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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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574079 No.574079 [Reply] [Original]

Are you ready for the imminent 50% crash ?

>> No.574081

You didn't do the thread right.

>> No.574082

>>574079

been building my cash position for years, I've lost out on the last two year rally. Bring it the fuck on (or else I've made a huge mistake)

>> No.574088

>>574082
You've made a huge mistake.

>> No.574094

>>574088

literally nothing was solved after the 08 crash. The next "correction" is likely to be a depression, and it will come within the year. Where I'm from this is pretty much common knowledge.

>> No.574098

>>574094

So I just short the entire market now? Thank you so much for making me rich man! I can't believe it was that easy!

>> No.574099

>>574094
Where are you from?

>> No.574100

>>574094
>Where I'm from this is pretty much common knowledge
Well it's wrong. U.S. equities are still going to perform well in 2015.

>> No.574112

>>574099

west virginia

>>574100

glad you are smarter than the entire financial services industry that is predicting tepid growth at best, crash at worst for 2015. this is why I come to /biz/

>> No.574118

>>574112
>predicting tepid growth at best
The analysis I'm sent shows reasonable growth predictions for 2015. It's not insanely high, but certainly not "tepid".

>> No.574165

They keep talking about a correction on cnbc, but it is unlikely to wipe out even half of this year's gains.

>> No.574248

>>574094
If it was common knowledge, market would reflect that, smartass

>> No.574250

>>574112
>the entire financial services industry that is predicting tepid growth at best

Source? Does not reflect what I read.

>> No.574252

I wish we had real mods that would ban you

>> No.574260

>>574252
You can't ban me, I have a 4chan pass.

>> No.574291

>>574165
Easy solution to CNBC talking about a crash: Don't fucking listen to CNBC. Seriously, you're not learning a fucking thing you couldn't from ANY other place, and likely most of what you're hearing is just dead air filled with fucking morons, who were wrong in the past, wrong in the present, and will continue to be wrong.

Seriously, CNBC makes REGULAR analysts look good, and that's a special fucking feat.

>> No.574300

>>574260
>on /biz/
>With a captcha pass
middle class detected

>> No.574301

>>574260
>having a captcha pass
>moot is currently testing captcha-less testing on /pol/

Epic fail IMO

>> No.574302

>>574301
captcha-less posting*

I fail too, alas

>> No.574303

>>574301
Time to sue

>> No.574326

>>574094
Except they're no longer making and pushing subprime, collateralized mortgage debts. You know, the major impetus behind that crash.

>> No.574375

>>574248

The market reflects what the people who run the market want it to reflect.

If you're not looking at the numbers and thinking something is seriously wrong, they're doing a good job.

>> No.574428

>>574165
>but it is unlikely to wipe out even half of this year's gains

What's the point of a crash if I can't buy shares at bargain basement prices from people who can't make their margin calls? Jesus Christ, the economy is so fucked we can't even shit the bed proper anymore.

>> No.574450

>>574079
>>574413
why will it crash, need facts

>> No.574456

>>574100
>>574112
Back in 2007 the fed chairman came out and said that his experts have checked and the economy was as strong as it ever was. Well, we know what happened after that.
>>574326
Subprime mortgage won't happen again, there will just be another fiasco. Maybe a world bubble will pop. Japan is subprime nation, with its debt to current gross domestic product at 240%. China wasted 7 trillion in the last 3 years on bridges and highways to nowhere.
Pretty soon we are going to be told to get rid of the dollar. Alright maybe not that far, but yes, that far.

>> No.574459

>>574450
It will crash because central banking is a failure. Having a central bank artificially lower interest rates enable and encourage investors to make risky nonsensical endeavors. If people saved their money, banks would naturally have more to lend, and interest rates would lower on their own. When a crash happens, we are simply reassessing what is useful and what is wasteful. The worst part about these things is that society is poorer instead of richer so we can invest in some science to get off this rock.

>> No.574493

Does this mean I don't need to study for my exams this week?

>> No.574501

>>574459
I know right.

But what part of the cycle are we in? What looming problems might cause a crash?

China shadow banking system, EU debt crisis re-emerging, some obscure financial instrument or sector of the economy about to collapse.

We are in an old bull market and bull markets don't last forever, but there may not be a crash, there could be a stagnation like the 70s which in some respects is even worse because you can't step in and buy the dip while everyone else is panicking.

>> No.574533

>>574456

>back in 2007

He was right. Back then, the economy was strong. That's like the definition of a crisis- the point in time before which the economy was strong.

>Japan is a subprime nation

Kyle Bass pls. You obviously know nothing about Japan.

>>574459

>if people saved their money, banks would naturally have more to lend

And who the fuck would they lend to, faggot? If everybody is a net saver, then ipso facto nobody's a net borrower. Right now:

*Housholds are saving money to pay down their mortgages on underwater loans
*Corporations are saving money because they were traumatized as fuck in 2008 with their repos blowing up
*The rest of the world is frantically accumulating US Dollars in order to prevent a currency crisis
*Which leaves government to be the ones to borrow, but they're trying to do austerity.

Rates aren't "artificially" low, they're low because there's so much goddamn money out there trying to be saved that rates are being bid down to 0. If the Fed really was trying to hold down rates that "wanted" to be higher, then the eurodollar deposit rate wouldn't be at 0.17% versus the Fed's 0.25%.

>> No.574684

>>574301
Have you een to /pol/? The only thing this is gonna do is make double-capchas

>> No.574730

So if a crash is coming and I have all my money in GBP, should I just buy USD right now? Surely it's a guaranteed increase in my wealth once the financial world turns to shit.

>> No.574959

>>574684
what the fuck is going on in /pol/ right now

>> No.574960

>>574684
it seems like it got haxored.exe
>>574456
global crash seems like the logical step the national one from 07-08
-maybe bonds have been inflated for a while
and shitty fan

>> No.574962

>>574493
you should study for your exams because education isn't free and take advantage of the opportunity
what about butttmunch africa where they can't even booklearning

>> No.574993

>>574959
Ben Garison who makes political cartoons called moot the ceo of troll ink because he doesn't remove the cartoons that have been heavily shopped. So moot is living up to the name and trolling pol.

>> No.575005

>>574993
they shouldn't have fucked with Ben Garrison, he is a highly intelligent libertarian intellectual who knows how to utilize free speech

>> No.575033

I see these crash threads every Sunday. Never see any except on Sundays. Is it a troll?

>> No.575075
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575075

>>575033

>> No.575569

>>574326
except for my guido friends who are all getting the same exact loans for their gaudy houses and their blitzy ho wives. Anecdotal experience means jack shit, but this is still a very prevalent thing, as widespread as before.

>> No.575705

Dow down 100 and falling.
They were right!

>> No.575726

AAPL drops another 2.5%
TWTR drops 5.7%
ENERGY STOCKS DIE SOME MORE

ITS FUCKING CRASHENING

>> No.575729

Please crash

>> No.575736

>>575726
oh please, the S&P dropped 3/4ths of 1%, and 1-3year treasuries barely moved. it's hardly even considered a correction, much less a crash. Your fault for speculating on highly volatile energy and tech stocks with huge specific risk

>> No.575817

>>575005
you dipshits, the JIDF is raiding /pol/ because Israel is bombing Syria and will invade soon according to the Yinon Plan/Blood Borders.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/06/23/israel-bombs-targets-in-syria-in-response-to-boy-death/

Everything is going as planned.

Combined with the Israeli oil spill this is going to fuck the markets up, especially the oil sector.

>> No.576306

just letting u know that shanghai crashed 5% tonight as well as china at 2.5%

tomorrow will be a big day

$YANG, $UVXY, $DGAZ

>> No.576346

Just buy the fucking dip

>> No.576562

ITS FUCKING CRASHENING SOME MORE

>> No.576564

>>576562
in b4 2%

>> No.576565
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576565

>>574375
>who run the market

Except that there's a lot of people who 'run' the 'market', whatever market you're referring to. And all of them are in it to make money, and if there was an impending crash that was common knowledge they wouldn't give a shit about what they 'want it to reflect' and would short now to make money.

But there isn't a massive rush out the door happening, how surprising. It's almost as if you don't know what the fuck you're talking about

>> No.576577

Happening general?

>> No.576579

>>576565
This post and the almost unbearable amount of ass-blasting included within made me very happy to read.

>>574375
>>574094
>hurr durr le conspiracy to steal eberyone's monies!!!

>> No.576630

>>576579
Feel free to elaborate on the ass-blasting parts, I'll don my tinfoil hat

>> No.576642

>>576630
I think you're confused. I was saying that you blasted those retards in the ass.

>> No.577246

>>576565

>Except that there's a lot of people who 'run' the 'market', whatever market you're referring to.

The "market" I'm "referring to" is the one in the post I responded to, i.e., the same one you, me, and everyone else thinks of when you hear the word "market" on this forum. Deliberate obtuseness is neither cute nor supportive of your position.

But no, there aren't many people who run that market, relatively speaking. There may be a lot of people who think they do, however, which is precisely the issue.

>And all of them are in it to make money,

Some make money in different ways than others, more specifically by leading others to believe they are the ones making money.

>and if there was an impending crash that was common knowledge

The operative phrase being "common knowledge". This is really like a group of dine-and-dashers at an all-you-can-eat buffet. Half the table knows they can't pay the bill. Half the cooks know they don't have enough food in the back to keep the trays full forever. But no one leaves and no one stops cooking, because there's still some food left to eat.

>they wouldn't give a shit about what they 'want it to reflect' and would short now to make money. But there isn't a massive rush out the door happening, how surprising.

See above. There's no need to rush out when you can leave someone else holding the bag. There's no need to short when you can make more money stacking some more cards on the house.

>It's almost as if you don't know what the fuck you're talking about

As I said before, the numbers are there for your inspection. You can believe what you like.

>> No.577940

>>574098
No, because the market will continue to rise in nominal terms. The Fed will print until we hyperinflate, period. No way to stop (stealth) QE, no way to stop ZIRP (or god help us NIRP, which seems to be peaking at us from around the corner now).

>> No.577955

>>577940
>The Fed will print until we hyperinflate, period

Printing dollars and isolating them in excess reserves will have the same effect on inflation as culturing Ebola and isolating them in a BHL-4 lab will on infections.

If it can't reach the general population it can't do shit.

>> No.577964

>>577955
B-b-but the evil fiat is going to be worthless

>> No.577969

>>577964

Then what's going to have worth, my nigga?

Gold? Bitcoin? Lol.

>put yer money in da gold

>> No.577974

>>577969
The gold backed Bitcoins minted with good Ol' Ronnie Reagan's holding a bible on them clearly.

>> No.577977

>>577964
Ok, hold all your assets in cash for the next 20 years then. I'm sure you'll be fine.

If the dollar is still around in 20 years, it will be the longest lasting fiat currency in human history. This should tell you something, but most people prefer not to learn the lessons of history.

>> No.577981

>>577977
>the longest lasting fiat currency in human history
The U.S. is also the most powerful nation in human history.
>people prefer not to learn the lessons of history
Global economics are radically different from what they were historically.

>> No.577983

>>577955
>excess reserves

You do realize that the Fed pays interest on excess reserves, which goes straight into circulation, right?

You do realize that the second they stop doing that, the banks will withdraw the money and buy assets with it, right?

Oh, you didn't realize that? What's that? Because you are completely unable to think even a single step ahead?

Ok, I see why you have such stupid ideas then.

>> No.578008

>>577983

If you seriously think that a 0.25% IOER rate is a powerful enough tool to completely sterilize $2.5tn worth of cash with zero adverse effects, please explain why the US has not zeroed all taxes and fund with dollar-printing, since that will cause no inflation due to this magic IOER we're paying.

Also, while you're at it, explain why we would stop using what is apparently the most powerful monetary tool ever discovered by mankind just because the recession ended?

(Hint: It's because the bank's willingness to hold ER is a function of their desire for safe assets at any yield, and not a desire to collect a 25bps spread on their sight deposits)

>> No.578968

what? its crashing ? is the great depression 2.0 coming !?