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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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720783 No.720783 [Reply] [Original]

So I was really thinking about it, I have quite a bit of money sitting around since I have no time to spend it.

I want to invest in Nintendos stock. Now that they are getting in to the mobile market their profits can only improve. After the Wii crash the prices are much cheaper and im really thinking now is the time. What do you guys think?

>> No.720786

>>720783

>I want to invest in Nintendos stock. Now that they are getting in to the mobile market their profits can only improve. After the Wii crash the prices are much cheaper and im really thinking now is the time. What do you guys think?

Just by looking at this I can tell you have no experience in stocks or is unexperienced.

>> No.720787

>>720786
I know video games pretty well though.

>> No.720803

>>720787
Investments tend to be as much about what other investors are doing as what the company is doing. The time to get in on nintendo was before they announced mobile development.

>> No.720805

>>720803
Until they actually launch the plan and actually have games in the market the stocks will stay low I think.

>> No.720806

>>720783
You missed the move, wait until it's at 13 again.

>> No.720819

>>720805
It's priced in at this point.

>> No.720831

Are any other old game companies likely to follow Nintendo's lead? Atari, Sega, etc? Maybe you can hop on ahead of the news?

I've never used that many question marks...

>> No.720838

I am actually waiting for Nintendo to announce that they are leaving the hardware market completely, and will turn to a licensing model. After the Wii, and Wii U, they are honestly on their last legs. They cant withstand a 3rd round of loses. They will either become Atari, or they will become Activision

>> No.720843

>>720787

Then you would know the difference between something like Mario Cart profits, and Angry Birds profits.

Nintendo became who they are based on a 40% profit margin a game that retails at $50 dollars. Something like Mario Cart that sells 60 million games has a far different profit margin than an Angry Birds/Candy Crush game on mobile which offers 60% profit margins and sells 70 million games at .99 cents.

If you werent a gamer, you would realize this is a last ditch attempt for Nintendo before they concede they have lost and are either going to a licensing model, or going bankrupt

>> No.720844
File: 143 KB, 429x611, 1428269686913.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
720844

>>720783
>Now that they are getting in to the mobile market their profits can only improve.

Or not, and they fail, and you lose most of your principal.

>> No.720847

>>720831
Sega is a real disaster right now they have continuously blundered with every series they own. Half of the studios they have are simply a mess and their only mascot that anyone really fucking knows died in the 2000s. In fact they have been doing so bad they are pulling out of console gaming and moving over to exclusive mobile and pc. So honestly they could easily be another turn around company.

Atari has been quite shitty and pretty much dead for ages.

>>720838
The Wii was a wild success I'm not sure how you see that as a loss? You have to also keep in mind this is the company who owns GameFreak and the pokemon brand. On top of that the 3DS itself is actually doing somewhat decent.

>> No.720857

>>720783
You should get some sort of wealth manager, what you said is pretty fucking stupid and based purely on what YOU think is going to happen, not what IS going to happen.

Also, in this specific instance, Nintendo has something like a 70%+ chance of going bankrupt.

>> No.720859

>>720844
The truth is people love their games but they hate their consoles. The highest selling video game franchise of all time is Mario followed by Pokemon. Hardly anyone owns a Wii U and the only games that push hardware sales are the Mario related ones, in fact they are the only thing making its sales.

They already have a hot product just a poor platform. There isnt anyway they wouldn't make money in the mobile industry.

>> No.720863

>>720847
I see the Wii as a loss considering it was solidly in 3rd for the last generation, the Wii U is solidly in 3rd place for this generation. Nintendo lost well over 1.5 billion dollars on selling the Wii. They have lost another 1.5 billion on the Wii U in far shorter time. Further sales of 3DS have been slipping (the only thing holding them afloat) and of course game sales on their platforms have been slipping quarter after quarter.

Mark my words. Nintendo doesnt exist as a hardware platform in 3 years, or they do not exist at all.

>> No.720869

>>720859
You see what your problem with that is right?

>> No.720877

>>720869
Is it the fact that they are still pushing consoles while going mobile at the same time?

>> No.720884

>>720859

If you feel you have a good understanding of the market then I say go for it. Put your money where your convictions lie.

>> No.720890

>>720877

Its the fact that consoles are in a whole other league of profit than mobil. Mobil is a king maker for small start-ups use to pennies on the dollar of profit. Literally.

A king going mobile is going to experience a horrendous contraction in profits. It doesn't help the US dollar is gaining in currency strength. Nintendo built its empire on $20 profit from each game it sold. It will need to adjust to making 60 cents profit from each game sold... and here is the shocker... no one is going to want to play a 30 hour platformer on a cell phone. You can kiss the Mario franchise goodbye the second you get into the market of 30 second attention spans

>> No.720895

>>720863
This continent maybe. Was it so far behind in Asian sales?

>> No.720905

>>720890
The apps sell more than just the app themselves its the micro-transactions that pull money. Nintendo has been experimenting with the idea in form of DLC for its full fledged games I wouldn't be surprised if they went that route for mobile.

I imagine it turning out like the Kim Kardashian game, everyone already knew who she was so it was an easy sell.

>> No.720913

>>720783
The teens point should be the norm for Nintendo. They saw the mid 70's during the Wii's peak because it was many times cheaper, easier to use and more fun than what the competition offered. Their price went back to normal levels when everyone started shitting on the 3DS having no games. The Wii-U suffered similar problems.

Watch for what the NX does, I believe you have time.

>> No.720920

>>720863
For losing well over a billion dollars over the last few years, their game plan doesn't seem to have changed that much. From what I can observe, the only things they're doing now that they haven't beforehand is micro transactions, this NX project and a heavier lean on Nintendo Direct.

They're also starting to charge LP'ers on Youtube for posting Nintendo game footage.

>> No.720978

>>720920
Thats because they dont buckle when they lose money.

>> No.720983

>>720863
The wii sold better than ps3 and 360 dumbass. Also it was sold at a profit not a loss where are you getting your info wtf

>> No.720985

>>720913
>They saw the mid 70's during the Wii's peak because it was
How good the console is doesn't make the stock price dingus.

>> No.720987

>>720847
Atari hasn't existed for decades it's just the name.

And pachinko sales matter more to sega than sonic does.

>> No.720989

>>720843
Maybe it would help if you actually knew the business.

Candy crush doesn't sell a game but has a freemium model. Angry birds makes most of their money from licensing their characters for merchandise.

Nintendo is a much bigger company than rovio or king.

>> No.720990

>>720983

Maybe by eliminating Japan and the US (the 2 biggest game markets in the world by any measure)

Also, profit per console means nothing when your company hemorrhages money per quarter. Nintendo could have made 99.9% profit per console and still lost billions compared to something like the Xbox.

Want an even better comparison? Look at cross platform earnings. No game on Wii, despite its "superior" sales, sold more than on either of the other 2 consoles.

This isnt video game fanboy investing. This is pure, read the news and the board meeting notes. If a company is losing billions per year, it is easily 3-5 years away from any serious investor coming close to touching it

>> No.720998
File: 21 KB, 554x469, Why.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
720998

Absolute shit investment

The time to get in on that was ~2006 and be out by 2008.

The fact that you can't see that means you have no fucking clue about investing and you just want this one because you're a video game fanboy for the company

Now fuck off back to /v/

>> No.721002

>>720990

>Maybe by eliminating Japan and the US (the 2 biggest game markets in the world by any measure)

so you're only counting europe in your estimates?

Wii Nintendo 2006 101.44 million [18]
Xbox 360 Microsoft 2005 84 million [note 3]
PlayStation 3 Sony 2006 82.7 millio

>> No.721005

>>721002

Literally no one cares about how many of your faggot ass consoles were sold.

Neither of you own any of those company stocks and neither of you are old enough to be posting on this site

Video gamers are the most pathetic bunch of losers

Shilling for companies that you have no vested interest in on a Tibetan Crayola Cartoon porn site >for free

>> No.721009

>>720998

Past prices mean nothing for future prices, accountants pls go

>> No.721013

>>721009

This stock is completely stagnant for the past twenty years. It had one fluke surge for two years and then returned to it's original price.

There's no point in buying this stock unless you want to gamble that it will repeat that again. Otherwise, it's pointless for an individual to purchase it. You will only lose money due to inflation.

>> No.721015

>>721013

Wow, what an in depth quantitative analysis. I commend your thinking. Tell me though, what about the dividends, did they factor into your suggestion?

>> No.721018

>>721015

You know what, just buy it. Use every single dollar you have and just buy as much of it as you can.

>> No.721027

>>721018

Oh I'm not too big on this stock, you can check my id I just got into this thread. I'm just curious about the thought-process on investing from people who have never taken an into to finance class

>> No.721042

>>721027

So you think buying stock from a company that is on a downward trend and is hemorrhaging money is a good deal because they pay dividends.

Thank you for confirming that I was talking to a retard

>> No.721051

>>721042

Wow, no need to be so hateful man. But on the other end, are you still advocating the 1990s-esque style of picking winners instead of balancing a portfolio? Kind of cutely naive I'd say

And also, you keep mentioning past trends as if they haven't been made obsolete by frequency traders, not very up to date with your knowledge there

Sorry but if you haven't ever actually learned the absolute bare basics I wouldn't come here to regurgitate things you read on stocks.com

>> No.721058

>>721051
You're ducking retarded and need to fuck off back to reddit

Ten minutes of research tells you all you need to know about this stock and company. Combine current data with future forecasts and past trends and you have the bare basics,which your dumbass can't understand

Top fucking kek at the rest of your post

>> No.721065

>>721058

Damn, man, I thought you would give it up but you seriously went back at the past trends stuff. Man, I know everyone here likes to think they're the best, but markets are more efficient than "I can look up some info thats been out for years and beat the market"

Dang man, now I'm starting to wonder if you have even taken a business course in general, ever. You probably don't even understand what I'm saying

>> No.721070

>>721065
I'll give you 1/10,since you did get a reply

Be more subtle next time. The reddit language gives you away too fast

>> No.721078

>>721070

Never browsed reddit in my life man but you seem to be good at identifying the language

If you were at all interested in this industry though, you should listen to what I'm saying. At least do some research into what people mean when they say efficient markets. Markets aren't perfectly efficient and they never will be, but damn are they close, and how close they are is what makes most of what you're saying quite wrong

I hope thats a strong enough hint, but to be honest if you really want to learn you should just go to college

>> No.721081

>>720998
You literally just looked at their stock and point out the highest point and the point before it.

Literally anyone could do that. Literally anyone could do what you just did. Thats fantastic.

>> No.721082

>>721078
0/10 Apply yourself

None of what you just said has anything to do with the op buying the stock or any of the points I made . All you have done is typed a bunch of vague and over generalized bullshit and ad homs to try to hide the fact that you have no clue what you're taking about

>> No.721085

>>720783

Investing in consumer-oriented companies is generally a bad idea. Would you invest in Best Buy or EA? I wouldn't given that the margins are comparatively small against larger companies (ala GE) and they can easily fall out of fashion and die.

>>720787

You know videogames, not investing. Nintendo stock is cheap at $15 because the expected return is very low. And given that Nintendo's future is uncertain, investing in them is stupid. At least Microsoft has government contracting, and Sony sells insurance. Nintendo just makes an underpowered prebuilt netflix box. Even Lowe's has a higher price per share, about $75.

>> No.721086

>>720831

what "lead"? Nintendo isn't leading anything. Their handhelds are outsold 10:1 by smartphones and their consoles are dead last in a dying console market. Sega is already on their deathbed, being a glorified patichnko company, and Atari only exists due to their trademarks.

>> No.721087

>>720989

bigger =! profitable

just look at Sears, huge company but lol if you think they'll be around in five years

>> No.721093

>>721082
>All you have done is typed a bunch of vague and over generalized bullshit
It's not vague you just don't understand it lol. It's actually quite basic. You claim that past information can tell you how a stock will perform in the future, and I have provided multiple points detailing why that is financially unsound. You on the other hand seem to think that if you continue to spout memes you'll gain some sort of credibility....

>> No.721099

>>721093

How about you actually read what I said. I never claimed that you could predict the future based on past performance.

I said that Nintendo's stock has remained roughly the same for almost 8 years, then had huge bump that lasted for only two years. Now their stock has returned to roughly what it previously was. Combine this with the current poor financial situation of the company, and it's extremely unlikely that the stock will rise within the next two years.

You have completely fucking embarrassed yourself with your complete lack of reading comprehension and reddit tier arguing.

Your mother would be very disappointed with you if she weren't busy cucking your dad with a nigger.

>> No.721142

>>720783
>wants to invest
>first stock thought of is Nintendo
Kek

>> No.721144

>>720783
I don't think you understand what market valuation is. A stock price does not have to have a strong correlation with how well them company is doing if the stock is generally overvalued high.

Once you understand that you will know there's no point in investing until the stock shows improvement and breaks major resistance levels. It just seems like you are biased because you like them.

Honestly sometimes product hype does more for the stocks than sales sometimes depending on the company. I'm not saying a larger cash flow won't lead to a higher stock price, it usually does. The thing is it doesn't always happen so you have to wait for confirmation it's going to make an stronger up move.

>> No.722333

Doing more research Nintendo partnered with Denga in order to develop mobile games. Should I actually invest in Denga? They are a smaller company and I feel like the sales would impact them more considering this fact. Not to mention their p/e is sitting at 18 compared to nintendos 100 something. Plus they wont be affected by Nintendos hardware problems since they only make mobile games. Stop me if Im wrong here or if I missed something?

>> No.722355
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722355

>>722333
Now you're starting to think right, but still have some issues.

>Won't be affected by Nintendo's hardware problems
If they're partnered with Nintendo, their expected gains are based on Nintendo's continued gains.

Still, it's a decent idea for a first timer. Unfortunately, this will give you proof of what we already said: if it's been announced, it's already in the stock prices.

The company you're talking about is DeNA, a mobile developer in Japan. When their announcement was made in early March, their company stock went from $1,400 per share to $2,650 per share, and it's actually starting to come down from that high ($2,550 right now) so any gains from that partnership were gone a month ago.

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=dena+stock

You're starting to think /biz/ instead of thinking /v/, but millions of people already think /biz/. As soon as the announcement was made, people starting buying in bulk. As soon as people started buying in bulk, demand was raised. As demand was raised, and supply stayed the same, prices shot up.

You're learning, so good on you. Keep it up and you can make money off the next chance.

>> No.722361

>buying overvalued video game stocks

Just buy Microsoft, since they actually have good businesses (Xbox isn't one of them) that produce a ton of cash flow.

>> No.722363

>>722355
I think what Im saying is that investors are actually under expecting. The reason the stock is steady is because the games are still being developed theres no actual sales happening. Once they start pumping out games at the end of December and next year we will start seeing higher profits for Dena and surely that means growth and happiness for all right?

The mobile game industry is huge I mean damn theres was a super bowl ad for an app thats crazy. Not to mention the industry is still going to grow considering everyone has a smart phone.

Looking a year down the road or two doesnt this seem like a golden investment?

>> No.722367

>>722361
My issue with them is Windows 8 and 10 suck nobody likes their software since 7. The Xbox One is failing in China and the PS4 seems to being dominating abroad as well.

Ive been over to countless friends homes and none of them own one. They all own a PS4. Granted its a big company and its probably got lots of other things I only know video games and I dont think I'd go for the rest of the company.

>> No.722373

>>722363
One thing strikes me as odd about your post.

>The reason the stock is steady
The stock isn't steady, it shot up $900/share in the last month to account for predicted profits of the games they're working on. Like another anon said, predicted revenue affects a stock just as much as current revenue does.

The current stock price, already adjusted to the partnership, is projected based off of what the company is considered to be worth within the next fiscal year. It's already taken into account the extra business that DeNA will receive AND the assumption that it will do well, as it's done well for years and a partnership with Nintendo should improve its performance.

It has to release its products and have them be successful just to remain even with its current pricing; it would have to do extremely well to surpass it.

You can buy now, you really can. Look at your finances and dump as much as you feel necessary into DeNA now if you believe in your analysis. At the worst, it will be a learning experience. At the best, you make money.

>> No.722374

>>722367
Microsoft is pulling an IBM and focusing on cloud at the moment, Office365 is huge with corporations and its just one of their products.

>> No.722378

>>720783
I got in when they were at 14 and I waited for a long time with no movement. Mobile jump let me get out with a nice pay day and I'm staying away from that fucker until it's under 10

>> No.722380

>>722367
Video game consoles are a lower margin, relatively insignificant part of Microsoft's business.

Microsoft makes a killing on licenses and software. They have a virtual monopoly no matter how shitty their OS is. As Bill Gates once pointed out, you know what's the second most popular OS behind Windows? Pirated Windows.

What I'm telling you is Microsoft is a good business despite Xbox, not because of it. In contrast, Sony is a shitty business despite PS4's success. You seem to be set on putting money into certain companies simply because you like video games, and that's fine if you're just treating this as a vicarious hobby, but if you actually want to make money you should consider the valuation, prospects, and long-term competitive advantages of a company.

>> No.722395

>>722373
Forgive me I was referring to after the increase.

I'm starting to understand it now, its literally the expectations of stock holders and if they cant match that then it goes down. I guess it made sense and was always apparent the light bulb just didn't come on until now haha.

But at this point I've been considering this year and next year as well. They are only releasing one game this year theres probably going to be a bunch of games next year.

Are investors only considering 2015s performance and its numbers or are they looking ahead as well?

>> No.722400

>>722395
>Are investors only considering 2015s performance and its numbers or are they looking ahead as well?
This varies depending on where we are in the cycle. Generally at high points investors are confident (complacent?) and assume more and more earnings. I would bet 3-5 years of earnings assumptions are in play at this point. During a crisis it's more like a quarter.

>> No.722403

>>722395
The company pays millions in upkeep annually (leases on huge buildings, licensing costs, advertising, salaries) (DeNA had a net worth of 1.8 billion before the partnership), so they need to keep producing games to stay even with their annual costs. That being said, it should even out in a few weeks or months and then steadily increase with the stock market.

You could make worse purchases, so go for it. You'll need at least $2,600 to buy a single share though.

>> No.722408

>>722380
My issue is that I dont know these things. I suppose research is required to really get in to it. The thing is I've been into games for so long I can predict which ones are going to flop and which aren't at this point come review time and sales. I figure I'd try to make money off of my foresight. But I think perhaps foresight just might be a hobby of mine in general and learning this business of stocks might be a lot of fun.

>> No.722417

>>722400
>>722403
Lots of things to consider that I clearly have not been. The stock isn't going anywhere anytime soon so I have some months ahead to study all of this before the real crunch time.

Thanks for the help everyone, its been very well, helpful haha.