[ 3 / biz / cgl / ck / diy / fa / ic / jp / lit / sci / vr / vt ] [ index / top / reports ] [ become a patron ] [ status ]
2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance


View post   

File: 24 KB, 759x582, sp500.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
707367 No.707367 [Reply] [Original]

Do you think we are in a bubble. Are we gonna crash again like in 2007 soon?

>> No.707379

>>707367
Hello, I am new to business.

could you please explain to me what a bubble is and what factors contribute to the creation and then destruction of a bubble?

Am I right in thinking a bubble is a period of stimulated growth followed by a falling off when the loans come due and we find not all the growth was productive?

>> No.707382

>>707367
It will gradually go to 8539 points, the crash completely back down to 1000. You heard it here first.

>> No.707386

Yes.

No.

Maybe.

>Is OP a faggot

Yes.

No.

Maybe.

>Yes

>> No.707391

Yes, a bubble. Crash in 2 years tops. It will also be a lot worse than the last one because interest rates can't be lowered much from negative.

>> No.707392

>>707391
Germany and Switzerland is finding a way

>> No.707394

>>707391
All depends on the REAL interest rate faggot

>> No.707404

>>707391

depends on what the interest rate is in a year or two if the crash takes that long to happen.
I think we are in a recession in terms of corporate profitability and PE... (which is not a real recession) but we are certainly going to see dropping profits, which will cause PE to rise. The Market will react to higher PE and lower profitability by correcting. That will happen in the next 6 months.

We will trade mostly sideways or down over the next year.

At the moment I don't see what would cause a crash.

Some people have speculated that third world borrowing and subsequent defaults from a rising dollar valuation could cause some panic and crashy sort of activity... but i don't know what the real size of that impact would be.

others have stated that war could drive a crash.. but i don't see us getting involved in any of the potential conflicts around the globe right now, and war is generally good for stocks anyway.


I think the biggest threats right now are lowered profitability starting a sell off, that may coincide with a bit of deflation. we are certainly in a dis-inflationary period right now. whether that will cross into deflation is yet to be seen. Ms. Yellen raising rates this year could certainly cause it. If you see profitability fall, and a sell off and deflation at the same time... hold onto your butts. it could easily be the making of the next recession if consumer confidence falls.

right now i am long sp500 because the average time between the fed raising rates and a recession is 15 months. so i figure we are a year out from the next recession.


if you look at the "inverted yeild rate" rule for recessions though, we are in uncharted territory. because we've never had the front end of rates this low.. so it is really hard to tell what inverted looks like right now. 30 year yeilds are certainly historically low... and thats not a good sign. if yellen was to raise out rates to even as low as 2% right now - we would be inverted.

>> No.707409

>>707367
I dearly hope not of course it fucking would after I just put 7k in yesterday.

I have heard whispers online about a crash, so many indicators look frightening. One thing that sticks out is the weakness of Ford car sales. They should be doing better.

>> No.707430

>>707367
Boom and bust (bubble then bubble bursting if you will) are features of our financial systems and institutions. If we're not in a bust we're in a boom and vice versa. So yeah, we're in a bubble right now but we lack any sort of structure and stability and have exhausted ourselves trying to recover from the last one. Another bust is inevitable and will be extremely severe.

>>707379

If you're interested in learning more then I recommend looking into some of the writings of Hyman Minsky, particularly "Minsky's financial instability hypothesis". Quick wiki link here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment

Helps explain out "boom/bust" economic growth trends and why we're doomed to repeat them.

Also, although it may be a tad advance have a look at Modern Monetary Theory and Thomas Picketty for more on the subject.

>> No.707434

>>707367

Depends what country you reside in, and what industry you work in.

In the US, we're clearly inside a student loan bubble for colleges, a possible second housing bubble and definitely a second dotcom bubble. However, you likely won't be effected much if you don't work in education or construction. But it's also heavily regional. And the second dotcom bubble effects primarily Silicon Valley itself, because dotcom bubble 2 exists due to extremely loose VC investors, most notably the ones on Sand Hill Road. When the bubble inevitably pops, all those investors will be bankrupt (because they won't have any means to liquify their now worthless assets) as will many companies in the bay area. Meanwhile, the ones that actually are profitable will just eject to lower-tax states like Texas and Washington like they've been doing for the past decade. Even Philly, which was a huge shithole just a decade ago, is gentrifying due to biotech companies (many of whom are Californian) moving in. Same for NYC.

Worldwide, China is entering a recession (which is why oil prices are low, because their demand has dropped) which is very bad news given that they have a huge housing bubble (ala what the US did in 2001-2008) which will either cause a complete collapse of their country (what Stratfor predicts) or will shrek their middle class as Beijing is forced to print their way out. Brazil is entering a recession as well because of Dilma and the EU project is falling apart as people slowly realize that the grexit is inevitable. Should Greece leave, confidence in the EU will take a huge shit just as Spain, Portugal, Italy, France and the UK want out.

>> No.707495

>>707367
No.

>> No.707531

oh yea, there will be another crash, but people will be aware of it and be ready for it.

instead of being caught with your pants down, you'll be caught with your pants at your ankle.

>> No.707537
File: 280 KB, 666x666, 1393471800425.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
707537

>mfw the entire western world is gonna end up like Japan in the next decade

>> No.707707

>>707367
im a beginner

right now im practicing with the simulator on howthemarketworks.com

with the market being down is this a good time to buy up stocks ?

cause this is what i did using $1500 practice money i bought a ton of penny stocks ranging from 11cents to 53cents which had monthly highs from $7-$13

>> No.707724

>>707707
If you are reffering to the American market, no the market is not running low right now? In general it is always good to invest when the market is down, buy low and sell high...but what are you referring to? Oil?

>> No.707745

>all these newfags praying for a crash
this is why it won't happen

>> No.707755

We're in less of a bubble than we think, but more of a bubble than we know.

I'm at piece, I'm the man
Buying stocks on the day of the crash

>> No.707760

I could see a crash occurring caused by black-box hiccups. It's happened a few times in the past. I think it would just be a short term thing of a possible 20 - 30% correction. I'd liken it to "Black Monday" in 1987.

I think the even bigger risk would be trading flat over a long period of time. As markets become more efficient and banks face increasing regulation, it's hard for me to imagine us seeing the same fluctuations in the market we've seen in the past.

Another major worry is housing prices. Rental and home ownership prices are increasing beyond the reach of an average American family. With a ~$50k average household income and the 3x salary home price rule of thumb =$150k house purchase price, financially responsible home ownership is becoming less possible.

The obvious negative implication is that banks offer looser lending requirements which increases demand for housing and hence pricing continues to increase which would lead to more defaults ect.

The other thing I have my eye on is how the senior citizens which nothing in savings will deal with retirement.

>> No.707775

>>707760
>Another major worry is housing prices. Rental and home ownership prices are increasing beyond the reach of an average American family. With a ~$50k average household income and the 3x salary home price rule of thumb =$150k house purchase price, financially responsible home ownership is becoming less possible.

People don't seem to want to talk about this.. but the price of houses in most american markets are past where they were "unaffordable" in 2007.

I'm surprised we aren't hearing about another wave of foreclosures. I suppose tighter lending requirements have, so far, kept us out of the shitter.


>The obvious negative implication is that banks offer looser lending requirements which increases demand for housing and hence pricing continues to increase which would lead to more defaults ect.

This is definitely already happening. We are back to 3% down loans already. I banks are being more careful about how they write their paper though still... We aren't in the retarded 07 era anymore for lending.. but we are headed back to looser lending again.

It's worth watching. I don't see the housing market going up much more - the only thing keeping it propped is the 3.8% mortgage rates starts to make things affordable. The second Yellen raises interest rates mortgage rates will start back up.. and you can kiss the housing market good bye. a person that can afford a 500k house at 3.9% can only afford a 450k house at 4.9%. If rates were allowed to travel up to a more historic average rate of 6.5% to allow the banks to finally return to profitability - that same person would only be able to afford 360k worth of house..

I'm actually sort of hoping for this scenario because watching mortgaged assholes end up underwater is a favorite past time of mine, along with paying cash for depressed real estate...

>> No.707786

>>707760

>The other thing I have my eye on is how the senior citizens which nothing in savings will deal with retirement.

For a long time people have worried about the baby boomers retiring and drawing their money out of the stock market. decreased demand for stocks would naturally lead to decreasing gains, or losses in the stock market.

There is some research that shows that ultra rich folk, international interest, and the millenials may actually offset the booomers. also.. the boomers haven't saved as much as people think.. the millenials are saving money more than previous generations, from having watched first hand what happens to debtors when they get proper fucked... this means that if they all decided to try and earn a return on the money right as they enter their prime earning/saving years in a couple years here.. we could actually see the markets do ok.

What you have to worry about a bit more, perhaps, is the US Govt budget and how it will pay for all those boomers. because while they sure as shit haven't saved enough, they are counting on social security.

My take is that the govt will have to raise tax rates, and maybe even have to start going after people's 401ks. This is why i dump my money into the open market, and i buy and sell often. I pay my current tax on my current gains. This way if the government ever decides they want to increase my taxes, they can't claim that I have to pay a higher rate... because i don't have much capital gains - that haven't already been taxed. I'm worth net 500k and its already all been taxed and it's all mine. I have employer sponsored and matched 401k that i take advantage of for the match.. but when the government decides to increase taxes to 50% and I'm in a really high tax bracket, when I start drawing that money out in 40 years... i'm going to be glad that I also have a couple million sitting in the market, already full taxed. at the lower rates of my younger years.

>> No.707848

>>707404
It only needs a slight raise in interest rates for stocks to get royally fucked.
If you disagree then you need to educate yourself ASAP about discount rates. The only reason stocks are this high is because no returns elsewhere i.e. a bubble.

>> No.707849

>>707760
I have a funny feeling that next monday is going to be a Black Monday again. Probably loss of 1200-1700 points.

I still feel crazy so I have this share in Apple, its lost about 90 bucks, if it goes down another percentage I'm out, if it goes up and makes me a profit I'm out. However if it goes break even, fuck it. I just really want to hold and pray on preorders of the Watch possibly driving it up to 145.

>> No.707915

>bubble
NOPE
WE NOT IN A BUBBLE
10 years ago we were only at 1500 and now were at 2000

>> No.707919

>>707745
logic where?

>> No.707929

>>707367
If you want bubble, don't just look at the stock market. Look at the long term chart for interest on government bonds. Then consider that these are supposed to be the principal "risk free" assets on which everything else is priced contingent, so a blow-up there would make waves unlike everything else before.

>> No.707934

>>707919
Because the only way for a crash to happen is if nobody thinks it will, because it means that no money is left on the sidelines to bail everyone out when the stocks fall. If everybody is having a good time and has total confidence in the market that means everybody is all in and the market breaks under the pressure of all the big money shorting it. Did you ever wonder why all the stocks seem to go up and down on the same days.

>> No.707938

>>707934
I agree insofar as many people now instinctivly distrust this current bull market, ie. I don't get the same sense of irrational exuberance as with the last two boombusts ("Dotcoms, yay!" and "house prices will never go down" respectively).

Everybody "smart" (and not a paid advertiser for the status quo) knows the market isn't built on fundamentals anymore but central bank policy, and they're nervous. Now, that doesn't mean it will break down tomorrow, or that it can't go much further. I'm not in the business of timing those things I just hedge accordingly

>> No.708300

>>707786
>the millenials are saving money more than previous generations
kek.

Millennials are net SPENDERS, not savers (negative savings rate), and overall savings rates are lower now than they were in the 70's, 80's and 90's.

The boomers are going to be fine. It the milennials that are fucked beyond repair.

>> No.708301

The market is pricing in the post-Obozo era.

>> No.708413

>>707775

I get where you're at, but I think we're still a while away from another real estate crash. I'm not even sure if it would really affect my market in SF, because there are too many shitheads still buying 750k+ houses in all cash, even though the median hh income is closer to 75k in this area.

All I know is that unless all these tech companies go up, I don't see much changing in this area, although this "drought" could change things too.

>> No.708462

>>708413

Why are people buying $750k homes in cash when they know that rising interest rates are coming?

It would be beneficial to wait for interest rates to rise which will cause home prices to drop since they don't have to worry about financing their purchase. When people do unreasonable things, it can be a sign of a bubble (I'm looking at you 2007).

Salaries are high, valuations on tech companies are high, and housing prices are high. I think the real worry here is the domino effect of shit hitting the fan. If there is a tech bubble that causes salaries to drop, then people could not longer afford their mortgage payments which would cause a real estate home price collapse. The question is how large would the correction be and how much of a ripple effect we would see across asset classes.

The thing is, if you ask the average investor (in the know) which sector they believe is most likely to face a bubble, I'm betting most would say tech. And that's troubling because even if tech has a minor pull back, fear is going to hit the market incredibly fast as people rush to get out of their tech stocks. This effect could turn an 8% correction into a 35% flash-crash. From there, who knows what will happen. Of course this is all my own speculations but hey, it could happen.

>> No.708543
File: 37 KB, 912x582, 1427919020223.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
708543

It will be something like this OP

>> No.708547

>>708462
Chinese pay cash for home in the US, especially southern ca. They don't give a shit about interest rate.

>> No.708558

>>708462
I agree tech is the next thing to pop, but not general tech. A lot of the hardware players, Palo Alto, Cisco, Ubiquity, Rukus, etc are still very solid companies. What IS going to pop is this whole app market and these fringe software players for things like remote access, "productivity" software, etc

We live in a day and age where King (Candy Crush) IPOs at a 7 BILLION dollar valuation... for a one and done game app company. I could go on and on. Twitter (3 Billion) Facebook (24 Billion) Alibaba, Box, Grubhub, Pandora, Zynga... all multi BILLION dollar IPOs...for what? There is nothing backing these prices, no future outlook that justifies it. That is the tech people are talking about.

While a lot of that is CA based, Cali has generally been the domain of the big hardware tech companies. Cali tends to make the products other people's software runs on which should insulate it a bit. I actually see this next tech bubble hurting non-domestic markets worse than the US (King for example is a UK based company. Alibaba is Chinese, etc)

>> No.708559

>>708558
this guy gets it

>> No.708574

>>708558
but it wont cause a major selloff
the entire market needs to be overpriced

>> No.708578 [DELETED] 
File: 376 KB, 1376x926, 3.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
708578

>>708543

>> No.708588

>>708558

the app market is going to get a boom thanks to the cell companies losing their grounds. you'll see loads of wifi services pop up that feature their own call app or text app since everything will be done through wifi networks while the cellular networks will only provide a fallback.

what has popped is the shale industry.

>> No.708592

>>708574

No it wont, nor did the first Dot Com bubble for the most part. I also dont see it hitting tech in general like it did before. Back in 99-00 you seen a "run for the hills" mentality where even financially stable companies lost huge amounts of money because people were so scared.

It would be much more along the lines of tech losing 30-40% and the general market correcting 5-10% just from the loss on the NASDAQ. Large healthy companies will certainly lose value, but you wont see Apple take a hit like Cisco did in 99. THAT would cause a market panic as so many funds eat tech up, especially Apple

>> No.708594

>>708588

reread what I said. I didnt say apps themselves would disappear tomorrow. The large app based companies who IPO for billions of dollars based on junk code, a fly by night business model, and little else...they will be dead in very short order.

Facebook and Twitter, whether you believe it or not, will some day become near worthless like Myspace is today. King is going to make Zynga's fall from grace look downright pleasant.

The only real bright spot I see in tech is all the *** As a Service companies. THEY I believe will be the future, and also the death of in-house IT departments, but thats another topic

>> No.708599
File: 588 KB, 1376x926, 4.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
708599

>>708543

>> No.708617

>>708599
QE is over though, at least in the US

>> No.708619

>>707367
of course it's a bubble, just remember - be the first one to exit, not the last.

>> No.708622

>>708617
Doesn't matter - the market knows that based Yellen has it's back in case of rough times. The promise of safety is just as good as actual safety.

>> No.708628

>>708622
This.

>> No.708642

>>708617

Saying that for some reason made a lightbulb go off in my head...

QE in the US has lasted 7 years... imagine what 7 years of QE will do the the Euro! Europe will be using the equivalent of the Yen.

Oh how much was your 2022 Ford Focus RS?

I got a really good deal, it was only 38 million Euro

>> No.708645

>>708622
QE TILL INFINITY

>> No.708659
File: 40 KB, 435x512, 1427947948020.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
708659

>>708642

>> No.708661
File: 35 KB, 457x376, 1426896318642.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
708661

>>708642
>Tfw anyone holding Euro in cash is literally getting assfucked

Feels good to be American

>> No.708721

>>708558

This one post sums up everything I feel about the current situation. When I think of a tech company, I think about ARM or someone. When other people talk about "tech" companies they are talking about Stripe, DropBox, Zynga or some shit. It is ALWAYS from California and ALWAYS has a one-word, dynamic-sounding name. This shit has to stop, pls crash.

>> No.708738

what's with all the software doomsayers?

You guys don't like intangible services/products?

>> No.708747

So where are people putting their money if they think a correction is coming? I'm thinking discount retail stores like Walmart. Things go to shit, people get desperate and start shopping at cheaper stores.

>> No.708761

>>708747
SWHC, because civil war

>> No.708850

>>708761

While I actually don't disagree because SWHC has some financials so rock solid the earth could be mounted on them much like ATK (also may I mention RGR), I say if you are truly worried about what is coming you would be moving more towards traditional investments (bonds) or super safe if you think it is tomorrow (CDs)

A correction is coming. It might be large depending, but if your financials are in order, if you have played right, you dont have much to worry about.

Dont invest in junk because there is a large upside. Invest in solid established companies (and I dont mean established in 2005) and you really dont have much to fear.

The is also the old adage that really is true, invest in the big 3 recession proof industries and let morals be damned. Alcohol, Tobacco, and firearms. Even the most broke, unemployed person in the country will buy them during the darkest hours.

Look at TAP. Even if you bought at its height in 2008 you have made a 20% return since then with very nice dividends. RGR, bought at the height in 2007 and sold at its worst in 2014? You still made a 200% profit

In closing, dont play the game like a VC guy, you dont have the tens of millions to lose, even if that turns into hundreds of millions. Play it safe like a retiree. Invest in good solid companies who will always exist. I hate to put it this way, but what will be around longer? Guns or Facebook?

>> No.708862

>>708642
Why would that be the case when US QE didn't make any extraordinary change to the exchange rate? From what I gather, Drahgi is only printing enough to stay ahead of deflation. The general mood in the ECB is to avoid printing as much as possible.

>> No.708869

>>708862

The main difference is the US printed money to keep its economy going. The Fed printed money that went to banks that eventually made it back to the Gov in taxes. It was a closed cycle. The problem with Euro QU is that its basically Germany/France printing money, it is going to places like Spain and Greece, and falling off the map. Its an open flow of cash out of the EU

The US basically printed money to pay creditors with fake money. The EU is basically paying itself with fake money... it is pretty much the worst accounting you could imagine, but at this point, they try it, or go off the cliff anyway

>> No.708875

>>707379
opinions. that's what runs everything

>> No.708880

>>708869
I can't understand anything your saying.

>Its an open flow of cash out of the EU
How? Every country you mentioned is in the EU and Eurozone.

>The US basically printed money to pay creditors with fake money.
What creditors? Printed money is still real money. There's nothing "fake" about it.

>The EU is basically paying itself with fake money
I'm not entirely sure what the difference is. The ECB is buying government bonds with the printed money. I believe they also used money the printed a few years ago to bail out some banks. The US/Fed did exactly the same thing.

>> No.708888

>>708880

>How? Every country you mentioned is in the EU and Eurozone.

Think of it like this. The US is a country. The EU is a whole bunch of countries promising to keep a promise. US QE went to US banks. EU QU is a German bank printing money and sending it to a Greek bank that has entirely different motives, creditors, and ultimately debts. In the US it was the Gov printing money it guaranteed, sending it to a bank, it guaranteed, and that bank paid off debt it acquired inside the country. A closed system. In the EU it is Germany printing money it guarantees, sending it to a Greek bank which has no real obligation to repay (look at current news) and repaying its debts it gained from places like Russian and Turkish banks/accounts. Germany prints it, guarantees it, gives it to Greece, and greece has to hand it off to people it needs to pay right now (Russian and Turkish banks and citizens)

>What creditors? Printed money is still real money. There's nothing "fake" about it.

Mostly China, though Japan is up there. However this is a major difference. Its an accounting trick. Do you know who the biggest holder of US debt is? The US Social Security Trust Fund. The government is paying itself with money it printed, that never entered the currency stream and hence, never had an effect on currency flow. Its all shifting numbers from one account to another that has no effect on the economy because it never entered the currency market.

>I'm not entirely sure what the difference is. The ECB is buying government bonds with the printed money. I believe they also used money the printed a few years ago to bail out some banks. The US/Fed did exactly the same thing.

Because EU QE is entering the currency stream and never coming back. The US was paying itself essentially and the money never left a government bank account in one shape or another.

>> No.708904

>>708888
>US QE went to US banks.
a lot of it was spent on buying tresury bonds and mortgage securities.
>EU QU is a German bank printing money and sending it to a Greek bank that has entirely different motives, creditors, and ultimately debts.
Where are you getting this? The ECB is not a german bank. The money they printed is being used to buy lots of EU bonds, not just greek afaik. It what sense is that money going to a greek bank? As a loan?
> (Russian and Turkish banks and citizens)
Huh? Last time i checked Greece owes almost all it's money to the ECB now. That's what the whole bailout was for.

>Mostly China, though Japan is up there
Last I checked the US debt is still expanding. I never read anything about either of those countries freezing US bond purchases.

>The government is paying itself with money it printed, that never entered the currency stream and hence, never had an effect on currency flow.
It enters the economy at large when the government starts spending it surely? How is that possibly anything like a closed system. One of the major goals of QE was to trigger inflation, which would be impossible if the system was "closed". Which it's not.

>Because EU QE is entering the currency stream and never coming back. The US was paying itself essentially and the money never left a government bank account in one shape or another.
I take it you don't know what your talking about. The ECB can take the money back simply by selling the bonds they bought with the printed money again, same for all the money the Fed printed. Except that's unlikely to work out so well.

You sound like you flat out made a bunch of stuff up.

>> No.709232

>>708888

The ECB is not buying bonds. The ECB is mandating National Central Banks to buy 80% of the bonds. National Central banks will take 100% of losses in the case of a default.

The outside holders of European debt will be the big losers here. Like china was the looser in US QE. European countries can now refinance their debt at ultra low borrowing costs, much lower than they would be able to get a loan from Russia or China.

>> No.709235

>>709232
Aren't the national central banks just part of the ECB anyways? The bonds are being bought with printed money anyways, so if there's a default, big whoop.

>> No.710439

I thought this thread was very insightful

>> No.711363

>>707409
You should have gone in 5 years ago brah. You'll lose everything.

Also
>entering the market right before summer
>ishygddt

>> No.711367

What skills and professions will be most in demand during the next crash?

>> No.711380
File: 238 KB, 960x651, 1da.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
711380

>>711367
Wizards, sorcery in general and harbingers of doom.

If you only knew how bad things really are.

>> No.711386

>>711380
So auditors/accountants? :^)

>> No.711391

>>711386
Repo man is probably the safest bet.

>> No.711397

>>707434
>>>707367 (OP)
>Depends what country you reside in, and what industry you work in.
>In the US, we're clearly inside a student loan bubble for colleges, a possible second housing bubble and definitely a second dotcom bubble. However, you likely won't be effected much if you don't work in education or construction. But it's also heavily regional. And the second dotcom bubble effects primarily Silicon Valley itself, because dotcom bubble 2 exists due to extremely loose VC investors, most notably the ones on Sand Hill Road. When the bubble inevitably pops, all those investors will be bankrupt (because they won't have any means to liquify their now worthless assets) as will many companies in the bay area. Meanwhile, the ones that actually are profitable will just eject to lower-tax states like Texas and Washington like they've been doing for the past decade. Even Philly, which was a huge shithole just a decade ago, is gentrifying due to biotech companies (many of whom are Californian) moving in. Same for NYC.
>Worldwide, China is entering a recession (which is why oil prices are low, because their demand has dropped) which is very bad news given that they have a huge housing bubble (ala what the US did in 2001-2008) which will either cause a complete collapse of their country (what Stratfor predicts) or will shrek their middle class as Beijing is forced to print their way out. Brazil is entering a recession as well because of Dilma and the EU project is falling apart as people slowly realize that the grexit is inevitable. Should Greece leave, confidence in the EU will take a huge shit just as Spain, Portugal, Italy, France and the UK want out.
>>707434
What do you guys think the catalyst will be for a major downward correction/crash? Timing wise, when do you expect it to materialize?

>> No.711521

>>708904
>>708888
Thing is: Greece is the only Eurozone member which doesn't quality for QE.
The ECB refuses to buy Greece government bonds unless a deal is reached regarding the Troika bailout.
So, you see the Eurozone states financing themselves at less than 1% over 10yrs, and Greece paying 12,50%.

I don't really see where they wanna go with this policy; however I'm holding onto my feta bonds just in case they resolve their dispute.

>> No.711541

>>711521
>feta bonds

kek

>> No.711977

>>707382
That makes some sense, but now that I have seen this future, it will not be.

Market forces are cannibalistic.

>> No.711989

Historically the market's always come back up. What's the point of withdrawing your money in the interim if you're not going to use it?

The loss is only realized if you cash out.

>> No.711998
File: 414 KB, 1024x768, tinfoilhat.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
711998

> mfw zerohedge will finally be right after 7 years of bearshitting and being terribly wrong.
> mfw the geniuses are unleashed on CNBC next time the dow drops more than 300 points in a day
> mfw VIX goes above 20 and people start getting hernias.

>> No.712029

>>711989

You should withdraw and invest further down the hill

Of course it makes no sense to sell out in the middle of a popped bubble, because you won't get much to play around with, but if you manage to sell out during the first couple of weeks, you will be able to buy more shares of what you sold a month or two later

Look at every stock during 2008-2009, they did not fall 40-80% in a week, it took months for the bottom to be found

>> No.712041

>>712029
> timing the market
> ever a good idea.

No. The real answer is to just keep investing more of your money. You should never invest money you will need within the next 20 years. Dollar cost averaging is your friend.

>> No.712077

>>711998

>tinfoil hat
>hat

Isn't that basically an amplifier for signals?

>> No.712480

>>708661
get a load of this goyim

your dollars won't be shit once the rest of the world wakes up to the false recovery

>> No.712485

can't believe the amount of blatant ignorance going around here. I guess I see why the markets aren't reacting to horrible economic indicators like they should be. You guys are insane to think this isn't a bubble!

>> No.712491

>>712485
But every realtor is telling me that right now is the best time to buy! BUY BUY BUY.

>> No.712572

>>707537
>mfw.jpg when you try so hard to force your shitass meme badly done with photoshop onto our throats

Fucking cunt, gtfo my /biz/

>> No.712578

>>712480
And where will they sock the money for safety? The ever safe euro? The never manipulated yen which certaintly isnt in any danger from a realty bubble? The ruble?

>> No.712592

>>712578
>>>712480
>And where will they sock the money for safety? The ever safe euro? The never manipulated yen which certaintly isnt in any danger from a realty bubble? The ruble?
>>712578
The rupee carry trade is highly favorable at the moment.

>> No.712611

>>712592
>at the moment.
Doesnt = safe long term place for money

He insinuated the dollar was an unsound investment. I think reality says otherwise.

If the shit really did hit the fan id be interested to see where the money ends up as the current competition isnt really strong by any metric

>> No.712622

>>712611
>If the shit really did hit the fan id be interested to see where the money ends up as the current competition isnt really strong by any metric
>>712611

Excellent point. Chf maybe? Does eur become a safe haven if eur/usd reach parity?

>> No.712643

>>712611
It isn't strong because everyone wants dollars. Once the markets find out that Yellin won't be raising interest rates, or even doing QE 4, the dollar is going to tank. I've got my 20% in gold, and gold backed currencies will be the safe haven. People are gonna be waking up soon, and I rather look like a fool now who's not making out, than a fool later who didn't get out and fell flat on his face.

>> No.712648
File: 65 KB, 620x387, image.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
712648

I'll just keep changing my adjectives until they forget my original statement! Yea!

>> No.712674

>>712648
>I'll just keep changing my adjectives until they forget my original statement! Yea!
>>712648
Bad news = good news in this case huh
Is the biggest catalyst the next fomc mins release? If so, does it make sense to buy some s&p puts?

>> No.712677
File: 105 KB, 1210x929, splogadj.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
712677

>>707367
not aware of any major market risks, just some theories about the EU collapsing or the Chinese shadow banking system, most people have been aware of these risks for years so if something happens I don't think it will have as much impact as the housing bubble

In theory the unfettered market is inefficient to a certain degree but bubbles burst quickly unless there is outside influence or an unusual event (like new technology), when this happens you get something like the dotcom bubble and the housing bubble. The dotcom bubble didn't drag down the entire economy with it because speculators were mostly independent, not strongly linked to every other part of the economy

Your graph takes place over decades where inflation has a significant effect, Made this graph a while ago to factor in both inflation and use a logarithmic scale.

this is inflation adjusted on its own

http://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

The stock market crash happened in 2008 after the government couldn't decide what to do in the wake of lehman brother's bankruptcy, it actually took quite a pummeling before people started panic selling and people were aware of the problems in 2007

if I wasn't a pleb back then I think I would have switched to bonds long before the crash, though that might be survivor bias talking, I can imagine I might have played down the seriousness or failed to monitor the news daily and thoroughly research the situation

>> No.712684

>>707379
people invest because they think it will go higher

the price goes up but mainly because people are investing thinking it will go higher

others see the price rise and invest because they think it will go higher

eventually there are no more people willing to invest and the price increase

the price stops rising, people have probably heard rumors about it being a bubble and start selling

people see it going down and panic sell

There are some cases where this does not happen, for instance TSLA which has many fanatics who believe this is a very long term investment and have a "buy and hold" philosophy.

>> No.712694

>>712684

When other people panic sell and kill the price, then you can just start buying stock while it's cheap, right?

This 'self-fulfilling bubble' is sexy if you can see the trend coming, right?

>> No.712710

>>712694
Sounds easy in theory, right?

>> No.712716

>>712677
Economic data hasn't been as bad as the lehman brother's crisis. Why do people believe this cheerleading but don't see the same thing happening again?

>> No.712725

>>712716
since*

>> No.712731

Manufacturing down biggest amount since 2008.
The airs coming out of the bubble and if you think it's fast now, what do you think interest rates rising would do? The only thing propping this up is you idiots spending

>> No.712748
File: 588 KB, 1232x1232, bitcoin-logo-3d.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
712748

>>712578

>> No.712758 [DELETED] 

>>712716
I am not sure exactly what you mean by "cheerleading". I think you mean people saying that there will be a crash soon.

The credit crunch is still on people's minds today, as much as the 1929 stock market crash was on people's minds in 1936. People are on the look out for the next big crisis and when they see the S&P 500 graph after the 2013 and 2014 bull markets with the 2 preceding dotcom and housing bubble bumps it sets cogs whirring.

It is totally sensible to stay vigilant and look for potential market risks though.
>>712694
Many others have the same idea. Many of whom are pro analysts working for big hedge funds and whatnot and you are competing with them.

They will be better at determining when the market has reached the "bottom" than you are. They won't predict it with 100% accuracy but they will do a much better job and will likely price it in before you do.

So the stock market could stop falling and you could say "oh it's a lot lower now, I guess the panic is over", but then the onwards trend recovers and you have to sell quickly to mitigate your losses. Then it stops falling again and you say "it might not be over I'll wait", then while you are at McD's washing dishes the market could jump up suddenly and you will have missed your opportunity. Now that the panic is over the market will recover, slowly, it might still be a good time to buy but you won't make much more than the market average.

The only solution is to study, think, learn, develop your skills and knowledge.

>> No.712761

>>712716
Not sure what you mean by "cheerleading", do you mean people saying that there will be a crash soon?

The credit crunch is still on people's minds today, as much as the 1929 stock market crash was on people's minds in 1936. People are on the look out for the next big crisis and when they see the S&P 500 graph after the 2013 and 2014 bull markets with the 2 preceding dotcom and housing bubble bumps it sets cogs whirring.

It is totally sensible to stay vigilant and look for potential market risks though.
>>712694
Many others have the same idea. Many of whom are pro analysts working for big hedge funds and whatnot and you are competing with them.

They will be better at determining when the market has reached the "bottom" than you are. They won't predict it with 100% accuracy but they will do a much better job and will likely price it in before you do.

So the stock market could stop falling and you could say "oh it's a lot lower now, I guess the panic is over", but then the downwards trend recovers and you have to sell quickly to mitigate your losses. Then it stops falling again and you say "it might not be over I'll wait", then while you are at McD's washing dishes the market could jump up suddenly and you will have missed your opportunity. Now that the panic is over the market will recover, slowly, it might still be a good time to buy but you won't make much more than the market average.

The only solution is to study, think, learn, develop your skills and knowledge.

>> No.712813
File: 90 KB, 1075x604, Clipboard01.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
712813

This is a great thread.

I remember this thread from August 2011.
>Bubble
>Tulips
>Crash Imminent
>Overvalued, Overheated
>Propped up Markets

I remember the people who liquidated in August 2011.
>Whew!
>Got out before the floor disappeared
>We're headed down to normal levels

This went on for several weeks.
>Its gonna keep dropping
>Get out before its too late!
>You can always buy back later

Those people are very sad today. But that was a very fun thread.

>> No.712831

>>712578
Well judging by world banking it's going to the Chinese Dong.

>> No.713134

>>712813
>You can always buy back later
that sounds like something I would say, but I wasn't really posting much about the stock market in 2011

>> No.713170

>>712077

no it reflects them away

>> No.714459

>>707367
Who cares. If it crashes its time to buy.

>> No.714499

It's coming in about 3-4 years.

What's going to burst? The Derivative Bubble
My professor Rashad Abdel, from UIUC, says it's going to happen and the sheep in Washington are just going to bail the banks out again.

Last year the bubble was at 710 trillion

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-size-of-the-derivatives-bubble-hanging-over-the-global-economy-hits-a-record-high

>> No.714669

>>708543
i like this

>> No.714822

>>711391

What about starting up a Payday Loan or Car Loan company?

>> No.714836

>>714499

This website just looks like fear mongering snake oil salesmen trying to turn people's fear into cash. Look at the books they are advertising "the beginning of the end" "prepper's guide: the step-by-step guide to survive any disaster." Now I read the article and I can't say it's bullshit. But the author definitely has a vested interest in everyone thinking the world is on the verge of financial disaster so I can't help but think he is over exaggerating claims or fudging numbers.

>> No.716065

>>707379
If your looking for mre information on financial bubbles read irrational exuberance by shiller

here's the PDF, but its only the 1st edition
http://digamo.free.fr/shiller2000.pdf

>> No.716649

Everything is going to shit
if we get in a WW3 nuclear clusterfuck
wait for it