/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.58895309]

Did anyone watch that Powell speech? It was a like a full-on victory lap lmao

JPow, who is usually extremely cold and serious, threw in like 3-4 jokes in between all his very positive data with everyone laughing as if he's doing a stand up. Everything is in the clear, remember don't fight the Fed

[Anonymous No.58895347]

Ship of fools. Rate cuts ALWAYS precede severe recession

[Anonymous No.58895373]

>>58895347
check the mid 90s on that graph bobo-kun

[Anonymous No.58895389]

>>58895373
This aint the fuckin mid 90s kid

[Anonymous No.58895396]

>>58895347

Not always. And not all recessions are the same. This one was literally planned. The GFC and COVID were rugpulls. He's in good spirits because his mini recession was successful.

[Anonymous No.58895403]

Won’t this drive inflation back up?

[Anonymous No.58895406]

>>58895309
He's in a better mood because he's in Jackson, Wyoming instead of Niggerville, DC.

[Anonymous No.58895415]

>>58895403
>back up
It never went down. Economy is kill, we are just waiting for the gas to escape the corpse.

[Anonymous No.58895452]

>>58895373
try again tard-kun
pre QE era doesn't count

[Anonymous No.58895454]

>>58895389
>ALWAYS
>provided example when it didnt
>WELL ... N-not LIKE THIS!!

[Anonymous No.58895519]

>>58895309
these crooks are laughing all the way, he just showed a glimpse of his true self

[Anonymous No.58895535]

>>58895452
The lesson the Fed learned from the GFC is "more faster", scamdemic was them implementing that lesson, the wagie slave continues to take it up the ass, as long as the labor market is weak the Fed can pump assets as much as they want

[Anonymous No.58895553]

>>58895373
At that time the economy wat going through the dot coom boom. Even the US government ran a surplus.

[Anonymous No.58895580]

>>58895553
>>58895389
we are at the same place, right now we got the ai boom to get this clown show going
everybody is saying nvda is in a hyperbubble right now, but they have no idea whats yet to come
oh look exactly like the internet bubble in 1995

and usgov deficit is only accommodating
look up both consumer spending and mag 7 profits
stock buy backs and data center build out will make peoples head spin

[Anonymous No.58895595]

>>58895452
>try again tard-kun
but your graph says the exact thing i told you it would say
rate cuts in the mid nineties without a recession but instead with a mega bullrun

or is this a concession on you moving the goalposts out the stadium pre or aft QE era doesnt mean shit

[Anonymous No.58895902]

>>58895309
We're so heckin back, and things can move quickly for BTC now.
Let's hope we can somehow get close to the ATH from organic market movements and short liquidations in the next few weeks.
Then Saylor can blow his load. Then the rate cut can pump it further. Then FTX can pay back $16 billion to creditors and they can pump it further.
Not sure about the US election to be honest but it could help as well. $100k could be possible this year with some luck, the main problem seems to be that too many people want to sell in that range, too many will want to front-run this at 90k, and some will try to front-run it at 80k.

[Anonymous No.58895913]

>>58895595
Yeah you ignored how in August 6 the IMF was saying we were having a soft landing. You are also ignoring how debt levels are a different universe now vs then so interest rates hit way harder even with a lag. Ask yourself why interest rates have been tending towards 0. The system doesn't sustain interest rates up for long times anymore.
You may get a last squeeze on the first rate cuts (they cut rates and nothing exploded, we are saved). I would be surprised if there is not a crash before the bull run starts/resumes.

[Anonymous No.58896100]

>>58895913
and none of that matters, especially whatever the imf is saying
the entire market is now carried by a few companies with massive free cashflow that engage in continuous buybacks
thats a permanent emotionless buy wall that doesnt care for neither macro nor meme lines
its only time to worry when that buyback wall disappears
i do also believe the current hike cycle sustained the interest rate longer than the 2005-2007 cycle already so thats another data point we can ignore

i would advise you to ignore whatever bearish media you are parroting right now and start looking at the graphs themselves and draw your own conclusions rather than repeat lies from other people

[Anonymous No.58896110]

>>58895415
wow, that imagery, lol

[Anonymous No.58896336]

>>58896100
>the entire market is now carried by a few companies with massive free cashflow
translation
>the entire market is now carried by a few companies that basically function as an arm of the federal government

[Anonymous No.58896837]

We are so back...

[Anonymous No.58896843]

>>58895519
>Powell presents himself serious and even negative
>He's the bad guy because people sell due to his gloomy mannerisms, what an asshole
>Powell presents himself optimistic and happy
>He's the bad guy because he's actually a sociopath, laughing all the way, a glimpse of his true monstrous self
Come on now. Some of you sound like tarot reading 'body language experts'.

[Anonymous No.58896853]

>>58896837
post your REAL portfolio nigger.

[Anonymous No.58897682]

>>58896100
Based objective reality connoisseur. Slaveminds, belief does not matter, throw out your homosexual "models" and "theories" and fucking LOOK AT THE WORLD. The wagie slave continues to take it up the ass, Fed has a lot of room to run

[Anonymous No.58897688]

>>58896336
Is this good? Fuck no. Can this continue? Yes.

[Anonymous No.58897728]

So the rate reversal is obviously preceding an economic crash. HOWEVER, what is going to happen to the price of our assets?
This is my suspicion:
>In the lead up to the rate cut, price will pump as people try to front run
>Immediately after the rate cut, price will pump as money is easier
>Awful economic conditions consolidate (lots of people out of work, people can't afford stuff), price crashes "briefly" (1 week to a couple of months)
>Bull run for real and assets skyrocket as money is easy

[Anonymous No.58897921]

>>58895309
Is there a point to your soliloquy?

[Anonymous No.58897923]

>>58897682
Is that your belief?

[Anonymous No.58897936]

>>58897682
My point is that asserting something is objective reality doesn't make it so, otherwise I would assert as objective reality that my lottery numbers will win next week

[Anonymous No.58897952]

>>58897936
>I would assert as objective reality that my lottery numbers will win next week
Would that change the outcome? You can observe that my claimed objective reality IS reality by observing reality, but you refuse. Why do you refuse?

[Anonymous No.58897953]

>>58895347
I love that you retards are going ti miss the bullrun. Fills me with joy

[Anonymous No.58897955]

>>58895389
>kid
Nigger missed 15-20k and now he's seething lmao

[Anonymous No.58897962]

>>58895309
meanwhile everything still inflated to fuck

[Anonymous No.58897969]

>>58895309
>I LOVE THE FEDS, THANK YOU FOR INVESTING IN RWA AND GETTING US INTO DEBT, I WOULD NEVER EVER EVER EVER MISS MY TAX DAY

[Anonymous No.58899593]

>>58897936
gets told to look at objective data series and make up your own mind based on that rather than listen to soï boi thought leaders
responds with wishing reality into existence bullshit

anon are you functional retarded or did you really mis the point entirely

[Anonymous No.58899609]

>>58895347
You’re done bitch.

[Anonymous No.58899994]

he's laughing because there's some big economic event about to happen. everything is aligned. election year, wars on multiple fronts, public rejection of vaccines and scorn over health scares, mass immigration, racial tensions, communist policies enacted all over the place. something big is about to drop

[Anonymous No.58900042]

>>58896100
so you are ignoring the fact that this looks like a textbook pre-unemployment spike and recession confirmation by assorted powell and thus market crashing because the mag7 can do buybacks?
>>58897688
Remember how Maddof's scheme would never crash? exactly.

[Anonymous No.58900122]

>>58895373
>b-but what about that time they barely touched the rates at all!?!?
The rates were effectively flat in the mid 90s.
Check the cut in early 2001 right before the .com bubble, or the rate cuts in late 2007 right before the housing bubble, or the cuts from 2019 to 2020.
And literally every other cut ever.

[Anonymous No.58900146]

>>58900122
complete conjecture
jpow is only committed to a 25 bp cut, where do you get the idea he will emergency cut to 0 from???

>>58900042
basically yes the average plebe doesnt matter anymore and also the consumer is still spending
since housing is now unaffordable the wojack can spend his credit card into the regular economy at will

[Anonymous No.58900150]

>>58900042
also a reminder that the employment data has been completely cooked by the bls for over a year now so all data series from there are to be ignored
they now publicly admitted to this so all this garbage about the rahm rule being triggered was in reality triggered a year ago and produced no recession
things to make you go uhmmm

[Anonymous No.58900158]

>>58895519
they talk about the "labor market cooling" and unemployment reaching acceptable levels like thousands of families aren't being forced out of jobs and homes

[Anonymous No.58900161]

>>58895913
>Yeah you ignored how in August 6 the IMF was saying we were having a soft landing.
*contingent on geopolitical stability and lack of unforeseen disruptors

[Anonymous No.58900191]

>>58900146
>Yeah, all those times where the cuts lead to a bearish takeover, yeah all that's conjecture
>Even though it happens every single time
Unironic cope.

The big sell off in 1981 was preceded by cuts.
The big sell off in 1984 was preceded by cuts.
The big sell off in 1987 was preceded by cuts.
The big sell off in 1990 was preceded by cuts.
The big sell off in 2001,
The big sell off in 2008,
The big sell off in 2020/2022

Do you know what happened in 1929 right before the great depression?
FED cut rates.
EVERY recession was preceded by cuts.
But, this time is different, right? This time it won't happen because???? """they""" are on your side, right? They're looking out for your best interesting, RIGHT???? They're cutting rates so YOU can make it.
L
O
L

[Anonymous No.58900414]

>>58900191
>being shown the way
>still wants to be be retard
have fun anon you'll need it

[Anonymous No.58900671]

>>58900146
>jpow is only committed to a 25 bp cut, where do you get the idea he will emergency cut to 0 from???
exactly, they always want to cut rates slowly, until some bullshit that's not priced in happens, hence the rate cut + crash coincidence

something will happen, i dont know what, coupled with unemployment spike, and then we crash

can we pump before that happens due rate cut copium? yes we can, but how much should I be allocated at this point to squeeze alpha until the last second? what if the market frontruns this and we crash? sometimes the crashes happen a bit before, with the first rate cut, or after a couple rate cuts, but that's the idea

could powell manufacture an unicorn and we pump while they cut rates with no recession? well, are you going to bet into that?

[Anonymous No.58900714]

>>58895347
Correct.
That's when you buy because 1 year out from rate cuts averages out to about +15%.

[Anonymous No.58900779]

>>58900042
Maddof didn't have a money printer. USD has no bottom.

[Anonymous No.58900785]

>>58900671
Recession is already over, unemployment peaks with the market bottom, which happened in '23 based on bls revisions

[Anonymous No.58900970]

>>58900779
even if you own the printer you are still subjected to cycles and limited to how much you can realistically print due inflation
>>58900785
you can't read charts mate. check:
>>58900042

[Anonymous No.58901081]

>>58895309

bula and bobo itt are wrong. it not 2007 or 1995. Global pandemic into inflation + hikes into disinflation + cuts and unemployment up is 1923

[Anonymous No.58901278]

>>58900970
>limited to how much you can realistically print due inflation
They don't care about inflation, they care the ratio of wage inflation to asset inflation, which is why "we aren't even going to think about rate hikes until 2023!" became "we're going to raise rates as fast as we think we can" in 2021 when wage growth started outpacing monetary expansion. But the wagie has been defeated, income growth is back to pre-scamdemic levels, the wagie cucked on rto, and both presidential candidates are promising an unrelenting torrent of cheap brown labor. The Fed has a lot of room to run.
>muh charts
Jobs revisions. That's all we'll get as it's a real terms recession not nominal.

[Anonymous No.58902038]

>>58900671
that chart means nothing since the data series has been completely corrupted by the bls
if it really was a leading indicator we should have been in a recession for more than a year already
yet here we are
any other low iq wrong takes you want to throw against the wall here

[Anonymous No.58902070]

>>58900042
Sahm rule already triggered too

[Anonymous No.58902072]

>>58900146
They're going to dump on retails heads like they always do. Retail are retards

[Anonymous No.58902079]

>>58901081
Part of me does feel like things will go smoothly until the end of the decade and then we are giga fucked, worse than GFC.

[Anonymous No.58902096]

>>58895309
More K shaped recovery bullshit. Most of the consumer spending is fueled by the top income earners - many of which already own assets. What will happen is more job losses for the middle and lower class but assets will continue to inflate. With QT ending, the Treasury buying back bonds and fiscal dominance there will be no slow down for the top 25% of earners. Enjoy the stag and flation DP. Do you really think Boomers will tolerate a recession before they kick the bucket? Most of them have 10 years left.

[Anonymous No.58902123]

>>58895309
If I was him I'd be laughing too with their scam.

[Anonymous No.58902125]

>>58895309
Guess the time for buying is over, kas, inj and fun are going to the moon the following week

[Anonymous No.58903220]

>>58901278
powell has said 2% is the objective, if they don't get there their credibility is in doubt which is the last thin they would want since they want people to buy bonds
>>58902038
that's not it, the recession doesn't get acknowledged until they have no way out, it doesn't matter when it started for real, what matters is that when they confirm then the market crashes.