Bitcoin halving VS Recession Indicators

[Anonymous No.57556786]

So in theory Bitcoin has quite bullish indicators, at least on the short to medium (somewhat) time

>We are about 2 months away from the 2024 halving and it always precedes increase in Bitcoin prices (at the time of this thread)
>The rest of the market is sure to follow
>Bitcoin ETFs approved recently
>Blackrock (and others) chipping in
>Good Fear/Greed indicators (so far)
>Fair FOMO sentiment among retail
>SEC demonstrating positive attitude towards Bitcoin trading and exchanges

With all of these combined, Bitcoin is basically set up for a nice bullrun

>Even if short-lived or shorter than expected

Below I will post contrary forces to the imminent Bitcoin halving

[Anonymous No.57556817]

>>57556786
As for the next part, let's start discussing

>Bad Macro Charts (Really Bad Stuff)

First of is the extremely awful Treasury Bond Yield Curve inverting

>It always leads to a recession (or worse, a depression)
>Curiously, it looks like it's a very close match to the date of the Bitcoin halving

[Anonymous No.57556857]

>>57556786
We've BEEEEEEN in a recession, you dumb normie

[Anonymous No.57556859]

>>57556786
And finally, we have the S&P500 VS Federal Reserve Funds chart

>Some people have been speculating the FED will have to cut rates down to curb unemployment
>I do sincerely believe real unemployment numbers are cooked (not sure how cooked)

[Anonymous No.57556937]

Finally, let's add

>Ok, anon. So what?

I think that we are about to get into a really bad recession (possibly a depression) because all macro indicators are aligned

This will likely affect this bullrun

>At least it's starting phase

If it's bad enough it could completely cancel it since people will be forced to sell assets just to survive
Which means

>I think this will be another "Sell The News" event shortly after this Bitcoin halving
>A dip is certain to happen


But it could just crash Bitcoin to as low as 15-20K USD and drag us into an even longer bear market.


What do you guys think of all this?

Micro trends are positive, Macro trends are awful.

[Anonymous No.57557059]

>>57556786
I know i'm missing out on some gains, but im pretty much all in on TFLO rn getting about 5% returns until the inevitable recession happens. I don't know when it will happen, but I'm guessing around the election, and probably after. If the recession happens before the election, people will likely vote Trump, so the powers that be will try to delay a recession within the parameters of their control. It's a win-win if the recession happens after the election since they could blame it on Trump, or at least keep Biden in office without a recession swaying the vote to the right, so they can use the crisis for their own agenda.

[Anonymous No.57557145]

>>57556937
>Micro trends are positive, Macro trends are awful.
Any gains made right now will probably be wiped from the recession. I'm guessing we have about a year, but who knows. Fed is cutting rates, so the markets will decline shortly thereafter. It could be late spring since they will cut them in March. How often do they meet to change the rates?

[Anonymous No.57557589]

>>57556937
> sub 20k
Highly unlikely

[Anonymous No.57557618]

>>57556937
I’m retard maxing and don’t understand all this fancy stuff. Will my dog coins moon before then so I can get in cheap on btc, or will they continue to moon after as retards buy out of desperation?

[Anonymous No.57557642]

>>57556786
Even if there is a recession this year, the news and media will hide it until after the election. Then blame it on Trump if he wins.

I would expect the crash to happen in 2025, this might affect btc's peak. Bear market in 2026 for sure though.

[Anonymous No.57557687]

>>57557589
One question will be is if BTC actually does act as a hedge like gold.
>inb4 the covid panic
Gold dipped durring the short lived covid panic along with all other assets. So I don't really think that indicates that BTC would fare poorly in a recession.

[Anonymous No.57558284]

>>57557059
>>57557145

Those graphs further strengthen my point that it'll likely become a "Sell The News" type of scenario.

>>57557589
Last bear market we had 17k USD as the bottom of Bitcoin.
It wouldn't be unrealistic or unlikely at all.

>>57557642
This is the most likely scenario.
If Joe Biden "wins" again you can totally expect the crash to happen around 2025 or perhaps 2026, even

>>57557687
It all depends on normies, really.
I wouldn't be using fiat currencies if I weren't forced to, but here we are.

My guess is quite simple

>I'm a normie
>I suddenly have no money due to inflation because there is too much currency around
>Better liquidate my assets which retain value in order to get more said inflated currency

Tokenomics, finance analysis and personal decisions are all shine and dandy in paper,
but in practice normies gonna norm during all recession times.

Has always been like this.

[Anonymous No.57558638]

>>57558284
I'm rotating out of crypto and going all in on tech stocks. I don't have much money anyway so i can't make big crypto plays. I also have terrible luck with picking shitcoins...so it's safer not to burn my money on dogshit.

I'm basically day trading on stocks trying to get as much going as I can now as a back up if my savings get wasted.

[Heir of Sigma No.57558972]

>>57558638
It's too late for this.

Facebook is already on it's top, for example.

[Anonymous No.57560866]

>>57558638
Try political shitcoins