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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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8350812 No.8350812 [Reply] [Original]

Financebro here again.. still going as planned.. if you don't buy a home in the next 2 months, hold off for 3-4 years, my friends.. everything I said that will happen is going as planned.. I'm not Q, im a regular dude who does this for a living..
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/senate-passes-rollback-of-post-financial-crisis-banking-rules/2018/03/14/43837aae-27bd-11e8-b79d-f3d931db7f68_story.html?pwa=true

>> No.8351004

>>8350812
yes, we know. A lot of us on this board also read the news.

>> No.8351097

>>8351004
Good to know you do. Most colleagues and people in my life didn't know about this. It may not be in papers just yet, but this will lead to a mortgage crisis sometime between 2021-2022 when the new adjustable 3/1 products released this summer begin to adjust.

Subprime is back..

>> No.8351139

>>8350812
Quick question, how do I know the current status of the housing market? Is there a chart I can look at?

>> No.8351205

>>8351097
remember to thank Trump and /pol/ fags for MAGA. Trump's going to leave an absolute disaster for the next president to clean up.

>> No.8351210

>>8350812

Another housing crash or what’s going on

>> No.8351214

I remember that thread OP, really good stuff.

>> No.8351246

>>8351214
link

>> No.8351269

>>8351139
Well, I follow a bunch of reports and local news sources for an area.. I also contact realtors and ask about inventory in the area I'm considering or that a client is considering.

Most major metros are all extremely hot for sellers.. bidding wars are becoming more prevalent for my clients and I've been having to go back and increase their approval amounts.

I'd start with zillow and see how close the median price in your area is to the county's mortgage limit for fha loan amounts.. the closer it is to the limit, the hotter that market is, in my opinion

>> No.8351270

>>8351205
What planet do you live and were you when the national debt doubled in just 8 years?

>> No.8351277

>>8351205
it was my privilege.

>> No.8351290

>>8351210
Yeah more than likely. 21 or in 22..

This year you will see many smaller banks and brokerages offering bank statement verification loans for income..

>> No.8351308

>>8351290

What’s that mean exactly

>> No.8351347

Thanks for update housebro. Keep checking in

>> No.8351348

>>8351270
lol
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2018/01/15/obamas-federal-debt-grew-at-a-slower-rate-than-reagan-h-w-bush-or-w-bush/#3bcb52aa1917

>> No.8351360

>>8351139
no, it's a very complex beast and even experts don't agree with each other. the long and the short of it is we're in a bubble again but it's anyone's guess if it'll get better or worse any time soon. probably worse with the regulations being stripped out because that means cheap risky credit and poor quality borrowers that are likely to default.

>> No.8351379

>>8351270
You can get political about it, but the removal of regulations without a reasonable replacement is setting our country for a huge disaster. Yeah the last administration took an ax to something needing surgical precision, but removing the rules that force banks to verify income and the types of mortgages hey can offer is reckless considering the guys from Goldman Sachs are writing the law..

>> No.8351396

>>8351379
if you can't trust the jews to run the economy then who can you trust

>> No.8351410

>>8351348
Mate. Are you seriously going to make us post numbers?

>> No.8351412

well fuck a duck.

I'm financing my home through a personal loan of the homeowner (friends mom, she's ballin) and will be paid off in about 3 years. put a big down payment.

this is eluding to home prices falling in a few years? I don't know housing markets at all but I'm paid well and she gave me a killer deal almost all of my monthly goes to principle, and its lawyered up and everything.

I wanted to move after it's paid off and use most as a downpayment closer to the city and get a small home loan then possibly to free up capital would suck to have the housing market shit when I want to sell...

>> No.8351431

>>8351379
The subprime loans already saturate the market dating back before Trump. Not every regulation is a good regulation and you're not naming any specifics.

>>8351348
Doctor it up anyway you like but the natl debt when Obama took office was under 10T.

>> No.8351432

is it harder to get a mortgage during/after a housing crash?

>> No.8351457

>>8351412
it's not like this is a surprise mate. $1 million for a broom closet in san fran you think that's reasonable? the writing has been on the wall for years.

>> No.8351466

>>8351432
Harder to get perhaps but you'll be paying a much lower price.

>> No.8351470

>>8351410
>>8351431
>Doctor it up
navigating the great recession brought on by previous administrations is totally doctored.

Think critically, not emotionally brainlets

>> No.8351475

>>8351432
after because they lock up credit policy to eliminate high risk borrowers

>> No.8351493

>>8351308
It means we will see smaller banks offering shady products to unqualified borrowers that have a higher risk of default. But shit rolls up here in my industry. Those small banks will bundle the bad loans and sell them to the big banks, who will then sell mortgage backed securities on Wall Street under the guise that those loans are not so risky debts. The loans will eventually default and the magnitude of the losses to the big banks are going to be unfathomable considering their going to have more sophisticated products to sell on Wall Street.. once they collapse, the banks will then get bailed out by the government through a process called quantative easing. Millions of good people will lose homes in the next 5 years because banks will be lending to underqualified people

>> No.8351522

>>8351470
Lol anon these arent controversial statements. No one is going "gee 0% interest is the best, we should leave it there for ever! And QE every christmas!"

>> No.8351527

>>8351493
100% rebecca. this is the most dramatic drivel i've read all evening.

>> No.8351572

>>8351470
>campaign against wall st
>campaign against war
>campaign against govt surveillance
>campaign against bush tax cuts

>give wall st free money no questions asked no demands attached no accountability
>go to war every day for 8 years for the first time in history
>extend the patriot act
>extend the bush tax cuts
>do everything bush did but do it more
>literally double the national debt

>> No.8351578

>>8351493
that is worst case big short scenario which likely won't happen again, at least not to the same extent, but the vales will not keep going up autisticly like they have been

>> No.8351616

any insight on the Canadian housing market? I wanna move out soon but it's not looking good atm.

>> No.8351628

>>8351578
If new MBS's and assorted derivatives bring in big dorra they will absilutely do it

>> No.8351639

>>8351431
Subprime loans were pretty non existent for the past 9 years.. there may have been a few subprime lenders, but the products they offered in the past decade required 30-40% down minimum to ensure the borrower had skin in the game.

The rules changed today.. we will be seeing subprime products under this administration that will allow 100% financing with zero down to borrowers with virtually no taxable income.. there are several small banks I work with who started offering bank statement only income mortgages this year..

>> No.8351641

>>8350812
>BULL RALLY NOW
BULL RALLY NOW
>BULL RALLY NOW
BULL RALLY NOW
>BULL RALLY NOW
BULL RALLY NOW
>BULL RALLY NOW
BULL RALLY NOW
>BULL RALLY NOW
BULL RALLY NOW
>BULL RALLY NOW
BULL RALLY NOW
>BULL RALLY NOW
BULL RALLY NOW
>BULL RALLY NOW
BULL RALLY NOW

>> No.8351674

>>8351628
credit policy is fine, we're never going back to stated income and stated assets, defaults won't blow it up. It's like college tuition. housing prices are going too high too fast and there comes a point where everyone says fuck it and won't be willing to pay $120k for an art degree or $500k for a garden shed anymore. they will then become plumbers and rent and leave all the home owners holding their dicks without anyone to sell to.

>> No.8351682

Alright so my plan is: rent a house until I start seeing shit about this on the news and The Big Short 2 comes out and then buy. I got this.

>> No.8351689

>>8351578
Here's a tip: look up wholesale lenders. Ask to be added to their marketing. Tell them you're working on your mortgage brokers license and want to see the products they offer to low credit borrowers. Did you know you can qualify for an FHA mortgage right now with a 500 credit score? I gain nothing from scaring you guys.. this is just sharing helpful info so you're not wondering what happened to your life in 3-4 years when this huge gnarly bubble pops.

>> No.8351703

>>8351674
>All become renters
Yeah anon great idea, just like the middle ages

>> No.8351706

No I don't really follow canadas market.. sorry!

>> No.8351766

>>8351689
I'm an analyst at a major lender, I know or can look up the full specs for literally any product

>> No.8351792

>>8351703
not everyone just enough people to "return to mean"

>> No.8351797

>>8351527
Maybe you're right, which would mean that I'm wrong and overreacting.. if I'm wrong then it means I'll be getting super rich with no end in sight over deregulation.. but if I'm right, I'll be in a position to buy every foreclosure home on the market in my area for 20$ a sq ft in 5 years. I've been warning everyone who will listen about it including to threads like this publicly.. I don't lie to people, I tell them the truth and I tell every single client what to prepare for in the crisis we will face with the housing market. Maybe it's all speculative, but I've done my homework and the advice I'm giving you is the advice I give my family.

>> No.8351808

>>8351205
you mean like every administration does mr redditor?

>> No.8351839

>>8351797
you're not taking into account the fact that foreclosures are taboo now, there is always a govt sponsored loan modification program someone can do to stay in their home instead of going to foreclosure now. we're not going to see another big short.

>> No.8351850

>>8351674
I wish you were right, but I'm surrounded by mortgage brokers who have been seething and requesting that wholesale banks start doing NINJA loans again.. today's passage pushed them one step closer to do it again.

>> No.8351899

house prices in Manhattan are dropping, luxury real estate is now at 2004 prices

>> No.8351933

>>8351839
I dont know how to convince you nor am I trying to anon, just know that history will repeat itself and the next administration will be left to pay the bill. Harp and hamp loans made me a lot of money and made me proud to help good people, but even those products won't be able to help the magnitude from the very easily to see perfect storm of Student Loan Asset Backed securities, a subprime auto finance meltdown, and a subprime mbs meltdown.

>> No.8351940

>>8351850
they can request all they want but it's the GSEs that set credit policy and the bank that follows them. if they don't the loan is unsaleable and stuck on the bank's books. the vast majority of mortgages will still be under strict GSE stamdards, and the small amount of private investor backed mortgages with shitty underwriting won't be enough to crash the market.

>> No.8351964

>>8351933
values will crash but it won't be from subprime lending

>> No.8351973

>>8351578

(((They))) know that if shit hits the fan they'll be bailed out again, literally zero incentive not to pump the bubble again.

>> No.8352002

>>8351964
Look up the FHA limit in your county. Then think about this: anyone with at least a 500 credit score could qualify for a mortgage of that high limit. You couldn't qualify for a used car with a 500 credit score.

>> No.8352059

>>8351940
Look up the law that passed today anon. GSEs only cover Qualified Mortgages through something called the Qualified Mortgage rule. The law they passed tonight says that any bank with assets less than 10 billion do not have to follow that QM rule anymore to be covered by gses

>> No.8352097

>>8351973
Very much true. It's crazy because 6 months ago people would tell me "the govt will never let banks do that again! There's too many rules to protect us from the meltdown happening again!" Then today they removed those rules and the argument I'm hearing is now. "There's no way we will repeat what happened!"

>> No.8352122

>>8352002
you should be more concerned with low down payments, not credit scores. when the values crash everyone will be underwater and won't be able to sell, it doesn't matter how good or bad their credit will be. also credit scores that low getting full approval is extremely rare. no one that can qualify income-wise ever has a score that low.

>> No.8352274

>>8352122
Im a small broker and I won't share where in I am, but pretty much everyone I know in the industry is offering 100% financing. The big guys the little guys. all my borrowers have to do is cover the title fees and appraisal costs and their escrow. They're done through govt bonds too. So the govt is paying for the down payment. I do 95% loan to value and their's several government bonds that will cover your 5% if your credit score is at least 640..

>> No.8352380

>>8351639
I was talking about car loans but thanks for that info. My big hope is that the next crash is resolved by ending the Fed, not that I'm optimistic about this happening.


You seem to have a favorable opinion of Dodd Frank rules. Why didn't they just reinstate glass stegal?

>> No.8352403

>>8352274
So US govt pays for a bank so they can give a mortgage loan to someone that cannot pay for it? That's insane

>> No.8352518

>>8352380
Wasn't too huge of a fan of Dodd frank, but default rates plummeted once it was fully integrated for borrowers.. TRID sucks and I hate their mandatory dislosures because it confuses borrowers about terms already spelled out in other parts of the loan paperwork.

Glass Steagall getting replaced by GLBA caused the meltdown.. I didn't learn about its impact on the last financial meltdown until I worked with an extremely smart Loan Officer a few years back. I mean, I studied it for mandatory licensing courses but it never really applied to me directly.

Tonight's passage pretty much removed any kind of rules that protected us from the banks lending to underqualfied borrowers. You will be seeing more mortgage and home ads over the next few months.. you will notice everyone around you will be looking to buy a home or buying a home.

If I had to guess why this was passed today, id say the GOP was playing some serious mental chess.. they know they face huge opposition in novembers midterms, but with the timing of this bill, we will see hyperinflated numbers on Wall Street.. they will tout the increase in homebuyers and prices as a sign of how strong the economy is..

>> No.8352575

>>8352403
Yeah, in simpler terms.. actually that's pretty much it.. scary times anon..

>> No.8352676

>>8352575
So the plan is crypto til 2020
Tether up
Then buy a nice apartment complex in 2022

Any other recommendations?