonna be in deep shit

please define deep shit

[Anonymous No.859963]

>>859865
>wait really, if I short the stock and it goes well beyond my capacity to buy them exploding even 100x, I go to prison?

Just a figure of speech from back in the days when debtors prisons existed. But yes, if you sold short 100 XYZ at $10/share, and you woke up tomorrow to see it at $1,000/share, you owe the broker 100 shares of XYZ. And since only place to buy those shares is the open market... and you can't afford them, the broker will buy them for you. You now owe your broker $100,000.

So, you declare bankruptcy. Maybe you even discharge the debt. Your broker is in the hole for the unrecoverable portion of it. Which is why brokers have rules about how much you're allowed to short, and why some brokers simply won't let you short XYZ for any reason. By setting rules that prevent their clients from easily making life-altering mistakes, they're protecting their own assets/asses. (In so doing, they're also indirectly protecting their other clients.)

http://www.economist.com/node/12523898

Funny short squeeze story about Volkswagen and Porsche...

[Anonymous No.859974]

>>859920
It would be identical to having a $400k on a house that's only worth $300k, and not having the money to cover the difference. You're gonna lose the house, and they'll come after your other assets to make up the difference. I only know the basics of bankruptcy, but basically "deep shit" means bankruptcy.

[Anonymous No.860005]

Doesn't XOM make a lot of their money refining too? So even if oil does drop to 20/barrel worst case they should get hit a lot less hard than everyone else, right?

[Anonymous No.860159]

>>860005

don't invest in anything that would take a hit from oil dropping, it's very simple

[Anonymous No.860181]

I like KMI, though they're more oil transport.

[Anonymous No.860191]

>>860181

KMI has performed way worse than the SS&P for over a month, what is your plan?

[Anonymous No.860193]

>>860191

*S&P

pic related

[Anonymous No.860196]

>>860191
Doubling down and patience.

[Anonymous No.860200]

>>860196

You could say that about any company that's been low for a while, why are you on KMI specifically? What makes you think it's going to jump back up? Increased oil production?

[Anonymous No.860203]

>>858933
NIGGA IT"S GONNA FALL

[Anonymous No.860215]

>>860200
One of the largest transport company with pipelines across the US. Chose it against EPD. Stable company, decent debt, amazing dividend with 'promised' increases around 10%~ annually. Even if I'm getting slaughtered in stock price, I can patiently wait for it to return. And when oil does rise again, so will it with the dividend as a prize in the meantime. A year is nothing, I can wait. In the meantime, 32$ discount price on a good stock.

I just wish they did more with Keystone and cornered more with the Alberta oil rather than EPD.

[Anonymous No.860224]

>>860215

Can you please help me understand why people are so interested in dividends? Is it because it doesn't require as much focus on performance, and is more hands off? Seems like if you were going for dividends you might as well just give your money to a fund and let them handle it

[Anonymous No.860277]

>>855287

Do we go sub $40 tonight?

[Anonymous No.860279]

>>860277
weak dollar is the only thing keeping it afloat

[Anonymous No.860311]

>>860277

I'm hoping for $15 by the end of the year

[Anonymous No.860316]

>>860277
China just shit the bed on its reported PMI. They bought a fuckton shitload of crude oil 10 days ago which fucked with the Platt's MoC and set the price a little higher for Dubai. But even that couldn't stop the flood of oil on the global market. US domestic producers keep on producing more oil per day even though rig counts declined. Producers need cash flow and the 6 month credit reviews are coming in October. The best oil trader in the world....a "god" as reported in the press.....just dropped $500 million on bad bets thinking a bottom was in. The smart money apparently wasn't.

Long is wrong.

[Anonymous No.860729]

>>860224
That's basically it. For those that don't like the idea of earning a measly 1.5% on a 20 year CD with penalties galore for any withdrawls, investing through stable companies with repeated dividend increases is a good way to go. Obviously you can't just grab micro/small caps with unstable 10+% dividends and pray it works cause it never does.

Performance still matters, especially in selections, but it's less of an issue if a certain company tanks stock for a while since you're not a day/swing trader. Invest in good companies with good dividends and be more hands off is the DRiP ideal.
Though for the matter of 'letting a fund handle it', I'd rather die than give away any percent of my earnings for something I can do myself for free. They get paid if I make money or not, who does that?

I'm not completely crazy though. Once I get a few more grand in a month or two it's going into another 50 of VOO to help balance it out.

[Anonymous No.860753]

>>860316

post often man, i swear you're getting a fan! cheers! thank you so much!

[Anonymous No.860759]

>>860316
>>860753

More than 1 fan!

[Anonymous No.860809]

>>851815
I'm all in on SDRL. 28000$ worth. What do you think?

[Li_Sheng !n54GAoW8Vs No.860859]

>>860316
Long is Wrong. Long is Wrong.

[Anonymous No.860889]

I just bought a ton of PGN. They're a discount offshore rig operator. Strong balance sheet, surprisingly robust earnings, and a resilient contract backlog.

[Anonymous No.860903]

>>860809
nonononono

sell

idiot

why

dont

[Anonymous No.861089]

>>860809
HOLY SHIT IS THIS NIGGA SERIOUS,

Please hand me your money, you cannot, I FUCKING REPEAT, you do not know how to fucking manage it!

[Anonymous No.861091]

>>860889
So you just lost about 4% today.

You suck.

[Anonymous No.861103]

>>860889
>Strong balance sheet
Market Cap = $57.89 Mil
EV = $1,94 Bil

>surprisingly robust earnings
Net Income TTM = - $758 Mil

[Anonymous No.862227]

>>851826
I don't see any upside to investing in oil and a lot of downside, if you want to invest in oil long term futures are the only way to go right now.

[Anonymous No.862228]

anyone who invests in oil right now is a fucking moron. The futures curve of oil is still upward curving so oil companies are still priced at around 60-70/barrel in the future. Once that comes down oil companies will tank fucking hard.

[Anonymous No.862628]

>>862228
Goldman Sachs has an analyst named John O'Neill and he advises everyone to look at the price of oil 5 years from today as an indicator of where price will go. Two years ago, the "curve" of that chart was higher in the front than in the back. That meant that oil was in relative short supply compared to demand. Now the price of oil out on that curve is higher than at present. That means there is more oil available now relative to demand than 5 years from now.

All of this is your easy indicator to determine in a longer dated view of the supply / demand picture of oil. It also suggested hedge selling your oil for 5 years out in 2013.

The study of price curves is but one form of technical analysis that has made Goldman Sachs oceans of money for more than 100 years (including J. Aron's trading) prior to becoming part of GS.