Pre-2019 default

[Anonymous No.56844145]

Heard about this theory about the system being rigged before the pandemics, and some people used COVID-19 to default the inevitable bailouts.

Does /biz/ have any graphics proving this theory?
I'll post what I have.

[Anonymous No.56844160]

[Anonymous No.56844174]

[Anonymous No.56844179]

[Anonymous No.56844594]

so what does that fucking mean

[Anonymous No.56844631]

>>56844594
it means that we delayed the recession that was supposed to happen in 2019, just about 10 years since the last recession, which is right about the typical time frame for a recession in a healthy economy. so its been delayed for 4 years now and the recession will be much worse. they cant print any more money to delay it anymore, hence why big institutions are buying BTC and property to keep their money safe

[Anonymous No.56844642]

>>56844160
Hmm didn't realize we are that inverted. Hahaha this is literally the last bullrun before the world ends. Sad that my millions will just go into rifles and armor

[Anonymous No.56844673]

>>56844642
risk assets usually rally into recessions. its because people want to disregard what is inevitable. if you made money like me in this year of constant rally, congrats. exit the fuck out by january though. once that shit un-inverts its 2008 but 3x worse at minimum

[Anonymous No.56844809]

>>56844145
>>56844631
This seems half true and half conspiracy.

If you don't know the backstory, banking has never really recovered fully after the GFC in 08. The fed flooded the system with reserves, monetizing about 1/3 of the fractional reserve system, which made it very easy for banks to pass reserve requirements. So we went from a system where there was a need for banks to obtain reserves, and so banks themselves paid interest to people who lent money, to a system where there is an excess of reserves, banks aren't stressed for reserves, and banks only earn interest because the gov pays them yield on reserves, interest is paid by the gov from money printing instead of by banks to borrow.

Now the intention was to eventually reverse this by tightening, QT to unwind QE, the whole reason why QT wasn't supposed to be inflationary in the end is because it would be reversed. So the fed started doing this in 2025 slowly with increasing pace. Now there is a certain point where the reserves in the system go from ample to scarce, that is the point where banks need to restart a robust interbank lending and arbitrage system to ensure every bank can borrow the reserves they need. So its a rough transition, and this is assumed to happen in 2019 with the repo crisis, short term rates sky rocketed and the fed had to open up the repo facility to bailout the banks. Its not clear why banks couldn't handle it, maybe because it had been so long since they had to deal with scarcity, or it was too quick a transition, or because new regulation like Dodd-Frank made it too hard.

This is what happened in 2019, it was a basically a failure of the entire theory that QE could be reversed and not be inflationary. /backstoy

[Anonymous No.56844812]

>>56844673
Halvening is March so I expect 2024 to be a bullrun then cash out for tax December.

[Anonymous No.56844827]

>>56844809
Now what I think is BS is that they "caused" covid to cover it up because they had already bailed out the system again in 2019. Your image is also retarded because its linear scale for an exponential rise. Fiat inflation exponentially so any chart of anything on a long enough time frame will look like its spiking to plummeting. Although shutdowns were highly deflationary and maybe gave cover to print a lot more money, there was whiplash afterwards and now we are at way more risk of inflation because the perception that inflation could never rise again was shattered. And the strength of the fiat system is much weaker post covid than pre. I just can't see how covid would have helped. Unless the gov is just retarded and "caused" covid and it backfired.

[Anonymous No.56844892]

>>56844809
Let me tldr for people

The slightest unwinding of QE immediately leads to collapse. Only option is inflation into neo feudalism.

[Anonymous No.56845015]

>>56844673
>>56844812
I'm thinking we hit the new ATH somewhere between december 2024 and April 2025

[Anonymous No.56845178]

>>56844827
>linear scale for an exponential rise
>and now we are at way more risk of inflation because the perception that inflation could never rise again was shattered
You are retarded.
>>56844809
>the whole reason why QT wasn't supposed to be inflationary in the end is because it would be reversed. So the fed started doing this in 2025
>monetizing about 1/3 of the fractional reserve system, which made it very easy for banks to pass reserve requirements
lold at bitcoin kid

[Anonymous No.56845212]

>>56844809
>>56845178
oh meant 2015, not 2025 btw for when they started tightening again.

[Anonymous No.56845320]

>>56845212
Here’s what going to happen. Btc to the moon in 2024 and then everything goes to fucking shit after that.

[Anonymous No.56845384]

Walllstreet bets was under 100k members back then and had true quality. There was a few professional guys who were in finance researching repo exposure in emerging markets. There was a spreadsheet/github floating around that had incredible data on thousands of banks.

TLDR: Basically every bank in the developing world is massively illiquid and can only maintain operation from the fed/usa

[Anonymous No.56845403]

>>56844631
Thoughts on this chart? if we have had the highest rate hikes ever, and the economy has not yet fully absorbed the new rates in terms of companies' debt updated to the higher rates and families having their morgages raised too etc etc, wouldn't this mean again that by the time they start lowering rates, it would mean it was no longer sustainable and they had insider info that shit was breaking appart? what else could happen?

could we see a lowering of rates with a continued bull run?

There's a discussion here and eveyone except OP says that rates going lower are bullish. >>56845028

[Anonymous No.56845444]

>>56845320
Article related by Arthur Hayes btw:
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/bad-gurl-4f64187e9bda

If you think he doesn’t have insider info you’re trippin

[Anonymous No.56845447]

>>56845403
Retards. Stock market always bottoms AFTER fed cuts rates. Anyone in finance more than 20 years knows this but we ain't telling zoomies shit.

[Anonymous No.56845473]

>>56845320
I 100% agree with this. I just hope it doesn't.

[Anonymous No.56845691]

>>56845447
So OP is right?
Meanwhile as the rates flatten, it can still go higher isn't it?
What are your price predictions? im considering buying Microstrategy because I want BTC exposure without having to deal with scam exchanges.

[Anonymous No.56845708]

Additional question, is TLT a good move? since im from Europe, I would be buying this, which is AA+ gov euro bonds of 20+ maturity. It's starting to go up. Can I assume that the rates will go down from there? Even if they are kept the same, if they go down eventually, the market will discount that, so I can see this shit going higher. Even if they don't lower rates to 0-1, maybe 2% is a realistic chance? afaik every 1% lowered means 20% gains on a 20 year maturation index fund bond as far as i've read, aprox. So my strategy is to buy 50% of this, and 50% Microstrategy for BTC exposure without getting cockblocked by my bank if I tried to send like 200k€ into a shitcoin exchanger. Basically Microstragey has almost full correlation with BTC by now and is managed by someone that knows wtf is BTC unlike the boomers that will run the ETFs.

[Anonymous No.56846570]

>>56845444
>Hayes
You worship a nigger