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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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56396794 No.56396794 [Reply] [Original]

To beat the game you need to look at it from different perspective, you need to go above the board to see it for what it really is.

In this thesis, let's look at the Bitcoin chart as 2020 covid vaccine euphoria and every leveraged scam didn't happen in 2021.
FTX and Alameda didn't poison the market with their longs without ability to liquidate, all of the scams like 3AC,Celsius,Luna didn't happen essentially ruining the chart, ruining all indicators, moving averages etc.

That money didn't exist. The chart was a mirage. In 1:1 USD to balances, everything above 30K didn't happen. Data is invalid and should not be considered because this breaks the paradigm of human knowledge about the markets. It's like counting something that didn't exist, or multiply by 0. It's like modelling Bernie Madoff's ponzi scheme when we already have the knowledge that there's no returns, we just put random numbers into Excel.

From this understanding of the board, and with all the facts about those scams that we learned about in post-mortem, we can act like time stopped November of 2020 and resumed in January of 2023.

2022 was result of this mirage of "money" that entered the market, and with Binance literally cooking the volume with their wash-trading no-fee "bonus", 2022 needs to be removed from the chart aswell.

Call me market wizard. I feel like I ascended from the board.

Failure to break 30000 decisevely in near future, will lead to old ATH test at 20000.

Failure in that leads to Covid lows and most likely new low below 3000 USD (three thousand dollars), coinciding with a wide market crash in stocks AKA new black swan which US markets are primed for considering big tech is the only thing that's keeping indexes that high. 1/2

>> No.56396818
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Considering all the above, I'm leaning Bitcoin and crypto are currently in distribution as are US tech stocks.

Value investing decade or even longer 20 year cycle is upon us.

Crypto was nothing but a derivative of 0% rates and bad actors cooking entire market on a unprecedented scale in history of markets.

At least Tulip seeds grew flowers.

Book value investing and profit earning companies will outperform everything else for YEARS to come.


>> No.56396852
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>i-its over for real this time guise!
more retarded bear cope
you missed the bottom
stay poor faggot.

>> No.56396948
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>every company with P/E above 15
>every company without net income/fcf from operations
>every company with buzzwords like AI,blockchain,scale,growth,compounder,innovation

>Book value around 1
>Net income/FCF
>Businesses that will last 20 years and are here for last 20 years

People will always drink Coke, order pizza, watch movies, build houses, buy furniture, buy tools, buy hardware.

Giant tech companies will stay but valuations are unsustainable, and just like Bitcoin/crypto, there's no more fools to buy those diminishing returns. Meta,Microsoft will eat small companies one by one, and unprofitable software will just die as a concept and will be forgotten just like after 2000's.

Nobody under 30, and hell people in their 30's don't remember nifty fifty. Nobody remembers how companies got bailed out in 2008 and chopped/rebranded into new ones.

Just like nobody will remember 1000's of crypto "projects" in 5 years. Millions of people lost their money, bad actors got billions, and all of that money should've been spent on real world innovation not on some bullshit casinos for criminals.

Seek Jesus, and seek value.

God bless and Merry Christmas.

>> No.56397096

Your argument in short form is "rates" and it gets invalidated if and when rates crater, or when liquidity is perceived as value again. I don't think those two criteria will be met for a while but it's worth bearing in mind.

>> No.56397218

FTX,3AC,Luna,Celsius level of scams are not coming back with rates at 0% with government's crackdown.

USA and EU regulations to crypto will push "the market" (which is basically Binance at the moment) to a non-existent realm.

Game is basically over, and like I stated above:

Everything from November 2020 to fall of FTX which was the final nail in the coffin on ALL crypto charts is invalid data.

To push this angle further, Binance and all the whales are using 15 > 30K from the bottom to unload those "assets" into last wave of illeterate idiots.

First the innovators, then the imitators, then the idiots.

Crypto 30,50,100x gains can't exist in fully regulated state of law, as all of the companies would have to have a legal liabity in court.

Equals they would have to be fully registered companies with balance sheet.

They are not, and never will be, therefore game is over. Meaning in near future for years to come real world assets - stocks of earning companies will outperform.

Even for companies like Meta which outperformed Bitcoin from October by a mile.

NVDA too.

Real money, real flows, fully trackable funds and fully registered companies that do something and are not only "cryptocurrencies that will go up in value".

Real companies make real money and are real change in the world, and net positive to world around us.

Space is dead. NFT's are dead, altcoins are dead, ETH is dead. Blockchain and all other buzzword scams and dead.

Good luck registering your stacking project in USA bud, good luck registering your exchange and good luck finding a bank that will provide a fiat ramp.

Eagle eye view on the board.

Everyone that will try to fight the US and EU will get Sillicon Valley treatment. Top 250 USA company that ceased to exist in 3 days.

Signature Bank in EU (Kraken fiat ramp back in the days).

Get out of your bubble, and look at the other markets.

I made my case crystal clear.

>> No.56397358

>inb4 samefagging and plebspacing
even with fully confirmed criminal activity from bad actors,unregulated market flows of Tether printing hundreds of billions of "USD", record inflation, record money printing, global pandemic(allegedly),chinese monopoly in market with 0 fees...........

Bitcoin gains from 2020 covid low are below NVDA gains 3 years later.

Peak mania on NVDA, but this company will prevail in 15 years no problem as it's generating profits,employment,entertainment,technological advance,and economic global imprint -for billions people around the world.

Bitcoin serves no other purpose than "number go up" and will be always linked to fiat currency value, because it will never be used as internet currency. Don't even dream about global currency.

Game is over. There's more cash elsewhere to be made.

And if you want to risk your capital at gambling at shitcoins, you might aswell go to a casino, same probability chance and outcome without years of stress for your mind.

Or just open a short on NVDA,Meta etc. Not financial advice.

Going to bed. Last post itt.

>> No.56397695

Sorry, OP. But I’m just buying BTC. Deal with it.

>> No.56397742

yup. next bullrun like 5-10years if people build real projects and not more ponzis like 99% of the coins thus far

bitcoin is going to 3-5k, but rlb is still going to top10 because it has the #1 revenue in all crypto. still under 15 p/e

>> No.56397787

See this is the rational man's view and I would agree with you but this is clownmarket and I'm not sure if I want to be rational this time around

>> No.56397886

1. We had all this shit before with willybot, retard.
2. If you want to control for new money, price BTC in money supply, retard.
3. The chart is still roughly following even lazy models like the rainbow chart, retard.

>> No.56397921

>FTX and Alameda didn't poison the market with their longs without ability to liquidate
Your theory is flawed from the start because SBF actually suppressed BTC prices, as his goal was to keep the price below $20k.

>> No.56398014

>Bitcoin serves no other purpose than "number go up"
yes, like gold in the 70s and 2000s

>> No.56398266

>FTX,3AC,Luna,Celsius level of scams are not coming back with rates at 0% with government's crackdown.
they all had to sell customer deposits to fund themselves. their participation in the market only displaced the 0% rate liquidity that pumped everything. they didn't cause the 21/22 pumps as much as affect what pumped. your explanation for market conditions is flawed, but your assessment of future price action is reasonable based on a condition of high rates


>> No.56398274

oops meant for

>> No.56398580

that was in oct 2022, a full year after the fraud fueled bullrun

if the price is 19k and you say "sell above 20k" it's not "conspiring to suppress prices" its literally selling for higher because you get more liquidity from selling a higher price.

>> No.56400828

>they all had to sell customer deposits to fund themselves. their participation in the market only displaced the 0% rate liquidity that pumped everything.
you skipped tether printing hundreds of billions of dollars when they all leveraged against each other, there was not trillions of dollars of traceable deposits anywhere in the system.

therefore price of Bitcoin in 2021 is literally scammers playing with monopoly money.

all charts,all crypto,all indicators - invalid.
you can't count something that doesn't exist.

>> No.56400939

>See this is the rational man's view and I would agree with you but this is clownmarket and I'm not sure if I want to be rational this time around
There is a saying that "past performance doesn't guarantee future results" and if we take into consideration everything we know about what happened in late 2020, all 2021, and aftermath of those action in 2022, whole view of crypto changes.

In full perspective - masses got brainwashed that number goes up, dollar is dead, number go up, get rich because everyone else is getting rich.

In reality, FTX,Binance etc were UNLOADING something that doesn't exist and has zero value and profits for inflated fake prices on masses turning literally nothing into those "dead dollars" and whole market was priced in those.

Daydreaming that this will happen again on a scale of Elon Musk shilling something like DogeCoin in television and other exchange buying out famous people like Matt Damon, Tom Brady and buying out stadiums is a fools errand.

People buying crypto right now and hoping that something will save them are last idiots in the market, cultists that don't see their wife is getting fucked by their leader while they are laying doped out in the corner of the room hallucinating visions of infinite returns.

OP here btw, new IP.

>> No.56401243

The SEC is about to approve a handful of Bitcoin spot ETFs. That’s going to a lot of traditional finance money getting exposure to cryptocurrencies. It’s going to set the stage for digital assets becoming the dominant way to transfer value. Markets will want more sophisticated digital assets, the Bitcoin ETF is just the beginning. This is where the RWAs narrative drive a huge amount of speculative value. And we all know who’s betting big on interoperability and RWAs.

>> No.56401441

Ofc it's you, you are the only one writing paragraphs in this thread.

1 Bitcoin = 1 House in 2025 mark my words fgt, you are trying to bring logic into a clownworld. Typical average IQ move.

>> No.56401468

most normie nigs dont understand going below 20k means we aren't coming back

>> No.56401488

and coins like hegic and 0x0 will run hard during next cycle

>> No.56401595

>That’s going to a lot of traditional finance money getting exposure to cryptocurrencies. It’s going to set the stage for digital assets becoming the dominant way to transfer value.
Those traditional finance money were trading crypto and unloading bags of unregulated tokens for years. Your whole point is that ETF will make Bitcoin go up in value ad infinitum because "people will want exposure".

The only thing that crypto is dominant in is destroying the value, and robbing people out of real world innovation as most of the tokens are solution looking for problems and not solving anything. From 2017 ICO mania to current times, there's not a single real world utilization that challenges legacy systems, as they are better, way secure, and fully regulated by international law.

Those who challenge that narrative and go all-in in crypto with their folios will get the same treatment as people who believed that Non Fungible Token were assets, and sipped from the mouths of all crypto influencers who were unloading JPG's on them for thousands,hundreds and millions of dollars.

Idiots last.
>1 Bitcoin = 1 House in 2025
There's no point in marking your words, 1BTC is actually one house in 3rd world countries as we speak. Hell you can even get some small shed in first world countries in rural areas with this money. Go mortage your house as your cult leader Michael Saylor told you to do so, and just buy BTC then. You will be new world elite just because you spent 30000$ in 2023. Guess that's the perfect example of cult member being brainwashed. People who got rich on Bitcoin were early adopters, everyone who bought from Q4 2017 is getting distributed on.

>> No.56401641

esl retard
there has never been 100bn tether circulating, never mind hundreds of billions. and nobody claimed there was trillions of dollars in crypto. if you're referring to peak marketcap, then you're clueless.

>> No.56401664

sentence is about volume and when you combine these hundreds of billions that tether printed out of thin air in matter of months in 2021, then look at what Justin Sun is doing, what Binance did to BNB you get trillions of flows.

Unaudited,untraceable,books closed held by bad actors which are leveraging those prints against their shitcoins and users real money on a scale unseen in history of the world.

Bernie Madoff looks like amateur pickpocketer comparable to this level of fraud.

Tether is not and will not ever be redeemable 1:1 to USD, as in their ToS.

Literally fraud in plain sight, and everyone participating in it know it. They just think they can get out before house of cards falls apart.

Don't try to fool me you are in in for a tech, if I would pay you millions of dollars today for your folio, you would take it and laugh about me on your way to real bank in real world, cashing out real currency.

>> No.56401691

the most tether ever in circulation was less than 100 billion

>> No.56401728

Bitcoin will be around in 50 years, likely with most activity taking place on L2s. None of the current tech companies will be around and likely neither will any of the altcoins. If you're making an appeal to long-termism I think the stock market is a really poor bet especially compared to bitcoin.

>> No.56401770

numbers were cooked and flows were in hundreds of billions of volume COMBINED in months. money that didn't exist, all exchanges. shadow flows were much higher than circulation official number.

there was great tracking of that on twitter by one schizo day by day through 2021-2022.

circulating USDT =/= leveraged flow/volume on all pairs.

and to stress this out again because you clearly can't comprehend.

COMBINED flows and volume throughout the entire show. example in January 2021 when ALL exchanges shutdown because Bitcoin was TANKING below 30000$ with no flows to elevate the price, then Tether printed billions out of thin air in a week.

Kraken,Binance,Coinbase all shut down in unison, and "bullrun" resumed. Got screenshots on my phone of that.

>Bitcoin will be around in 50 years
>None of the current tech companies will be around
lmfao. gun to my head, meta,nvda,intel,tesla will be around in 50 years no problem. CIA assets.

>> No.56401774
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forgot pic

>> No.56401840
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>People buying crypto right now and hoping that something will save them are last idiots in the market, cultists that don't see their wife is getting fucked by their leader while they are laying doped out in the corner of the room hallucinating visions of infinite returns.
>mining crypto in 2023
>stacking sats
>buying altcoins because they are good projects
>halving will pump
>etf will get us to the moon

crystal clear

>> No.56401872
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Ehhhhh I mean you could easily make the argument that the consensus now is hate on crypto since every midwit commentary channel on earth is making 30 minute videos on the dangers of crypto. Like this vid for example was posted at the literal bottom of the market and was a hit. Also what normie do you know now buys crypto? Shit is forgotten. About now. I do the opposite of what they do

>> No.56401882

>He doesn't know about chainlink

>> No.56401892

And who is the target demographic for these youtube videos? Young millennial and zoomers of course. These are the videos you watch while playing vidya or eating a meal so I think there's a general consensus that's been growing to keep as many young people risk adverse and away from these investments or alternate ways of making money. I feel like it's similar to how they fucked the economy up for millennials 15 years ago and now people under 40 make up only 6 percent of this nation's wealth.

>> No.56402243

>I do the opposite of what they do
you don't, that's why you didn't cash out 100X in 2021 in peak mania unloading doge coin and shiba on them that you bought for fraction of a cent. you still here buying "digital assets", oblivious to the long term effects of facts i presented here in this thread.
it's not 2018

>> No.56402533

If you don't understand chainlink then you are completely blind to what's happening and coming. And yes Bitcoin is a meme as it won't make enough to pay miners eventually.

>> No.56402579

You are new not an og.
Crypto only got so big because mt gox was buying btc with nonexisting money.
Every single bull run had a massive scam powering it.
It's all a scam from day 1
If a new bullrun happens, later we will learn what scam powered it behind the scenes

>> No.56402634

Ok I read the rest and I actually agree with you, except for the fact 2020 was nothing special.

The etf is a last ditch hope that boomers buy btc for some reason

>> No.56402651

>2018 link class here,average below 50 cents,unloaded 15$+
>hold these bags kid
hopped in crypto early 2017, been on chan from early 10's. wtf are you talking about kid. we all knew that crypto is a scam, we are talking about future and aftermath of the biggest ponzi the history of mankind ever seen. there's no more bullrun, because everything that happened in 2021 was the exit scam.

>> No.56402680

If it was this dead, you wouldn't spend time to write such post.

>> No.56402754
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part of research and development of strong view on the markets is to confront other people. /biz/ is still a honeypot for all the crypto scams and digital renegades. OG's lurking too, so I expect someone to actually write something with a bit of a sense itt. burgers didn't wake up yet. as of right now, my view hasn't been challenged with anything of value.

and in current times


>> No.56402786

>According to the complaint, Gemini lent funds to Genesis as part of its Earn program. These funds were ultimately lent out to counterparties including Three Arrows Capital and Alameda. When multiple bankruptcies in the space caused defaults to Genesis, it was left with a $1 billion hole. In covering up this hole, DCG claimed it had absorbed the losses when it had only made a promissory note to its subsidiary Genesis.

>The NYAG took aim at both sides, claiming there were two fraudulent schemes. For Gemini, it claimed the exchange took money from the public claiming Earn was a highly liquid investment and that Genesis was creditworthy based on Gemini's risk monitoring. For the other entities — DCG, Genesis and the two named executives — it claimed that they "disguised $1.1 billion in losses through a months-long campaign of misstatements, omissions, and concealment."

Cause for real, there ain't nothin but crooks in here

>> No.56402820
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Possibly one of the lowest IQ takes I've seen. You must be from /pol/

>> No.56402833
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Gold has faced the triple threat of demonization headwind, paper manipulation (not a threat to BTC as 'physical' settlement is cheap), and high transaction costs for physical metal, yet despite these obstacles it's still performed near perfectly as an unleveraged fiat short averaged over decades long timeframes (44x versus 42x money expansion since '71).

Economy always finds it's level.

BTC has none of those issues, it's in the process of monetization, it can't be paper manipulated, and transaction costs are negligible(in comparison to physical settlement in other hard monies), BTC will therefore track much more closely as a fiat short, and as it has yet to reach full capitalization, it will act as a LEVERAGED fiat short, a leveraged short without liquidation risk. Capital flight into BTC until full capitalization is the trade, simple as.

>> No.56402911

>BTC will therefore track much more closely as a fiat short, and as it has yet to reach full capitalization, it will act as a LEVERAGED fiat short, a leveraged short without liquidation risk. Capital flight into BTC until full capitalization is the trade, simple as.
There's probably 100's better instruments to express this trade without participating in online casino while risking global crackdown on crypto and zero ability to cash out, and by cashing out I mean cashing out to real fiat currency because clearly at the end of the vision let's say in 10 years you still will be comparing btc to dollar/euro as measure of fiat debasement.

In this example of short fiat by X, physical gold,silver,copper,jewelry looks superior because it's globally recognized for thousands of years by anyone, even kids. You can fuck off to a 3rd world country with 1KG of solid gold hidden in your coat in times of fiat distress and buy as much hard assets as you can on the spot in that scenario anywhere on the globe.

I doubt people would trade land/cows/food for bitcoin in that scenario as it's basically nothing.

Scarcity of 21 million doesn't mean something has to go up in value ad inifinitum. Even with currency debasement, there's more vehicles to express this trade easier,more secure,and more universatically.

Mindset bubble.

>> No.56402927

And no, i'm not hoarding any physical metals, but commodity supercycle with fiat debasement looks interesting in upcoming years. That doesn't equal every asset will go up in value against fiat.

>> No.56403522

Peak midwit thread, did you come from reddit or pol?

>> No.56405401
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There is no other trade even close to BTC, leveraged equities comes closest but obviously hay both liquidation risk and volatility decay, neither of which plague BTC. It's very simple, statist fucking shits will never ever stop debasing, you can't lose in the limit by betting that fiat will lose value, and BTC is the most efficient way of doing that.
>global crackdown on crypto
Dullard. World is bottom up not top down, they can no more suppress BTC than gold.
>b-but muh historical use
BTC solves money, people call it "digital gold" but even gold relied on trust in the sovereign that the coinage was of the correct purity & weight, and after redemption based currency gained traction was entirely trust-based. BTC on the other hand is truly trustless, the first trustless money to ever exist, and as such, the last money the world will ever need, a final solution to the money question. The systemic economic value of trustless money is nearly beyond comprehension. Future history will denote the past into pre & post BTC eras. Bitcoin is an inevitability.