Bubble Talk General Thread #2

[Anonymous No.6029418]

Remaking this thread, the last one was elite

[Anonymous No.6029522]

>>6029418
Last thread was a disaster. Some serious morons on /biz/
>comparing marketcaps of crypto to dot com bubble not realising that markets are fractals so need to compare growth rates
>comparing crypto to stocks
>comparing crypto to fiat
>comparing crypto to gold

Listen you fucks we are undeniably in a bubble, who the fuck knows where the top is. I can tell you the bottom is sub $100 BTC though

[Anonymous No.6029532]

>all the normies and kids with money are trying to get into crypto as we speak
>mfw thinking of all the normie money to be made
No REEEEEE for me lads, Normies get in!

[Anonymous No.6029579]

Fact of the matter is, none of us have any idea wtf is going on. Crypto is valuable because of the philosophical ownership points, and because it stops regulation, is global, potentially very fast, and stabler than some fiat.

But is this current situation sustainable? Who the fuck knows? We can sit here arguing about that but nobody's ever gonna convince others to change their minds.

[Anonymous No.6029613]

>>6029522
Ah, there's another guy who just pulls numbers out of his ass

[Anonymous No.6029620]

>>6029418

The crypto bubble is just like the Dot Com.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EsVpNB2Lv3U

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FTvfshr4tMw

[Anonymous No.6029626]

>>6029532
THIS
>buy in coins worth a few cents that havent mooned yet
>normie sees low price
>HUUHEHUHU its could be the next bitboin XD ima gonna buy this CHEAEP COIN
>normie money pumps price
>You sell at the top of normie hype
>Rinse and repeat

[Anonymous No.6029654]

>>6029418
We bubble at 100kish

[Anonymous No.6029680]

there's a shitcoin bubble. the useful coins will survive after this frenzy is over

[Anonymous No.6029687]

>>6029522
Dunning-kruger type of talk.

Never ceases to amuse me.

[Anonymous No.6029711]

Its only 7 days past the new year so I doubt anything will happen. The sign of trouble is when we hear bad news coming from the coins. e.g. bitcoin banned/Banks stop using ripple/No dev support.

[Anonymous No.6029713]

>>6029620
Except so far it's behaved completely differently. You can't just compare two arbitrary markets and draw conclusions about the future

[Anonymous No.6029724]

>>6029687
I’ll take a prize winning economist over /biz/ any day

[Anonymous No.6029767]

[Anonymous No.6029777]

There is rampant dip-buying behavior though. I'm really not sure what could put a stop to it any time soon. It's all about dangling that carrot infront of investors faces so that they spend more time looking for the next 100x than they do thinking about how to convert to USD and get out. A BTC sitting as a buy order on polo is a BTC that can't be sitting as a sell order on GDAX.

[Anonymous No.6029810]

>>6029613
>transaction fees are ludicrous
>slow as shit
>essentially centralised because of currency distribution and mining distribution
>provably traceable
>outdated use case

Bitcoin isn’t going to recover if it crashes

[Anonymous No.6029815]

>>6029724
Economists. Nice degree. k3k

Lets run on the hypotheses this is a bubble. So what? Only idiots buy shit coins, good coins with real world applications will be allowed to survive and prosper after it pops (there's about 4 of them at the moment out of almost 1400). In fact, let the market crash for all I care, panicking is for morons who don't know what they are doing. Like you, your fear feeds me.

[Anonymous No.6029816]

>>6029724
Fun fact: if people blindly followed the average economist advice they would be likely to perform worse than the market.

[Anonymous No.6029850]

>>6029620
Reading that sent a chill up my spine for some reason. Pls black horseman no bully

[Anonymous No.6029871]

We've all been in crypto since 2013 or earlier and we're early to the party. We didn't know this would happen but we knew blockchain was valuable. Will we also see when the time comes to get out?

[Anonymous No.6029891]

>>6029810
Yes obviously btc is shit at its fundamentals, but on the other hand it still keeps acting like a valuable collectible in the same manner as cold.

There are however coins that don't tick any of your points. Namely XLM and XRP. A lot of the others are also pretty decent

[Anonymous No.6029935]

>>6029767
last month of gains, 25k would be a nice target before this all goes into the shitter

[Anonymous No.6029952]

>>6029871
No we won't. And we won't know when or if that time is.

The smart answer is to keep taking profits and not acting like you can see the future.

[Anonymous No.6030009]

>>6029815
>good coins with real world applications will survive
>buys more BTC
Hahahhaha

[Anonymous No.6030031]

>>6029767
also this

[Anonymous No.6030195]

I'm kind of skeptikall it will happen anytime soon though too.

Most of these normies have been in for at most 3 weeks. I don't see why they're going to want to get out so soon.

[Anonymous No.6030221]

>>6029891
Gold:
>malleable, divisible, innate, limited, PHYSICAL good with real world application
>BTC: ?

[Anonymous No.6030241]

>>6030195
This is a good point, even by crypto standards it would be early for a crash

[Anonymous No.6030242]

>>6029522
Why

[Anonymous No.6030282]

>>6030221
See >>6029579

[Anonymous No.6030296]

>>6030195
Daily reminder that normies didn’t buy into dot com

[Anonymous No.6030315]

>>6029680
As for all these supposed "useful" coins that will survive the implosion: what are we talking about, exactly? Siacoin? A $3B Dropbox beta that doesn't need its own coin by any possible argument? Show me these useful coins. Please. Pretty please.

[Anonymous No.6030347]

>>6030282
>not backed by governments
>not regulated by any bodies
Hmm really makes me think

[Anonymous No.6030393]

>>6030296
ofcourse they didnt, where the fuck do you think the money came? Out of air? Fucking think before u post anything

[Anonymous No.6030425]

>>6030315
Well uhh there’s ripple it’s the bank coin that is like bitcoin but $2, and there’s XLM something something IBM, and there’s hmmm OMG dude Thailand, dude McDonald’s and there’s hmmmmn...

[Anonymous No.6030427]

>>6030195
Crypto is fucking addictive, nobody is getting out

[Anonymous No.6030456]

>>6030315

LINK, XMR, BLOCK.

[Anonymous No.6030479]

>>6030347
Yeah look at all that regulation (((gold))) is getting

Face it, gold is a bubble far worse than crypto. >>6030347

[Anonymous No.6030512]

>>6030393
Not in any appreciable %. The % of people investing in crypto is higher than the dotcom as a fraction of personal investors/industry investors. Don’t even try to deny that

[Anonymous No.6030526]

>>6030427
markets reverse when there are no more buyers.

[Anonymous No.6030538]

OK but we'll be at like 17,500 by like 8pm eastern

[Anonymous No.6030553]

Discord Pump Group

We are a team of highly dedicated members hell bent on capturing the cryptocurrency scene. Be a part of it or miss out big time. Let's get this snowball rolling

https://discord dot gg/hTTEEt2

[Anonymous No.6030557]

>>6030479
>Face it, gold is a bubble far worse than crypto

[Anonymous No.6030583]

>>6030557
Gold is the anti-bubble. When anything goes wrong, normies FOMO into gold like crazy.

[Anonymous No.6030636]

>>6030557
Nice argument, Goldman. Gold is several trillions and it's nothing more than a specific metal with limited industrial use. It has no business being as overpriced as it is.

[Anonymous No.6030641]

What you need to understand is that governments want to inflate this bubble. There are perverse incentives due to the asymmetrical nature of capital gains tax. The speculator takes on 100% of the risk and the government reaps 33% of the rewards, and those rewards can be astronomical in some cases.

Furthermore, due to the truly global nature of crypto and the fact that citizens of developed countries were in nearly all cases the early adopters, this could act as a way of extracting value from developing countries as they will be the last to buy in.

Governments really have no reason to curtail people cashing in or out of crypto. They only thing they have to ensure is that at the end of the day EUR and USD are what people truly desire. Hence why there is so much emphasis on the fiat price of crypto on the news, fiat is the measure of all things.

And to people comparing this to the 2013 crypto bubbles, this time it genuinely is different. I would call it the coinbase effect. It takes 5 minutes and a creditcard to buy it this time, not some shady Japanese exchange and a wire transfer. CB has dozens more coins to add, we are far from finished here.

Meanwhile, ICOs are the essence of what crypto's main use-case has been for years: pure speculation. ETH has completely changed everything and this bubble would not exist without it.

At the end of the day, Satoshi never intended Bitcoin to be traded for fiat; you were supposed to mine it, not buy it. It was never meant to be this way but it is.

[Anonymous No.6030656]

>>6029250

>You are valuing another countries currency using the one hyperinflating, how could you accurately know the value? Measured in dollars they would seem to be getting insanely valuable

Easy, use the prices of things like bread or water to peg the price of everything else. This happens because the usage of certain things remains stable, even if the market collapses. It's imperfect though, so I will grant you that.

Anyway as it applies to BTC: if all currencies except BTC crash, then the inflow of money into BTC is cut accordingly. This hurts the demand for bitcoins thus dropping the price accordingly, or at least until supply is decreased to match the new demand. BTC would crash with everything else since most people buy BTC off exchanges rather than mining it themselves, again this is a limitation of BTC. In case such things are not obvious again I want to restate what I said here >>6028771 - BTC's problems are not necessarily with bitcoins (the item) themselves but with all the third party services built around it, that are abusing and exploiting bitcoins in ways their creators never imagined.

Which is to say 99% of the problem with cryptos comes from the exchanges, and is why we don't have a true lasting coin yet. Nobody has exactly figured out how to code their coin in ways to prevent third party abuse, although proof-of-stake systems are the initial attempt at doing so. As cryptos mature, so will understanding of how people abuse them which is how better coins will be built. But this will take years if not decades.

I'm still optimistic about cryptos, just not their current form.

[Anonymous No.6030699]

>>6030583
Kek, no they don't. Jews will. And if they don't? Everybody realizes that it's overvalued and the bubble bursts

[Anonymous No.6030721]

>>6030636
>limited industrial use
TOP FUCKING KEK THE STATE OF CRYPTOTARDS

[Anonymous No.6030819]

>>6030721
Take lithium for example. It is orders of magnitude more useful than gold. Gold's industrial use only makes up a fraction of its price, the rest is meme status.

You are sounding more and more salty with every post

[Anonymous No.6030824]

>>6029952

I think we may have better indicators than some other people will at the very least. The hive mind of 4chan doesn't cause things to happen but I think it's something to pay attention to.

Once people on /biz/ really start yammering incessantly about an incoming pop it might be wise to listen (any 4chan user knows how to filter out shills and people who aren't being genuine). I'm sure many won't but it feels like the mood here hasn't shifted yet. There are still hundreds of "I'm new here threads" every day.

[Anonymous No.6030925]

The best thing about this bubble is that everybody, even institutional investors, are trapped in the market. The money can't leave easily or quickly.

Big players might be able to sell thousands of bitcoins in a dark pool but who will buy if they think the market is crashing? The bubble can't be popped that easily.

[Anonymous No.6030935]

>>6030824
Well I guess a mood shift could mean something. If the overall opinion becomes cynical that could say something. So far it's mostly nocoiners who are saying crypto will go to zero.

But a crash could still come unnannounced. The amount of shitcoins in the market is not healthy for it.

[Anonymous No.6030965]

>>6030824

Also so far there is no easy way to short 95% of the alts. Nobody has any incentive for it to go down. As soon as exchanges start implementing mechanisms to short major alts that may be time to get out an reevaluate until it settles.

Housing suffers from the same problem of not being easy to short which is why that gets caught out bubbling relatively often.

[Anonymous No.6031017]

>>6030819
It’s orders of magnitude more avialable as well. And lithium isn’t more useful than gold, it has specific use cases in batteries but even then LiCd batteries will get phased out by ionic polymers

[Anonymous No.6031078]

>>6030925
Hahahahahahaha you are legitimately retarded.
Either they lower the price to sell driving down the market or no one buys and the tulips become rotten in the field

[Anonymous No.6031100]

>>6031017
It's not like either is a limited resource per se. There are dozens of other rare nice-looking metals and rocks, but none of them are as overvalued as gold.

[Anonymous No.6031126]

>>6030456
Right. $TINK. Which is a white paper. Which is useful for wiping your ass. GTFO. We're in pre-release alpha stage of blockchain tech, but nobody gives a shit because right now it's a money-printing ponzi scheme.

[Anonymous No.6031192]

>>6030925

We're trapped because in minor rushes like IOTA all the exchanges crash. Imagine if mass panic sets in. The exchanges will all go down. The networks will go down. Banks will probably freak out about all these incoming ACH deposits (which is what most coinbase normies will do).

It will be ugly.

[Anonymous No.6031226]

>>6030456
>LINK
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA NIGGA HAHAHAHAHAHAHA NIGGA PLS OH MY GOD HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHA

[Anonymous No.6031738]

>>6029522

>markets are fractals

explain this

[Anonymous No.6032048]

>>6031738

I think he means that they are self-similar on all time-scales, right?

[Anonymous No.6032369]

>>6029711
Banks have never used fucking ripple

[Anonymous No.6032829]

One last bump.

[Anonymous No.6032862]

I laugh at goldbugs scoffing at crypto like any other but I need to set the record straight.
Gold will stay a perfectly acceptable hedge for a long time.
>limited uses
Gold as an element has multiple very unique properties, read a book.
>muh space mining
Gold is as rare in space as it is on earth. Mining it from asteroids has enormous energy costs so wont bring gold price down, up rather.
>muh shiny rock
It's a rare shiny rock with a long history of being uaed as value store. Read some Taleb, how long something has been around often is a rough indicator for how long it will be around in the future.

[Anonymous No.6032927]

Ok, we agree that crypto is in a bubble now.

That's ok, because we're making money. The bubble will pop when there is no new money coming in.

What will cause this? Will this happen? Do you agree?

[Anonymous No.6032929]

>>6032048
>>6031738
yes, comparing market caps make very little sense. you need to compare rate of growth

[Anonymous No.6032979]

>>6029418

pic related to how fucked btc holders are.

[Anonymous No.6033231]

>>6029767
Try again with logscale taint for brains

[Anonymous No.6033329]

>>6032979
I held through that whole thing and beyond faggot, buying some cheap ltc and eth along the way.

[Anonymous No.6033390]

>>6033329
i-it'll a-always recover g-guys...

[Anonymous No.6033427]

>>6030824
There have been faggots on /biz/ claiming the end is near for the last 2 fucking years.

[Anonymous No.6033445]

This whole bubble talk makes me wonder.
We know both crypto and stocks are bubbles. I don't think we've ever had a system for comparing bubbles though. Is there any way we could theoretically evaluate which is more overinflated and will burst first?

[Anonymous No.6033515]

>>6029522
it's a bubble, yes, but we're not going sub $100 BTC

like 95% of the shitcoins are going to crash hard though

[Anonymous No.6033546]

>>6030636
People have been saying this for the last 20,000 years.

[Anonymous No.6033604]

>>6029620
if anything this is an argument to invest MORE. read about the dotcom, the crypto bubble is surprisingly similar. there are thousands of shitcoins that have no product and they will all crash and burn, just like during the dotcom bubble thousands of companies had no product and crashed and burned.

after the dotcom bubble popped there were winners - apple, microsoft, amazon, etc. the same will happen with crypto. it will cash, tons of shitcoins will die - but there will be winners. Ethereum. NEO. BTC. A few other big ones.

shitcoins are for gains, not long term holding. remember that.

[Anonymous No.6033650]

>>6030456
>LINK
>NOT A SHITCOIN

[Anonymous No.6033940]

>>6033445
that alone would make everybody millionaires. just pour your money into the one you know is gonna burst later, and when the other bursts, pull out