technical analysis

[Anonymous No.6676707]

does technical analysis work?

[Anonymous No.6676786]

>>6676707
Honestly it seems like meme garbage when it comes to predicting things.

[Anonymous No.6676820]

>>6676786
how much time have you spent looking into it?

[Anonymous No.6676947]

>>6676820
Honestly not a ton. I was interested in it but the little bit I looked into it the more it seemed like it's basically just as accurate at predicting shit as drawing any meme lines you want and claiming there's a pattern. I'd give it more time if a significant amount of the analysis I looked at actually panned out.

[Anonymous No.6677004]

but how do you know you were doing it right?

[Anonymous No.6677110]

Look up Renaissance Technologies, perhaps the most profitable hedge fund in American history. Averaged >35% annual returns for 20 years straight, including a 98% return in 2008 during the housing bubble. Their secret? They do absolutely no fundamental analysis, only technical.

If you're still convinced TA is bullshit, I don't know what to tell you.

[Anonymous No.6677163]

>>6676707
it doesn't work without lots of volume to support it. So for individual coins, it's typically useless. But for BTC/ETH and high volume periods for other coins, it is effective.

[Anonymous No.6677181]

>>6677110
They don't do TA retard. Algorithmic trading is very different than the tea leaf horoscope TA found on this board. Source: I work at a top 5 hedge fund.

[Anonymous No.6677208]

It's basically useless for an unregulated market, but sometimes it works if whales use it and put up walls at a support level, resistance level, etc.

[Anonymous No.6677247]

>>6677181

I'm not saying the retards drawing lines on charts on /biz/ are right. 99% of the charts I've seen are wrong. I'm saying TA as a concept works.

[Anonymous No.6677270]

>>6676947
Honestly?

[Anonymous No.6677286]

so what are the alternatives? like how do people make money daytrading crypto?

[Anonymous No.6677394]

>>6677286
Arbitrage is the only way to reliably make money daytrading in any market.

[Anonymous No.6677421]

>>6677394
ok, and besides that? like is there really that much arbitrage opportunity?

[Anonymous No.6677476]

>>6677421
Arbitrage opportunities are HUGE in crypto. The hedge funds that are entering crypto are doing so only because of the huge spread cross-pair and cross-exchange. In comparison, public markets have spreads that are 1/100000 of what is available in crypto markets.

[Anonymous No.6677497]

>>6677476
but like is it always liquid?

ok and is there anything besides arbitrage?

[Anonymous No.6677553]

>>6677497
Me & my contemporaries at hedge funds do not believe TA works. In our view, it is similar to horoscope reading. That is, people trying to decipher things that they don't fundamentally understand. The alternative to arbitrage is simple buy and hold.

[Anonymous No.6677573]

>>6677553
are you aware of wyckoff? if so what's your opinion?

[Anonymous No.6677659]

>>6677573
Yes familiar but empirically it's not real.

[Anonymous No.6677722]

>>6676707

Yes to a certain extent. Weekly MA20 is objectively THE line to follow for this rally.

[Anonymous No.6677821]

>>6677659
did you try doing it? or how do you know?

[Anonymous No.6677831]

>>6677181
you'd better be making some nice fat returns for your investors, my top 5 friend.

wouldn't want to let those management fees draw you much closer to the S&P500, and paid to sit and post here of all things

[Anonymous No.6677931]

>>6677821
I've worked at a top 5 hedge fund for almost 10 years. We constantly search for alpha opps and backtest every conceivable trading strategy.

[Anonymous No.6677953]

>>6677476
>>6677247

Can you guys tell me if I'm close:

Support works because those in possession of the asset refuse to sell below the support line (obviously) but it works in future instances because the people with the asset doesn't change that much. Long term the composition of those selling changes and they have different expectations for their assets so support changes.

Resistance is the same but with buying but also a self fulfilling prophecy because people expect the price will not go above the resistance line so sell below.

Momentum indicators just show when momentum doesn't match price movement so a trend reversal is coming.

RSI works because people generally want to buy the dip or sell at ATH so a breakout can only be sustained for so long until it becomes overbought or oversold and a reversal happens.

The above TA concepts make sense but I really cannot understand the random rainbow coloured shit /biz/ always posts. It really seems that the only reason that stuff works is because people think it will work so buy/sell accordingly. I can't relate the triangles and arcs that biz posts to the underlying cause of price action (people buying and selling).

t. Mathematician learning a bit of TA on the side

[Anonymous No.6677977]

>>6677831
The beauty of our model is we only get paid if we outperform.

[Anonymous No.6678163]

>>6677953
>>6677977

sir?

[Anonymous No.6678340]

>>6677953
You're onto it. Yes some of it is a self-fulfilling prophecy, and yes sometimes it doesn't work.
The idea is to use different indicators to give to a good 'guess' as to what will most likely happen next.

Even if using TA gives you a 51% chance of success, that's better than blindly buying and selling shit because of fomo.

[Anonymous No.6678438]

>>6678340

thanks friendo, currently I am just resistance trading on kucoin but they have retarded graphs (not alot of volume for alts) so its kind of difficult

went from $15 to $18 in a day

[Anonymous No.6678477]

>>6676707
Yes

[Anonymous No.6678508]

>>6678477
where did you learn it?

[Anonymous No.6678626]

>>6678438
It comes down to experience and various personal strategy. I like tradingview, but maybe you've tried it and saw it sometimes doesn't have lesser known coins.

>>6678477
if you wait to buy after it breaks out you can decide if you want to short or go long

[Anonymous No.6678670]

>>6678477
>top right
meme or not, you decide

[Anonymous No.6678719]

>>6676707
There's a famous story about Warren buffet using a SPY ETF vs some high brow hedge fund manager and the best TA Money can buy.... HODL wins in the long run

[Anonymous No.6678734]

>>6678508
from various web sources combined with historical data

>>6678626
I was talking about the big ascending wedge in the top left, not the pattern on the right (which broke downward due to many people spreading FUD about Kucoin on their reddit)

[Anonymous No.6678773]

>>6678626
yeah man, I'm using tradingview on kucoin, definitely my go-to charting system. I'm currently pretty much all in ADST and its a pain trying to do TA on cryptopia's charts

[Anonymous No.6678785]

>>6676707
About 50%. the more historical data the better. it really doesn't work much in prediticting how far the price action will moon IMO.

That's the reason why it kinda works really well in forex, stocks with a year of historical data but not for newly developed coin etc.

[Anonymous No.6678813]

so i've seen some paid telegram groups that like do coin predictions. they seem to be surprisingly right and they all seem to be TA. what gives?

[Anonymous No.6678842]

>>6678719
This unironically

[Anonymous No.6678889]

>>6676947
nice you seem very experienced and knowledgeable

[Anonymous No.6679203]

Short Answer = NO.

Long Answer = It depends on how you use it. If a stock has been slowly tending upwards over the past few years. No bad news coming, and company is stable. Then, you can expect the rising trend to continue. So, look at the past few weeks of the graph. What is the average price? Let's say $5 is the middle, median high is $6 and median low is $4. Is the asking price near the median low? If Yes then buy. If it's above what you paid then sell or hold.

In other words
Buy low and sell high.
Don't panic sell or panic buy.
Don't reply to this post or.
Your mom will die in her sleep.

[Anonymous No.6679273]

>>6678719
Hedge funds don't use TA