/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.844719]

>Commodities are taking a dump

>Stock prices are declining

>QE money drying up

>China's construction bubble is about to come to a halt

Are we headed to a bear market and possibly recession?

[Anonymous No.844724]

>>844719
>possible recession
You're being nice. We're heading toward a full blown meltdown. This is the big crash everyone talked about in 2009. The one to correct the massive gains that begin in 1999.

[Anonymous No.844727]

>>844724
Bear market for you

Faggot

[Anonymous No.844734]

>>844719
low commodities is good for most countries

especially the developed economies

[Anonymous No.844758]

>>844724

I wouldn't call it so much a meltdown as it is a correction. Once Yellen raises rates, everyone will pull out and the markets will contract into a deep recession, but probably not as bad as 2008.

The big losers here are NASDAQ listed dotcom companies. Expect Google's and Facebook's brand to fade like Microsoft's has.

Internationally? Things are definitely more fucked. Russia is already in a depression, China is entering one. Brazil is fucked too, so with the BRICS gone all we have left is the Eurozone which may not exist in ten years. Specifically with the EU, the constant denbts brinksmanship cannot continue forever, something will have to change. And that change is likely a Grexit followed by a Spanexit, which will be disastrous as both the UK and France will have EU referendums in 2018 and 2019ish.

Taken broadly in the US it'll be easy enough to ride out most losses over the long term (10-20 years at the absolute max) as long as you're not some dimwitted venture capitalist that put all his money into whizbangsocial.com.

On a personal note, I'm a trainfaggot foamer and I expect rail adoption to increase in the US regardless how the economy goes. So I put some money into Siemens, GE, Alstom, Talgo and similar companies. I think that's probably one of the safer bets people entering the market in the next year or two can make.

[Anonymous No.844774]

>>844758
That's the problem in China, the correction is happening but its still melting down. China may enter a depression which it may never return to its heighten glory. Its going to be like Japan. Constant stagnation. Russia is fucked and too dependent on international commodity markets. That's what Putin doesn't understand. Brazil economy was tied to oil if I recall correctly. So there lies the problem. The EU might dissolved because Germans are seriously considering leaving the EU. They are constantly bailing out the lesser EU nations. England wants nothing to do with the EU, and never adopted the euro because of it. France is the one trying to hold the EU because without it they are not a world power. They haven't been one since the they anally raped by the Germans.

The US will survive the incoming global recession because that's what hte the US government prepared for since 2008. But I expect big tech companies to disappear or just fade into the shadow liek you said. They do not make a profit and rely on ad money which is a dying business model. So I see the incoming STEM "bust" cycle. Its been in a bust cycle for over ten years. But the media will say otherwise.

Warren Buffet is investing a lot in railroads because he wants to continue his dominance over oil transportation. But I will try to invest in those train companies. Also nuclear companies will make a resurgent in the next decade. Wind and solar tech has failed to meet economic standards. Oil is too expensive to drill and Saudi Arabia is pumping too much oil and now Iran is allowed to release oil into the international markets. Gas will become expensive as well, but it will stay regardless. Coal plants are being closed by a super well funded legal group. http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2015/05/inside-war-on-coal-000002?hp=t1_r
Its a long read, but if you're investing in coal then you should read this. The coal industry cannot muster the money to combat this group.

[Anonymous No.844795]

>>844774

>Germans are seriously considering leaving the EU. They are constantly bailing out the lesser EU nations.

This right here is some of the most stupid shit i've ever read.

[Anonymous No.844797]

>>844774

True but railroads aren't the endall. Remember, General Motors' owns EMD which is the #1 suppler of locomotives in the US and #5 globally. EMD was always profitable through the 00s, and GM got their bailout in part because the FTC didn't want GE to be able to monopolize the locomotive market.

Mind you, adoption is going to be slow, arguably slower than nuclear power. The thing is that until the political partisanship fucking ends (which I expect it will in 2016 when Obama is out) rail development will be at a snail's pace because Congress can't revamp the Highway Trust Fund or make any sort of serious effort to assist cities with their transit problems. Even then, you get completely privately funded railways like Texas's HSR that get completely, utterly stalled because a handful of legislators don't want to make the investment. Nuclear power, for as much as it's stagnated in the wake of cheap oil, doesn't have that same level of constant shit thrown at it. Once the Yucca Mountain project is finally greenlighted (which I expect it to either in 2016 or 2017ish) American nuclear power will get a big boost because even now Congress continues to shovel them research dollars. Fuck's sake up in Lansing they got a free train because WI killed their HSR project at the last minute, but they won't actually use it because of political dickery.

Anyway, as for "surviving the global recession" the US isn't so much "prepared" as it is just not fucked, if that makes any sense. The BRICS are all hugely corrupt and never planned for the inevitable slowdown in growth, China specifically spent their way out of the '08 recession and into the current one. The EU was never built to last, at least in it's current form. All the US has to do is not shit the bed, which Congress keeps on doing every time they threaten a default or how they're currently not funding the ex-im bank which puts what remains of the US's industrial base at serious risk.

[Anonymous No.844799]

>>844797

>utterly stalled because a handful of legislators don't want to make the investment.

*utterly stalled because a handful of legislators don't want to allow the investment.

[Anonymous No.844813]

>>844797
GM just loves to get their hands on everything. But I see the point of the bailout. It was to prevent a monopolization.

Obama is the reason for political partisanship, but the issue is that the voters don't demand their elected officials to do their job. Railway isn't meant to be the end to be all, because there are rising technologies to make them obsolete. Yucca mountain can be used as fuel in a Thorium reactor, but too many anti-environmentalist liberals think nuclear power will turn you into a five arm mutant. The US needs to reinvest in their infrastructure because its aged and in dire need of replacement.

The BRICs thought the party would last forever, instead they're now learning a hard lesson in capitalism. China spending their way out of recessions is going to lead to a giant crash, like what's going on right now. But China isn't meant to take over the US, and it will correct itself back to third or fourth highest GDP. The biggest threat is Congress and their childish non-sense. In 2016 a lot of those congressional folk will get thrown out of office, including the tea party republicans. The 2016 election will be decided by both Gen X and Y. Just like 2012 was for the first time in over fourth years. The baby boomers have lost their political power.

[Anonymous No.844854]

>>844813

Obama's problem is that his sheer presence causes the right to swing harder right. The Tea Party would not exist under someone like Kerry or Biden. The Democrats' problem is that they endorsed two polarizing candidates, Obama and Hilary, which don't have much in the way of moderate support. So the result is that everyone votes for hard rightwingers who just want to stop everything and defund the government.

>In 2016 a lot of those congressional folk will get thrown out of office, including the tea party republicans. The 2016 election will be decided by both Gen X and Y. Just like 2012 was for the first time in over fourth years. The baby boomers have lost their political power.

It all depends on who runs. If Hilary somehow weasels her way into the White House (which I doubt) the Tea Party will exist as a counter. Visa Versa with Trump (though he's a joke, it's just an example). If you had to ask me, a moderate like Webb or Christie has the best shot at the White House purely on the basis that they won't rock the boat. But this assumes that the Republicans can get their act together in regards to the Tea Party, and that the Democrats don't try the identity politics shit again when it's clear that when they make it a "minorities vs white people" thing, the latter will always win as they have since 2010. Obama only got into office because Dubya fucked up so bad, that's not a thing that will happen again anytime soon. What people want, especially younger people, are people focused on the economy and making everything work again. Specifically, I suspect that a thing like a NAFTA repeal (which does have some support on both sides of the aisle) could be a serious thing in the next few years especially if the EU shrinks.

[Anonymous No.844863]

>>844854
>Hiliary
She won't win, that women burned many bridges with Benghazi, the private email server, and Bill Clinton involvement with a billionaire pedophile sex ring. The GOP best hope for a candidate is Christie. He's more of a moderate than a republican. The Democratic hope is either Sanders or someone that hasn't announced their candidacy. Trump is just turning the pot to get more people to notice his businesses. He knows he won't win. The younger population wants job and stability. Something the boomers have to stand behind with because the younger generation is now in charge of their retirement. So NAFTA being repealed is a strong possibility in the next five years. The GOP fiscal conservative(what's left of them) hate NAFTA. Its a blackhole of governmental funds. But Obama signed TPP, which is NAFTA on steroid dipped in nuclear waste. The EU will shrink, and Germany is the only country trying to keep it afloat. The Swiss are just hedging their bets now for a collapse. Remember the huge interest rate hike or something earlier this year? This is something to look at, because the Swiss have the best currency in the developed world. So their swing against the EU sent a strong message to the EU markets. Also a key senator position in California is up for grab. Its a powerful position.

[Anonymous No.844869]

>>844795
+1

[Anonymous No.844872]

>>844734
commodities crashed right before the 2008 crisis too

the market will start panicking shortly after the fed hikes. hold onto your butts

[Anonymous No.844879]

>>844863

Hilary won't win because I think the DNC are smart enough to know that it's a losing hand.

There are two scenarios with her, the first is that she makes it to the general then gets stomped McGovern style by a generic conservative (assuming the GOP aren't stupid enough to allow Jeb to run). The other scenario is that she somehow wins, and Congress remains GOP through her entire eight years. Meanwhile, the constant gridlocking fucks up their reputation with campaign donors and causes a near death spiral that leads to a GOP gangbang.

Which is why I definitely think Webb is their wild card. He's different enough to get moderates. The real question is if the Democrats have any chance in the first election after a generally disliked Dem President.

>But Obama signed TPP, which is NAFTA on steroid dipped in nuclear waste.

Obama signed the fast-track, the final TPP bill doesn't even exist and has not been presented for a vote. In fact, last week negotiations broke down in Hawaii between TPP countries because the economy is going to shit and they're all starting to embrace protectionism. China doesn't want to budge on currency valuation rules, NZ and Canada don't want their dairies messed with and Singapore doesn't want to abide by US banking laws. Then on top of that you have Congress in a sour mood over it, again going so far to not fund the ex-im bank (which is necessary for US trade, free trade or not). And the closer we get to 2016, the less chance the TPP has.

So then there's NAFTA, which even Democrats are turning on because the unions have gotten their shit kicked in so bad (again, see how Scott Walker shat all over Wisconsin with impunity). I don't see it going away within five years, but I do see the debate for it's repeal starting then and perhaps something happening within the 2020s. Right now things are still too good internationally to question FTAs in general, but that will change as free trade in general slows down.

[Anonymous No.844881]

>>844872

Pretty easy to see why. Commodities like oil are a direct indicator of economic activity. A large drop in their use, especially fuel like oil, indicates that there's less economic activity in general. Which is why the current oil slump is so worrying.

[Anonymous No.844883]

>>844863

Hilary won't win because I think the DNC are smart enough to know that it's a losing hand.

There are two scenarios with her, the first is that she makes it to the general then gets stomped McGovern style by a generic conservative (assuming the GOP are stupid enough to allow Jeb to run). The other scenario is that she somehow wins, and Congress remains GOP through her entire eight years. Meanwhile, the constant gridlocking fucks up their reputation with campaign donors and causes a near death spiral that leads to a GOP gangbang.

Which is why I definitely think Webb is their wild card. He's different enough to get moderates. The real question is if the Democrats have any chance in the first election after a generally disliked Dem President.

>But Obama signed TPP, which is NAFTA on steroid dipped in nuclear waste.

Obama signed the fast-track, the final TPP bill doesn't even exist and has not been presented for a vote. In fact, last week negotiations broke down in Hawaii between TPP countries because the economy is going to shit and they're all starting to embrace protectionism. China doesn't want to budge on currency valuation rules, NZ and Canada don't want their dairies messed with and Singapore doesn't want to abide by US banking laws. Then on top of that you have Congress in a sour mood over it, again going so far to not fund the ex-im bank (which is necessary for US trade, free trade or not). And the closer we get to 2016, the less chance the TPP has.

So then there's NAFTA, which even Democrats are turning on because the unions have gotten their shit kicked in so bad (again, see how Scott Walker shat all over Wisconsin with impunity). I don't see it going away within five years, but I do see the debate for it's repeal starting then and perhaps something happening within the 2020s. Right now things are still too good internationally to question FTAs in general, but that will change as free trade in general slows down.

[Anonymous No.844910]

So, as somebody with a bunch of money in the bank and no debt, how is deflation not a good thing for me if I am say, trying to buy a house? Won't they be cheaper?

[Anonymous No.844911]

>>844719
Certainly you could make the argument that under the surface, the warning signs are starting to show.
Regardless of opinions or even technicals ... only price pays. For now the market remains in a year long range, chopping traders to pieces. Wait for the range to break and you will have your answer.

Opinions dont matter ... but my opinion is that we are nearing the end of major EW wave 3 off the '09 lows. A 2011 type correction later this year would set us up for the major wave 5 up into 2017/2018 to end the bull market.

[Anonymous No.844912]

>>844872
The more telling sign of the 2007 top was the flight to AGG. The 3 month rolling return of AGG was outpacing SPY months before the correction started, irregardless of the interest rate environment. Smart money was in fixed income as Joe Main St was losing his ass.

[Anonymous No.844932]

Could it be? The 2015 recession prophecy?

[Anonymous No.844944]

>>844932
You mean the Shemitah? Oh, sorry, that's too far out.

I mean "the seven year cycle of wall street" :^)

[Anonymous No.844951]

>>844872
>>844881
Saudi Arabia deciding to crash the price of oil doesnt = a second global recession

low oil and the like are good for the US and the EU as well as most emerging markets

[Anonymous No.844956]

>>844951

The Saudis aren't the root cause. The primary cause of oil's price drop is that consumption (and thus, demand) has dropped. The Saudis are exploiting it to try and kill newer wells by not cutting production. Then you have Iran coming online, so you get a huge glut.

But the base of that glut, again, is that demand is smaller than supply. Thus, the price is lower now.

Low oil isn't good for the US or EU, because it hurts their domestic industries. And it completely fucks over smaller countries that rely on export. Brazil was looking to profit off it's offshore wells, same for Venezuela. Investment there has stopped for the time being because the low price of oil doesn't justify it. Just look at how Russia's doing.

A second global recession is happening because as usual investors overextend themselves and want to cash out. This is a natural part of capitalism, hence why the term business "cycle" exists. When Yellen raises rates later this year, saving money will become a much more attractive option for smaller investors, who right now have nothing to gain from letting money sit where it can't grow (this was the whole purpose of dropping rates, so that people would go out and spend it).

[Anonymous No.844962]

>>844951
low oil is good for the US, huh? did you know more than half of new jobs since the recession were in energy? you can't have your cake and eat it too

a stronger dollar hurts America as much as it helps. however, it hurts the rest of the world WAY more. have you been paying attention to other countries? they're about to fall into recession

we're just about to raise interest rates which will strengthen the dollar even more

know how much emerging markets have borrowed in US dollars? 9.5 TRILLION dollars. 3 trillion of which is in China. China's economy is already slowing down and they're bullshitting numbers

a stronger dollar will make debt service more expensive AND reduce revenues from commodities. it'll be a bloodbath as companies begin defaulting en masse

[Anonymous No.844965]

>>844797
EMD is a wholly owned subsidiary of Caterpillar now.

[Anonymous No.845004]

>>844965

I had forgotten about that. But that was only in 2010.

[Anonymous No.845005]

>>844956
your chart doesnt show shit

>The Saudis are exploiting it to try and kill newer wells by not cutting production.
here you go

and oh look
>Then you have Iran coming online, so you get a huge glut.

and production hasn fallen off here

the saudis are even producing a million more barrels than they were last year

demand isnt down much at all, the market is over supplied

>A second global recession is happening because as usual investors overextend themselves and want to cash out.
what general shit, not even worth reading

>>844962
the drop in oil helps the US economy, we are 70% consumption driven

>hurr shale drives the whole economy
nope

>most americans work in energy
nope

cap all this, and laugh at yourselves in a few years for me

>the global economy is better when getting raped by 100$ oil
ahahahahahahahahahaha

[Anonymous No.845011]

>>845005
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-12/saudi-arabia-s-plan-to-extend-the-age-of-oil

[Anonymous No.845025]

>>845005
Are you retarded? Shale did drive the booming economy after 2009. Its what made Obama popular in 2012. Most of the jobs added were in the energy sector. Also oil is traded internationally, so it doesn't matter if the US is producing its own oil. You buy what the stock market has set the price to. Increasing production is actually lowering our gas prices but at the expense of the booming economy we had these past few years. This is why Congress is seriously about alternative energies that put America out of the oil dependence. Nuclear made a resurgence in recent years because of its Kilowatts per dollar capacity. Which is the lowest of all energy resources. It cheaper to use nuclear power. Just ask France.

[Anonymous No.845031]

A lot of oil companies that are over leveraged will crash hard given the current oil prices:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2014/12/19/who-will-get-caught-when-the-oil-debt-bubble-pops/

Also if China slows down, the over supply problem will be compounded by weaker demand.

And after this, we will have the Tech Bubble 2.0 crash, perhaps as soon as a few years from now.

[Anonymous No.845056]

>>845005

>demand isnt down much at all

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-01/china-s-fuel-demand-to-peak-sooner-than-oil-giants-expect

>But signs of China’s energy slowdown are already evident. Diesel demand declined last year, and growth in crude oil consumption has shriveled. Crude use is projected to rise about 3 percent this year, less than half the rate of the total economy.

it's stagnating, that means that growth slows so does speculation on the price, thus the price drops as less gains are anticipated. This is especially true as China's economy begings to tank.

>what general shit, not even worth reading

Median wages have stagnated, consumer debt has rising and more importantly consumer spending has fallen. Factor in a shitty job market for new college debt laden grads too.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-consumer-spending-02-percent-june-weakest-gain-32847291

And this isn't even taking into account the fact that Yellen has openly said she wants to raise rates. Guess what happens when that occurs? Regular people stop spending as much and put more into savings and CDs as the rates of return are higher (re: actually exist, as interest rates are currently near zero). This results in lower consumer spending, and in result less earnings for many companies that has a ripple effect up through retailers and suppliers.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-sees-u-s-on-path-to-raise-interest-rates-this-year-1436963439

tl;dr the Saudis aren't helping things but they're not the root of the issue, which is low oil prices

[Anonymous No.845062]

>>845056
So you're saying I should invest in a ROTH IRA before Yellin raising the interest rate?

[Anonymous No.845088]

>>845062

That's what I did, though I did it a few years ago. CDs are going to be much more popular after rates rise too, because even 1% (which is 25% higher than the current rate at most banks) on $5000 over five years gives you an extra $50 for doing nothing. For a lot of people, that's worth the hassle of locking it up.

[Anonymous No.845098]

>>845088

>five years gives you an extra $50 for doing nothing. For a lot of people, that's worth the hassle of locking it up.

Yea for unemployed/impoverished people

[Anonymous No.845109]

>>845088
Well I need to open one before December. That's when they're planning raise the rates.

[Anonymous No.845115]

>>845109
>>845088

Can someone explain why the FED raising interest rates is bad?

[Anonymous No.845134]

>>845115
It causes stock prices to fall drastically, and bond yields shrink while the bond's cost grows bigger. It's just the government's way of "pulling in the reigns" on the economy.

[Anonymous No.845144]

>>844795
If anything Germany might achieve what Hitler couldn't economically, they own Greece, they can provide toxic loans to everyone in the Eurozone when shit really hits the fan and then cause chaos in the countries when they don't pay.

>>844863
Did you see those debates though? Christie is a total asshole. Unelectable.

Also remember that shorting stocks is a legit way to make money if you shorted during a major crash you could laugh your way to the bank.

[Anonymous No.845298]

>>844944
Yes, yes, yes!!!

[Anonymous No.845430]

guys i finally took control over my finances and had my shit transfered from my financial advisor to a DIY broker. So i'm sitting on a lot of cash right now, usually in moments like these I would invest in bonds right now, even though the yields might not be higher than what i can get in a high interest savings account, would I be able to expect negative correlation from bond fund prices to equity prices like is usual with times of crisis, or is this time different? Would gold be better than bond funds right now?

[Anonymous No.845466]

>>845025
>>845056
guys, just cap all this

and laugh at yourselves for me next year, and the year after

>posting chinese demand
but not global demand or production

>some retarded stuff about how shale drives the economy

>the global economy is better when getting raped by 100$ oil
ahahahahahahahahahaha
ahahahahaha
ahahahahahaha
ahahahaha
ahahahahahah
ahahahaha

good luck guy

[Anonymous No.845481]

>the global economy is better when getting raped by 100$ oil
ahahahahahahahahahaha
ahahahahaha
ahahahahahaha
ahahahaha
ahahahahahah
ahahahaha
ahahahahahaha
ahahahaha
ahahahahahahahahaha
ahahahahahaha
hahahahah

[Li_Sheng !n54GAoW8Vs No.846412]

>>845062
Roth has nothing to do with interest rates you horrible troll.

[Anonymous No.846435]

>>845005
what an absolute idiot. I hope you have everything invested in oil companies and lose it all

[Anonymous No.846450]

>>844774
>>844758

Is it exhausting for happeningfags to be wrong all the time?

[Anonymous No.846473]

So commodities/stocks included are going through a downward cycle at the moment, primarily driven by Chinese decline in demand.

Does anyone have an idea where demand will come from in future to meet current oversupply in areas like Iron Ore/Steel, Platinum, Manganese Nickel etc?

Maybe developed nations improving degraded infrastructure?

African infrastructure projects?

[Anonymous No.846513]

>>844774
>http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2015/05/inside-war-on-coal-000002?hp=t1_r
nice link. thanks

[Anonymous No.846935]

is there a better way to track margin debt other than the nyse report at the end of the month? it seems to be a leading indicator of a recession

[Anonymous No.846940]

The only thing that explains our current situation is massive boomer retirement.

We are full employment
Oil is low
Pay is low
Stocks are low
Stock earnings are high

They are retiring and taking money out of the markets.

If the trend holds then we should see a real estate crash.

[Anonymous No.847173]

The commodity market crash leads to worldwide deflation: gold, crude oil, natural gas, copper and iron ore
http://www.globalmacroresearch.org/2015/08/the-commodity-market-crash-leads-to-worldwide-deflation-gold-crude-oil-natural-gas-copper-and-iron-ore/

When to buy gold in 2015/2016: Gold is a way to avoid the market crash in the near future
http://www.globalmacroresearch.org/2015/07/when-to-buy-gold-in-20152016-gold-is-a-way-to-avoid-the-market-crash-in-the-near-future/

[Anonymous No.847184]

>>846473
Supply will get rekt.