Prove /pol/ wrong...

[Anonymous No.834517]

>The contagion will start in China and spread to the largely inflated US stock market.

[Anonymous No.834520]

>>834517

Pic related

[Anonymous No.834535]

>>834517
CAPE seems to agree with you there, buddy.

As soon as the short term interest rate so much as puckers its asshole, bond values are going to come crashing down and there's going to be massive exit from the bond market

I hope you're long VXX on that day

[Anonymous No.834550]

>>834535

Here's my theory:
>Central bank (Jews) prints money
>Gives money to rich people
>Rich people look at real economy and see no reason to invest in real economy
>Rich people buy stocks
>Leads to a rise in stock market
>This rise makes no sense but people figure the recovery will eventually come
>Eventually people realize there is no recovery coming
>Markets stall (so far 2015 has been a stall year)
>The Shmita will break faith in the markets
>Jews and Freemasons start mass selling
>General public starts mass selling
>Market tanks
>All that money frozen in the stock market trickles down into the real economy
>Increased inflation in real economy

[Anonymous No.834551]

>>834520
Sep 2015 is when the polar ice caps are expected to fully melt. These models were publicized last winter.

Also China is expected to fully crash because they nationalized their entire stock market.

[Anonymous No.834557]

>>834520
Yeh that seven year jew thing is easily disproved. So , count backwards 7 years and see how often it misses

I never unserstand people who blindly follow infographics when just stopping and googlig for 3 minutes and using basic arithmetic shuts so much shit down

[Anonymous No.834560]

>>834557

It's not every seven years. It only happens three times and this is the third time.

[Anonymous No.834573]

the 2001 crash was in part due to the terrorist attacks so its hard to blame market manipulators for all of it

Also all that money leaving the chinese market is going to make its way over to US stocks because fed sponsored bubbles. Enjoy the peak then sell in early september if youre worried

[Anonymous No.834578]

>>834573
>terrorist attacks
>so its hard to blame market manipulators for all of it

Good goyim

[Anonymous No.834583]

>>834551
>>834520

Additional proof for September being the end of this glorious bull market:

Policy makers on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have made it clear in recent speeches and in minutes from previous meetings that the board is ready to raise interest rates as soon as its next meeting, which will take place on September 17.

"By changing interest rates, the Fed tries to achieve maximum employment, stable prices and a good level growth. As interest rates drop, consumer spending increases, and this in turn stimulates economic growth."

>interest rates will rise for the first time since 2008.

Is /pol/ truly always right?

[Anonymous No.834595]

>>834517
1500 is actually a more sound bet. if our dollar continues to get stronger, the equities market will get weaker.

[Anonymous No.834686]

>>834595
Most stupidest comment posted on this thread in weaks. Strong dollar equals strong economy equals strong markets you fooking returd.

[Anonymous No.834692]

>>834686
ayy lmao

[Anonymous No.834696]

>>834686
if the dollar is gaining strength, people would rather have the dollar over us equities...

[Anonymous No.834698]

>>834560
So its hindsight bias? They just cherry pick a theory to match collapses after the fact?

[Anonymous No.834705]

>>834517

The US stock market is inflated but China won't affect it. Yellen raising interest rates will.

But most of the US's damage will be contained to the NASDAQ, that's where you'll see the biggest drops. The rest of the country will be in a recession for a few years but will likely climb out.

[Anonymous No.834711]

>>834550

>>Eventually people realize there is no recovery coming

This isn't a good way of putting it.

What exactly is happening is that consumer spending is dropping because wages have continued to stagnate while housing costs and such have balloned. Instead of stimulating the economy, the past few years of financial recklesness has only served maybe the top few banks.

So the result is that demand drops (this began in 2012) and factories start to close or lay off workers. And thus consumer spending falls more until you're in an actual recession.

>>834583

She won't do it before or during the holiday season, expect the hike to happen at 11:59 on December 31th.

[Anonymous No.834716]

>>834711
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/29/us-usa-fed-idUSKCN0Q30B420150729

[Anonymous No.834723]

>>834716

I'm of the opinion that she'll still push it off until after the shopping season, at least through Christmas so that retailers get one final season in.

But who knows, maybe she could do it anyway.

[Anonymous No.834725]

>>834573
Dank memes can't melt steel beams.

[Anonymous No.834835]

>>834686
Protip: most Large U.S. Companies have significant foreign operations. These foreign subsidiaries sell their goods in the local currency, and eventually that currency needs to be converted back to the parents currency. When the dollar appreciates relative to these countries it takes more of the foreign currency to get the same amount of dollars.

[Anonymous No.834866]

Jesus christ, another thread full of jew memeing retards without any knowledge of business or economics...

[Anonymous No.834871]

>>834835
No it doesn't as large companies use insurance against that or certain types of credit swaps.

[Anonymous No.835041]

>>834866

enlighten us, shitcunt

[Anonymous No.835054]

>>834535

and all that cash will have to go somewhere

[Anonymous No.835056]

>>835041
nigger. you can either read books and make cash or spout jew memes. and i know what you are doing faggot

[Anonymous No.835093]

>>834696
>>834696
>if the dollar is gaining strength, people would rather have the dollar over us equities...
Fucking what? U.S. equities are a proxy for U.S. dollars. Or did you not know that U.S. companies report earnings in .... wait for it ... U.S. DOLLARS.

You are stupid. Truly, truly stupid.

[Anonymous No.835105]

>>834866
>>835056
another thread where the permabutthurt kike is being butthurt

[Anonymous No.835120]

>>834871
You're a bit confused friend. A credit swap provides protection against counterparty default.

The other insurance you refer to is a currency hedge. A currency hedge has a spot rate (the exchange rate the buyer can use within a certain timeframe) up to a certain limit, and the rate they pay is slightly worse than the current exchange rate as there is an estimation of the future exchange rate baked into the exchange rate assumption.
A simplistic example: if EUR/USD = 1.00 but a U.S. Company with European operations thinks the U.S. Dollar will appreciate to EUR/USD = 0.90, they would want to buy a currency hedge. Their broker will quote them some rate between EUR/USD = 1.00 and EUR/USD = 0.90

[Anonymous No.835141]

What if it just continues to rise for the next year or two? No happenings for you my friend.

[Anonymous No.835166]

Your evidence has no hindsight bias and is solely based on two bear market timings.
This is beyond retarded, cheery picking data and crying "jews" is not going to give you any credibility. Take your memes back to /pol/.

[Anonymous No.835172]

>Crashed before 1600 the last 2 times
>Fell to roughly 800 the last 2 times
>implying you crayon retards didnt claim it will crash a third time when it went close to 1600 in late 2012
>implying you retards didnt miss massive gains if you actualy followed your "strategy"
>implying two crashes from below 1600 to 800 mean that it will crash from 2200 to 800

[Anonymous No.835260]

I feel that a happening is coming within the next year. Conspiracy or no conspiracy.

What I don't see is how the market can continue to go up. The market shouldn't be this high. The stock market has lost touch with reality (ie the real economy).

I suggest put options on an index for sometime in October-December. But it could take an entire year to fall.

[Anonymous No.835264]

>>835260
>The market shouldn't be this high.
Newsflash: the market doesn't give a fuck about your feelings or your fears. Only losers make bets on emotion. Welcome to the thread, loser.

[Anonymous No.835265]

>>835264

Then would you mind telling us why it is so high?

[Anonymous No.835300]

>>835172
This.

The first fucking thing anybody who trades anything learns: if you want to sell uptrends (don't), you better get out of the way on the third push.

[Anonymous No.835303]

>>835265
Markets are at or near their all-time highs on 24% of all trading days. If you freaked out every time the market approached new tops you'd be dumping your portfolio every 4 days. Get a fucking clue.

[Anonymous No.835321]

>>835265
>>835303

6 stocks account for most of the gains in the S&P - AMZN, NFLX, AAPL, GOOG, FB, GILD.

If you emerged from hibernation and picked random, quality low P/E stocks (CAT, PG, UNP, INTC), and were informed of current economic stats, you would extrapolate that we must be in some kind of rotten bear market. All basic material stocks, commodities, China, Europe are swirling around a shit-infested toilet bowl being flushed.

All that matters is that the central bank manipulation helps perpetuate this levitation and illusion that everything is great. Long live toilet paper fiat currency, no inflation despite constant printing and ZIRP, crashing gold prices, rallying share prices of companies that will likely never turn a profit, etc. The ridiculousness runs rampant.

Sure is one fucked up time to be alive.

[Anonymous No.835332]

>>834551
How could they do that?
And what happens when such an event occurs?

[Anonymous No.835341]

>>835321
>the central bank manipulation helps perpetuate this levitation and illusion that everything is great
QE ended in 2014 retard. Get your head out of your ass, or get off this board.

[Anonymous No.835383]

>>835341
>QE ended in 2014

And that's precisely when the market seems to slow down. I hope I'm wrong dude.

[Anonymous No.835405]

>>835383
>And that's precisely when the market seems to slow down.
The market is slowed down? You do know that U.S. large caps are up 9.0% YTD, and large-cap growth specifically is up 9.8%. Mid-cap growth is up 6.6% YTD and small-cap growth is up 7.3% YTD. The entire fucking NASDAQ is up 7.5% YTD. Healthcare stocks (the hottest U.S. sector) are up 13.9% YTD.

Well you say thats just the U.S. What about French stocks (up 19.5% YTD), Japan (16.3 YTD), Germany (11.1% YTD), or even the "troubled" Shanghai composite (up 17.1% YTD).

Look, there are plenty of down performers (I'm looking at you, value stocks) and down countries (cough Latin America cough), but that's why you spread your bets around. And sure, we're not on the pace of 2012-2014, but we're a lot better off than 2011 (how quickly the kids forget).

Stop drinking the kool aid. You're getting bad ideas from very stupid people. Learn to make your own judgments rather than parrot what some faggot on /pol/ told you.

Or don't. I don't give a fuck whether you get rich or stay poor.

[Anonymous No.835420]

>>835405

So you think its going to grow until when?

[Anonymous No.835424]

>>835420
>So you think its going to grow until when?
How the fuck should I know? No one does. You can't time the market.

The only winning play is long-term, where the ups-and-downs don't matter.

[Anonymous No.835428]

>>835321
>racist Obama hater
>apocalyptic view on the world
>massive raging boner for gold despite of it providing zero stability back when it still was a thing

OMG guys, this is like the holy trinitiy of Neo-con econ policy

[Anonymous No.835438]

Also:
>muh can't grow for ever

daily reminder

[Anonymous No.835504]

>>835424
>The only winning play is long-term, where the ups-and-downs don't matter.

I agree but the best time to start playing long-term is at the worst times (ie in the middle of a recession).

[Anonymous No.835512]

>>835093
>>835264
>>835303
>>835341
>>835383
>>835405
>>835424

[Anonymous No.835523]

>>835504
Ok Mr market timer. You wait for the "perfect" entry point and then get all your dosh into the market at the low. Forget about all the studies and evidence that says you'll screw it up. Forget about the fact that you couldn't recognize a market top or bottom if it had a name tag. I'm sure your the 1 in a million special snowflake who'll get it right. Congrats on your future millions.

[Anonymous No.835529]

>>835504
Then sit on your hands until you pinpoint the exact middle of the recession with your expert market timing skills. Meanwhile I'll just be over riding the waves and buying up the dips.

I (and the other poster) can't stress this enough; get your faggot emotions out of the decision.

[Anonymous No.835642]

>>835512

JIDF please.

[Anonymous No.835663]

>>835529
>buying up the dips.

But how do you know they are dips if you can't time the market?

[Anonymous No.835726]

>>834535
>CAPE
lel

[Anonymous No.835846]

>>834551
>fully

[Anonymous No.835862]

>>835663
>"i can't time markets but i can buy dips!"
>"how do you know it's a dip faggot?"
>*crickets*

ahahahaha he got you there EMH faggot.

[Anonymous No.835890]

So, lets suppose this is going to happen. What would be the best move in this scenario? you know, how do you take advantage of the situation

[Anonymous No.835910]

>>835890
buy the dips and go long.

>do you even?

[Anonymous No.835978]

>>835910
Probably buy puts on an index fund like QQQ

[Anonymous No.836053]

>>834517
>>834520

Le shmita effect working would mean we'd see an insane rally up to september as LE SHMITA effect has always set higher tops so far before the "crash".

Better call my broker to get some more leverage.