/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.56773839]

Daily reminder that the bitcoin 4 year cycle is an IQ test.

Is this time different?

[Anonymous No.56773846]

>>56773839
no? it just gets less and less potent, which is a good thing goy

[Anonymous No.56773854]

its only been 2 years though

[Anonymous No.56773943]

>>56773839
I say conservatively the first top will be between 80k and 100k. With a blowoff thanks to normies remembering it exists and fomoing at the top which will push to 100-120k.

Then it's bagholder time

[Anonymous No.56774100]

>>56773839
Adjusting for the money supply, the last cycle was different. Bitcoin severely underperformed when you consider the large amount of liquidity and money printing during the last cycle and did not pass the previous cycle ATH. Most of this is due to the gatekeeping of an ETF in the US market and the China mining ban. This coming cycle will not have of these headwinds and Bitcoin will easily outperform the previous cycle when adjusting for liquidity and the money supply.

[Anonymous No.56774319]

>>56773839
We crashing bigtime

[Anonymous No.56774337]

>>56773846
>>56774100
Last post halving returns were 700% for BTC. 800% the cycle before that. Hardly significantly "less potent".

[Anonymous No.56774361]

>>56773839
Bitcoin has never endured a recession this times different. Check em

[Anonymous No.56774367]

>>56773854
>4 years ago was 2 years ago
wtf time flies

[Anonymous No.56774370]

85-90k top
Everyone waiting for that magic 100k will be left holding their nuts and their bag

[Anonymous No.56774392]

>>56773839
dome theory

[Anonymous No.56774432]

>>56773854
We are still in bear market.

[Anonymous No.56774457]

>>56774100
No it was because people (wisely) aped into alts since thats were the gains are to be made.

[Anonymous No.56774475]

>>56774337
You forgetting something?

[Anonymous No.56774559]

>>56774475
I will bite - like what?

[Anonymous No.56774586]

>>56774370
Nope, it’s going to blow straight through $100,000. It’s a significant milestone that will be similar to hitting $10,000.

You’ll likely see a blow off top reach $214,000 or so before the next bear market starts and it will go -65% down to a new low of $74,900

How did I come up with these figures? I have autism and I watch the bitcoin chart everyday since 2015 and I can see where everything lays

Screenshot this for future reference if you want to feel special about having been here when the future was written out for you

[Anonymous No.56774605]

>>56774370 #
Nope, it’s going to blow straight through $100,000. It’s a significant milestone that will be similar to hitting $10,000.

You’ll likely see a blow off top reach $214,000 or so before the next bear market starts and it will go -65% down to next cycle low of $74,900

How did I come up with these figures? I have autism and I watch the bitcoin chart everyday since 2015 and I can see where everything lays

Screenshot this for future reference if you want to feel special about having been here when the future was written out for you

[Anonymous No.56774606]

>>56774559
Memory holed already anon?

[Anonymous No.56774680]

>>56774559
he's referring to March 2020. The biggest economic shock the real economy has had in our lifetimes. The sort of event that happens once every decade. Its not even worth thinking about in the context of this cycle, but even if some type of event like that comes along you have to time to react. Stocks only nuked in March but China locked down in Feb so the crash didn't really come out of nowhere; arguably it wasn't even a black swan

[Anonymous No.56774703]

>>56774680
Chink flu wasn't a black swan? yeah ok retard

[Anonymous No.56774718]

>>56774680
>>56774703
Oh, the COVID drop? And? Literally a buying opportunity if anything like that happens again.

[Anonymous No.56774738]

>>56774718
>proves my point
you could argue the pandemic itself wasn't a black swan, but the reaction from the world's governments and the complete restructuring of the internet? Totally predictable bro

[Anonymous No.56774764]

>>56774738
I am not even sure what you are arguing here. If you want, state your point.

If it's "we could see an unexpected drop before the halving", the answer is "yea, we could, would be great."

[Anonymous No.56774787]

>>56774764
ok I'll spoon feed you dumbass
I'm saying the similar increase of 2020's bull vs 2017's bull is due to the massive influx of internet traffic and stimulus checks and bank scares influenced a lot of people to start looking at crypto. if you think things would've ended the same without COVID happening, then there's no point in even arguing

[Anonymous No.56774818]

>>56774787
Oh that trite song. There is a new one in town it goes something like "Institutional adoption", "ETFs", etc.

[Anonymous No.56774826]

>>56774818
>t. pic related
we're done here goyim

[Anonymous No.56774829]

>>56774605
screencapped

[Anonymous No.56774831]

Is anyone else getting into men after buying crypto?

[Anonymous No.56774858]

>>56774826
I guess we will see in 18 months. You would have to explain a way the cycle before last too to be convincing.

[Anonymous No.56774863]

reminder that you are low IQ scam artists and that the planet should be switching to a karma based fiat system soon, be good people and do better, or suffer accordingly

[Anonymous No.56774886]

>>56774605
Lmao delusional baggie

[Anonymous No.56774983]

>>56774100
Yeah, no.

[Anonymous No.56775309]

>>56774605
You do understand that the higher the price, the more capital is required to move the price, right?

[Anonymous No.56775531]

>>56773839
so if you guys think that the bottom is in and we're approaching an imminent ATH, will we see a large run up and then a flash dump like the corona dump before it actually reached ATH? or will we go parabolic in one run up with no crash?
if you do expect a dump before a run up, it would allow you to sell and buy back with more bags. risky, but it depends on your position of how it will play out

[Anonymous No.56775724]

>>56774457
Those are the real moon missions, not the mainstream hype. I'm tired of these BTC maxis flexing their gains but real degens know the true gains are in the low caps like NAKA, ZANO, QANX, and HILO.

[Anonymous No.56776707]

>>56773839
Hey buddy, I am with you on this but can you not go around showing this graph off? I want to be able to get off before everybody else does, and so should you right?

[Anonymous No.56776974]

>>56775531
covid happens once every 100 years.

People calling for another black swan covid crash is deluted

[Anonymous No.56777001]

>>56775309
there are literally countries backing up btc
and companies are buying it by the billions
do you think money is what btc is laking? lmao

[Anonymous No.56777028]

>>56774606
those fuckers put huge holes in my trees :(

[Anonymous No.56777098]

>>56773839
making predictions based off of historical prices doesn't work for people who play the stock market and doesn't work for crypto either. it's equivalent to astrology.

there are three kinds of people who make it big:
>people who have connections and know what to buy when(most)
>people who made a wise decision early in somethings development
>people who got lucky
you are banking on the third with bitcoin. good luck!

[Anonymous No.56777150]

>>56774457
This is the correct approach. A graph like this but showing total volume in all crypto would be more instructive. Ultimately, all crypto is within BTC's ecosystem.

[Anonymous No.56777157]

>>56774605
Based autist. Personally I agree with you and believe that we'll outperform last cycle significantly since so many bobos are convinced it's over unironically just because FTX jews manipulated down the last cycle top.

[Anonymous No.56777459]

I wonder if the last bull run was nerfed because of covid and Bankman-Fried

[Anonymous No.56777487]

>>56774337
Idk where you're pulling your fake numbers from but the returns are decreasing by ~5.3x every cycle.

[Anonymous No.56777521]

>>56777459
Are you fucking retarded? The last bull run happened because of those two explicitly.

[Anonymous No.56777526]

>>56773839
>USD pair

[Anonymous No.56777530]

>>56777521
Glowing
Bankman-Fried wasn't a thing during the last bullrun

[Anonymous No.56777542]

>>56773839
that guy is way off

[Anonymous No.56777556]

>>56773839
Yes, it could be very different.
Look at the last cycle, we did not have a big blow off top like the first and second cycle.
Instead, we got a lame ass double top, which really stunted the ATH.
We're probably just going to do 80K - 90K ATH this time, and that snail that posts here everyday will have to wait 4 more years.

[Anonymous No.56777589]

>>56777556
>4 more years.
Bitcoin will never reach $100k, it's a 1st world hopium outlet

[Anonymous No.56777596]

>>56777589
this

everyone expecting $100k is in for a big surprise I'd bet.

[Anonymous No.56777971]

>>56777459
>I wonder if the last bull run was nerfed because of covid and Bankman-Fried
It was, but your picrel is retarded. Should plot that line between the peaks on the log-log chart, not the log-linear one.

[Anonymous No.56778252]

>>56773839
>Daily reminder that the bitcoin 4 year cycle is an IQ test.
Yes, it's a sign of low intelligence to expect the same thing to happen every time forever.

[Anonymous No.56778263]

>>56777596
Yes, when it blows through 1m

[Anonymous No.56778950]

>>56774983
Where do you get these charts?

[Anonymous No.56778967]

>>56778252
>Theres no indication for things to change
>Duur it Going to change

[Anonymous No.56778989]

>>56778967
>Theres no indication for things to change
Have you been living under a rock?

[Anonymous No.56778998]

>>56778989
No but tell me what You believe are the indicators
There are literally not downs for btc right now

[Anonymous No.56779002]

>>56778989
What is the argument here?

>muh inflation, muh interest rates
We already had the shock from that and bounced back just fine
>muh upcoming recession
It already happened, they just pretended it didn't.

[Anonymous No.56779083]

>>56778998
>>56779002
It is mainly the interest rates. No, we have absolutely not "had the shock from that already". The effects of the end of free debt is going to play out over many years, if not decades. And that free debt was what fueled a lot of the crypto rally so far.
People and institutions both had lots of spare cash (or could just borrow even more for next to nothing) and looked for places to put this money, because keeping money in your bank account or other safe instruments yielded nothing. And so crypto was one of those alternative investments. Same as what caused the stock market to return way more than the economy grew over the same time period.

Today, the situation is the opposite. There is much less free cash floating around, because it is much more expensive to have debt, so people and institutions will not take out more debt if they can avoid it, and they will use any extra cash to pay down existing debt, not invest it in risky instruments like crypto.
And if they do have some spare cash they want to invest, you can get 5% returns risk free from bonds or bank accounts. Meanwhile bitcoin gives a flat 0% yield. Even if you account for the (theoretical) effect of bitcoin keeping its value better than fiat due to having less supply inflation, it will still lose out because the 5% risk-free returns on fiat is higher than the current fiat inflation. Therefore no one savvy is going to keep a lot of money in crypto in this environment. The only people left will be the cult members that have brainwashed each other into thinking it's about more than money, but that's not enough to sustain the price. Not even the halvings can help anymore because they mean less and less every time and by now its supply change is not very significant.

Over the next several years there will slowly but surely be a net outflow. The only exception might (but only might) be crypto that themselves have an innate, competitive and sustainable yield, like Ethereum when staked.

[Anonymous No.56779118]

>>56779083
Btc Gave 120% compared to last year
People are putting everything they have on Crypto money isnt a problem with btc

Theres no safer investment than btc right now

[Anonymous No.56779148]

>>56779083
>muh 5% risk-free returns
Kek. It's peanuts, Anon. The people that are risk-averse enough to prefer that aren't buying crypto anyway.
Also interest rates will probably be coming down again before 2025
>Over the next several years there will slowly but surely be a net outflow.
Oh that. Don't care. I'm out after the next bullrun. I mean what are you going to get in 2028/29 anyway? A 2x?

[Anonymous No.56779153]

I remember people saying not to Buy btc in january at 8k then it takes a dump to 6k and boast about being right lmao

[Anonymous No.56779175]

>>56779118
>Btc Gave 120% compared to last year
>People are putting everything they have on Crypto money isnt a problem with btc
I am not interested in short term fluctuations. Like I said, this will play out over several years. It doesn't matter if one of them randomly turns out positive, because that can and does happen to every asset ever, even other garbage ones.

>Theres no safer investment than btc right now
Absolutely insane claim.

>>56779148
>Kek. It's peanuts, Anon. The people that are risk-averse enough to prefer that aren't buying crypto anyway.
No, it isn't peanuts, and the very fact that you think it is shows how conditioned you've been by the unsustainable access to free debt resulting in crazy rallies over the past decade. Reality will hit you hard.
>Also interest rates will probably be coming down again before 2025
Not unless there's a recession, and that by itself will be terrible for crypto for much of the same reasons (less spare money floating around).

[Anonymous No.56779177]

>>56777589
>>56777596
These posts were written by Blackrock employees.

>>56778263
This, there is a lot of manipulation going on trying to make people sell early.
Obviously BTC real value is in the millions and i won't sell a single Bitcoin until then.

[Anonymous No.56779201]

>>56779175
>Doesnt take the 120% a year that is not only on btc but solana was 300%
>Prefers 5%
Dude you are just consevative with your money. It doesnt mean btc is doing Bad or it's going to get bad

If the dollar is fucked like some people predics that 5% is going to be null
You are taking risk like everyone else

[Anonymous No.56779207]

>>56774886
either a dollar cuck or a shiny rock stacker

[Anonymous No.56779432]

>>56779177
the amount of fed fud is insane. until crypto becomes adopted as a daily normie currency for buying gas and groceries were still in early and feds hate that they cant have their taxed slice of the pie. Btc 215k

[Anonymous No.56779472]

>>56779432
> crypto becomes adopted as a daily normie currency for buying gas and groceries

Let's assume this never happens. What do you think happens to crypto in that case?

[Anonymous No.56779492]

>>56779472
The same that is happening now?
Imagine if now that some countries accept it as currency what will happen when it's for normal use in the USA

[Anonymous No.56779643]

Oh no, btc will only 4x in one year, better buy shine rocks and sr goldberg stocks.

[Anonymous No.56779666]

>>56774370
Money worth less today than it used to

[Anonymous No.56780356]

>>56779472
its not just as simple as daily normie currency. if youre not supportive of a digital peer to peer currency that the government does not control then youre never going to make it. its never going to go away because as long as we have internet there will be a need for digital currency. did everyone suddenly forget how crypto even works? im permabull on fundamentals alone theres no technical fud that could ever get me to not use it as an investment vehicle BTC 215K

[Anonymous No.56781108]

>>56779492
You don't understand. It's not as simple as getting people to adopt it. The properties of crypto are incompatable with the demands of a nations currency.

[Anonymous No.56781160]

>>56780356
Thats a strawman. I'm not saying crypto will go away. It's valuable to criminals. You can buy drugs and porn with crypto. Scammers have been using it to steal real money through extortion or simply exploiting stupidity. Until they find a better way to rob you, crypto is king.

What I'm saying is, crypto will never become a nations currency. It is fundamentally incompatable with legitimate use cases. If you are betting on crypto replacing the US dollar well, I have some crypto to sell you ..

[Anonymous No.56781547]

>>56777459
it was nerfed because BTC was no longer necessary to buy alts
exchanges fuck BTC in 2021

[Anonymous No.56781679]

>>56777542
According to this chart which keeps getting posted, we'll see a 4x from previous ath which puts btc arounf $240k. The alt market should be pretty al dente.

[Anonymous No.56781704]

>>56773839
>speculation without value
Gambling.

Ill take your money when you need to buy something of actual value and it has inflated in price because bitcoin has replaced fiat currency.
More likely Ill win whether bitcoin replaces fiat currency or not.

[Anonymous No.56781958]

>>56777487
Go compare the chart to Binance/Coinbase. I will wait.

[Anonymous No.56782861]

... Soo, big words. Teehee, sorry > . < ". This means my icp, kava and ltc will go up very much, no? That's it?? Cuz yay! if that's the case <3

[Anonymous No.56782987]

>>56782861
crypto made faggots out of men, sad to see

[Anonymous No.56782991]

>>56782861
>>56782987
anon maybe this person is using a form of speech known as sarcasm have you thought of that

[Anonymous No.56783047]

>>56779643
Ofc, more reliable, you can always trust (((them)))

[Anonymous No.56783051]

>>56782861
Ah, the unbearable urge to kill I've felt reading this

[Anonymous No.56783141]

>>56777589
That's an interesting point of view. You really think the third/10-cent dictator world is going to be able to leverage and benefit from the collapse of the USD?

[Anonymous No.56783299]

>>56779432
>feds hate that they cant have their taxed slice of the pie
Crypto is taxable. Also the US gov is the biggest holder of BTC

[Anonymous No.56783341]

>>56774605
Based autismo, tell me which coin will 1000x.

[Anonymous No.56783518]

>>56774605
>>56774605
>>56774605

BASED
A
S
E
D

[Anonymous No.56783584]

>>56778950
Tradingview. You chart formulas

[Anonymous No.56783610]

>>56777589
>money stock doubles every decade
>fixed unit of account will never reach $number

[Anonymous No.56783629]

>>56779083
>There is much less free cash floating around
kek.

[Anonymous No.56785455]

>>56779083
>>56779175

This is what happens when you get your understanding of macro-economics and finance from tiktok

>It is mainly the interest rates.

Not necessarily, asset prices have been pretty well correlated with the level of liquidity in the financial system and this liquidity isn't exclusively dictated by interest rates. The U.S isn't the only country that exists so as much as the FED has raised interest rates and liquidity has tightened, countries like China and Japan have actually offset the liquidity drain through their own financial and economic measures therefore allowing easier money on a net level.

>we have absolutely not "had the shock from that already".

Bro it happened already, deal with it. The white house literally tried changing the definition of what a recession is last year so they didn't have to admit that the U.S was in one.

>Today, the situation is the opposite. There is much less free cash floating around

It's really not the opposite and I don't think you know what you're talking about - See >>56783629

>and they will use any extra cash to pay down existing debt

Most institutions took advantage of the "free debt" period you talk about, the last time being when interest rates were dropped to near 0% during covid, so no not really, companies aren't trying to pay down existing debt if the last time they refinanced themselves was at 0%. Even with high rates now most businesses and economies are doing fine.

[Anonymous No.56785476]

>>56785455
cont.

>you can get 5% returns risk free from bonds or bank accounts
>5% risk-free returns on fiat is higher than the current fiat inflation.

First of all, If you really believe government statistics regarding inflation or most gov. statistics for that matter I really don't think anyone can help you to paint realistic argument. Also fiat inflation and consumer price inflation are two different things. CPI is realistically closer to 10% - 15% and up not the 3% that has been reported - so ultimately you're making an overall negative return. I'd rather take a gamble on an asset class which has followed 4-year liquidity cycles pretty consistently than a guaranteed negative return on bonds.

>Over the next several years there will slowly but surely be a net outflow.

To what? A depreciating currency that is allowed to be infinitely printed from a government with $33 trillion and rising of debt - of which nearly printed 40% of it's currency in 2020 - Not to mention it's 130% debt-GDP ratio. Even with the ludicrous amount of government spending the U.S has engaged in ($10 trillion this year alone as of Q3), a year also to which congress suspended the debt-ceiling and super low tax receipts, Yellen went on to claim that the U.S could afford to fund two wars kek - If you can't see that the dollar is fucked in the long run I really don't know what to tell you.

>Not unless there's a recession, and that by itself will be terrible for crypto for much of the same reasons (less spare money floating around).

Bro central banks tend to cut rates at the signs of recessions to create easier money what are you talking about lol

[Anonymous No.56785832]

>>56781108
>>56781160
>The properties of crypto are incompatable with the demands of a nations currency.
>crypto will never become a nations currency.
like any anarchist system, bitcoin ignores borders. it’s not going to “become a nations currency.” it’s going to make national currencies obsolete.

[. No.56786317]

>>56774100
Hi Arthur

[. No.56786326]

>>56774605
What's the top for link?

[Anonymous No.56786424]

>>56774100
Correct.

[Anonymous No.56786650]

>>56774100
Incorrect

[Anonymous No.56786696]

>>56786326
$15

[. No.56786904]

>>56786696
Add a zero bruv

[Anonymous No.56787007]

Newfag here.
Why do you believe the cycles so far have been nothing more than a coincidence?
Everyone knows about crypto now and it has a bad rep due to scams, NFTs and FTX.
What other thing is there backing up a bullrun other than a loose pattern?

[Anonymous No.56787013]

>>56787007
*haven't been

[Anonymous No.56787027]

>>56787007
end of US recession and lowering of interest rates in 2024-2025.

[Anonymous No.56787189]

>>56787007
Bitcoin follows liquidity cycles which aren't a meme, are a very real tangible mover of these markets.

When liquidity raises, bitcoin acts like a black hole for it, and absorbs subsequently more liquidity at every cycle.

Normies think it's the halving, they'll get rekt this time waiting for it, because liquidity is already rising

[Anonymous No.56788842]

History does not repeat itself. Bitcoin entering a recession which it has never experienced before will only lengthen the cycle.

[Anonymous No.56788865]

>>56788842
It enters a recession every four years turbo tard

[Anonymous No.56788923]

>>56781547
now it is going to be even easier to buy alts, the exchanges are more user friendly and well as everything and everyone is getting online and on mobile...
>lay on bed with phone
>get notification from exchange app
>click the screen a couple of times
>just bought alts with digi visa/mc
It is so fucking easy compared to 2017 or even 2021... boomers and zoomers getting in without any technical understanding, they are literally just bing bang yahoo yippii digital stocks

[Anonymous No.56788945]

fundamentals will mean nothing with the mext bullrun, just look what the generative ai did to the whole fucking society, now the press is even releasing articles what is happening on instagram, tiktok etc by influencers, it is all about the buzz online
>take the digital pill anon

[Anonymous No.56788960]

what if the fundamentals will mean nothing with the mext bullrun, just look what the generative ai did to the whole fucking society, and about the society: now the press is even releasing articles what is happening on instagram, tiktok etc by influencers, it is all about what is buzzin online
>take the digital pill anon

[Anonymous No.56789018]

>>56773839
The more people expect something to happen in the market, the less likely it is that it will happen.

[Anonymous No.56790035]

>>56787007
>Why do you believe the cycles so far have[n't] been nothing more than a coincidence?
A price increase is exactly what you would expect after a reduction in supply (the halving). It would be odd for it not to happen, it isn't coincidental.

>Everyone knows about crypto now and it has a bad rep due to scams, NFTs and FTX.
It's always had a bad reputation. Didn't stop normies hating it until it peaked and then FOMOing in every time.

>>56789018
That's why we get diminishing returns. 20x last time, 5x this time.

[Anonymous No.56790060]

>>56773839
nah, we're right on schedule for another bull season. the normies are gonna lose their minds this time around tho. number go UP theory will bake their noodles. simpul as

[Anonymous No.56790124]

>>56787189
Accurate enough
Crypto is a emergency valve for fund managers to pump money into when equity multiples get too ridiculous