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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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624048 No.624048 [Reply] [Original]

>Not shorting FXCM on ridiculous overvalued acquisition rumors
>hurrdurr daytrading 90% 10% 3hard5me

This is why I find that statistic absolutely bullshit.

>> No.624053

>>624048

the day you lose your shirt you will know. i can tell by you only posting the thesis.

>> No.624055

>>624053

Been a little over 3 years, still have my shirt.

>> No.624056

>>624048
I'm a very profitable and consistent financial spread bettor and honestly I gave up on trying to convince people on this board several months ago. Everyone here seems to think trading is a joke and regurgitate out that 90% failure statistic or some boglehead bullshit about value investing. Their loss.

>> No.624058

>>624056

Yeah I've seen quite a few threads with that retarded statistic, people don't seem to realize how skewed that statistic is because literally anyone that has TRIED daytrading is included in the statistic. Anyone that has actually put in the time and effort to study and learn has much better odds. But that's fine, I'm sure they love their 5-10% a year returns

>> No.624070

>>624058
>Anyone that has actually put in the time and effort to study and learn has much better odds

Except they don't

Sure, people with experience could make some miniscule better guesses, but it doesn't change the fact that it's still effectively putting it all on red.

>> No.624073

>>624048

got long at 1.60, enjoying 100% returns. will be enjoying 200% in a few days. it coulda been yours kid, but ya spent too much time on 4butt

>> No.624084

>>624070

Except the difference isn't miniscule. Learning how to trade charts and news significantly increases your odds. Tired of idiots that know nothing about trading pretending that it's just gambling to make themselves feel better about not understanding it. It's not gambling.

>>624073
Nice. Idk about 200%, this thing is wrecked. I was actually playing the bounce on the gap down back when it got halted, long from 1.48 and sold at 4.20s. But I already made my money on the short today,3.07 covered at 2.85. Big size, like an 8% move. Did what I wanted, don't care for swing trading. Congrats though

>> No.624087

>>624073

I just hope you realize this spike today was based on ridiculous acquisition rumours. Schwab buyout at 5.25 a share, when they already expressed their disinterest in FXCM during the halt. Pricing like that puts them at a higher value than before the Franc surge, doesn't make sense.

>> No.624091

>>624084

You should definitely keep going for it then bro

You're definitely a special snowflake and the statistics don't apply to you and it'll be different for you.

>> No.624095

>>624091

Oh I have been, like I said before, been over 3 years. and it has been different for me, the statistic doesn't apply to me. The way I see it, it doesn't apply to anyone with a brain. I know a ridiculous amount of profitable traders. How are they profitable? They use their heads and stop listening to broke fucks that downtalk ways to get rich.

>> No.624096

>>624058
Exactly. The proliferation of online trading platforms and ease of access for retail customers means that there is an enormous supply of chancers who jump in without any knowledge or practice, place a large trade without stop-loss, and lose it all. This is a world away from the few successful people in this area, who treat it like a business and employ a strict trading strategy. It is not luck. I think the naysayers know this, but are either too lazy to put in the effort to learn how to be consistently profitable. That, or they are just trying to convince themselves that their boring low return safe investment philosophy is superior.

>> No.624101

>>624087

as far as i know the rumor didnt come out til this morning, and the highs were made yesterday. i mean it could definitely be bullshit, but the company looks like its safe from going under and its doing nearly as much daily volume as SPY -- i think it still has places to go, aint selling til it breaks support of 0.00

>> No.624160

>>624058
>how skewed that statistic is because literally anyone that has TRIED daytrading is included in the statistic
No, you're wrong. The academic day-trading studies are limited to traders who perform a certain volume and size of trades over extended period of time.

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/behfin/2004-04-10/barber-lee-liu-odean.pdf
http://www.investorhome.com/daytrade/profits.htm
http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day%20Traders/Day%20Trading%20Skill%20110523.pdf
http://www.iassa.co.za/wp-content/uploads/journals/075/iaj-75-no-3-ryu-final.pdf

The fact that you did not know this, or deliberately disregarded this, is a big reason why people like are considered a joke.

>> No.624363

>>624160

>linking outdated studies based on Taiwanese markets
>linking studies that blatantly state they examine all traders in the market over a given period of time

hi iHaz, how's the trust fund and inheritance?

>> No.624370

>>624048
I've been paper day trading for about 6 months now. I've been crazy profitbale. Like to the point where I want to drop out of school for it. Not going to, because I like having a back-up plan but still this shit is amazing. I never get too far ahead of myself and I set tight stop-losses. I'm gonna start with 10k capital and try hit 1% a day. Would've been up 87% on FXCM this week, including going short today.

I set my predictions during aftermarket and check them during aftermarket the next day. I've only been wrong maybe twice over the past 6 months (trying to time a ceiling on BLUE) but thats about it really.

>> No.624395

>>624370
Same here, I've dropped out only year from my graduation, I do not regret it. Absolutely great outcome. But I have to admit, I use very complex mathematical models and advanced probability analysis when applying decisions. I wouldn't know how to if I were not enrolled in Uni, but the rest of the degree is a piece of shit.

>> No.624399

>>624048
>shorting FXCM
Which broker could you borrow the stock to short?

>> No.624410

>>624370
Good shit man, just a heads up, often times when people transition to real money, they don't do AS well because of the emotions in play. Takes some time to get used to it but don't get discouraged.

>>624395
Same boat here man, except I dropped out in 2nd year.

>>624399
Centerpoint Securities

>> No.624420

>>624370
>>624410
Can you gentlemen recommend some books/ other resources for someone who has knowledge of math? (Chemical engineer sophomore here) . I have taken economics course but they are babby tier shit with the math removed, and even the math itself probably isn't hard, but I am not sure where to go from here.

>> No.624422

>>624410
>Centerpoint Securities
OK. Also, what acquisition rumours?

>> No.624457

>>624048
>hurrdurr daytrading 90% 10% 3hard5me
what statistic do you mean

only 10% of day traders make a profit or something? I prefer momentum/bounce trading myself and yes, during the 2013 and 2014 bull markets it was easy, but markets change.

>> No.624478

>>624457
Are you anticipating a commodity war?

>> No.625748

>>624420
Sorry buddy, never really got into the mathematical side of the markets and trading. All resources I used are from the internet, i.e google

>>624422
Read the thread

>>624457
Yes, that statistic. That 90% of all daytraders inevitably fail and only 10% benefit from it. And yeah I know markets change. Unfortunately, I haven't had the opportunity to trade a bear market but I'm fairly confident I can adapt.

>> No.625790

>>624048
how do you handle your taxes? i got really confused last year trying to do my taxes.

>> No.625921

>>625790

My accountant does everything for me. Only thing I do differently is I've incorporated myself as a "home business." lots of write-offs and tax benefits.

>> No.626235

>>624095
So you've been trading in an immense bull market and making money, and that makes you hot shit?

>> No.626260

>>626235

I never once claimed to be hot shit, but if your definition of hot shit is someone that makes an amazing living for themselves, then sure I'm hot shit. I've known traders that have traded both bull and bear markets, and I've learned my shit from them. I'm quite confident I can do just fine in a bear market given the opportunity. Besides, you make it sound as if trading in a bull market is a cakewalk; why aren't you doing it?

>> No.626271

OP, what have your annual returns been for the entire time you've been trading? Same question to any other day traders here

>> No.626389

>>626271
Safety note, if they dont provide proof dont believe them

>> No.626669
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626669

>try to short
>there are no shares available to short