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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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646121 No.646121 [Reply] [Original]

http://a.msn.com/r/2/AA9eysb?a=0&m=en-us

Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, predicted that oil prices would bottom during the second quarter of the year "simultaneously to one of the expirations of the WTI contracts."

He noted that there were about 500,000 wells in the U.S. that produced fewer than 15 barrels of oil a day. "We're gonna fill up in storage, and it doesn't appear that there's any way around that," Kloza said.

He warned that the price of West Texas Intermediate crude could be in the $30s at some point in the second quarter.

"The big fields have not been shut in"

"The WTI brent spread could widen to 10. This should be good for refineries in the gulf"

>people claiming we bottomed already

>> No.646698

I sure hope it crashes tomorrow : )

>> No.646700

I feel bad for all the American Oil Rig Workers. But damn, I can't say that I'm not enjoying it.

>> No.646705

>>646700
Fucking oil rig workers

Pray for the supply chain(me ;_;)

god bless

>> No.646775

>>646700
Me too.

I started looking into jobs because my cousin was saying he was making bank and a couple weeks later the market for it crashed. He lost his job and now all I'm seeing is "5000 jobs to go" and all that.

>> No.646783

>>646121
So.. when it does bottom (somewhat), and you buy in, how much can you expect to make?

What's a good ETF for this kind of stuff?

>> No.646809

I buy it. The last inventories report was record high.

I think all these firms are pumping like mad to maintain cash flows and service debt

>> No.646812

>just wait! oil is going to fall to $5 a barrel! bitcoin all over again!
>j-just wait! it'll happen s-soon!

you faggots are never right about anything

>> No.646813

>>646121
>move to Oklahoma they said
>100k a year they said

>> No.646819

>>646812
You retarded bro? Most people last week and even monday were saying it would keep rising and we bottomed. Only a few people called that it would at least test the bottom again

>> No.646955

>>646700

>implying they didn't make enough to survive the layoff
>feeling bad for people who put themselves in a shitty situation by blowing all their money on pointless shit

lel

>> No.646962

>>646819
All the guests on cnbc say different things. Who knows what oil is doing? Just buy good value stocks and forget about oil.

>> No.646969

If the shut-down price of most shale producers is $50, then the long run minimum per barrel will probably be around 65-70, where the most efficient shale producers can produce. Any higher and more shale producers will enter, and lower and shale disappears and we inch towards pre-shale prices.

This is fucking microeconomics 101, did you guys sleep in class?

>> No.646976

>>646969
>ECONOMICS
>STOCK MARKET

LOL

I bet you believe efficient market theory too don't you?

>> No.646993

>>646976

Yes because the revenue a firm receives from the sale of hydrocarbon is a stock right?

And it doesn't matter if oil markets are not efficient, OPEC is not flooding supply just for fun, they're doing it to kill off shale, but as soon as they stop shale will just come back.

But seriously do you have any idea what I'm talking about

>> No.647002

>>646993
Shale won't just "come back"

They're trying to bankrupt companies and are succeeding. They want to solidify market share. It's not as simple as loleconomics.

I understand what you're saying and I agree, but there are human factors at play here too.

>> No.647003

>>646993
>>646976
As long as the benefits out way the costs and risk of fraking, shale will be like a zombie that rises from the grave to keep oil prices down.

(some believe that anyway, who the fuck knows whats going to happen)

>> No.647013

>>646783
BetaShares Crude oil Index (OOO)

>> No.647035

>>646783
uwti

>> No.647045

>>647002
ofc shale will come back, small explorers may go bankrupt but their assets be absorbed by exxon, bp, shell, etc. the market will just consolidate.

>> No.647080
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647080

>>646783

Can we get a genuine answer for this?

This board should be about how we take advantage and make money out of these situations.

>> No.647224

>>647002

Shale is just a set of technologies for oil extraction. It can't be "killed" any more than you can kill, say, oil refining. If you drive everybody out of business, somebody will just step in and start a new company with the same knowledge as before.

>> No.647237

>>647080
I think this is the bottom. Buy buy buy.

>> No.647277

>>647002

But all they need to restart shale production is backup a water truck to it.

>> No.647287

you will need to see lots of news about small to medium companies shutting down first.as someone pointed out oil companies will keep producing to service debt

sooner or later companies will fall. but I believe it is too soon for many to not be able to pay down their monthly payments