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2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance

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56985326 No.56985326 [Reply] [Original]

How do you guys choose to ignore the current inverted yield curve, the indicator that predicted the last 8 recessions? I just see you guys talking about a golden bull run, while I sit like an effendi and wait for the sale

>> No.56985770
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56985770

>>56985326
Markets top when the rates are frozen. Euphoria will peak once reality kicks in. They are once again, buying the soft landing narrative.

>> No.56985830

>>56985326
>>56985770
>coping

>> No.56986668

>>56985830
>projecting

>> No.56986675

>>56985326
This time is different

>> No.56987435

>>56985770
Any high IQ anons who can do some real forecasting based on this

>> No.56987465

>>56987435
They are going to print more money. They said they’re doing for rate cuts next year and the deficit is ballooning. So maybe the market will go up. But will it beat inflation?

>> No.56987466

>>56987435
what bears seem to miss is that interest rates by themselves won't cause a recession. 08 was caused by banks blowing up, which won't happen this time, for now at least. we have around 20 years until interest payments are more than yearly income for the us, so, what would actually cause a recession here and now? Theoretically we can just inflate our money away virtually indefinitely.

>> No.56987543

The curves been inverted for almost a whole year, the longest deepest inversion in history. Bonds have been negative 3 years in a row, the longest consecutive losing streak for bonds in history. Inflation spent 12 years at rock bottom despite 30% of gross GDP being used to buy bonds.

I think they successfully inflated the US economy out of a recession and exported that inflation globally. The bite back from that is a weaker standing for the dollar globally, as you can see by the increase in EUR and RMB trade. This does spell doom for the US economy in the long run, however the death of the dollar was always going to be an inflationary event, we did know that. I think the events that have transpired to achieve this soft landing are increased wealth disparity, as the inflation is soaked by corporations, and an increasing polarization of China and Saudi’s from the US economy.

Consider the fact that real yields have been enormously positive the past 3 years as well, that’s something else to take into account that is unlike the lead up to covid or the aftermath of 2008.