/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.58623574]

So bizraelis, we have 3 plausible cycle tops:

1. March 2024, halving front run triple top scenario
2. November 2024, Trump election top signal normies scrambling to buy in because he muh win, like in 2016
3. September 2025, the 4 year cycle meme

Add your price expectation at the top for BTC ETH LINK

I'd say, if the top wasn't march the cycle top might be

BTC: 96k 120k range
ETH: 6k-7k range
LINK: 45-55 USD range

Discuss.

[Anonymous No.58623676]

>>58623574
>1. March 2024, halving front run triple top scenario
aCTUAL RETARD

[Anonymous No.58623703]

>>58623676
fpbp

[Anonymous No.58623735]

> 2. November 2024, Trump election top signal normies scrambling to buy in because he muh win, like in 2016
What are you even talking about?
Bitcoin has never cared about your politics.

> 3. September 2025, the 4 year cycle meme
There we go. Don't over complicate things.

BTC: $250k - $1M range
ETH: doesn't matter
LINK: kek

[Anonymous No.58623810]

Halvings are mechanical. The cycle is the cycle.

[Anonymous No.58624031]

>>58623574
Democrats in power are anticrypto and antibitcoin.
if that drooling retard wins the sector is fucked for another 4 years at least.
if trump wins, btc 1m in first 12 months.
check em and cap it.

[Anonymous No.58624127]

>>58623676
no real liquidity came into the market atm, etf is paper liquidity and it went in btc only, alts didn't move at all.
>>58623735
usually crypto pumps after elections, it did in 2016, it did in 2020
>>58623810
what if this time is unironically different? we're coming out a rate hike cycle, the biggest one after 2007, the recession was never avoided it has just been postponed
>>58624031
tell me about 2021

it's exactly because of reasoning like this that I think the bullrun will not be a 4 year cycle

[Anonymous No.58624133]

People really thinking this time it’ll be different

[Anonymous No.58624152]

>>58624133
Normies know about the 4 year cycle and Trump euphoria that pumped 2016, plus we're heading into depression not recession, check all the historical indicators, war is coming this time, plus a lot of fuckery like turbocovid pandemics and so on. Employment numbers are cooked and all the big shots in the nasdaq are selling or have sold already. What makes you think the pump will last well into 2025? the 4 year cycle meme?

[Anonymous No.58624160]

>>58623574
I am not fucking selling ever. I don’t care.

[Anonymous No.58624172]

>>58624127
> usually crypto pumps after elections, it did in 2016, it did in 2020
You're stretching the meaning of "pump" here.
Look at the chart around November 2016 and November 2020. The price action was already in a multi-month upward trend, and it just continued that trend. If you stared at the daily chart without seeing the horizontal axis and tried to guess which days were significant, you would never pick November 8.

[Anonymous No.58624187]

>>58623574
>>58623676
>>58623703

First post not best post, First post SHITE.

1. Because you had your caps lock on, but still mashed your shift key for the first letter, you RETARD.

2. OP is discussing an idea that is out there, that is discussed, that is gaining ground even. He does not even say he supports option 1 himself .

>3. This cycle is different.

>>58623810

[Anonymous No.58624241]

>>58623676
You’re so scared lmao

[Anonymous No.58624263]

>>58623676

[Anonymous No.58624351]

Halving frontrun and triple top is plausible I started thinking about it seeing how the bear market behaved in 2023, there was no upward momentum at all until eoy, considering it was pre bull, the accumulation should've been more aggressive but it hasn't happened, then in 2024 alts hugely underperformed and btc stays at 69k like insiders are keeping the volume up in order to swap their liquidity with the etf hype and selling at a hefty 4x for months straight now

[Anonymous No.58624355]

And the macro feels so much 2007 or even 1929 considering we're on the verge of ww3 and the incoming chinese led world order

[Anonymous No.58624365]

As long as SPX keeps going up, BTC is going up. Everything else is manipulation and FUD. It's the liquidity cycle combined with the halving effect. Probably a bunch of miners are capitulating

[Anonymous No.58624372]

>>58624365
This is why some alts are still +13% while BTC got yanked down. They simply have more control over BTC due to ETFs

Big fish are literally doing massive shorts on futures to go long on spot. Aka the famous gold/silver manipulation. Welcome to the new paradigm. 50-70k possibly forever

[Anonymous No.58624385]

>>58624365
Why would SPX keep going up if it's at ATH already? And why would they "capitulate" if BTC is at 69k? Also, why don't you factor in the mega bubble that NVIDIA is and how nasdaq major stock holders sold in feb/march, an election black swan is possible too. Like during covid

[Anonymous No.58624400]

>>58624385
A correction on ATH would be due unless it's frontrunning the election to rug next year, which the behavior of the nasdaq which usually dumps before the shitpiss500 would make assume since nasdaq is doing "fine" but the big boys already sold. something is off

[Anonymous No.58624428]

>>58624385
>Why would SPX keep going up if it's at ATH already?
Well, dont ask me, that's what it always does. Burger money automatically flows into that shit.
Last time, SPX had like 400+ days of bullmarket after crossing its ATH convincingly
> black swan is possible too
Sure, more likely war/conflict than something to do with elections. Sell if biden wins/rigs, of course.

OTOH a white swan is also possible too the Slav meatgrinder can stop tomorrow
>something is off
I disagree. Just because markets look high to you doesnt mean something is off. It's normal to be in in full 'only up' clownmode

[Anonymous No.58624435]

They haven't stopped printing funny money since 2009, why expect them to stop today?

[Anonymous No.58624454]

Not to mention, they are willing to swallow glowing hot coals to just to make biden's admin look good. possibly they'll rug when trump wins to blame it on him.

here, pic rel superimposes last bullrun onto the current one, and also accounts for diminishing returns on BTC
Dates are in europoorean format

[Anonymous No.58624500]

Last time SPX had a major drop there was FUD on every street corner starting with the Evergrande bullshit (september IIRC). Peak fud with "Omicron" variant (lol) of the fake ass covid in Dec 2021. I dont see anything like that today. Just a bunch of fake and gay wars that nobody cares about anymore. That said, it's just an analysis.

[Anonymous No.58624521]

The AI train isn't stopping either; it's the industrial revolution but on crack cocaine.

They're downplaying it currently because (1) we will literally see Deus Ex become real (I'm talking Man vs Machine shit, death and carnage, 'human revolution'), and (2) they need dems in charge, so that the AI can't say "nigger" even if it would save the planet.

Let's discuss. I think I put a bunch of interesting talking points.

[Anonymous No.58624539]

>>58624521
>I forgot:
(3) they also don't want to ruin the elections by releasing their AI. We all know the left can't meme. Right wing people would use AI to win the election by a landslide with the best memes in history. Another reason to wait until dem niggers secure the election.

[Anonymous No.58624551]

>>58624428
>Just because markets look high to you doesnt mean something is off. It's normal to be in in full 'only up' clownmode

Now look at the macro and the central banks speedrunning rate cuts ignoring previously stated inflation targets, fed rate cut in september will confirm the necessity of keeping up the markets for the election the reason as you said is ti blame it on Trump which he even said he doesn't want to be like the next herbert hoover (president during the great depression) also uk and french pms that are resigning and calling for election, there are shifts in place, they dont want to take the blame for what's coming.
>>58624435
they haven't stopped since the 1980s and will not stop now, we're heading to a weirmach hyperinflation scenario but that doesn't mean markets gongo up forever, it means it'll be a shitshow, the times for the tech bubble and clown speculation will soon be over when there is a real depression.
>>58624454
I agree with this, and Jan 25 is the last train I think, but now think about the inverse psychology for which normies will buy because muh pro crypto Trump won and also the fact that in 2007 markets collapsed 1 month after the first fed rate cut, as well as in 1929

clown markets fun will finish very soon, the matter is how big the blow off top will be but boomers will be left holding the etf bags

[Anonymous No.58624554]

why do you think blackcock is rushing with altcoin etfs such as ETH and maybe SOL as well lmao, they're greedy jews and are going all in with the scam, which means time is running out otherwise the eth etf would've come next year, now they even want to put solana in, they're frontrunning hard and central banks are in on it
>>58624521
AI bubble will pop within the next 6 months, check NVIDIA, it can't keep up

[Anonymous No.58624565]

>>58624539
They don't want to win, they just want to have enough seats to fuck with the next administration, they don't need memes they just need to rig it when needed, both trump and biden are controlled by the jews at the top, is just a shitshow, don't get derailed in politics

[Anonymous No.58624569]

The AI bubble will pop by eoy

[Anonymous No.58624586]

>>58624551
That would bring us to october-november 24 with pullback on christmas for normies to buy the "dip"

[Anonymous No.58624626]

>>58624551
Yeah, I think we both can agree that the end is approaching, but the when-abouts remain uncertain.
Agree, it will be weimar-like, possibly worse, with actual race wars erupting all over the west due to the replacement of whites in their own countries.
(In this analysis I think it benefits them to wait about 10 years for native white populations to be an absolute minority. Or 2030, after future conflict + an influx of even more brown people)

>uk and french pms that are resigning and calling for election,
I think they will attempt the same tactic as in Netherlands:
1) Gov't resigns
2) People vote for populist party
3) Oops, the populist party was a wolf in sheeps clothing, back to business as usual (now with mossad in charge)

> they dont want to take the blame for what's coming
Thats possible too. But to me it seems more likely that these rising political parties like AfD (germany), PVV (netherlands) RN (france) etc. is "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" shit, rather than total fall guys.

>now think about the inverse psychology for which normies will buy because muh pro crypto Trump won
Yes, that sounds like the ultimate way to get people to buy the top.
Maybe its simply: Sell in november regardless of who wins, kek.

>clown markets fun will finish very soon, the matter is how big the blow off top will be but boomers will be left holding the etf bags
Agree

All in all we have similar ideas. Personally, I think we have a little more time left. I think there's going to be one more liquidity cycle, just before/during 2030 which I think will be the final one. I guess they call it agenda 2030 for a reason

[Anonymous No.58624674]

>>58624554
>AI bubble will pop within the next 6 months, check NVIDIA, it can't keep up
I agree NVDA has seen most of its gains. but Nvidia is not everyone involved in 'muh AI'. I think there is going to be another party that rises up. Possibly something to do with robotics or some shit. It can't just be goddamn GPUs forever. That's for sure.

>The AI bubble will pop by eoy
Here I semi-disagree, but that's because I personally think it's not a bubble. (Downplaying argument)

>That would bring us to october-november 24 with pullback on christmas for normies to buy the "dip"
This I can agree with, but more as a general timing thing. Cycles can only last so long. And yes I guess it would cause the AI shit to go down too. Unless the sector comes with some huge paradigm shifting thing / ends the downplaying of it.

Either that, or it (AI) really is just a scam and a bubble.

True, the current best LLMs are pretty much useless dogshit for most people, outside some small niches. But it seems to me they are still betting big on replacing loads of human workers.

Cheers anon, interesting discussion

[Anonymous No.58624701]

>>58623810
Now actually update 2024 with the candles you faggot

[Anonymous No.58624887]

Come on faggots, ISuQKkH0 and I didn't write all that shit for laughs. Let's get some opinions

[Anonymous No.58625013]

>>58624127
>the recession was never avoided
Recession already happened. The cycle is the cycle, global liquidity influences magnitude, but nothing can alter the cycle.

[Anonymous No.58626341]

>>58624133
go take a piss anon

[Anonymous No.58626685]

>>58624152
>Normies know about the 4 year cycle
nigger i mentioned cyrpto and my boomer coworker looked at me and said, "wait, that's still going on?"

[Anonymous No.58626716]

>>58624887
I listen to denis richards, follow the price action, as long as there's 10% swings you can always set tight stop losses and let your good ones runs. If it mega pumps don't ask questions, buy, when you're way up, just sit on your hands and enjoy your wins. Who the fuck cares about who's in office, or long term charts or any of that shit. Just follow the price actions and make solid moves and jerk off in your free time.

[Anonymous No.58626825]

>>58623574
>3. September 2025, the 4 year cycle meme
why are you pretending like you know what you're talking about? why call 2025 a meme when it happens almost exactly the same way every time? it's going higher than this and you're going to be my exit liq retard

[Anonymous No.58628573]

>>58624674
LLMs are a meme and not AI. that's all you need to know to understand it's a bubble. actual AI will be emergent and not a fucking app that you open on your phone. you will most likely be completely unaware of its existence but it will control everything you think and do.

you'll know the LLM bubble is about to pop when MSM starts running stories about the singularity.

[Anonymous No.58629786]

>>58624127
Of course it happens after elections dummy it's part of the 4 year cycle. It's like pointing put that leap year and the summer olympics also happen in presidential election years

[Anonymous No.58629864]

>>58628573
It literally doesn't matter what you think is AI. All you're doing is arguing semantics.

[Anonymous No.58629874]

>>58624127
>no real liquidity came into the market atm, etf is paper liquidity and it went in btc only, alts didn't move at all.
Alts did move, just not the garbage alts from 2017 and 2020. Memecoins went parabolic

There was a 1000x memecoin launch seemingly every day in march 2024, was impossible not to make money on Solana.

[Anonymous No.58629904]

>>58623574
Politicians talking about crypto is bearish because it means they're pandering for votes -> masses already own crypto and are voting based on it -> nobody left to buy.

I'm split between 1 and 3. I think we flush until January 2025 and then run up until November 2025. Memecoins are probably dead though aside from some winners.