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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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7795644 No.7795644 [Reply] [Original]

I'm in finance, due to deregulation in the banking industry, there will be an influx of new homeowners with sub prime credit scores..

By 2021, we will be in a recession.

Don't buy a house, wait until everything crashes then and scoop up the cheap houses and stocks.

Until then, live within your means and don't take the next year or two as proof that the economy will never crash..

I'm going to keep my company's nose clean and hopefully keep capitalizing on this cyclical market.

Good luck!

>> No.7795739

Big if true

>> No.7795883

I get emails from investment banks telling me they are all offering new products. After a recent change, they all started offering bank statements as proof of income, instead of taxes.

It's easier to buy a house than it is to buy a used car right now.

It started with the small wholesale banks, now its moving to larger and larger banks that are accepting more risky debts.

FHA minimum credit score right now is like 550 with 10% down for most investors.

You couldn't get approved for a Kohls credit card with that credit score.

>> No.7795953

This I believe, where I live in South Burgerland they are developing houses and communities at a staggering rate.
The level of income has not risen that much to challenge this rate of growth nor the loans taken to constantly develop.

>> No.7796106

when i was buying 2 years ago. i needed 25% down. they said it was because i already had 4 open mortgages at the time.

>> No.7796159

What about selling new constructions to these retards? Should be easy to move inventory if the ty have that easy of access to credit.

>> No.7796172

I really hope it takes 2-3 years. I want to scoop up stocks and maybe houses with my crypto gains.

>> No.7796244

Any evidence to support this? You know I hear we’ll all be living on mars by 2027..

>> No.7796313

I used to look at rates of mortgage approvals when buying property.

You have to wait for what u think is a crash, then look at when there's an uptick in approvals.
Wait two month for prices to flatten.
That's the bottom of the market.
Then buy.

>> No.7796330

US Navy already there

>> No.7796388

Proof? I tried to get a mortgage recently and they wouldn't even talk to me because I only make 16k a year but have over 300k in my account.

At this rate I have to buy outright but I don't like that because I want some balance in my account as safety net.

>> No.7796408

Put half and you get a smaller loan. Wtf is so hard ?

>> No.7796411


>> No.7796424

Which bank?

>> No.7796451

I have some data compiled In researching trends and shifts in the securities and bond markets..

I could be wrong and my data could be skewed, but if it's not, I'm setting myself up for the aftermath of a huge housing market crash.

If its right, then my company will continue to grow, so it's a win win for my company.

>> No.7796472
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Please someone translate this intellectual lingo for me.

>> No.7796496

All of them

>> No.7796499

I too watched The Big Short while mommy brought me tendies. It was the best!

>> No.7796514

Crash is coming, I believe you.

I am saving my money 50% of my savings are in fiat, and 50% in crypto..

>> No.7796541

They wouldn't even respond back.

It would be life changing if I can get a mortgage off a bank statement alone. I'm in a weird housing situation right now because I don't even qualify to lease an apartment based on my income.

>> No.7796575

If you have 300k in an account that is sourced for at least the past 2 months (meaning you can show it's been there for at least 2 months or have a source for the original 300k), that 300k can be divided into 24 months and be used as income. What state are you in?

>> No.7796598


>> No.7796631

That movie was pretty great.. and their warning about banks doing their same tricks again is more true than you think.

>> No.7796754

This is my first time using 4chan. Not sure what's allowed and what isn't.
I'm not licensed in Virginia but I have friends that are..

Look to a broker in your area, do a web search for it.

Questions to ask a potential loan officer if they are paid on points or by units..

Loan officers paid on points usually will charge you a higher rate because they make more money off it, but the plus side is they will find a bank willing to get you keys..

Bankers paid on units don't really know what they're doing and are usually rookies in the business..

Most investors right now can do a purchase with a minimum credit score of 620 with only 5% down

>> No.7796790

I should add FHA only requires 3.5% as the down payment

>> No.7796898

Just google the financial choice act

>> No.7796904

Does this mean I should sell my house now and buy a new one in a few years?

>> No.7797006

I've been actually thinking of selling my house since it has gone up 2x in the past 5 years.

Putting 50% into crypto, 15% into precious metals, 15% into bonds, and 20% cash.

What do you think financebro?

>> No.7797037

Nashville is overflowing with new housing. Luxury apartments are offering 3 months free rent just to get people to come in. No one can afford the 1200 a month.

>> No.7797066

Thx just bought 100 houses

>> No.7797078

I've encouraged a few close people to me who wanted to sell their house that this upcoming year would be the best time to sell with minimal risk.

I told them to rent something super cheap and when it crashes, take that capital and buy a few homes.

Showed a close friend how to do this the last time this happened, he first sold his previous home for a profit of 60k.. rented a home for dirt cheap, then when the market crashed he bought a home for 43k cash and that house is now worth 390k and has no Mortgage.

Not saying you'll do the same, and definitely not saying that past performance is indicative of future gains..

Just really wanted to share with 4chan. I come here for laughs and great reads, and I wanted to share some of my expertise with you folks

>> No.7797106


I'm a real estate agent

I actually believe this is coming, but you could still buy a house anyway. The money/equity you'd save and build over 2 years would make it worth it before the crash anyway. It's just like HODLING

Then we'll probably just go to when 1/3 home transactions used seller financing in 2008.

>> No.7797188

I don't know much more outside of the financial industry.

Bonds are usually safe unless capital hill is burning..

I'm just buying more property when all this crashes.

I want each my kids to have 10 houses each that they collect rent off of..

I'm thinking the goal will happen by 2021.. could be wrong.. but if I'm not, they'll be taken care..

>> No.7797216

Is fha still doing pmi for the life of the loan? When I signed up it was until you had 20% equity so I did a shit load of renovations to raise the value and called to get an appraisal. They said naw bro you need 20% equity of the amount we loaned you... still owe them another 20 grand or so before they stop fucking me for 275 a month.

>> No.7797247

Thank you anon. It's really useful information. We need more of that here.

>> No.7797249

Finally a thread that isn’t about crypto.
I’m about to graduate college and want to start investing but from what I’ve read and listened to (people connected to the Mises Indtitute, Peter Schiff’s podcast, etc) right now is a terrible time to put money into the market because of fed policy, the bond market, etc etc
What’s the best way to start investing in precious metals and oil with a small amount of money to start (~$1000)?
Thanks anons

>> No.7797286

Save up.. don't buy a Jag or a boat..

You're in the industry and you'll be surrounded by rich peers.

Keep yer head down, nose clean, and wait..

The worst thing that can happen with this advice is you'd have a huge bank account..

>> No.7797365

If you have around 1k to play with, make sure you're debt free before playing with it.

Make sure you have at least 6 months worth of bills set aside..

Then if you have play money after all that, I really don't know what could grow that.. i know the mortgage industry inside and out, but when it comes to investing I'm not that sharp on it.

>> No.7797379

I'm inclined to believe you OP, thanks for the info.

But do you really believe the same type of market crash will happen again? The government does get fucked by this are they really going to let this happen again? What can they do to stop it?

Also, friendly tip, when you're around here and don't want to be dismissed as an idiot, don't write with a space between every sentence.

>> No.7797414

This thread demonstrates the worst part about capitalism. Banks knowingly giving out loans to people who can't afford them. Anons scalping cheap houses and then selling them right before they know prices are gonna crash. It disgusts me how predatory the system all is, especially since I know it will just put more families into homelessness

>> No.7797445

>don't use Reddit spacing
>uses Reddit spacing

>> No.7797465

Whatever man. I just bought a house and it was incredibly difficult to get a loan. I have a 750 credit score and still had to put 20% down.

>> No.7797489

Unironically crypto, anon.

>> No.7797512

ummm OP they patched that loophole in 2008

>> No.7797539
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>> No.7797553

please tell me you didnt fall for this meme, anon...

>> No.7797573
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That would be so fucking clutch !!!

>> No.7797643

what do you mean? After 2008 banks cant issue fart without fed approval, that unless trump boys already voided obama singned consumer protections

>> No.7797686

Do you see this impacting the entire global econom? Specifically EU and Switzerland?

>> No.7797715

I'm not happy about this cycle, and I share this news with everyone I talk to. My friends and family are sick and tired of me talking about it.. But it's going to happen again. I'm able to sleep comfortable at night because I don't lie to my clients. I do the right thing and if someone is getting in over their head with a property or purchase, I tell them. I'd rather lose business than lie to someone. But people are short sighted wearing rose tinted glasses about the news.. No one wants to hear that the world is going to bleed them dry in a few years again. They want to hear about the new mid century modern credenza they're going to put in their home. I've told what I've been spouting on here today to every single client, they still move forward. It's scary.

>> No.7797772

House and stock bad, crypto good

>> No.7797773

Thanks, anon. Nice thread

>> No.7797799

Hard to say.. so much of the global economy is tied to the us. I'm not a forecaster for stocks nor economies, but if I had to take an educated guess, I will say it will.

The curveball in all this is how much crypto plays into it..

>> No.7797817

good on you for having the integrity to tell hard truths. i did the same in my industry and the clients only want to hear that everything is roses. keep up the good fight. any thoughts on housing in canada?

>> No.7797831

which is why it's important to teach kids about the basics of investing, how to spot overvalued assets and etc.

If everyone become smarter and more sensible the market won't be as volatile

i know people who think properties "will only ever go uuuuuppp" so they buy it regardless of how overvalued their houses are, and then live like shit for years because of the debt

>> No.7797834

Trumps first day in office he said he will dismantle the cfpb or consumer financial protection bureau.. look into the mortgage choice act, look into the financial choice act.. they're headed back to their old ways and habits..

>> No.7797882

Situations like this wouldn’t happen if it weren’t for central banks causing an increase in malinvestment leading to an inevitable recession.
There is nothing evil or predatory about capitalism.

>> No.7797884

So what are some other indicators besides garbage credit scores being accepted for mortgages that would make you think we are heading for another housing crash? Not saying you are wrong, just want more numbers. Is wage growth and salary growth stagnant? Are mortgages being defaulted on at a larger percentage each quarter ? Homes losing value is more common than gaining value ? Increase in foreclosures ? Come on lay it on me OP. I’m one of your clients who wants to purchase a million dollar home. What do you tell me ?

>> No.7797893

Ohhhh oops in that case we fucked, wonder if FHO 3% loans will also be removed
>thanks Obama

>> No.7797942

You're welcome. I hope this info helps you plan accordingly.

>> No.7798119

That's because your banker made a killing off of you unfortunately..

Your banker may have misled you. 80% ltv usually means they were pushing conventional as the more profitable product due to the higher yield spread they got on you.

With a fico that high and if you have decent income, you would have been treated like royalty at most banks.. but some bankers scare ya and drag their feet because of their incompetence.

>> No.7798127
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I'm just planning on finding a house with some boomers in it, dragging them out by their scalps and opening their throats like muslims do to goats at eid.

Seems fairer than paying these inflated prices and forcing me to deprive my children to line the cruise ship budget of a generation that shall have lethal injections instead of pensions if I have any say in it...


>> No.7798216

Thanks, OP. Why 2021 in particular? Just an educated guess.

>> No.7798217

What's your commission?

>> No.7798242

Fbi your tip has been submitted.

>> No.7798347

Banks are taking riskier bets.

We have a strong economy and housing demands aren't being met by builders.

Large mortgage banks like Loan Depot and Quicken are quietly shifting their gears in the direction of builders because of it.

The start of massive mortgage defaults in my opinion will begin about 18 months after the fha maxmimum loan limit surpasses the average home price in the us.

>> No.7798391

My apologies, when the fha loan limit is surpassed by the average home price in the country, we will see a spike in mortgage defaults 18 months after that.

>> No.7798403

>10% drop

>> No.7798441


1.5%+VAT - includes service cleaning.

>> No.7798464

nigger we haven't even gone to the moon

>> No.7798512


By 2021 my linkstack have already payed off my house several times over

>> No.7798541

Pretty sure a 10% drop in most asset classes barring crypto would be a big deal to most with aftershocks

Then again what do I know

>> No.7798614

Banks are regulated asf now. Leverage is still insane though.

Other finance industries are toxic though. Look up matching adjustment and you'll see most of the insurance industry ain't even solvent under mark-to-market accounting.

>> No.7798655

Im sorry if I'm oversimplifying it..

But a big thing Id recommend is go back to news about mortgages before the last housing bubble.. compare trends and data to then.. it's like we learned nothing from the last housing crisis..

>> No.7798666

I'm building a house this year, lot is paid and I'm the contractor. I was planning on putting it on the market immediately and flipping into a better lot, and building, flipping again. How would you suggest I time this based in your predictions? I will have to rent if house sells until the next one is up, should I wait another three years or will my savings on cost of building leave me in a better position? Meaning I build second house pre crash, and ride it out. I will have significant equity and I will otherwise be renting anyway. Any thoughts appreciated. Also have substantial crypto investments waiting to mature.

>> No.7798692

Do not put 50% into crypto unless you like losing money. That would not be smart. Better off putting it into CDs. Put 10% into government bonds and if you want to play with that 50% put it in the S&P index. I'd stay away from precious metals right now too. Way too volatile.

>> No.7798705

Look into the Financial choice act as well as the Mortgage choice act..

These are two things being pushed through congress without a peep from news sources..

But they're dismantling the cfpb in sections.. we will see bad loans and unethical business practices from them again.

>> No.7798726

off by about 2 years

>> No.7798757

we did late 70s

>> No.7798762

Hard to time that.. it's a competitive market for flips...

You will get a return if you sell within the next year depending on market conditions.. what city are you in? Say if it's SAN Antonio, Google "housing market in San Antonio" and read up on what the trends are showing.. that's what I would do in your situation.

>> No.7798764

I'm a Brit. But Basel III is really screwing banks over atm. They can't really lend too much. Can't comment on specific American laws.

Capital requirements should be higher though. 80% debt to equity should be the max.

>> No.7798775

The FHA 3% loans were the problem, so hopefully they do get rid of them. If you can't afford 10% down, you probably shouldn't be buying a home and should save up some more before you do.

>> No.7798815

no limits just don't make people angry

>> No.7798823

I'm all about Indexes, but the stock market is in a bubble as well. The only thing artificially keeping it afloat is the recent tax plan.

>> No.7798833

>>7798726 my apologies, I should've stated it better, but it will be about 18 months from 2021 where it will be pretty bad on Wall Street.. but the true start of defaults will begin in 2021 in my opinion..

>> No.7798857

What's the best way to personally weather an economic crash

>> No.7798882
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shouldn't you be selling 100 houses

>> No.7798892

RE runs pretty close to a 18-year cycle anyways so 2022 (2021+18mo) is getting close enough for that to be realistic.

>> No.7798938

I don't believe we're anywhere near a home crash because adjustable rate mortgages aren't really a major thing anymore

>> No.7798951


>> No.7798986


Hope so this stuff dulls household formation and causes social tension - need some forest fire to clear out the dead wood - far too much rent-seeking and extraction, not enough productive stuff happens.


>These are two things being pushed through congress without a peep from news sources..

The financial system's creaking now though so how unsupervised do you think this dismantling of the cfpb sections might be?

I mean it's not like they're not aware this was precisely the problem last time - you think it's just diffusion of responsibility / they're all paid for short-term stuff prior to their jobs as consultants and don't care...?

>> No.7799027

where you based nigga?

>> No.7799053

Don't really know much about the housing market in Canada, but I will say when you start hearing about a huge influx of Canadian investors purchasing property in the us, expect a crash to happen a year or two after that.

>> No.7799214

The truth is were at the point where it's been about 7 years since the foreclosures in 2009-12 started. By the end of 2018-2019 everyone who qualifies for a home loan will already have gotten one. This is really the end of the line of the housing bubble were currently in. Rates are rising quickly and buyers will be pushed out of the market.

Go to any major city and try getting a decent house to raise a family for under 500K. Pro tip you can't. When the prime rate rises to 4-5% houses won't be able to sustain the levels they are at now.

>> No.7799230

I wish you could see my inbox from wholesale banks marketing to me regarding ARMs and other non traditional products. Even their non QM products are being pushed hard by the account executives.

I currently have a wholesale bank I use that is pushing a 10/1 libor ARM with a rate that's 2 points lower than any 30 year mortgage.

The flood is coming in my opinion.

>> No.7799266

Mountain destination town, market pretty solid, downturns very late to get here, feeling fairly confident. Actually shopped my loan to a couple banks, some offers were pretty unbelievable, I'm feeling same as you, we're getting close to top.

>> No.7799276

Go to bankrate.com right now, most are pushing close to 5% on 30 years

>> No.7799317

In the US. I'm licensed in 6 states. CA, AZ, NM, OR, TX and WA.

>> No.7799461


Adjustable Rate Mortgages should be straight up outlawed. It's basically like a payday loan for your house.

>> No.7799547

>tfw also nashville bro
>tfw also in real estate dev
it is fucked lmao, they are also built like shit, and our mayor is a cunt for the goddamn sidewalk initiative

>> No.7799657

How can house prices crash when we have an unlimited stream of black skinned brethren pouring into every single western nation relentlessly?

>> No.7799681

OP thanks for your take on things. Threads like these are why I’m still on here. This is offtopic but how did you get started in finance? Would you recommend it? I‘ve got a Bsc in CS but I‘m thinking of pivoting towards finance.

>> No.7799683

If you know how to leap frog by recasting ARMs, you can actually end up paying less than a 30 year mortgage..

But yes, Adujstables coming due and Balloon ARMs being called will cause the crisis.

>> No.7799780

How do they pay for houses?

>> No.7799934

Do you think crypto will be a safe place to be when this comes?

>> No.7799947

I went to college but didn't graduate.. first year in finance I made about 120k.

Opened up my own brokerage, work 4-6 hours a day and make five figure checks helping good people get houses. I do well enough that I can turn down shitty business to make sure I keep my integrity.

Most of my colleagues are former attorneys and high level professionals who wanted to make good money without as much work. If you're good at it and do your own thing, you can make 2.75% at a Minimum on a loan.

On a 200k loan, i can make 5500 easily by brokering it. If I bank the loan, which means I fund it with a warehouse line, I can make 2-3 times that when I sell the loan to a bank a few weeks later. Banking loans is riskier though..

Best part is I don't charge my clients fees nor points for my work. The banks pay me on the back end. I just take their approval and shop it to the bank that gonna house their loan for as cheap as possible to the client.

>> No.7799948

I want to immigrate to Texas in the next few years. Any tips on the Texas housing market? Land looks cheap as hell down there

>> No.7799985

wasn't 3% FHA were introduced by Obama to recover housing market after 2008?

>> No.7800004

Do you think this would also have an impact at the asian and european real estate market?

>> No.7800038

I hate Texas mortgages to be honest. they have something called A6 laws. Look into it.. Texas is one of the best for consumers but it is not very friendly to banks.That's why there is such a discrepancy the markets there.. you can find a 780k home a block away from a 59k trailer..

>> No.7800211

>Do you think crypto will be a safe place to be when this comes?

>> No.7800265

>Don't buy a house
Way ahead of you.

>> No.7800299

Nope that's been around before obama.. he did bump the mortgage insurance requirements up.

This wasn't even Bushs fault, the last recession began with the removal of the glass steagall act being replaced by graham leach bliley act in 1999

>> No.7800387

Ok financefrend
My girlfriend and I are relocating.
We plan on buying a house and starting a business.
We currently have 80k USD between us to play with.
800 credit scores for both of us. Low debt that can be paid off.
What is the best way to leverage as small amount of capital as possible?
Looked into FHA 3.5% owner occupy for a triplex.
SBA Loans if you know much about them - we would be needing a loan of about 500k for the business.
We plan on getting married, is it beneficial or detrimental for multiple loans at the moment? Meaning married, or separate loans while unmarried?
Again, what is the best way to leverage the amount of capital we have at the moment?

>> No.7800466

>by 2021 we will be in recession
we will be in depression by the end of this year, shut up you larping degenerate

>> No.7800471

thx for your input /biz/guy

>> No.7800554

Soooo......you're saying short subprime mortgages again?

Got it, selling 100k.

>> No.7800568

Starting a business will hurt your dti.

You would need a 24month banking history on your business..

The reason for this is most businesses report losses in the first two years and most usually fold.

It's an extremely high risk to give you a mortgage without a stable history of your business with profit..

You're 80k could be divided into 24 months to show a monthly income to continue for the next two years, but then you wouldn't have a down payment and lets say for an fha, your max dti would mean you couldn't qualify for a payment of more than 1866 assuming you had no other debts on your credit report such as an auto loan or credit card payment..

>> No.7800621

You're welcome financebro.

I know it seems like an end of the world doom scenario, but if you play your cards right we can high five eachother at rich people restaurants like Red Lobster :)

>> No.7800646

If people get burned after being warned, they deserve it. No sympathy.

>> No.7800716


2021 is after the end of the year dumbass. And they can easily prop it up til then - they need the normies to hold their bags. So he's not wrong at all.

Fucking Golders. Every days it's "a recession is coming today, ree!" That's not how this works. Since the whole thing is fake to begin with, the big money can just keep pumping indefinitely until they need to dump. Then it pumps again.

>> No.7800755

In regards to marriage, if your state is a community property state, both of your debts will count together.. if she has bad credit her debts will drag you down and bring your rate up.

Banks usually go with the worst of the two to figure out ratios and rates to price. It's all about mitigating risk..

>> No.7800824

It's a proven business model in comparable cities, with no competition in the city we're taking it to.
Fast growing market, I believe our gross revenue will be somewhere north of $50k a week to start.

Regardless, I just want to know what's smarter if we're relocating. Purchase, be it FHA or conventional, or rent and start the business first?

>> No.7800833

I'm hoping I'm wrong, if I'm wrong then the housing market will continue to grow and slight dips won't affect my business.

If I'm right my business will slow to a halt, and my reserves will be used to scoop up property for pennies on the dollar..

>> No.7800930


Don't forget too - normies have weak hands and over leverage. I remember what 2008 was like - with 100% interest only loans, banks will start liquidating them. Which causes more panic, etc. We know how it goes we go through this every other week in crypto kek.

>> No.7801039
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It was nice talking to you bros.. the kiddos just got home, but I'll reply later if you guys have more questions.

>> No.7801058


Yep agreed OP. Most guys I know who get how this works are waiting too - once we see that bottom (maybe around 22 depending on how things play out, how quick QE kicks in etc ) it'll be buying time again.

>> No.7801101

Assuming we both have 800 credit, no debt, and 40k each
Would it then be beneficial to remain unmarried and one of us secure an FHA first time buyer loan for housing.
The other getting a loan for the business? We can acquire more starting capital if necessary.

Basically how do we get as much fucking money as we can from lenders?

>> No.7801107

Thanks OP. That was instructive. Have a good one.

>> No.7801114
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crypto guh? :DDDD

>> No.7801345

thanks financefriend

>> No.7801412

I was mostly just shitposting to be honest but these are actually legit answers.

Thanks bros

>> No.7801723

Why do you want money from lenders?

>> No.7801936

>I do the right thing and if someone is getting in over their head with a property or purchase, I tell them. I'd rather lose business than lie to someone.
We are brothers. You will be rewarded for your honesty in more ways than you can possibly imagine.

>> No.7801964

>cause of financial crisis

newfaggot pls go

>> No.7801996

>Look into the Financial choice act as well as the Mortgage choice act..
>These are two things being pushed through congress without a peep from news sources..
>But they're dismantling the cfpb in sections.. we will see bad loans and unethical business practices from them again.

The federal reserve is the cause of these financial crisises, not muh deregulation

fuck off lefty

>> No.7802002

Why would you buy house sif he said the housing market is overvalued?

>> No.7802049

my parents want to buy apartment units to rent out (on mortgages btw). i keep telling them its a terrible idea. they want me to invest my monies into one because "3% down bro!"

how dumb is that

>> No.7802214

US has laws that encourage lending to blacks and hispanics basically, like the Community Reinvestment Act, I think it's called.

>> No.7802245


With their millions of free XLM

>> No.7802917

To start a business.
Also to purchase a home.
With 80k currently we will need lenders.

>> No.7803053

saw a thread a while ago and have faith that housing will see a downtrend and look good for buyers around 2023. where do we put our value waiting for this happening? the "everything bubble" seems real.

>> No.7803136


Umm, pretty sure he was being sarcastic.

Either way, we all just going to ignore the ID? Oh ok.

>> No.7804039

based housebro. Good read on this thread. I learned quite a bit.

Visit us again.

>> No.7804248


This faggot majors in finance at some shitty university

Yeah lets take advice from the mouth breather 200k in debt for a piece of paper

>> No.7804507
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I also work in finance and agree with this anon. another thing to note is due to tons of govnt modification programs we keeping people in their houses instead of foreclosing, but it's not like they can actually afford to still keep it, we are just keeping them poor. foreclosing on them would be better for the economy.

>> No.7805349

It was greed and unregulated markets, but the glass steagall act never had a large impact.

Ben Bernanke-
>“I’m actually a little puzzled by the focus on that particular provision." "I think that if you look at the actual, what happened a few years ago in the crisis, that Glass-Steagall was pretty irrelevant to it because you had banks like Wachovia or [Washington Mutual] that went bad because they made bad loans, and you had investment banks like Bear Stearns and Lehman that went bad because of their investment banking activities."

Even if Glass-Steagall were still in place at the time of the financial crisis, "it would have had no effect on most of these firms," he said, including AIG, which required massive and repeated bailouts.

>> No.7805386

This guy knows what's up.. the default rates right now are lower than they should be because borrowers are propped up by govt backed programs to prevent foreclosure.

I know someone who hasn't made a mortgage payment in 145 days and the bank didn't even know until he called in.
Servicers are just transferring bad debts and lumping them in with good loans and selling propped up trenches. It could be years before they finally realize what is being done. I know anon made a joke to me about the Big Short, but the things they spelled out in that movie regarding CDO's is going down right now..

>> No.7805450

So are we essentially repeating 2007-2008?

>> No.7805489

I completely disagree with you.

The moment they allowed people's mortgage debts to be traded on Wall Street, they opened the floodgates to analysts and traders to find loopholes and allow bad loans to poison good debt obligations.

Loans should not be traded on Wall Street. If I had a mortgage I wouldn't want it to be a chip on a poker table.

>> No.7805546

In my opinion yes.

>> No.7805581

Fantastic, because we also have a massive student loans bubble and stocks are pumped as fuck from QE infinity.

Sucks for my parents by I am just now starting to get a high paying job and crypto by then should have made me a good amount.

>> No.7805672

>hasn't made a mortgage payment in 145 days and the bank didn't even know until he called in.
you didn't hear it from me but that's probably not the reason they haven't been foreclosed on yet. the regulators clamped down on the foreclosure process hard after 2008 because the banks weren't properly keeping the mortgage documents endorsed when the loans were sold/securitized between each investor sale, and they weren't keeping the physical loan documents stored in custodial banks. without all the signatures from bank officers to transfer the loans between investors and without the physical documents, the banks became unable to foreclose due to lack of documentation. this is what caused the robosigning fiasco. most of the problem loans were private investor backed shit and not the GSE stuff - fannie, freddie, FHA, etc. FHA documentation especially was generally always in good order.

most of the shit is cleaned up now since the OCC cracked down, but there's still some loans out there where the banks don't have enough to actually foreclose on people. trust me, the bank knows they aren't paying, but the people don't know if the bank has all the docs to foreclose either, so they aren't going to tell them that. any big lender has no trouble foreclosing anything after 90s late now, they all have their shit together, and even if the original documents are gone they can still do stuff like judicial foreclosures or quiet title actions. the big banks always win.

so the next bubble bursting won't be near as bad as the last one, if they let it burst at all.

>> No.7805722

I wish I knew.. with the rising rates, the safest bets have smaller returns.. It all depends on what you're willing to risk. I'm not a financial analyst, but I do analyze the finance industry closely for my company's forecasting. Rates will be climbing higher this year in my opinion, and higher rates are indicative of consumer spending. Economy strong- rates go up | Economy weak- rates go down to boost consumer spending.

>> No.7805727

This desu
I tried to tell my 87yo grandmother to shift her portfolio from stocks to cash and precious metals but “the people on MSNBC say the dip in the market was only a correction” etc etc

>> No.7805764

Repackaging mortgage debt had been going on since the 1950s. It wasn't really a problem until recently because they would only do it with the highest quality stuff. The problem with repackaging the mortgage debt was that the scheisters started slicing and dicing the low quality mortgages up and slipping them in with the high quality stuff and the ratings agencies acted like that was fine. Then these big institutions that bought the shit just took the rating agencies' word for it that it was fine. You can have repackaged mortgage debt and not crash the market, you just need people to pay attention to what they're buying and not have borderline fraud on the supply side.

>> No.7805825

look into security backed lending. Now that's going to be the catalyst in the next financial meltdown in my opinion.

>> No.7805852

There's a student loan bubble, a car finance bubble, a healthcare debt bubble, and soon to be, another mortgage bubble. While they're all separate industries, they're all being traded on Wall Street right now.. this is completely speculative, but say if all these bubbles pop, we will see an economic downturn like never before seen. The only way to fix this would be for the govt to print more money to bail them out. The dollar could plummet.. again, this part of my post today is just speculative... I don't know much about all these bubbles, just the mortgage stuff..

>> No.7805867

so are you saying dont buy a house now? i was going to put a downpayment next month

>> No.7805892

so buy gold/silver and guns and ammo?

>> No.7805924

I don't know how you come to a different conclusion.

When you consider the fact that non-bank lenders originated the majority of subprime mortgages, and the buyers of over half of them in the 10 years leading up to the 2008 crisis were not banks but Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which the glass act did not cover.

Add in fraudulent ratings and risk seeking behavior and you have the roots of the crisis

>> No.7805941

The fraud will happen.. it has happened in a firm I know within the past yeAr and they're publicly traded.. a huge bank..

Someone I know submitted documentation, recordings, and statements regarding the massive fraud they committed and they never heard back. They filed the complaint with the cfpb and the sec and neither of those groups ever followed up..

This incident is actually what made me wonder what's next and I started the research. When a bank see that being close to the fire doesn't burnthem, they get closer and closer.. no ones there to watch them until the house is burnt down.

The cfpb is allbut gone atthis point.. once they're gone it will be the wild Wild West.. brokers will qualify shit borrowers with fake documentation, banks will package shit loans with goodloans..

History is repeating itself..

>> No.7806037


>There is nothing evil or predatory about capitalism

Hahaha people are this fucking blinded?

>> No.7806061

Good point. I know you're countering my point, but the behaviors are repeTing themselves.

Allmy Fannie Mae backed banks are offering Non QM products now..

Non QM means it's a loan that wouldn't qualify for Fannie nor Freddie. They allow for higher than normal dti, non traditional income sources, high risk borrowers.

Guess what? Those non QM loans are more profitable for brokers.. if I did those, I'd have a higher yield spread for doing them.

It's crooked as hell.. and completely allowed with recent changes in Congress.

>> No.7806103

thanks for getting back to me. On housing, you state
>there will be an influx of new homeowners with sub prime credit scores

What does it look like on the demand side? Is it just adverse selection?
>masses of poor people with shit spending habits
>knock up a girl
>look for a house

As an east coast, mid 20s, middle class guy, most people I'm in contact with have little to no interest in owning a property or having kids until they're late 30s or 40s. The factors that would drive them to owning a house look like they're far, far away - they'll decide to rent for 2k a month in some shitty city apartment instead of pulling out a short mortgage on a smaller property.
Do you see a reasonable chance that a set of properties will lose a significant portion of their long term investment value any time soon?

>> No.7806133

could you talk more about investing in properties that are ideal to rent? what do you look for? additional overhead/costs? have you done it before?

I would only be looking for one but this seems like a great side-project as long as I'm working in a college-town...

>> No.7806172

>There is nothing evil or predatory about capitalism.
my dude................

>> No.7806221
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Check this out and look into it for more about it.

>> No.7806290
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Is /biz/ not a free market board?

>> No.7806296

Investment properties are tough.. if you're looking to have a rental property, make sure you have at least 6 months of reserves in the event of a tenant not paying or being unable to find a new tenant. Look to see what's nearby.. schools, lightrails, restaurants.. crime rates.. all those things will play into you buying into a smart investment property.

>> No.7806441

The housing markets will always rebound as long as the govt can print money.. big banks are struggling again? Congress will just write a check. It's cyclical..

>> No.7806473

Damn, son. I'm sorry to hear that. Thanks for warning everybody, by the way. This is the sort of thread this board needs.

>> No.7806626

so no real advice just generic bs? larp harder faggot

>> No.7806729

I apologize in advance for my political rant. I don't think we're in a free market.
We like to have the illusion of it, but with groups like citizen united and with gerrymandering all very much alive, we really don't. And don't take my post as an attack on the left or the right. Both sides are guilty of selling out Americans and they've gotten really good at blaming the other side for the problems. Within the last president and this current one, each side has had complete control of all the branches and yet they still blamed the other side of obstructing change.. And it's not changing until people stop becoming so apathetic and self absorbed. As great as I can be about forecasting the pending mortgage crisis, it's going to happen as long as people don't give a shit. People will continue to buy iPhones every year instead of wondering why their phones became victim of planned obsolescence, people will continue to consume corn byproducts because they taste good and never wonder if that's why we're obese, people will still overpay on mortgages to keep up with the jones and never question why they're paying 200-300% over the life of the loan even though they were sold on a 4% rate. As long as humans are more concerned with themselves than the world, you can bet my prediction will repeat itself several times this century.

>> No.7806771

You're spot on. This is why governments have to delay the bubble popping for as long as possible. The next crash is THE crash and so many $ will have to be printed people's life savings are going to be massively reduced in value.

There has been no economic recovery whatsoever, its all propaganda and GDP growth coincides with real estate which is why governments are so happy to let prices fly through the roof for as long as possible. especially here in australia


>> No.7807112

You and everyone who got a tax refund is putting a down next month..

Also every person who's mortgage defaulted 7 years ago and is eligible for conventional.

Also everyone with the lowered requirements from last weeks congressional updates to the choice act. If you buy, you will be buying along with the start of a huge bubble..

>> No.7807266


different anon here - I am also in the market, although just for a condo for myself - $250k is the max i would spend. 29y/o, made 90k last year, no wife, no kids, no debt. still living at home since my parents are about to retire and move South soon - no reason or pressure to move out, just stacking money. should I just rent an apartment?

we got people preaching fire and brimstone over the housing market now, so what the fuck should people in my position do? just rent something?

>> No.7807348


This is correct. I work in risk for a large Australian bank and the stress testing scenarios we run are pretty fucked.

If Australia hits recession, there is very little to no way out of it this time. The mining is over, manufacturing is dead and we aren’t a services economy.

>> No.7807356
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I agree with you 100%. We’re in a crony-corporatist system right now.
That doesn’t take away from the fact that a true capitalist system, without government corruption and intervention, is the most free and optimal way to organize a society.
All of the shit that’s going to happen is because of central banks artificially extending the boom period in this cycle, putting off and worsening the inevitable bust period.

>> No.7807380

Buy if it's the about the same as rent. Buy if you have a stable job. Do not refinance until the crash happens. Don't buy a condo, I've heard way more horror stories than good stories about owners and HOAs and issues with the property. If you do shop, start looking for the worst house on the best block. It's the smartest move you'll do with a home purchase. Once you buy, make sure you pick a fixed rate. And for the love of god, put any extra cash towards your monthly payments. You will knock off decades and save over 100k in interest if you donit right. Rates won't matter if you pay it off sooner. Don't buy a car.. keep your same car until you can't drive it anymore.. that's what I would do in your shoes.

>> No.7807435

>a car finance bubble
Ah yeah I keep forgetting about that one. I give it until the end of the year when major US car companies start slipping on their projected earnings.

>> No.7807491

I live in a ford


>> No.7807582


To bump up to a town house, it would probably cost about 300k minimum, which is now about 50k more than what my top end was going to be.

I understand what you're saying about the house, the problem is: I dont want a fucking roomate, which I would have to get in order to be able to pay the mortgage. I live in Northern Va, in the richest county in the US - there are no houses here for under 400k (single family). A low end townhouse is 300k, and higher end ones are 400k. And even if I did spring for a townhouse - about half of it wouldnt even be used.. I don't need THAT much space...

Renting an apt is about 1200/mo, maybe 1400. I honestly dont mind living at home, but I need to get out soon and start banging chicks again, now that my shit is together - on an adult level. Same reason I dont want any roomates - I want to be able to have chicks over and not have to worry about a roomate sitting on the goddamn couch playing video games when I'm trying to Netflix and chill with my bitch.

>> No.7807813

Huh? Why would it be a larp? He's right. DYOR

>> No.7808169

Anything particular I should know about Oregon?

>> No.7808286

California transplants are making prices higher than ever for Oregon.. but it's sooo beautiful! I plan on buying in Oregon someday. Oregon has one of the steadiest housing markets in the country. look for a home that needs rehabilitation if you want a deal and don't mind a little sweat in your brows..

>> No.7808328

Well said anon. im gonna save that quote. Thanks for it.

>> No.7808368

Portland is rainy AF. Seriously got to my head (that and a stressful living situation). Coming from sunny CA.

>> No.7808421

They should require an IQ test and a 740 credit score.

>> No.7808435

confirmed, visited last fall, was a great town but fuck wet gray skies 24/7

>> No.7808552

I'm a gipsy I'm moving around town to town every 2-3rd year. How can I profit from the financial collapse of normie families? My main goal is free passive income for doing fucking nothing.

>> No.7808563

Not evil just not actively nurturing

>> No.7808673

Your central and major banks are holding US tech stocks which is bad to do the unwarranted trump bull run (continued from 2008), however I’m pretty sure you have a large amount of gold reserves which should increase in value dramatically if the money doesn’t go into crypto

>> No.7808774


you're too optimistic, the recession is coming within the year. by 2019 property values will be down significantly in the US
also, don't ignore the coming war, right after the crash

>> No.7808893

Noob trying to get into gold beforehand everything goes to shit. Is it better to buy gold stocks or stash bullion somewhere?
>college fag so only have around $1000 usd to play with
Thanks in advance

>> No.7809029

You should read up on the Austrian Business Cycle Theory and the Austrian school of economic thought.

>> No.7809247

I’ve been looking into this myself, think I’m going to buy physical gold, I don’t have much experience analysing traditional stock, and a few of these companies could not perform even in the event of gold skyrocketing. I’d rather trade crypto and use gold as a hedge.

>> No.7809430

Be weary, gold reserves may be liquidated to cover the losses on investments. Gold is also speculatively inflated. It's a really tough situation. Spreading out your portfolio will spread out the risk of a bad selection as you should know. Just be prepared.

>> No.7809467

What are other safe areas to stash cash before everything hits rock bottom and you can start investing in companies again? Other precious metals? Oil, and other commodities?

>> No.7809468


Pretty optimist in my opinion, we'll probably see it much sooner, maybe even this year

>> No.7809554

Why do you think 2021 and not earlier? And how do you think this would affect Canada? Toronto housing has been going absolutely insane in the past 2 years and I was about to make a downpayment for a mortgage for a condo.

>> No.7809595

Toronto and Vancouver has the most overpriced housing in the world, you would be insane to buy now

>> No.7809642

I'm as clueless as you. See >>7803053
My gut is saying to accumulate cash. I'm very young so trusty dividend yielding blue chip stocks are a current primary interest outside of crypto and other lower interest options. If i had the answer, I'd love to give it to you. This "qe cycle", mentioned many times over the course of this thread is fuck all. Maybe daddy trump and friends get us back on precious metals backing our paper. I doubt it will help us on the end. Hoping we can get a real call to action.

>> No.7809695

I agree completely, that's why I've held off. I've all-ined on crypto since I don't want to be holding onto all this useless CAD and it's gone very well for me. I'm just looking to move this into somewhere as I'd like to cash out soon, and I'd like to finally have a place to call home.

>> No.7809710

I'm hoping for a recession
Now we'll finally get to see it Bitcoin can do what it was made for, recession protection

>> No.7809780

this is true. systems aren't evil, HUMANS are evil.

>> No.7809929


I told my mom the same yesterday, that if she plans to sell her house during the next 5 years she should sell it this year.


I don't know how is OP reaching his conclusion, but I arrived to the same just by looking at interest rates.

When interest rates are low everyone and their mother borrow money and outbid each other to buy real estate. But when interest rates are raised borrowing money is too expensive so there is a lot less money around and a lot less outbidding so property values go down. This effect is double because as banks expect that real estate prices will go down they will value your collateral lower so there are even less loans and money shopping for houses.

>> No.7809954

I’m with you on blue chip stocks to buy and hold for the long run. Just gotta wait for everything to bottom out to make sure we don’t lose money before we make money.
The only problem with hording cash is that the dollar might lose value like crazy before this is all said and done.

Glad a few of you guys itt get it.
I’d add that a lot of people aren’t evil but just stupid. A governing body cannot predict or control the millions of decisions that make a market function. I don’t care how “smart” the “experts” in Washington are, there are always variables that are unaccounted for and things that aren’t predictable.

>> No.7810915

I agree on your sentiment about cash. I imagine a blue chip should be a decent protection if considering it only for dividends. I would imagine that stuff like JNJ, T, GIS, or DIS would grow proportionally with inflation and the rates of everything else. I haven't done my DD, but that's the inclinations from my economics background.

>> No.7811435

Do you have a Twitter or anything where we can follow you? I wouldn’t want this thread to be the end of where I can get advice from someone like yourself

>> No.7811463

Shit, it's another Northern VA bro literally in the same position as me. 27, earning 80K a year, and wanting to move out.

Literally impossible to get a 1BR apartment in this area for less than 1500. Shit is fucked.

I don't mind living at home but this shit is not helping me from being a khv

>> No.7811574

>I'm in finance, due to deregulation in the banking industry, there will be an influx of new homeowners with sub prime credit scores..

Shits a fucking meme. The last crash was caused by regulations forcing banks to loan to niggers or be hit with discrimination lawsuits. Banks don't actually like to loan to people who probably can't pay them back. This is the most retarded leftist talking point.