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58627981 No.58627981 [Reply] [Original]

Could someone explain what is priced in and what isn't?

>> No.58627993

>>58627981
tech stocks say everything is bullish I wanna go. SP500 says i wanna dump. BTC dumps.

>> No.58628001

>>58627981
hard landing is being priced in as we speak

>> No.58628007

>>58627981
Everything is priced in

>> No.58628085

priced in: delusions
priced out: reality

>> No.58628093
File: 33 KB, 862x391, sp500 0.18.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
58628093

>>58628001
>hard landing
>sp500 -0.18%
are you fking joking

>> No.58628727

>>58627981
All public information is priced in.
Some private insider information isn't (and some is).
Simple as.

>> No.58628760

>>58627981
Efficient market theory, bro - everything is always priced in because every market participant is fully informed and fully rational.

>> No.58628852

>>58628760
well should all charts be flat then _______ kek

>> No.58628890

>>58627981
Nobody of any worth whatsoever really expects interest rates to come down because the US economy is absolutely fucked.
It turns out that service based economies are a giant Ponzi scheme that only lasts as long as people believe in it, when people stop believing it starts collapsing and the bigger the scheme the slower the collapse is.
What the people in charge are doing is figuring out ways to dump as much on the little people as possible and maximise their offshore holdings before the whole thing collapses on our heads.

The reason that this isn't common knowledge is because the people in charge control the media.

>> No.58628918

>>58628852
The poster you're replying to isn't serious, but EMH doesn't imply a flat graph anyway.
Stocks are risk and time-adjusted future earnings, and EMH says that people who buy and sell stocks (or other securities) will use all available information to try and predict those earnings. But those estimates get updated by new information constantly, and future predictions always have a component of randomness which will change and get realized constantly to constantly change the price.
Under the EMH the price of a future for coin landing up heads would be $0.5, but in the end the graph isn't "flat" and you either get $0 or $1 due to randomness.

>> No.58628942

>>58628890
If you think rates are never coming down you can make a killing on the CME.

>> No.58629003

>>58628942
I think that if anything after the elections they're going to go up.

>> No.58629066

>>58628890
if the unemployment rate moons they will be forced to cut rates

>> No.58629138

>>58629066
While the national debt is growing this much? Absolutely zero chances of that happening. If unemployment continues to rise then gibs will also rise and continue the debt spiral, the entire point of raising interest rates is to get spending under control, this isn't happening so the only solution is to keep raising rates.

Or you could just continue to ignore economic reality and go full Weimar Germany and see how that works out for you.

Considering current demographics, I don't have very high expectations.

>> No.58629969

>>58629003
Start trading fed rate futures then.

>> No.58630370

>>58627981
everything is unfortunately
>>58628007
spot on
keep an eye on Supra launch

>> No.58630385
File: 906 KB, 1060x1499, 1 SsqqGRr2oM4fTv6hXDcqCA.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
58630385

>>58628727
>semi-strong EMH
dumb fuck

>> No.58630412

>>58630385
Here's a quote for you buddy:
>Post Sharpe ratio
>- Albert Einstein.

>> No.58630434

>>58630412
>sharpe ratio
i dont even know how to calculate that shit for low liquidity shitcoins ive dumped on people dawg

anyways the fundamental assumptions of semi-strong EMH are flawed as >>58628760 joked about

>> No.58630448
File: 932 KB, 1503x2834, thedata.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
58630448

>>58629138
so why does every market crash start with lowering interest rates, which coincides with unemployment rate skyrocketing?

>> No.58630551

>>58627981
literally everything you can think of is already priced in. the only things that arent priced in are the inexplicable. buy the rumor, sell the news

i would argue that understanding exactly what "priced in" means is the most important thing an investor can know

>> No.58630565

>>58628093
spx is like 40% tech stocks. the rest of the economy is crippled

>> No.58630575

>>58630448
because rates are lowered when they cripple the economy, and controlling skyrocketing unemployment is a core fed mandate. rate cutting is done when the recession hits, and companies ofc take a hit because everything is shit

>> No.58630919

>>58630575
so thats what i said, they will be forced to lower rate once ression hits.

>> No.58630937

>>58630448
Because the next market crash will bring down the United States as the global hegemon. Everything for the last 40+ years has been catastrophically mismanaged by people who are just winging it as they go along, all of their models, actions and justifications are thought up on the fly because they have no previous model to fall back on.
Obviously the people in charge of the system have a serious interest in keeping themself alive and they are currently doing everything they can to maintain the illusion they're still in control but they've never really been in control and the train has no brakes.

>> No.58631149

>>58629066
They’ll just cook the books as always. They already classify careers and gig work as the same thing.

>> No.58633260

>>58630937
>>58631149
so whats on your bags

>> No.58633272

>>58627981
Everything is priced in unless the price changes. Then it wasn't priced in.