was there anyone who "got it right"?

[Anonymous No.56295234]

on a macro sense:
>Mortgage rates went from 2% to 8.5% but housing prices just paused and now are back to ATH again
>Fed raised rates from 0% to 5% and nothing broke/no one cared
Almost everyone, and I consider myself a wide surveyor of opinions, that is a "financial voice" of some sort got these incorrect. I remember when it was popular to predict at 1.75% Fed funds rate something would "break" and they would have to restart QE.

[Anonymous No.56295253]

>>56295234
Yeah, we all got that wrong. According to the mathematics, it would likely have worked out this way, but people neglected that both central banks as well as home-sellers are adversarial players and thus would have an incentive to hide such an outcome. However, try calculating
>median home-price * trading-volume
instead. You can hide price-decreases, but not volume times price, except through wash-trading. But it's harder to wash-trade houses than stocks.

[Anonymous No.56295288]

I actually did yes. Got my house for $210k in 2017 and refinanced at 2% in 2019 or so. My mortgage is $1k/mo, it fucking rules.

[Anonymous No.56295292]

It's easy to miss but the primary reason to own a home is to have a roof over your head, not as a money making investment. If the house is still serving that peruse people have no reason to sell. It's not an asset that you just have on your fidelity account where if you want to sell your APPL for Tesla its a few clicks and you're done, it's literally where you live and if you want to sell it it can take months and involve realtors and a bunch of fees.

[Anonymous No.56295311]

>>56295234
The Bitcoin top was also the mortgage rate low, it was pretty obvious what you were supposed to do when that happened

[Anonymous No.56295337]

>>56295234
>>56295234
They're forcing a stock market correction, freezing the real estate market, and reigning in all that "free" pandemic relief simultaneously. The only way out of this is to win a war. Also Bidens still draining our national oil reserves so at some point it'll be funny watching Democrats do mental gymnastics to convince their base we've gotta loosen restrictions on domestic oil suppliers as it will become "an issue of national security". Boomers will also keep bailing their kids out so it looks like my days off bobo posting are over until the 2030s.

[Anonymous No.56295396]

I did a good job of dumping crypto at the top. I did not do a good job of dumping the rest because I really underestimated how stinky things would get with 3ac and then ftx blowing up. I also should have gotten a mortgage in the last few years. Like I can be a mostly cash buyer on decent houses near me but that's a lot of money to tie up. Womp womp.

[Anonymous No.56295577]

>>56295288
Noice

[Anonymous No.56295822]

>>56295234
People have all forgotten that as we entered 2020 the expectation since October of 2019 was that there was going to be recession that all markets were hot and were due for correction.
Then the cornteen came in and we all saw a sudden boom in economic activity.
I managed to buy a place to live for 75k with a 2.05% 30 year mortgage and I thought well things will be ok.
In 2022 I took my mom to the store and remember there being people literally standing in front of the pallet of cooking oil staring at the price of oil having more than doubled making 1 liter of cooking oil over 3 euros or something. And as I saw inflation raising its head I knew interest rates would go up by a lot. I expected double digits volker style rise.
But they never came, in the mean time 90% of mortgages in my country are ARM. Almost everyone I know is truly struggling. I don't know what will happen in the future because even if a financial melt down were to happen tomorrow, real estate is still hot and booming even when practicly no one can afford to buy a home in most if not all of Europe and major US cities. Now most everyone in Europe can't even rent because theres no supply plus rents are at or above average wages. No signs of slowing down COL even if food inflation is stable.
It feels somehow like a tsunami of financial crisis possible in the future, a major deflationary crisis because people can't afford to do or buy anything.

[Anonymous No.56296400]

>>56295288
I inherited my home in February 2020. Totally paid off, and has now doubled in value. Pretty insane. With barely any expenses I've managed to save 150k since 2020. Very close to a millionaire not even including equity in the equation.

[Anonymous No.56298513]

Shameless bump

[Anonymous No.56298830]

Mortgage rate locked for 15y @ 1,29% sold shitcoins halfway through the drop for a 4x
otherwise mostly wrong, should buy a bigger house and go absolutely on the brink with a mrotgage, instead shat pants