/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.57632952]

Hi /biz/ sorry if this is the wrong board

Can anyone explain to me what the fuck is going on in the housing market? I'm trying to buy a house but it's impossible, I read every day the situation is untenable and it will crash 2008 style but when is that? What do you think?

[Anonymous No.57633014]

>>57632952
Summer.

[Anonymous No.57633050]

>>57632952
it is soft landing

[Anonymous No.57633220]

>>57632952
- Boomer policy managers circa 1950 have a genius idea: popularizing the mortgage. Everyone gets to live in a house without immediately buying it. Great! More dignity and affluence for everyone!
- This is no problem financially. As long as people work, they can afford a house. Wages are rising up through the 1960s, so the trend should continue.
- Uh oh. It's the 1970s, and wages aren't rising with productivity anymore... well whatever, as long as productivity's rising the wealth will be spread around anyway, right?
- Oops, the 1980s passed and the wealth didn't spread around. It turns out that wealth is accumulating at the top! Well that's no big deal, global economic growth in the 1980s was insane so people's net worths are still increasing. And besides, now that folks are paying off their 30-year-mortgages from the 50s, they can start selling their houses for big money! BIG money!
- It's the year 2000. Wow, this housing market is getting crazy! People are making so much money selling their houses - they're basically an investment vehicle. All these residential properties are a limited resource, too - after all, there's only so much land around key global cities available. Houses clearly aren't just for living, they're for accumulating value towards retirement
- Thanks to a beneficent government, even the poor are able to take out mortgages now. Finally, everyone can own their own home. Often they can't afford them, and banking policies are quite loose, but so what? It's not like housing can just crash all at once.

[Anonymous No.57633231]

>>57632952
>>57633220
- Uh oh.
- Whew, glad that's over! It's now 2012, and housing prices are recovering just like we knew they would. Thanks to quantitative easing by governments globally (in other words inflationary free money courtesy of Ben Bernanke and co.), buying a house is easier than ever. At least for those with access to bank loans, haha. The poor can rent instead - no big deal. It's their own fault for what happened last decade.
- Yes, prices are shooting up, and these investment vehicles are really paying dividends. After all, you don't want to crash the housing market again, do you? These are people's retirement funds! They cost so much, and so much of people's net worth is tied into these giant single investments, it would be political and economic suicide to endure another housing crash. It. Cannot. Happen. Housing prices must go up at all costs.
- Cheap housing? No, not in my backyard. Limited selling as houses accumulate in value? Yes, these are investments after all. Restricted building? Of course, these boxes are expensive and we can't put them just anywhere! You renting for the rest of your life unless you can afford 10% down on a $500,000 flat? Yes. It's either that or an economic crash vaporizing millions of jobs and also vaporizing millions of people's retirement funds, in other words the values of their homes. Some policy managers will allow their jurisdictions to crash, destroying their middle class's already shrinking pool of wealth. Others will use fairy dust to inflate the problem away ala more quantitative easing, damaging their currencies instead. Place your bets.

[Anonymous No.57633388]

>>57633231
tldr
quick rundown?

[Anonymous No.57633512]

>>57633220
>>57633231
Thank you for explaining it so concisely and easy to understand.
I'd bet on the first since that's never been a problem and people seem content enough to rent away 70% of their income or work 80 hours a week to live like paupers as long as the propaganda machine tells them there are other more pressing issues (refugees, climate change, defending freedom and democracy from evil Russia etc) and I'm not even sure voting against it does anything. They'll just pull stunts like create more pods to live in for the working cattle and the age of owning houses will be over pretty soon in places that are not rural middle of nowhere, I guess.

[Anonymous No.57633559]

>>57633388
You fucking tiktok attention span zoomer shit, ywnmi

[Anonymous No.57633720]

>>57633220
>>57633231
Bullshit, it will crash. Boomers are going to die soon and the population will decline. No, immigration won’t solve the problem, it will make it worse. Greed can make it only up a certain point, the market will set the price, accounting rules

[Anonymous No.57633735]

>>57633050
/this
A -8% net yearly for the next 20 years is what you are looking for