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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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595274 No.595274 [Reply] [Original]

oil

when will it go back up

>> No.595279

When OPEC collapses

>> No.595295

>>595274
The WTI price will go to 40.
We will hear of some cuts, but mainly that financing of new oil infrastructure is no more.
Even people who need loans for routine repair will not get them.
Rigs will go idle.
Shale cities are gonna panic.
Economy gonna hurt.
30 WTI major cuts.
Shale cities massive layoffs.
Takes time to effect supply.
25 WTI low price.
By this point the little guy went bankrupt and exxon (and bp, etc) will buy them up for pennies.
Oil goes back to $100 in a year with Exxon easily affording to idle the shale rigs and ride it out. BP will buy some, but given their court losses Exxon will still be king.

>> No.595301

>>595295


wti crude will not go below 40 and I can personally guarantee that because i am a reasonably senior engineer who works for COP

i wish I could provide some sort of proof or reasoning behind that statement but you're just going to have to trust me on that. Don't buy oil or any energy etfs until its at like 40-42/barrel.

>> No.595305

>>595301

>I can personally guarantee

Give me your contact information please

>> No.595306

>investing in the futures market

top kek no more free money for the plebs

>> No.595312

The federal reserve funded the oil production bubble, boosting production by 70% in ten years. Things could get very ugly.

>> No.595320

>>595301
The 2009 WTI low would like to talk to you.

>> No.595327

>>595305
and how exactly do you propose I do that on an anonymous imageboard

>>595320
>the world in 2009 is the same as the world in 2014

the international climate is orders of magnitude different than it was back then and you should feel bad for even trying to draw parallels

>> No.595336

>>595327
>and how exactly do you propose I do that on an anonymous imageboard
Public-key cryptography?

>> No.595342

>>595327
>the international climate is orders of magnitude different than it was back then and you should feel bad for even trying to draw parallels

Europe and china still a shit plus we have a fracking boom!

>> No.595920

>>595274
it will be higher in a year

>> No.595926
File: 174 KB, 1600x900, Screenshot 2014-12-29 14.14.10.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
595926

>>595274
I just bought in big in USO at around 22 a share. Hopefully it goes down to 18 and then skyrockets back up to 30 so I can cash out

>> No.595929

>>595274
when are we thinking is the best time to get in? Why are all you numbnuts sad? I love market crashes, get in while prices are cheap, know when things will go back up.

>> No.595934

>>595929
>>595274
>>595929
get in now man. It's already dropped enough. THe upside is much bigger than the downside

Buy the ETF "USO"

>> No.595937

>>595934
>get in now
>gonna drop another 20%

no.

>> No.595943

>>595937
it's called a calculated risk. you are gonna missout on the one of the best buys of 2014

>> No.595952
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595952

>>595926
keep buying bro and hold long. I just bought more BNO today.

pic related

>> No.595969

bought 2,000 shares kwk @ 0.20

>> No.596021
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596021

>>595274
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/brent.php

learn more about the time element of pricing, in the oil market there are 100000s if not millions of speculators, traders, investors and businesses all over the world buying various crude futures (not just brent but they all influence each other) with different behaviors and purchasing power and it takes a certain amount of time for a move to finish, it has only been days since the price stabilized at around $60, we could be looking at a period of weeks before we can be confident that the price has stabilized

$50 would be a very good price to buy based on fundamentals, this isn't the credit crunch so there is no panic and due to the past few years of fracking with costs of production from $50 to $100 we can expect most companies to have reduced production in response. It is unlikely to reach $50 however because the price drop has begun to slow down and we are entering a critical period where hedgies are going to begin exercising their shorts. Some predict it will go as low as $40 like it did during the crunch but the consensus seems to be $50, if I am wrong I will be long alongside a lot of other experts. Unless China collapses tomorrow we won't see 90s level gas prices, though we will have a massive financial crisis and be able to buy the dip a few months later. Anyway, these events are unlikely. All things considered $50 is the resistance level and I might be tempted to buy some UCO if the price quickly pushes back up to $60 or if it continues to drop to $55.

>> No.596092

>>595952
why did you get BNO vs the more liquid USO? i'm curious

>> No.596100

>>595943
If oil stays flat for awhile, USO will continue to fall in price due to futures market contango and rollover slippage. You know this, right?

>> No.596106

>>596092
USL FTW

>> No.596139

>>596100
>contango
I thought USO directly followed the price of Oil. This isn't some leveraged ETF that uses fututers like PRO SHARES 3x BOIL... where you lose money over time if it does not move up

>> No.596141

>>596106
>USL
?

how is this different than USO?

USO is BY FAR the most popular and liquid directly correlated, non leveraged way to get exposure to OIL. the management cost is 1% a year.

>> No.596170
File: 19 KB, 400x400, what_the_fuck_am_I_reading.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
596170

>>595274
>what in the fuck is energy fuel

>> No.596198

>>596141
http://www.etf.com/sections/blog/5362-uso-oil-usl.html

>> No.596264
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596264

>>596198
why the fuck would you get USL? you have any idea the high amount of Tracking error on that ETF? DBO or OLO are really the only options for long term oil exposure

>> No.596288

>>595969
Y

>> No.596337

>>596264
You and your chart shit.

>> No.596463

Do you fuckboys really want to try and catch a falling knife?

If you are please do yourself a favor and know when you're wrong. Don't just hold the shit because your ego can't take the hit. Use a stop whether a mental one or an actual order.

>> No.596557

>>596092
only real reason is I wanted Brent and wanted it to track futures so some friend told me about BNO and I was too lazy to do any real research, so I picked BNO. But i mean its like 50k shares a day Im trading at most 100 I can get out no problem.

>> No.596579

>>596100
USL gives you more exposure to the heavier backwardation that exists further into the future meaning you will be much more fucked than if you have gotten USO.

TL:DR
backwardation > contango

>> No.596830

This thread is funny.

Prices were high to begin with because of conflicts in many oil producing countries, like Libya which was limiting supply in oil. With the easing tensions in Libya and the US shale oil boom, it wasn't a surprise to any of us that the price would drop. The problem now is that the US and Canada is pumping more oil than ever, and OPEC states like the Saudi's and Iran does not want to lose market share, so they aren't cutting back their production to mark the prices up. This was a huge surprise, and it's been in a falling knife battle ever since.

You aren't going to pick a bottom on technical analysis. The only indicator you have is to watch the inventory reports every Wednesday. When prices get too low, the the US will cut back production. And it's not slowing down yet. The only other way is for the economy to weaken which is throttle production, which is already happening in some European countries and China.

All of these "It'll be $100 again in 6 months" speculators are retards and have done no due diligence.

>> No.596850

>>596830
Yes, the "$100 back in 6 months" stuff is an outdated analysis that was plausible when oil was at $80. Now it becomes unlikely for the reason you explained.

>> No.596854

>>596830
>When prices get too low, the the US will cut back production.

this seems counter-productive to me. Pls Xplain.

>> No.596856

>>596854

It's the law of supply mate. High-cost operations aren't viable when oil is $40/bbl.

>> No.596857

>>596854
That's because the production costs will be higher than the market price. Fracking is expensive, while Saudis who don't frack have much lower production costs (less than $10 per barrel).

>> No.596860
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596860

>>596264
>long term

>> No.596865

>>596830
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production

Libya produces 0.85% of the world's oil. It is a factor but minor, huge price swings aren't influenced by a few percentile changes in oil production but by changes in demand, China and Europe slowing down.

>> No.596871

>>596857
The marginal cost of fracking is the same as Saudi oil. So once the well is in that are very competitive.

>> No.597050

>>596871
there is nothing correct about this post

>> No.597901

oil under 50 by end of friday.

>> No.598953

>>597901
Oil has bottomed out. Buy by tomorrow or lose out of 8% gains

>> No.598955

>>595274
if/when USD rises
if/when Russia gets in line
if/when Saudi decides to cut production

>> No.599568
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599568

Oil era is over. Invest in renewable energies.

>he actually invested in oil
>mfw

>> No.599592

>>597050
Can I have a source for your disagreement? Forbes and WSJ say my post about marginal cost is right.

>> No.600013

>56.5
ayy

>> No.600032
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600032

why do people think oil will magically go up when there has been no news that would spur a turn around?

>> No.600319

>>599568

>Investing in renewables when the price of oil is tanking

>> No.600337
File: 50 KB, 989x594, brent.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
600337

>>600013
still dipping, this is great news, the lower it goes the lower the risk and the greater the potential returns when I finally buy UCO

>> No.600342

>>600032
price movements are as much a factor as any other, ideally it wouldn't be the only source of information of course

>> No.600345

>>600032
How long do you think the Saudis can or want to hold out? They are in the red, dipping into their reserves. I give it 2 to 4 months before things go back to normal.
If they are trying to hurt Russia, winter is the best time to do so.

>> No.600558

>>600032
because it can only go down so much before it corrects

>>600337
it has already stabilized. You have to get into oil right now before it goes up 50%

>> No.600873

>>596830

This is the only post that matters.

Everything else in this thread is stupid.

>> No.600891

>>600873
actually I am pretty sure >>596830 puts excessive emphasis on supply, the cost of production of fracking and shale oil is $50 and above

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2009/07/28/oil-cost-factbox-idUSLS12407420090728

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/23/idUSL3N0SH5N220141023

http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=53&aid=1&cid=regions&syid=1980&eyid=2014&unit=TBPD

since global oil production has only increased 8% over 10 years we can attribute such a sudden change in price to demand

end of QE3 in America, slowdown in Europe and China

explain how this view and these posts are stupid >>596865 >>596021

It won't be $100 in 6 months, no one said that, most forecasts say it will gradually rise to $70

>> No.600897

?test