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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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5639226 No.5639226 [Reply] [Original]

Until 2017, BTC ownership was predominantly a retail investor phenomenon, dominated by techie early adopters and some UHNWIs and family offices with connections to tech.

Then, over the course of 2017, we saw a proliferation of crypto-focused funds (still collectively only representing an estimated USD 2 – 3 billion across 119 funds). While both those groups continue to grow, we are now seeing the much larger collective firepower of mainstream hedge funds, family offices and (U)HNWIs starting to come in. This could very easily turn into a stampede for the entrance and value could very credibly gap up to at least the low-end private-sector target of USD 1.5 trillion in a matter of months, with subsequent growth to the high-end private-sector target of USD 4.7 trillion happening more slowly over the course of two or three years. The potentially rapid move to USD 1.5 trillion would imply a BTC price of USD 112,000 based on the current number of BTC (potentially relevant given the short time frame being considered) or USD 86,000 fully-diluted.

The speed with which this move, especially the first leg of it, could happen is accentuated by the fact that Bitcoin ownership is concentrated; that most Bitcoin haven’t changed hands since the price was in the double digits; and that these owners have high conviction and high long-term BTC price expectations and have already weathered tremendous volatility for years without blinking. Fewer than perhaps 1 million BTC effectively circulate at all, and any new money will be forced to compete mostly for those, so the propensity for price to gap up as new institutional money flows in is high.

>> No.5639230

>>5639226
The second step is adoption by public institutions as a store of value and as a replacement of gold and foreign fiat in countries’ international reserves. Of course, this could take a very long time, even after the private sector has embraced and accepted it. Governments move slowly. Decision processes are political. On the other hand, as soon as one government is known to have bought its first Bitcoin into its reserves, we could see a second stampede for the entrance as national treasuries around the world realise they need to diversify at least some of their reserves into Bitcoin before all their rivals do or be left at a strategic disadvantage. So here again, we could see a rapid addition to total network value of the lowend public-sector network value estimate of another USD 3.2 trillion, with that subsequently growing to the high-end target of USD 9.9 trillion (in addition to the private sector value above) over a few years.

The above scenario suggests that the price of BTC could increase by a very steep slope in the very near term as network value moves quickly to USD 1.5 trillion, then a flatter slope as private sector adoption matures towards USD 4.7 trillion and before the first adoption by countries as a component of international reserves. Then we could see another steep slope addition of USD 3.2 trillion to BTC’s network value as countries stampede to the entrance, followed by a slower slope appreciation to USD 9.9 trillion of public sector adoption.

>> No.5639335

>>5639226
>>5639230
wow, an intelligent op on biz. thank you for outlining some of the arguments behind my predication that we have only seen elliott wave 1 and are about a month out from the end of wave 2.

>> No.5639376

>>5639226
fuck (((you))) I'm selling faggot

>> No.5639430

>>5639335
So we're about to shoot up, eh?

>> No.5639493

>>5639430
if you mean "about" as in sometime between february and april, yes. keep accumulating. get some profits out of XRP in the near future. the past is likely to repeat itself

>> No.5639575

>>5639493
Well that's a sigh of relief

>> No.5639669

>>5639335
It's actually not my writing, it's from this article by an institutional investor:

https://medium.com/john-pfeffer/an-institutional-investors-take-on-cryptoassets-690421158904

>> No.5639711

>>5639669
good share. the latter targets may be a bit high, but that 100k+ one is spot on.

>> No.5639765
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5639765

I would agree with all that, if it weren't for the HUGE energy requirements this would have.

Isn't this becoming almost physically impossible to happen?

>> No.5639780

except nobody will actually adopt it, dunno why you think this time will be different