/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.563398]

rip in pieces
oil and gas industry

[Anonymous No.563402]

Seadrill dropped more than 20% in one day after suspending their dividend.

[Anonymous No.563405]

[Flippox III: Slayer of destitu(...) !hy6a44/6xc No.563409]

What?

Natural gas is down because so far December weather is mild. There is not enough evidence for it to break its major 4.53 resistance. Maybe next polar vortex it will hit 4.6/4.7, but there is a large chance for a double bottom, meaning natural gas around 3.5

Going to make 20% on this natural gas gap down, get some

[Anonymous No.563411]

No worries, OPEC are going to buffer it back up again soon. Can't have the gold fountains in Dubai run dry.

[Anonymous No.563433]

>>563411

>OPEC

[Anonymous No.563452]

Goodbye Putin

[Anonymous No.563453]

>>563398
How come fuel price in my country (Italy) hasnt gone down yet then?

[Anonymous No.563459]

>>563453
How come you arent avle to read?
Also if you understand that taxes are fixed you would know that the gas prices are going down less than the price per barrel. It has come down a fair bit already though

[Anonymous No.563462]

Crude was overbought. They are returning to mean prices.

[Anonymous No.563485]

>>563398

who holding /CL put spreads?

>got a little pos 10 contract position

[Anonymous No.563698]

>>563452
Goodbye Iran, Irak, Venezuela and probably some other countries

[Anonymous No.563702]

>>563459
Oil price is down to 70 from (over) 100, and gas went only down to 1,24 from 1,34 (€) where I live. Any explanations or further insights how the gas/oil pricing works?

[Anonymous No.563712]

>>563702
Gas is much more localized.
Those who buy it make a very long term commitment because of the required infrastructure to supply it.
You can't simply buy it from somewhere else, not replace it without very high costs.

[Anonymous No.563714]

>>563453
Our fellow gov't has seen an opportunity there, and raised taxes since oil is dipping.
What's better than a tax raise you don't notice?

[Anonymous No.563729]

How is it not incredibly obvious that the price is going to rebound. It's a finite resource for fuck sake and I personally just burned 5L of it today alone. Give my one rational argument why the price won't go back up.

[Anonymous No.563732]

>>563729
The price will go back up only when Saudi Arabia decides the oil war has ended.
See: when they finally bankrupt shale gas in the US.

[Anonymous No.563734]

>>563732

Couldn't the US gov just impose tariffs on Saudi Oil?

[Anonymous No.563739]

>>563734
Nope, I believe those would be in breach of WTO regulations.

Also, I am gonna laugh so hard tomorrow when $SDRL opens. It made -22% yesterday for suspending their dividend, what will happen tomorrow? -infinite%?

[Anonymous No.563767]

>>563485

Sold naked calls.

[Anonymous No.563772]

Is SA really going after US shale or knee capping Iran?

[Anonymous No.563783]

Reminder that with falling gas prices, gold and other PMs are likely to drop too.

Keep an eye on prices, it might be a good time soon to buy a few pieces of your favourite shiny metal.

[Anonymous No.563784]

Oil prices always fall in the second half of the year every year that there is an election in the US

Can't have the goyi..good guys realize how much they're getting fucked

[Anonymous No.563801]

>>563783

As will my solar stocks :(

At least retail stocks will rise.

[Anonymous No.563825]

>tfw Albertan

Off to the unemployment office I go

[Anonymous No.563829]

>>563825
untill next year

[Anonymous No.563878]

Anyone know of a canadian index fund that's leveraged 2x bear wise?

[Anonymous No.563889]

>>563398
The shale oil industry may end up kind for awhile but the resources aren't going anywhere. The prices will rise once the Saudis are done strangling Iran or Russia or whoever they wanted to destroy.

But it's great for the u.s. to have cheap oil. The next year is going to hopefully be fantastic if the price stays low.

[Anonymous No.563892]

>>563398

>mfw I bought 100 shares of DWTI yesterday.

[Anonymous No.563898]

>>563892
>2%

I raise you $HED.TO

[Anonymous No.563900]

>>563898
Ok I totally didn't read that right. Nice work brah

[Anonymous No.563906]

>tfw live in the heart of Marcellus shale boom.
>tfw all these new hotels and businesses lol
>tfw ghost town soon.jpg

[Anonymous No.563928]

>>563900

Holy crap at HED.TO

Maybe I shouldve gotten something with more leverage

[Anonymous No.563932]

>>563698

This is what it's about. When you look at the list of nations and where they have to be, most of them at the top are not friendly to the US/West/Arabs

The only one that we (US) are friendly with is Nigeria. The Arabs can lose money on oil for years and be fine, potentially even decades.

>>563906

You know what that means right? Cheap property.

[Anonymous No.563936]

>tfw Mexican

[Anonymous No.563940]

>>563398
>>oil prices fall

>P̶r̶o̶p̶a̶g̶a̶n̶d̶a "unbiased" news outlets paint it as a bad thing for the poor
>Urge for measures to be taken to raise prices

. . .

>>563739
>Nope, I believe those would be in breach of WTO regulations.

Isn't OPEC in breach of our anti-collusion laws? Why the fuck should we play fair

[Anonymous No.563967]

>>563409
This, buy you fucking niggers

[Anonymous No.564066]

The oil price is going to crash hard. This is just the beginning. I am so excited.

[Anonymous No.564074]

>>563932
The arabs cant lose money for even one fiscal quarter and be "fine" as theyd have to finance running the governmwnt with reserve cash immediately.

Saudi arabia has no tax base. High oil prices have kept those nations stable.

[Anonymous No.564190]

>>563932


The average rent around here for a place used to be like 4-500, now it's 9-1000. I've been waiting for property values to go up (home owner) but they haven't much.

[Anonymous No.564201]

>>563398
>implying limited resources such as oil and gas are going anywhere
How many weeks do you think till it starts coming back up?

[Anonymous No.564205]

>>563452

God I love the timing. He got into power when oil started to appreciate rapidly from its lows and took the credit for shoring up Russian economy. Now, drunk on power and feeling like a god-emperor, he started some shit in Ukraine he couldn't handle just when the oil prices began to plummet.

How do you like dem apples, you apparatchik cunt?

[Anonymous No.564285]

>work for a mid-sized US onshore operator focusing on shale gas
>got a 33% pay raise this past Monday
>swamped with work, company expanding massively
>mfw reading this

not sure what the fuck to think at the moment

[Anonymous No.564287]

>>564285

also

>our stock price is falling down to recession levels

[Anonymous No.564289]

>>564201
This. I lost a tonne on SDRL and don't know weather to wait it out or cut my losses

[Anonymous No.564294]

so buy oil stocks today or stay the fuck away? will there be a 5% rebound next week?

[Anonymous No.564333]

>>564294
No idea man, one of the stocks I was watching recovered ~3% mid day but I missed it because of class. Fuck.

[Anonymous No.564335]

>>564333
And.... there it goes again down down down :^)

[Anonymous No.564337]

>>564205
>putin started the ukraine fiasco

no.

[Anonymous No.564351]

>>564285
>tfw all those high and mighty oilfield pricks are going to get assraped economically

Get ready for fabled "slow times".

[Anonymous No.564364]

>>564205
>implying every political achievement ever isn't politicians being lucky to be on a rise of a certain asset in the rigged market-scam

[Anonymous No.564380]

seriously, what do people think is going to really happen here? people will just stop buying oil? energy industry in the US and OPEC are just going to keep pumping the fuck out of it and letting the price drop?

This will go back up, like it always does. When it does, if you're leveraged up in futures, youre going to make a shit ton.

This happened in 2009ish. It will happen again. Lowest it could possibly go is $50/bl, now i just need to decide to get into futures now or when it drops under $60

[Anonymous No.564386]

>>564333
lmfao, what makes you think you would have gotten the 3% profit, some people man.

[Anonymous No.564398]

>>564380
No one believes this will destroy the Oil industry BUT it can cause them to scale down production if it stops being as profitable as they'd like.

That's where the real pain lies.

[Anonymous No.564405]

>>564380
You do realize futures contracts have a time aspect to them. Of fucking course oil is going back up, everyone knows that. It's the WHEN that's difficult.

[Anonymous No.564416]

>>564398
The opec countries are letting the price of oil fall to wait out the shale oil and gas industry. They can do this because of the high debt in the companies operating in the shale industry. The opec countries have been doing this for a long time they have full control and know what they're doing, the price is going to drop to 60 - 55 maybe even 50, till most of the shale companies cant handle their debt, then they will decrease the production and the price of oil will go up. There are already reports of shale oil/gas companies going bankrupt already this December.

[Anonymous No.564421]

IT KEEPS CRASHENING

[Anonymous No.564422]

>>563892
1348$, pleb

[Anonymous No.564443]

So, when are you guys buying in? :3

[Anonymous No.564453]

>>563940
It's a cartel, but there is no company behind it. It's a government cartel, so, no anti-competition law to throw at that, I believe.

[Anonymous No.564470]

>>564443

If it hits $50 I'll bet the farm. Even OPEC can't keep it below fifty for too long.

[Anonymous No.564471]

So, the price of oil is at a 5 year low, which of course means oil stocks will fall signicantly in value.

What are some ways we (as mostly small time investors) can benefit from this?

I'm thinking wait a while for the oil prices to stabilize at a low, and then buy up some oil stocks and wait for Saudi America to reverse the OPEC production decision in between 1-2 years.

Thoughs/predictions, how is /biz/ responding? I hope no one was holding oil stocks.

[Anonymous No.564473]

>>564471
Well, I've had some airline stocks since Ebola. They are of course booming because of oil.

[Anonymous No.564481]

>>564471
I doubt it's even a 2 year wait. This will probably reverse in spring/summer.

I'm waiting below $60, but not sure if i'll wait as long as $50. As the other guy said, if it drops <$50 im betting the farm too.

[Anonymous No.564490]

>>564386
lmfao did I say I'd earn 3%? I try to buy at the bottom and then use a tight VTSO which usually nets me half of the profit in a day or three quarters over a week

nigger

[Anonymous No.564499]

>>563783
>Reminder that with falling gas prices, gold and other PMs are likely to drop too.

What is the basis for this assertion?

[Anonymous No.564502]

>>564386
I didn't say I'd get the full 3% jackass but it's pretty easy to tell when the buy resistance starts happening and there's a quick upturn. I'd probably get 1.5% including commissions

[Anonymous No.564503]

This is going to take at least months to resolve itself. Have you hacks even looked at the physical reserves that are being accumulated? We aren't even close to the bottom yet.

>>564470
Saudi production will remain economic far below 50$

[Anonymous No.564504]

ITT: People who know absolutely fuck all about the petroleum industry

[Anonymous No.564512]

>>564504
By all means wise anonymous stranger, enlighten us with your expertise. I assume you're an economist with a 12 inch dick and you sit on the OPEC board of members?

[Anonymous No.564513]

>>564470
you guys think vanguard energy is good for oil?

[Anonymous No.564530]

>>564504
This

[Anonymous No.564546]

>>564499
lower oil prices mean lower inflation, which means gold will drop

[Anonymous No.564552]

So what do you guys buy when looking at oil? Whats the best to invest in? Energy ETFs? Major Energy/oil companies?

[Anonymous No.564556]

>>564552
Don't buy anything oil for a while. I would by an energy focused ETF unless you have a good company already in mind

[Anonymous No.564562]

>>564556
I was going to wait, but I'm not very experienced at the Stock market, only made a few bucks here and there off a few. I just don't know if oil sells as a commodity, and how to actually purchase.

[Anonymous No.564563]

>>564562
You can purchase futures or options but if you're not advanced I would highly advise against that. Just spend a few hours or more reseraching ETF's related to oil

[Anonymous No.564571]

>>564512
>PhD in math
>300k starting
>any job he wants

[Anonymous No.564591]

What i dont understand is how such thing as oil, that we have less as time goes by, can drop in price so dramaticly

[Anonymous No.564595]

To all of you BTFDers, I just don't see it. Crude looks broken to me and its only a matter of time before some over-leveraged and under-hedged firms go under, bringing more sellers to the table. I don't see why it can't go into the 40s and under $2 at the pump in states not loaded with gas taxes.

[Anonymous No.564597]

>>564504

No. You.

>>564591

The price is determined by supply and demand. The largest producers are OPEC, generally they intentionally suppress production output to keep prices stable at whatever they want them to be. This is an intentional move on their part to make Fracking unprofitable, breaking their only competition and enabling them to take prices higher than ever before.

[Anonymous No.564607]

>>564595
That's why I plan to buy in ~3-4 months

[Anonymous No.564630]

Wow, now it makes sense why the Rockerfellers deinvested in this. How did they know? What kind of insider secret magiks is this?

[Anonymous No.564897]

>>563734
The US doesn't import much from Saudi Arabia. More than half of our oil is domestically produced and most of the rest comes from Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela. Middle Eastern oil mostly goes to Europe and Asia.

[Anonymous No.564898]

>>564597
>to make Fracking unprofitable
this actually makes sense
tnx

[Anonymous No.564920]

>this whole thread

[Anonymous No.566432]

>>563398
is it time to buy yet?

[Anonymous No.566441]

>>563398
Retard here, So more oil means cheaper products or something?

[Anonymous No.566465]

>>566441

Oil is a major component of inflation. Without exaggeration it's about 50% of the inflation statistic. So yes, cheap oil means cheaper everything.

[Anonymous No.566483]

>investing in a bear market
>trying to catch a falling knife

It's like you WANT to lose money.

[Anonymous No.566611]

>>563732
>>563906
>>564285
>>564416
Relax.

[Anonymous No.566703]

>>563932
>soon
LAND LAND LAND LAND LAND

[Anonymous No.567102]

>>564471
I bought into UCO at $24 because it was down from $40 in June.
It's $16 now.
please hold me /biz/. I was planning on holding it for a while but looking at these losses hurts my heart.

[Anonymous No.567109]

>>563936
Your day will come brother, we will execute the cartels and make forge the NAU with Canada

Burger

Poutine

Burrito

together now and forever

[Anonymous No.567114]

How many more days do you think Oil will keep falling? I'll probably short some some oil companies tomorrow

[Anonymous No.567120]

When oil hits $45/barrel and I want to load up.
What do I buy?
Is there an oil commodity etf?
Something just based on the price of oil and not oil companies.

[Anonymous No.567131]

>>567120
you're not ready.
commodities futures

[Anonymous No.567379]

Where should i invest in oil

[Anonymous No.567406]

Came to ask the same thing, where do I buy in I want to make some money on this nonsense

[Anonymous No.567408]

Okay guys we've definitely hit rock bottom now.

Buy asap

[Anonymous No.567426]

>>566465
The FED doesn't care about food and energy it only goes based on the core inflation.

[Anonymous No.567428]

>>567408
And what exactly makes you think so?
Unless you are in for the very long term, I would rather let the oil price stabilize for a bit instead of trying to catch a falling knife.

[Anonymous No.567457]

>>567426

No, the Fed targets headline inflation, but it tries to predict this using core inflation to gauge headline inflation's trend (since headline is so volatile). Technically they use core PCE, since it's even less volatile, but that's a quarterly release and so it's less useful in the near term.

[Anonymous No.567612]

What ETF to buy when I think oil prices are gonna shoot back up?

UNG United States Natural Gas Fund, LP
USO United States Oil Fund, LP
OIL iPath Exchange Traded Notes S&P GSCI Crude Oil
DBO PowerShares DB Oil Fund
UGA United States Gasoline Fund, LP

??

[Anonymous No.567617]

>>567612
>oil prices are gonna shoot back up

[Anonymous No.567680]

how hard is it to get into futures? i have the 11 or so grand laying around to cover margin and wouldnt jump in until it stabilized and looked to climb back up. anyone with any experience?

[Anonymous No.567757]

>>567680
Dont do it bro. You are gonna get killed on derivatives if you dont know what you are doing. Buy some stocks or ETFs and dont let greed be your guide.

[Anonymous No.567812]

>mfw just anticipating when oil hits its floor and I can buy back in
Gonna make that mad black dosh.

[Anonymous No.567815]

Does this mean no more petrodollar?
We petroeuro now?

[Anonymous No.567816]

>>567815
>petrodollar
>real

[Anonymous No.567827]

>>567812

>tfw no money to invest

sucks being poor, good luck fggot

[Anonymous No.567862]

>>567812

What stocks are you going to buy to capitalize on it?

[Anonymous No.567865]

This is literally ruining my life. My parents are probably going to go bankrupt and Ill loss my job. I'm kind of in shock about it I'm not even freaking out yet. Please let there be a terrorist attack or something

[Anonymous No.567869]

>>567862
I'm not entirely sure yet, I'm assuming there's going to be a lot of mergers and shit as this happens, so I'm going to stay away from dick riding anyone one stock in particular, then do my research once it bottoms out.

[Anonymous No.567870]

>>563732

I doubt that's the motivation they will lose that battle. The U.S. Economy is dynamic as fuck. We can shut it down and start it back up again before they get out of bed in the morning. In the meantime their entire nation gets fucked up because of all their other burdens. U.S. Oil companies don't have to finance the entire government.

We will win but it's going to be painful of this persists.

[Anonymous No.567871]

>>567865
hahahahahahah
>deal with it fgt

[Anonymous No.567879]

>>567869

This is pretty much the bottom I would bet. Someone do the numbers on inflation adjusted oil prices over time. All it takes is some good numbers out of China or Europe and we are back into the 80s at least.

[Anonymous No.567892]

>>564285

The company I work for is the same way. Some of it probably has to do with hedging. And some of it just the confidence that prices will return. Pretty sure the CEO of my company is on record flat out stating that if it comes to it we will "drill our way out trouble". lel

[Anonymous No.567903]

>>567879
I mean, I agree, I don't terribly expect it to go much lower, but I'm not going to jump at this point. Oil is more about geo-politics than anything else, and if OPEC wants to continue being a pain in the ass, I can see it getting to 50$ It depends on a wide range of factors really. I have no doubt oil will rebound back over 100, but I can wait a little longer.

[Anonymous No.567916]

>>567903

It is a fascinating geopolitical situation right now. The US wants to drive it lower to completely obliterate Russia, meanwhile it doesn't want it to go too low that it bankrupts US shale projects. But OPEC is the one holding the gun.

[Anonymous No.567922]

>>567457
That's exactly the point. They use the core PCE deflator which is much lower than CPI because it is mostly on the producer level.

[Anonymous No.567926]

>>567916
Eh, not really. Venezuela allegedly needs 160$ a barrel to balance its budget, and could be facing mass protests. (they don't release any financial data so its hard to tell) Nigeria needs like 120$ a barrel and is dealing with Boko Haram. 111 for Iraq. 132 for Algeria. All of those countries are currently fighting large scale insurgencies and political instability. Hard to fight a war when the troops think they won't get paid.
I'd say OPEC is holding the gun, but they're pointing it in the wrong direction.

[Anonymous No.568025]

Finally the liquid jew is coming to an end

[Anonymous No.568106]

>>563825
Have things been visibly affected yet?

[Anonymous No.568117]

>>564470
True. It's not like they're necessarily producing less, just releasing less to the markkets

[Anonymous No.568120]

>>564571
Where, I don't see any maths jobs ANYWHERE

[Anonymous No.568129]

>>567926

There is no OPEC. Its like Saudi Arabia and couple others that will actually hit their numbers. Countries like Venezuela will not cut back for the sake of the cartel.

[Anonymous No.568135]

>>568025

Top kek you realize cheap gasoline will kill the electric car right? Almost nobody will buy those glorified golf carts when they dont feel like they have to.

[Anonymous No.568141]

>>568129
Saudi Arabia isn't even going to hit their oil. They need oil in the 80's in order to balance their budget, and they have absolutely no tax base in their country. Iran isn't going to hit their numbers either. Venezuela can produce all it wants, but if oil is pegged at half of what they need, they're not going to make budget. Not that it'd matter since they barely have food on the shelves, but still.

[Anonymous No.568189]

>>567680
Wait for it to signal another new low. Observe the price action for the past month and a half and you might get the deal of a lifetime if you know what you're doing. Timing is everything.

[Anonymous No.568193]

>>568141
>saudi's need oil in the 80's

what

[Anonymous No.568195]

How long do you guys think this will last? I am it will reach $50 in 2 weeks. What could the bottom be? In 2010 it reached $35 very briefly. Could it happen again?

[Anonymous No.568196]

>>568193
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11263851/Saudis-risk-playing-with-fire-in-shale-price-showdown-as-crude-crashes.html
Its actually 98, my bad.

[Anonymous No.568197]

>>567102
Let me know when you throw in the towel and sell... that'll mean we're at or near the bottom.

[Anonymous No.568199]

>>563714
Puerto Rico?

[Anonymous No.568204]

>>568141
This isn't the first time Saudi Arabia has engaged in a oil price war. And last time not only did they won but they wrecked parts of the U.S economy in the process.

[Anonymous No.568210]

>>568204
Yeah, but they don't have the leverage they did that time. By 2018 we'll be the world leader in production, and shale is solvent well below the current price of oil. We also don't nearly have the political and social problems that OPEC currently faces.

[Anonymous No.568214]

>>566611
How do you pull a John Paulson on this market?

CDS, corporate bonds, stock price? I'm thinking that the weaker companies are probably so leveraged that if they buying the CDS and selling it back to however owns that debt at a premium price might be a good play. Same deal with bonds - the higher the risk to a default, the better. I'm not sure what happens in the event of a merger, though.

[Anonymous No.568218]

>>568196
>>568141
Ok fair enough. I'd need to see some more sources to get a good gauge of where the budget really is. But 98 is a pretty high number so we can safely assume it's under their required amount.

They have already pulled the trigger so I don't think they're going to stop until they do some serious damage to either russia or america. At least 1-2 more months before they cut back. I am 90% sure oil is going going to hit $50. Anyone think it will go lower? Not sure about that one.

From your same link it says north dakota is at a breakeven point of $42, so maybe it goes lower for a brief time but I feel it would be hard to keep it there.

There are a lot of corporate bonds out for renewal in 2015 (from the 2008 crisis). If they can't get refinanced a LOT of oil companies are going to be going under.

[Anonymous No.568219]

>>568210
Saudi Arabia's debt is a lot less than you think. They can afford to play this little war against shale companies if they need to. Plus this will dent their direct opponents in the region since they're being financed by Russia. Two for one.

[Anonymous No.568222]

>>567131
I asked for an etf. I'm not playing with contacts.

[Anonymous No.568225]

>>568222
Contracts, damn phone.

[Anonymous No.568233]

>>568219
Well yeah they don't have much debt. The problem they have is that they have absolutely no tax base, and they spend well above that. In terms of credit and solvency for a country, that's rather bad. Yeah I don't disagree they'd dent their direct opponents, but they won't beat shale. Shale is solvent at 50 a barrel, and I see no way that Saudi Arabia would allow that.
>>568218
I don't think it'll even hit 50 to be honest, its just not worth it for Saudi Arabia, since if they want to try to drive shale out they'd have to keep on the gas for a little while. Granted they might wanna play a game of Russian Roulette with it, but I certainly wouldn't. I feel like we're going to see what happened last time around and have mergers and buyouts with the oil companies.

[Anonymous No.568243]

>>568233
Several highly respected analysts and oil CEO's have admitted it could hit 40, 50 is a rather generous bottom

[Anonymous No.568246]

>>568243
I'm thinking more from a political standpoint I suppose, but I just don't see the benefit Saudi Arabia would get, they're doing this too late. They might drive a few shale minors out, but they won't handicap its share out of the market like they want to.

[Anonymous No.568251]

>>568246
You're forgetting that Saudi Arabia is in USA's pocket. Corruption will always win. Socialise losses privatize gains. It's not a war against the US it's another sanction against Russia to get them out of Ukraine so they can have access to the pipelines again.

[Anonymous No.568254]

>>568251
I don't have nearly that much faith in our political sway in Saudi Arabia. They have never really cared for what we thought in the past.

[Anonymous No.568260]

>>568233
You're underestimating the impact that small fry going bankrupt could have in the energy market. It's leveraged and most of its liquidity would be drained from the market if it would go bust. It could trigger a small energy market default enough to damage the US' GDP.

[Anonymous No.568261]

>>568141

I dont understand the math here. If their producing more is causing the price to go down they should still be making more money.

[Anonymous No.568262]

>>568225
Why people fear so much contracts?

[Anonymous No.568271]

>>568261
They aren't making more, we are.
>>568260
I mean sure, you can be doom and gloom about it, but I find it rather unlikely. I think the estimate is at 15% of junk debt is in the oil sector, and most shale companies don't have a high risk of going under due to their flexibility. Most of the debt is incurred up front when the initial fracking occurs, and once an operation is in place it isn't very expensive to run. I can't say I see any minors going under unless the Saudi's REALLY want them out and want to bleed for it. Even then the Bakken field is turning a profit at 42. They have a long way to go in order to dig into that.

[Anonymous No.568274]

>>568261
it depends on how much supply/demand/price are affected really

but yes you are right it isn't all bad since they're selling more, but the margins will eventually mean they are making MIUCH less, especially if it hits 50 or lower

[Anonymous No.568275]

>>568262
Because they can expire and you lose everything.

[Anonymous No.568281]

>>568275
I thought they were sold (or brought) at the time the contract expired?

[Anonymous No.568284]

>>568275
You're thinking options

[Anonymous No.568286]

>>568284
Ok, so if I want to buy WTI at $40 and hold until the oil hits $100, then what is my best option.

[Anonymous No.568289]

Now I will be able to run as much boost as I can without worrying that the compressor is figuratively forcing 18PSI of dollar bills straight into the intake manifold.

[Anonymous No.568302]

>>568289
>where board

[Anonymous No.568316]

>>568286
Do you see oil rising in 6 months? Then a 6month option. Or you can be an oil etf. Am I going to google one for you myself? No, go fuck yourself

[Anonymous No.568325]

>>568316
I don't know when it is gonna rise, but I know it is going to. That's why contracts a shit.

[Anonymous No.568332]

>>568325
Then just liquidate the position when it hits a high and buy another contract at low. If you study the market a bit, you can usually spot the timing for these operations.

Or am I missing something?

[Anonymous No.568333]

>>568325
Ok but the money you mighjt not make in a contract you'll still lose by having your money sitting idly in a fund. You would triple your gains in an options contract even if it takes 9 months (you can cash it in any time)

So do what the fuck you want i guess :^0

[Anonymous No.568396]

Brent is holding steady at $72, WTI is at $68.49

Where do we go from here?

[Anonymous No.568401]

>>568396
It's okay. Wait for it to drop down to 38 or 23.

[Anonymous No.568402]

>>567816
Why is it not real? Just honestly curious.

[Anonymous No.568416]

I got a little curious about futures and options (but I'll skip the last one since I found that to be extremely confusing) and I decided to look it up. This is what I read:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/02/110602.asp

I thought about doing a little exercise based on the information in that article in regards to oil and gold prices (you'll have to excuse me for that last one but I couldn't help it):

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude_quotes_volume_voi.html

According to this, oil open interest and volume has increased a lot in JAN15 and prices being negotiated don't seem to surpass the 6X$ range. Assuming that trend continues, I believe this signals another new low before the end of the year.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold.html
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_quotes_volume_voi.html?venue=F

Similarly, doing the same for gold you reach the exact opposite conclusion: open interest and volume spike up in FEB15 and prices seem to be fairly high - assuming that the recent uptrending remains it should signal a bull trending in the future.

Is this a proper analysis of the future markets and its indicators (notwithstanding any other things I might have missed out)?

[Anonymous No.568573]

>>568396

You see that line it's making? That's buy support. Once that buy support is eaten up the sellers will freefall again. By how much? Nobody knows.

[Anonymous No.568575]

>ranting and raving over a crash you had no position in
>not buying all time lows
>not hedging against alt energy

[Anonymous No.568580]

>>568573
That's a 5 minute chart. Not even justifiable.

[Anonymous No.568585]

>>568573
It's not just the fact that everyone that matters is asleep, and there's no volume?

[Anonymous No.568588]

>>568416
Pretty interesting. Now I'm not a derivatives guy so I really don't know more than you, but I believe that it is normal to hedge regular positions with these contacts, which can be easily cancelled or sold off again.

[Anonymous No.568647]

>>568251
I disagree, this is an opinion that's been talked about but I doubt Saudi Arabia would risk an uprising from huge loss of national income because the US told them to so they could sanction Russia. Over a problem no one really cares about anyway.

Besides, Saudi is only one member of OPEC so it's clear that this is a decision aimed for the greater benefit of all OPEC members, not a decision that is politically motivated for the benefit of the US.

[Anonymous No.568721]

Autist here
Oil is going to rebound like a motherfucker
Get it while you can, that shit's going back up to 100 within a month or two

[Anonymous No.568764]

>>568573
You're getting people to bet at the wrong timing. Do not give people bad advise. This is not the fucking price action for oil as of latest weeks.

The only time when you want to get on oil - and this is important you need to be following the news to not get caught with your pants on your hand - is when it presses the new lows AGAIN. This is ALWAYS, ALWAYS the point when price free falls. Until it price is anywhere near $64 it will not break down - it will bounce up and down and you risk finding yourself in a position where you potentially lose more than you risk to gain.

>>568721
That's unlikely. There's little demand from Europe or China due to slower growth plus there are some geo-political and economical wars in the long-run. Price will come around but I believe it might take as much as a year. The first sign - at least as I see it - is when the impact becomes clear on US' GDP (because mah inflation).

[Anonymous No.568792]

>>564285
I tried applying this year during headhunting season at our university. Tried with shell, chevron, and exxon, with 6 years of research experience. They only took one person from our department this year, and it was the absolute smartest person there, with three internships under his belt. The rest of us were promptly rejected. One of my coworkers whose dad is in the business says that oil companies aren't hiring. What's the news with natural gas companies? Someone please tell me some good news.

[Anonymous No.568807]

>>568792

Its always like that with the majors I had a 3.8 GPA and multiple internships, only got an interview with chevron and no job offer. The independents are better to work for anyway even if slightly less pay.

Also most companies budgeted before the downturn so it's not going to affect anything yet. If you tell your investors you're going to drill x number of wells and you've leased the land and made an agreement with the drilling company you're going to drill the wells even if it's at a loss.

[Anonymous No.568810]

To quote James May

Its back to carpets for you!

[Anonymous No.568830]

>>568807
I haven't looked much at smaller companies. I heard devon is pretty good. Any others I should look into?

[Anonymous No.568838]

>>568830

Devon Apache Pioneer EOG OXY etc all are in that arena, I wouldn't call them small though.

[Anonymous No.568842]

>>568838
Thanks, broski. I'll look them up.

[Anonymous No.568922]

>>568721

It will go back up obviously, just not in the next few months.

[Anonymous No.568930]

>>563402

Is it time to invest?

[Anonymous No.568933]

>>568930
Do you want to short or buy?

[Anonymous No.568938]

>>568933
Buy. Everyone who talks about shorting seems to be talking about it only after it's too late. Is there really MORE shorting to be done?

[Anonymous No.568940]

>>568938
Yes, there is. If you want to buy, find the total debt/enterprise value (D/EV) ratio of it. Anything more than 65% is a red flag. About 55% might be okay and below that value should be fine. Just don't expect to see any money flowing in for months or maybe even years.

[Anon No.568948]

>>563398
Who made bank off DTO today?

[Anonymous No.569021]

>>568940
so what you're saying is don't buy because stocks aren't going up any more for months.
>>568948
I was up 5% from closed positions but then fucked up big time by getting emotional and not sticking to my system and now I only earned 2%

oh well, chalk it up to inexperience and a lesson to be learned.

oh well

[Anonymous No.569025]

>>563411
do you even 1980s

[Anonymous No.569026]

Easing even lower today, no sharp moves either direction yet

[Anonymous No.569027]

>>563453
It won't go down because here in Italy 60% of the price of gas is due to taxes, while in America it's only 20%. It's also due to how expansive our distribution line is(the most inefficient and ramified in EU). Most of the gas stations are private owned so there's also that

[Anonymous No.569028]

>>569021
Still profits no less

[Anonymous No.569058]

>>569021
Actually you should buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying for a long-term strategy. You just need to have a clue about what you're doing and studying the companies you're investing in.

If you're just going for short-gains (and I mean daily or weekly) study the price action of oil for the past month and a half and develop a good system to minimize losses. Assuming oil is going to maintain this "behavior" and you know when to enter and exit, you can cash out up to 100%-50% in a month. Just be careful about what it - all it takes is a swing from OPEC to turn the tide.

[Anonymous No.569095]

>>569028
True enough man I'm pretty hard on myself

Thanks!

>>569058
Yeah I know I should time the trades for the big swings but I kept second guessing myself and overtraded. I've been trading leveraged funds but I think I might start doing individual companies because the spread/liquidity hurts my trading strategy

[Anonymous No.569126]

>>569026
I'm not sure I'd call 2.5 in WTI easing. Not necessarily sharp, but its a definite slide in one direction.

[Anonymous No.570585]

>prices still slipping

....

[Anonymous No.570957]

>>563452
I'm guessing you missed north korea somehow? Or Cuba, for that matter. Or Iran. Or...