Oil

[Anonymous No.834816]

Shit. These low prices can't last. Going to buy some Bull x5 certificates and wait a year.

[Anonymous No.834820]

At least find an up to date graphic.

[Anonymous No.834822]

>>834820
Piss off and go google it

[Anonymous No.834824]

>>834816
>These low prices can't last.
Actually, they can last quite a while. Consider the fact that Iran will be coming into the market once more and adding to the already severe oil glut.

The main concern now should be the impact of low prices on the shale industry.

[Anonymous No.834872]

>>834816
Expect it to go lower. Iran oil supply is about to flood the market. This will kill the shale industry in the US. Which will force the US into a nuclear option. Obama has chosen a nuclear option. Oil and Gas companies have risen the price because of this incoming glut. Also look at carbon credits or something along those lines in the stock market. Goldman Sachs and other big banks are starting to get into those derivatives. Which means they're getting serious about alternative energies. Just don't invest in China. That market is going to collapse.

[Anonymous No.834881]

>>834872
If China's market really collapses contagion is going to spread into Europe and the USA as a lot of companies have a decent portion of their turnover in China.

Think European luxury car brands and the likes of those.

[Anonymous No.834892]

>>834881
Most major US companies have pulled out of China. They're in Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines. Europe on the otherhand is fucked. The US is secured against China, they will suffer set backs, but not a 2008 style panic. China is in the midst of a 1929 style crash. They nationalized their entire stock market through a bailout. Prevented selling, asked brokerage and financial firms to buy their own stocks to build up "confidence". Sometime in September or October we will see the crash.

[Anonymous No.835359]

>>834816
UWTI OR BUST

[Anonymous No.835485]

>>834872
If a company claims that they have a cheaper 'proppant' (sand stuff used for fracking) that is signficantly cheaper, would it be wise to invest in them considering that these companies are going to get shat on and need a cheap alternative for fracking?

[Anonymous No.835535]

>>834816
My sides. You want oil to go up in price? Ha. Tell your North Dakota shale lords to quit fucking drilling. Tell the Iranians to not start ramping up their oil sales. Tell your investment bankers to quit talking "demand recovery" in a year. You see, we've got up to 12 million barrels per day we can unleash on your markets at less than $5.00 barrel lifting/storing selling costs. Your oil god Mr. Hall didn't do so good trading oil last quarter. That is because we are your oil god and we can do what we want specially if Mr. Putin needs woodshedding for being a global dumbass. We are understanding though...we'll help you have an "oil squeeze" in another 20 years or so. Until then, enjoy a world swimming in oil.

[Anonymous No.835549]

>>834816
>implying it's demand-based

stfu faggot

[Anonymous No.836742]

>>834816
How's that working out for you?

[Anonymous No.836774]

>>834892
Canada, Australia and NZ will be hit far harder than the USA from China.
Singapore in particular could lose its shit big time.

[Anonymous No.836851]

>>834824
>The main concern now should be the impact of low prices on the shale industry.
>Implying that isn't the whole point of flooding the market
laughing saudis.jpg

[Anonymous No.836873]

>>836851
It's still not too late to short drillers and supply companies, profits will be stifled for the rest of the year.

[Anonymous No.836883]

>>835485
LWP wont get anywhere. It's all just a hype train.
The time to sell was when it pumped to the 2.4c range.

[Anonymous No.836886]

Oil prices are going to stay low for a long time. Unless ISIS can penetrate into Saudi Arabia, I just see oil field stocks decreasing.

[Anonymous No.837750]

I bought Shell (B) this week and it has been fantastic. Gains of 5%. Big oil is a long-term hold still, for certain. Stocks are cheap and income is consistent, even with a low price.

[Anonymous No.837782]

>>836851

[Anonymous No.838610]

>>835535
>Autism the post

[Anonymous No.839153]

Algeria, Venezuela, Russia...
BTFO
T
F
O

[Anonymous No.839394]

>>834816
"Gentlemen: Should Americans start buying oil company stocks since demand is expected to increase next year?"

[Anonymous No.839409]

>>839153
Why is gas still $2.70 a gallon? Back in January it was right at $2.00

[Anonymous No.839417]

>>839153
Such a great feeling.
>>839409
Gas prices are coming down everywhere, but refiners can manipulate that.

[Anonymous No.839892]

>>835359

UWTI is looking mighty tempting this week. Hmmmmmm

[Anonymous No.839922]

>>839153
What the news are not mentioning is Norway and Canada, but the effects are very real.

[Anonymous No.840173]

>>839922
Could you elaborate ?
Why media should mention those countries ?

[Anonymous No.840670]

>>834816
How low can it go biz?

[Anonymous No.840677]

>>834816
just 1 year? lel

[Anonymous No.840701]

>>840677

I'm guessing $35.

[Anonymous No.840759]

I think the absolute worst (or best, if you will) case scenario is $12. At that point it becomes impossible for most OPEC nations to do much of anything.

You'll see U.S. shale start packing it if this hits AND stays in the $30-$40 range for longer than a week. Now, will conventional plays still be producing at that price point? Yeah probably, so will gas rigs up in the Marcellus as winter rolls around.

Lot of talk about increased rig count, but that's only for drilling wells to hold acreage...nobody in their right mind is actually completing them and pumping. Production is actually falling (despite media reports) so hopefully that bolsters prices a bit.

From a speculative standpoint, I think they want to re-test this year's lows and then start driving it back up. Demand will be down in the fall/winter as usual, so don't expect a huge V recovery or anything.

I hate making predictions because this thing could whipsaw one way or another if a Black Swan event pops off but I think we mostly cruise along in the $40-$55 range for the remainder of the year.

[Anonymous No.840813]

Any industry fags want to spoon feed us on if it'll bounce off the 52 week or will it blow through it?

[Anonymous No.840815]

>>835485
As long as it's close by where it will be used.

[Anonymous No.840855]

>>840813
Industry fag reporting in from the comment above . I think it blows past and hits $40

[Anonymous No.840910]

>>840813
I'm a snarky industryfag re this thread. People are starting to "price in" Iranian sales should they come. The Saudis won't let the Iranians take too many Saudi customers away. price war will develop. Hello $12.00/bbl. It was there in the summer of 1998 so it could happen again. We shall see.

If Custer was alive today he'd probably be a shale oil producer.

[Anonymous No.840912]

>>839409
$2.24 in DFW area of Texas.

[Anonymous No.840924]

>>840910
Fellow industry fag, I'm not disagreeing with you when I say this but I was hoping the market had already priced the Iranian thing in (remember that day oil dropped 7% or whatever it was). Wishful thinking I guess haha

[Anonymous No.840931]

>>840924
>>840910

With season changing, stockpiles still in the 450 million range, and no drastic change in the demand or supply situation, it's all fucked even w/o Iran. $40 seems to be the floow of how low it'll get, with much more very possible

[Anonymous No.840942]

>>840931
I think the price collapse in crude oil will come in calendar October after the last gasp of so-called hurricane season. I am a quantfag too and there is only a built in 3% chance every year of a hurricane hitting the USGC production zone but you wouldn't believe how many dumbasses in the oilpatch hold out hope for a hurricane to save their ass financially each year. I don't think there will be one this year due to last winter's weather patterns.

[Anonymous No.840950]

>>840942
October is when E&P will start sweating...October through April really. A lot of hedges expiring, debt coming due etc.

Hurricanes tend to have more of an effect on offshore drilling but you're right, it's unlikely we'll get much activity in the gulf this year. Been pretty quiet so far...we'll see what happens in August!

[Anonymous No.841028]

>>835535

I know you're trying to be funny, but it's honestly just cringeworthy.

>he says almost a week later

[Anonymous No.841045]

It has entered a level of resistance, china's bubble burst and the bull market is coming to a close which explains it going back down to early 2015 levels but the economy hasn't ground to a halt, just slowed a little. The market is spooked a little by a few forecasts and headlines.

I won't be buying UCO or anything because it is likely that this movement will take too long, I will buy a company like statoil. The rational side of me says "wait until it hits rock bottom, until it is a sure thing", the opportunist says "it is low enough and might bounce at any time".

hmm

[Anonymous No.841049]

>>841028
Well it's true. Where did you get your cringe analysis credentials?

[Anonymous No.841050]

>>841045
You think it bounces off $42.XX anon?

[Anonymous No.841170]

>>841050
I'm not that precise

[Anonymous No.841450]

>>834816
holy shit, russia is so kill in 2016

there goes the rest of their reserve fund

[Anonymous No.841678]

>>840942
Interesting stuff about the hurricanes. I know bulls have been crossing their fingers for one.

Also gotta remember the diesel supply glut. If that gets big enough and refiners stop taking oil, it's all over

[Anonymous No.841689]

>>839892
serious question: can this hit 0? I'm tempted to buy utwi and hold for long term but not if its possible to completely collapse and lose everything

[Anonymous No.841721]

>>841689
Theoretically, yes. Oil could become absolutely worthless. However, world governments would likely intervene at that point and put in stop-gap measures to prevent a complete collapse.

$12 is the absolute lowest it would probably get though, because at that point Saudis are breaking even (that's a widely reported estimate as every operator in every field has a different "breakeven" cost). Let's just say that at $12...the Saudis are the last player in the game and they would be making nothing.

[Anonymous No.841739]

>>841689
Yes, it can go to zero. There would be a reset if it ever gets too far under $1.

>>841721
He wasn't asking about oil, he was asking about the triple leveraged security.

[Anonymous No.841742]

I work for a refiner and am scared as fuck. My 401k got absolutely raped. Will we see 130 again at some point, even if its years from now? Im still young so I still have decades to go

[Anonymous No.841818]

>>841742
It'll take a loooong time. Oil could be toast for years. However, people forget that the long-run outlook for oil is pretty much the same as it has been. It could easily surpass any previous highs, but you'd have to wait a decade or longer for that to occur.

[Anonymous No.841822]

>>834816
I am a total noob and a poor student with $2K total savings. What is the process to buy, how do I buy and how much should I spend?

[Anonymous No.841832]

>>841822

Put it all on bitpandas.

[Anonymous No.841835]

I've been trading oil for the past two years now so here's my strategy:

1. Oil isn't trading according to fundamentals. When that happens, TA is the best stop-gap option to try to predict things. Right now, oil has hit an identifiable point of support at around $45 or $44. I predict there is a better chance than not that it won't breach that level. It didn't go below it even when there was huge momentum back a few months ago. I have therefore picked up some UWTI as I believe this to be a good probability trade.

2. If it does happen to breach $44 or $45, I have a stop in place. I'll then switch to USO or BNO which I can afford to hold for a long time. Previous history has shown us twice in the past year that $40/bbl is too cheap for rigs to keep operating, so I don't predict it can stay that low for longer than a month.

3. If it continues to go lower, the next point of support is at about $34/bbl. It only reached this level in 2009 with a global meltdown and crisis, so I would again switch to UWTI here.

4. If wacky world comes and it breaks $34, I'll just switch back to USO or BNO and try not to kill myself.

I think all of these trades are high-probability to have good upside.

To all noobs in the thread, please don't hold UWTI or DWTI long term. Google "Beta decay" if this thought crosses your mind.

[Anonymous No.841854]

>>841835
Correction, Google "Beta Slippage" for the noobs.

Also, to those saying it will go below $20, I'd like to see why you guys think it could go down this far. Fundamentals say oil should be trading around $60-80. Ignoring fundamentals (as oil is doing), I don't see many technical indicators showing a potential 50% value loss.

Just because idiots keep saying "People who've said oil bottomed have been wrong!!!" doesn't mean this commodity can continue on to $20, or even $30. There was HUGE pessimism a few months ago when oil dropped from $100 to $45. People said it was never going to stop until it hit $15/bbl. This obviously turned out to be false.

[Anonymous No.841938]

>>841739
thanks for the info. does it seem reasonably possible for it to be reset?

would a reset mean shareholders get a set price to sell any outstanding shares back or would the price be put to some value and openly traded again?

[Anonymous No.841957]

>>841938
A reset could happen more or less at any time and you would be left with nothing. This is in the prospectus.

If oil prices continue to fall a resent is highly, highly possible. I'd guess anywhere around the $38 dollar range, but once the security goes under $1 it's a crapshoot.

>>841854
Circumstances are highly different here.

[Anonymous No.842120]

brb picking up 5x bear cert

[Anonymous No.842135]

>>>841854
>Circumstances are highly different here.
How? All I can see is the Iran deal, and it's impacts are going to be limited. Back when oil was dropping like an anvil, there were many people saying (here and elsewhere) that Cushing would literally overflow. We've seen supply withdrawals since then. Combine this fact with substantially less momentum than a few months ago, and this more than takes out the effect of Iran.

What else is different? The Chinese slowdown was already a part of the drop a few months ago. More Iraqi oil was part of the slowdown a few months ago.

What is worse for oil now than a few months ago? What could make it drop to the level of 2009 with the worst economic malaise since the Great Depression?

Unless /pol/s Schmida Effect comes true, there's not going to be a 50% drop.

[Anonymous No.842155]

>>834816

Highly unlikely. A lot of frackers are going to go bust and their assets will be snapped up for cheap by guys with capital who can produce now at $20-30 without legacy cost issues

[Anonymous No.842171]

>>842135

The reasons for the collapse are different. The 2008 commodity crash was caused by the great recession. This one was caused by massive oversupply.

The glut remains at 450 million barrels. Production is showing no signs of slowing down (rig counts are even beginning to steadily climb), the global economy is beginning to turn bearish, China's problems are just getting started, Greece could go south again at any minute, and it's nearing the end of the peak demand season.

I'd argue that 6 months ago all these problems were there, and they're just now getting worse. You'll note that the 50% collapse has already happened -- now it's a matter how how much lower it can go.

[Anonymous No.842243]

Top fucking kek. Gonna be hilarious to watch all these investing noobs get rekt from thinking oil has hit the bottom

Fun fact: the 12 year future value of oil is 0 dollars

[Anonymous No.842250]

>>842171
> A non retarded post on /biz/
It must be crazy season

That being said, I (respectfully) disagree with your analysis.

> the glut remains
When prices plummeted to 44 a few months ago, the glut was increasing at a huge rate. There was huge clamor about "it gunna overflow" which is what helped push prices down the first time. Bears don't have that on their side anymore. When it's stable, it shouldn't continue to lower prices

> increasing rig count
Barely bumped in the past month. It's still down from over 1800 a few months ago to less than 900 today. Also, it decreased by 2 this week due to prices.

> bearish global economy
The economy was stalling a few months ago when the crash happened. The s&p500 has gone up since then

> China
The shanghai index has been getting hit recently, but it's up 20-30% from the first bottom of the oil crash.

> Greece
Tiny tiny fraction of the world economy. Plus it accepted the deal, meaning it's in an objectively more stable position (that's recovery bound) than at the beginning of the year.

> End of peak demand
The "driving season" is a meme from the 70s. The past 6 years hasn't seen an abnormal rise or drop in demand from the summer months that couldn't be explained by other factors.

> already gone down 50%
In hindsight, it's clear there was substantial fat in the oil industry that was easy to cut. But now companies are hemorrhaging funds even at current prices. They can't afford to have oil even stay at $50. The rig count is easy evidence of this.

Note, I'm not saying oil won't go lower. I give about a 60% chance that it won't breach support, but I'm not entirely sure. What I am almost positive of is that oil can't drop down to $20. I give $33 at the absolute most, and that's assuming pretty much everything goes to shit.

[Anonymous No.842255]

>>842243
>Fun fact: the 12 year future value of oil is 0 dollars

Well meme'd

[Anonymous No.842282]

>>842250
Honestly, I hope you're right. I've been wanting to get in on a few rebound stocks for a while now.

I would veer towards being a bit more cautious about Greece, though. I've been watching that pretty closely (NBG is a hell of a drug), and the conspiracy theories about Schauble seem to have some merit. If the deal falls through -- or the market interprets it as a bad one -- Euro plunges and dollar goes up, causing even more pain in commodities. To that end, the rate increase should also hurt.

I like your prices. If it does get to the 30s, I think that's where production will finally tank to the level it needs to -- oil won't be there long if it does, in short. I'd agree that anything with a "$2" in front seems impossible.

[Anonymous No.842327]

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/api-weekly-crude-stock-656

Look at that, oil inventories dropped more than expected.

[Anonymous No.842361]

>>842243
>listening to shit post on 4chan
Just go see what t boone says

[Anonymous No.842378]

>>839409

It's like $3.90 a gallon in Southern California. California has been fucked.

[Anonymous No.842400]

>>842327
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/04/in-the-oil-market-30-is-the-new-50.html

Expected by who?

[Anonymous No.842405]

>>841835
If it breaks 42 it'll go lower. Adjusting for inflation $100/bbl isn't normal, even $70 isn't.

>>842250
The reason oil didn't go lower even though the glut was accelerating at a huge rate a few months ago was because the bulls had hope. They had hope that low oil was a temporary thing, some event in the future will propel oil back up. Now I don't think the oil markets will crash, I'd give it a low percent chance of happening, but I would hedge for it.
Because, if the bulls give up for one day, oil will dive hard. It'll be 2008 all over again, well maybe not that bad.

>They can't afford to have oil even stay at $50.

If oil doesn't crash that's where my bet for end of year oil prices will be. Around that area. If oil doesn't crash lower price oil is here to stay. If oil crashes well all bets are off, we'd probably see $20/bbl before it goes back up to $33 or so.
There's a lot going on, and all it takes for oil to crash is for people to give up hope. So it might be bad for bears, but anon you having hope and trying to spread hope saves people's jobs at least for a little while.

[Anonymous No.842496]

>>842327
Yeah I think we start to get some serious draw-downs in stocks as the data catches up to when rigs really started coming offline. Or...that's my hope anyway.

[Anonymous No.842634]

>>842378
Dude, that's criminal.
I think my sister paid $2.30 today here in South Carolina.

That shit is why I refuse to live in any major city

[Commodity !tRaDER3Jmk No.842774]

>>842400
It literally says in the link how much was expected. I'm assuming that's by the organization the publishes those numbers

[Anonymous No.842816]

>>840173
Well, for one, Canada is the 5th largest producer of oil in the world and has one of the highest potential reserves. Also, most of Canada's oil comes from bitumen oil sands which is expensive like the US shale oil.

Being from Alberta in an oil town, I have to say that this has hit us really fucking hard. There is almost no drilling going on and everyone related to new upstream projects has been sent home. The only saving grace is whatever current projects and downstream refining we have from the major players. The falling Canadian dollar has helped too since we can produce in CAD and sell in USD. Still, we're dipping into recession territory now, the only one of the G7. And we're in an election year, so don't be surprised if we suddenly end up with a socialist party in power.

[Anonymous No.842840]

>>842378
seriously, it's 3.79 here. I cry everytime I fill my car

[Anonymous No.842910]

>>841045
There is no rock bottom.
There is no "sure thing".
You're being completely irrational.

I hope you don't put all your life savings on that.

[Anonymous No.842915]

>>841835
>Oil isn't trading according to fundamentals. When that happens, TA is the best stop-gap option to try to predict things.

Let me just interject for a moment.

Nothing is ever trading according to fundamentals. Short term and small movements are never linked to fundamentals.

Trading = short term = TA. Fundamentals don't matter in trading.

[Anonymous No.842919]

>>842816
NDP won in ALBERTA. Harbinger bro.

Red deer here. All our rig equipment is just parked...

[Anonymous No.842990]

>>834816
>These low prices can't last.
That's what I thought too.
And I am a fucking geologist.
But I think I should reconsider.
should I sell of my SDRL with a slight loss, and go into some green funds?

[Anonymous No.842999]

>>842915

Let me just interject for a moment...

Fundamentals can account for price movement, e.g. whenever the crude stock figure comes out, there is usually volatility. I suppose TA might help you predict which way the volatility goes, e.g. macd lineup

[Anonymous No.843004]

>>842774
In the article I posted a manager successfully called the drawdown, even overshot it by 200k barrels. You might find his next few statements interesting.

[Anonymous No.843006]

>>842840
>tfw 4.40
F u la

[Anonymous No.843015]

>>842816
Play around with this site:
http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/tree_map/export/rus/all/show/2013/
It's for exports but there's also data you can look at for the overall economies too.

Remember the G8? Regardless of other occurrences Russia was also a commodity based economy. Look at Australia and Norway too while you're at it. Once a commodity boom ends these countries will suffer.

>>843006
See the attached picture for why gas remains expensive in LA particularly.

[Anonymous No.843017]

>>834872
>Just don't invest in China. That market is going to collapse.

Bull-fucking-shit.
The recent fall was just a contraction, which is a norm, considering the fact that the stocks have doubled since November. If someone bought Chinese stocks ~9-10 months ago he is still in the green.
It's like the retards, who saw DJ go down in 2009 and went on preaching that US stock market is kill. Only to see it grow from 8k to 18k. Chinese market will ounce back, it's inevitable.

>inb4 muh real estate bubble and "ghost cities"

Not a real issue for the play for the player like China

[Anonymous No.843071]

>>842250
>a retarded post on /biz/
s&p500 going up in the short term is due to sentiment - not exactly right or wrong on this one
China's equity bubble pop was due to fears of Greece. It rebounded due to government intervention and its coming back down again. 2500 is fair value.
Greece will eventually default and exit. There is always a possibility for contagion. Remember not many people extrapolated the housing crash would cause the GFC.

[Anonymous No.843081]

>>843015
>http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/tree_map/export/rus/all/show/2013/
Check out Russia's net exports... 75% petroleum... that's scary

1998 again? lmao

[Anonymous No.843083]

>>843017
It's not a "sky is falling" thing, it's just an issue with the valuation of their equities. Their A-shares trade at a huge premium compared to the H-shares. Don't get me wrong, I think China is a great economic powerhouse but there is a lot of speculation at play in their markets similar to the dot com bubble.

[Anonymous No.843089]

>>843083
There's another problem with China, who knows what the actual numbers are. This applies to their businesses too. No one actually knows how China is performing because of what data they choose to release and how they release it. The whole country could be a giant inflated bubble at this point (probably not that bad).

[Anonymous No.843104]

>>843089
Right. China's equities tend to trade at a discount due to poor accounting practices and an opaque government. I think their move away from production and to consumption is going to be great for global growth. I'm not too familiar with the politics of China but I've heard they are moving to a more capitalist system with less centralization. This equity pop could be a catalyst.

Really interesting economy for the next 10 years. India the next China, anyone?

[Anonymous No.843112]

>>834816
Looks like another bear flag forming

[Anonymous No.843121]

>>843104
Well that's what the CPC showed by selecting Jinping, so it looks like the CPC wants to start opening their markets up more. Unless the CPC changes their position that won't change any time soon.

It depends what you mean the next China. India has a lot of growth potential, and has been growing fairly steadily. But the manufacturing base will probably go to other countries, though India will get a significant boost in manufacturing.

[Anonymous No.843149]

>>843121
Yes, but the development of India could be a huge boon for the world economy. That's what I meant by it being the next China (as China has really driven growth).

Am I wrong? Assuming Modi gets their shit together

[Anonymous No.843157]

well, indian market will be taking a dip in a couple of months.
according to charts*
and also, if we looking at other foreign investors and other companies to come in.
they would come when it's profitable to them,
Buying at low cost would be more beneficial, rather than, buying at current prices.

[Commodity !TRADerNOaM No.843165]

>>843071
>Greece will eventually default and exit

What makes you so sure?
https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?marketId=1294#data1
This shows the lowest probability for Greece to exit there's been all year. Sure this market is only for 2015, but the sentiment across investor circles has been trending down on the issue of Greece.

Furthermore, Greece makes up makes up an almost infintesimal portion of the world economy. With the housing market, there was a very clear bubble that good analysts could see was obviously going to pop. It was obvious there was going to be a contraction, and since housing made up a huge portion of the economy, it was also obvious that it would significantly impact the overall US market. The only question was "how deep?" The closest pinch point was the banks that lended the money in the first place.

Greece doesn't have these factors. It's not important from anything other than a "sentiment" mentality. Where would the firestorm go to? What countries or markets were looking increasingly shaky when it looked like Greece could actually withdraw?

[Anonymous No.843196]

>>843165
>https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?marketId=1294#data1
I have a number of issues with that. The first is that the question is tied to 2015, which means the time limit will decay the value of the bet that it will leave (ceteris paribus). Second, sentiment is a poor indicator when it comes to issues like this. No one though the GFC would occur besides the guys who really knew their shit and they were a marginalized minority.

Your second paragraph is great and I can't completely fault you except the for the first sentence. The theory of contagion is it spreads towards the other PIGS, knocks investor sentiment, or causes a chain effect in other weak markets such as China's equities.

The Euro countries, especially the PIGS, got hit hard by the Grexit scare recently (obviously until the fear subsided) and you could make the case it knocked China's equities somewhat back to reality.

[Anonymous No.843199]

>>843165
>>843196
Just wanted to clarify I don't think a Grexit would be the direct cause of a crash but could cause a malaise in Europe or a domino effect on weak markets. Not probable, but something to still consider.

[Anonymous No.843214]

>>843149
Growth will come from SEA and India in the next decade as far as that area is concerned. China will become South Korea; South Korea will become Japan; Japan will remain Japan.

[Anonymous No.843275]

>uwti 1.30 per

The fuck is going on?

[Anonymous No.843287]

>bullish supply
>oil drops 3%

what the fuck was the market expecting? -10M?

[Anonymous No.843294]

Canadian here

plz buy more Canadian gas American-san

plz

[Anonymous No.843332]

"OK..Stop me if you've heard this one.....So these two shale oil producers try to borrow money from their bank because they think oil prices will rise soon....

[Anonymous No.843341]

>>842378
>Swedish gas prices are ~$6 per gallon
Shut the fuck up.

[Anonymous No.843352]

Royal Dutch Shell and Centrica this week announced that they were shedding more than 12,000 jobs between them. Shell cut capital spending 20 per cent, with its chief Ben van Beurden warning of a “prolonged downturn” ahead.

[Anonymous No.843372]

I work for chevron. The refining side is doing great, but most of their assets are in exploration and drilling so we are getting assblasted anyway. Everyone is nervous as fuck. A lot of old guys had all of their retirement in the stock so theres lots of tension and anger in the air. Im wondering if I should purchase the stock now at these prices.

[Anonymous No.843376]

>>843372
Yes. And you sell in six month when Its up again. This is basic shit here.

[Anonymous No.843406]

>>843372
Dear Chevfag:

Just because CVX is dramatically "own" relative to prior years doesn't mean it's an automatic buy.

As a professional, and based on what I see CURRENTLY, here is what I'd do if I was going to trade CVX. Over a bit of time I think CVX is headed to $35/shr. Between now and then, though, I'd be buying $70 puts at least 120 days out.

I would not go long CVX stock until it traded higher than the highest price of the last 4 weeks (rolling).

Aditionally, if CVX lowers its dividend like the analysts all hope, the price drop will be real quick and you will be a hero in and around your cube farm. The little gap on the monthly chart
between today and July was the signal to start selling off CVX. Banks will be 60% short CVX and only 40% long it (see regression analysis) as they have been since first of the year. That is some trade-speak but it means that their bets are weighted. Good luck!

[Anonymous No.843407]

>>843376
>>timing the market

So uh , with a troubled US , China AND Europe and saudi arabia on record saying theyll keep lowballing (theyre profitable at 5 ycks a barrel) and Irans oil coming back to market , where exactly is the demand going to be coming from in 6 months to warrant this?

[Anonymous No.843409]

>>843287
The market clearly believes that the supply report was bearish. you should read the rest of it, not just the oil inventory portion.

> Gas stockpiles increased
> Diesel stockpiles increased
> American production increased

Big market barf coming when refiners stop making money.

>>843372
Dear Chevfag,
>>843406
What he said.

[Anonymous No.843412]

>>843407
Sometimes the market gets overweighted in one direction or another . (See WTI in 2008; see WTI in 2009.) despite fundamentals, speculators take advantage of statistical facts like standard deviations and mean regression. Doesn't mean fundamentals have changed. Just means people squaring books to capture money to spend on hookers and blow.

Pic not related.

[Anonymous No.843416]

low oil? buy airlines

DAL, LUV, SAVE, UAL, ALK

[Anonymous No.843425]

>>843416

This guy fucks.

[Anonymous No.843430]

>>843416
A little late but yes

[Anonymous No.843451]

>>843416
Buy the etf for airlines (JETS) and sell the etf for oil and gas producers (XOP). Profit!

chart related.

[Anonymous No.843460]

>>843430
great pullback recently tho

LUV fell from $47 to $32 for example

[Anonymous No.843492]

>>843416
>>843425
>>843430
>>843451
>>843460


too bad most airlines hedge oil.

fucking idiots.

[Anonymous No.843497]

>>843492
some lock in with futures, like westjet that one year

btfo the competition by doing it too

[Commodity !TRADerNOaM No.843933]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11768136/Saudi-Arabia-may-go-broke-before-the-US-oil-industry-buckles.html

For those who've been watching oil today, there was a bearish engulfing pattern. It would be interesting to see if oil breaches the support tomorrow. It's looking like it might.

[Anonymous No.843939]

>>843492
zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

i dont really feel like typing a long response

no airline is 100% hedged

here is a very common quote from airlines

"United earlier this year said it had already started to shrink its fuel hedge position.

The airline on Thursday said it expects the oil windfall to buoy its profits"

good luck

[Anonymous No.843963]

>>843492
I have tried to sell derivative jet fuel products to LUV and AAL and Fedex. In the case of LUV and AAL, they used to hedge when they panicked about high prices and were later fucked. Barclays had a lot of airlines "hedged" several years out when oil prices went north of 100 in 2008. Later, KABOOM. So, in 2009 everyone in the jet fuel biz was nearly broke and hated hedging. They had floors full of MBAs who were so dumb about commodity markets. Airlines need cash all the time and if they hedge they do it with the banks who finance operations.

In the case of Fedex, I crashed a hipster party they had in Dallas to meet with job applicants for their air freight wing. My goal was to meet their fuel buyer and slip him/her a card. Got in, met the "team" sidled up to the executive fuel buyer and got in a conversation and soon he advised me Fedex doesn't hedge jet fuel. They just tack on a fuel surcharge if necessary. Boom. Done. There were few hot babes there so the night wasn't a total loss.

[Anonymous No.844001]

>>842634

>any major city

>Paid $2.30 in Detroit today

[Anonymous No.844092]

>>834816
Soo Im a beginner investor. Im just a student but Ive gathered around 7-8k extra by working my ass off. I just put 3k in 5x oil bull yesterday, it was my own idea I got while browsing leverages, not due to this thread. That was my first non-stock deal. How shit was my decision? How long should I wait before selling? Ive made some pretty good deals earlier, but Ive fucked them badly due selling too early or trying to be too greedy. I don't want to do that anymore.

[Anonymous No.844102]

>>843416
>>843451
why not just but dwti if you think oil is going to go lower?

[Anonymous No.844119]

>>842378
>>842634
>>844001
>>842840
>>843006
>>>13176369
TNfag reporting in with that sweet $1.99/gal gas.

[Anonymous No.844120]

>>844119
Oh, derped and tried to cross-link board posts. Pic related to previous post.

[Anonymous No.844157]

>>834872
Oil prices dropped by like 33-40% here in Texas

[Anonymous No.844169]

>>844092
You're fucked. Get out now. Just out of curiosity what's the ticker symbol?

[Anonymous No.844170]

>>844102
Because thinking something is going to happen and willing to risk money on it are two different things. Besides leveraged ETFs can chew you up even If the market moves in your direction.

[Anonymous No.844207]

>>834816

Set up for another ugly day

[Anonymous No.844241]

North Dakota frac oil producers tell OPEC to shove it up their ass.
----------

"North Dakota oil producers are getting more out of the ground because of accelerated new fracing techniques in core areas in McKenzie County. As a result—despite 100 fewer active drilling rigs—production has jumped 32,000 barrels in one month to over 1.2 million BOPD in May..."

http://www.oph.hotlineprinting.com/

[Anonymous No.844262]

>>844102
i never said i think oil going lower

my airline trade has been going well tho

they are cheap, and low oil is just a kicker

[Anonymous No.844263]

>>844092
You're in a leveraged etf in a trending market. You could be dead before you break even.

>>843963
Why would anyone expect MBAs to know anything about commodities? There's probably 10 colleges that even have MBA courses on commodities, the best I've seen is supply chain stuff and energy accounting.

[Anonymous No.844297]

>>844263
There used to be a crude oil floor trader in what was then known as the Nymex named Art Smith. Artie had a PhD in Ag Econ from Texas A&M. He was a great oil trader because he knew commodity fundamentals and he knew the way of the cheating fucks in the open outcry pits back then. I say "cheating fucks" with affection.

The famous trading scene at the end of "Trading Places" was filmed in the crude oil pit of the Nymex, fyi. I am an oldfag but not as old as the Geezer.

[Anonymous No.844322]

>>844297
I'm pretty sure I know who you're talking about, well not in person.

The future pits are dead these days. Most of the action is on the options area and even that doesn't compare to the level the future pits were at.

[Anonymous No.844382]

>>834816
Supertanker just got turned back from Asia. Major problems mounting.

[Anonymous No.844506]

>>844382
Welp, just bounced off 44.20 multiple times... could be a bullish sign.

[Anonymous No.844613]

>>834816
Saudis want to remain a big deal because there is a lot of sunken capital dedicated to servicing that current reality. If the price doesn't keep very low the amount of new infrastructure built around the world will remove them as a player on the world stage.

[Anonymous No.844617]

>>844506
Previous shorts (specifically 1 really, really big one) rolling to October, bro.

[Anonymous No.844648]

>>844617
I'm going to be posting obsessively until then.

I hate shorting.

[Anonymous No.845237]

What kind of technicals you guys use, if any? I guess moving average is a big one, but do you guys use anything else?

[$12.00 USD/BBL on the way No.845926]

>>845237
Any technical tool that trails the market's path is good. Our long term model is built on averages, volatility, mean regression and measured weekly RSI (2). Too bad Andy Hall's traders weren't using that last month.