[ 3 / biz / cgl / ck / diy / fa / ic / jp / lit / sci / vr / vt ] [ index / top / reports ] [ become a patron ] [ status ]
2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance

View post   
File: 189 KB, 2302x1090, meme.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
56470584 No.56470584 [Reply] [Original]

The meme chart is playing out in real time and you guys are sleeping on it.

>> No.56470603
File: 2.66 MB, 426x240, 1678331983718426.webm [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
56470603

we've been over this
the only way it tanks is a liquidity shortage forcing people to sell to stay solvent. right now homebuyers and sellers are equally unmotivated.
where's the liquidity crisis?

>> No.56470611

>>56470603
when every bank folds and all the money inside disappears

>> No.56470622
File: 113 KB, 894x641, 1698094943988314.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
56470622

>>56470603
>where's the liquidity crisis?
You are living in one.

>> No.56470626

>>56470611
Cool now that we’ve gotten the retard arguments out of the way….

>>56470603
This guy is right OP, even if I don’t want him to be. Where’s inventory coming from if owners don’t want to sell and buyer’s are hurt by high prices/rates?

>> No.56470641

>>56470626
right, not like that would happen anyways with the fed bailing your kike ass out every day

>> No.56470656

>>56470641
I don’t even know what you’re trying to argue faggot. Go build a bunker and buy silver.

>> No.56470665

Doesn't account for inflation.

>> No.56470727

>>56470603
This nigger just learned the word liquidity today kek

>> No.56471464

>>56470584
At most it will go down to 2020 levels, you are mega retarded if you think we’ll get 100k levels

>> No.56471477

>>56470727
>>56470641
>>56470611
You're a dumbass

>> No.56472059
File: 24 KB, 832x524, existing home sales.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
56472059

>>56470603
>right now homebuyers and sellers are equally unmotivated

This.

Mortgage originations are the lowest since the mid-1990s. No one is interested in borrowing at 8%.

Housing inventory is the lowest it has ever been. People aren't interested in selling their house financed at 3.25%.

As a result, sales are at a 13 year low.

The only people moving the market are cash buyers (who now make up 1 in 3 sales).

The only people selling are those who didn't have cheap mortgages (Boomers and investors).

I feel like any decrease in rates at this point that increases demand will be offset by an increase in inventory from people who have wanted to sell the past 18 months but not for a loss.

Values are going to stay stagnant.

>> No.56472082

>>56472059

Your model makes sense if the economy remains stable.

>> No.56472126

>>56470584
hyper inflation incoming

>> No.56472914

>>56470584
>not normalized for square footage
Houses were smaller in the past. People now think they need at least 2500 sq ft and a three car garage for their 0 to 1 child "family".

>> No.56473084

everything is fine, you guys a so pessimistic about everything. Go out and see for yourself, the way you guys post you'd think the world was on fire

>> No.56473238

>>56470603
It's in banks which hold lots of older bonds at shit rates, and RE investment funds holding gorillions of rentals which are now yielding less than short, medium and long term treasuries. Real estate has historically performed the worst of any asset class in a high rate environment.
Prices will either come down gradually as funds unload inventory, or it will go sideways until there's a major default and crash. There will be no buy pressure in either case because banks are terrified of leveraging further at the moment so they're being ridiculous about mortgage approvals. Cheapies are for brave cash buyers only.

>> No.56474491

>>56472059
you are committing the same error as every economist who comes up with a working model for a given market operating in isolation- your narrow focus requires claiming factors as externalities when they are really directly related.

for example, if energy costs skyrocket due to an oil embargo because of the israeli war, or if more banks start failing, or any one of a number of other "black swan" scenarios play out, then the housing market could be disrupted.

basically any scenario where people need liquid assets quickly could suddenly cause a lot of people to sell houses, driving prices down sharply.

>> No.56474508

>>56473084
hahahahahah
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

>>56473238
don't forget commercial real estate! 30-40% of which is currently sitting unoccupied, draining corporate balance sheets, waiting to be offloaded.

when those leases come due, that's like a trillion dollars of assets (with loans and derivatives built on top of it) that will suddenly be leaving the market.